Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271145 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR w/ low -RA potential.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR with north flow is expected to
continue over the next 18-24 hours. Radar imagery this morning
indicated some light echoes out across the Big Country ahead of a
subtle upper trough. This activity will slide eastward, but with
the dry air in place at both mid and low levels, it`s likely that
Metroplex TAF sites will remain mostly precipitation-free. That
being said, I will not rule out a brief period or two of -RA this
morning with perhaps some minor impacts to western
arrival/departure gates. Other impacts to aviation should be
negligible. Continued north winds will usher in drier air which
should further erode the pesky stratus deck. High pressure will
settle in across the region and mostly clear conditions can be
expected tonight with winds becoming light and westerly.


For the Waco TAF site---Mostly cloudy conditions will continue
through the day as the intrusion of dry air is not expected until
late this afternoon. Ceilings, however, are expected to remain
VFR. There is a chance for a brief period or two of -RA this
morning given the remnant low level moisture across Central TX.
That being stated, the overall coverage of -RA remains too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Light north winds are expected to
continue throughout the TAF cycle with speeds generally less than
8-10 knots.

24-Bain

&&


.SHORT TERM(Through Thursday)...
North-Central Texas will remain just south of a deformation zone
aloft between the retreating Baja Peninsula upper low and the
longwave trough over the Mississippi/Ohio valleys today. In the
lower levels, the 925-850mb frontal boundary will remained draped
over our Central Texas counties into early this afternoon. The
RAP/HRRR progs seem to have the best handle with the stubborn low
level moisture on the 295K-305K theta surfaces continuing along
and south of I-20.

Clearing will be slower to occur than originally thought, though
areas of north of the I-20 corridor should see only scattered-
broken high clouds by early afternoon, with conditions improving
more by this evening. There is a weak shortwave that is expected
to lift out of West Texas and shear out over our southern counties
today. However, associated ascent appears negligible due to said
shearing into the deformation area overhead. I will hold onto to
the mention of a few sprinkles through midday south of I-20, but
do not expect any impacts or accumulations from the expected weak
activity. Lingering cloud cover, especially across areas south of
I-20 and only neutral thermal advection just above the surface
today will hold afternoon highs in the 70s across much of the CWA,
outside of a few readings warming to around 80 or in the lower 80s
along the Red River Valley and across the far northeast counties.

The north-south drying process will be gradual, but progressive
tonight with clearing skies, as flow aloft veers NW with an upper
ridge steepening to our west. The NW flow aloft will help support
a more progressive entrainment of low level dry air into the area.
Despite high soil moisture values and weakening N-NW winds
overnight, it appears the near surface layer will be too dry for
fog development, outside of some light spotty ground fog possibly
in low-lying rural areas early Wednesday morning. I don`t believe
it will last long or have any impacts to travel to mention in the
late night/Wednesday morning forecast.

Otherwise, mostly sunny, dry, and pleasant early Fall conditions
will be present Wednesday into Thursday with surface high pressure
settling across the area. Lows will cool to between 55 and 60
degrees each morning, so a light jacket may be necessary. A
secondary push of cooler air arrives by early Thursday morning, as
NW flow aloft steepens over the Mississippi Valley. Highs
Wednesday will warm into the 80s, then settle into the 70s on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM(Friday into next week)...
It will remain dry Friday through the weekend, as the low level
surface ridge shifts slowly east of the area. Mornings will start
off cool in the 50s, with highs in the 70s again Friday. The
return of low level southerly flow this coming weekend will allow
for a gradual warm up back into the 80s, with weak ridging in the
mid levels steepens over West Texas. Southerly flow and low level
dew points gradually increase early next week, but still seasonably
pleasant with lows rising back into the lower and mid 60s with highs
in the mid 80s. No precipitation is expected over the next 7 days,
but it does appear a system and cold front may arrive in the mid-
late week time frame that`s beyond the current forecast. This system
will give us our next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  61  86  62  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  58  86  60  82 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               82  57  86  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              79  55  85  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79  55  85  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  62  87  62  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79  57  85  60  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79  60  85  61  81 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              77  59  86  60  83 /  10   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78  54  85  57  78 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/05


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