Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 062003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONE FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NORTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS A TROUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT
WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PAN HANDLE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THIS CREATES A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS MOISTURE
REACHES ALL THE WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTH TEXAS AND
CAN BE SEEN ON THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING.

TODAY THERE IS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE TROUGH BUILDS
SOUTH...AND MOVES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH.
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACT IT
HAS ON NORTH TEXAS. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS...THE FRONT
WILL MOST LIKELY STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THIS
IS DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAVING ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MORE ON ITS WAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOODING WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FOR THOSE DAYS DUE TO EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION.

BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTER WILL RETURN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AND 10 TO 15 MPH.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 113 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WHEN THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL
RESULT IN THE LOSS OF DEEP MIXING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR
CIGS BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED TO A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON
TUESDAY...AND WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS IS KEY TO WHERE THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINE UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL
NORTHWEST OF ALL DFW AREA TAF SITES...SO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  92  78  92  76 /  10  10  20  20   5
WACO, TX              76  91  76  92  74 /   5  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  90  75  89  74 /   5  20  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            77  91  75  89  74 /  10  20  30  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  91  76  90  74 /  10  10  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            79  94  78  92  76 /  10  10  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           75  91  75  92  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  92  75  92  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            77  91  76  92  74 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  90  73  89  73 /  10  20  40  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/78


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.