Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042125
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES STARTED MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WITHIN THE PAST 2 HOURS. AT 3 PM...THE FREEZING LINE WAS
NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DECATUR TO ABILENE AND WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS THE FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FREEZING LINE REACHES EACH LOCATION WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SLEET AFTER THAT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL HOLD ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...SO MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING. BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.

THE RAIN AND WINTRY MIX WILL NOT BE CONSTANT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LARGE BREAK IS SORT
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTIVE POCKETS OF SLEET AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ALL
AREAS. WHERE CONVECTIVE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS IS WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMS OF SLEET AND/OR ICE...AND THUS THE
HIGHEST IMPACTS. THEREFORE...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT NOT EVERYONE
IN THE WARNING WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA....BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IS THE MAIN
REASON FOR SUCH A BROAD WARNING.

PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LAMPASAS TO WACO TO
ATHENS WERE CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...AND
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED ACROSS THE REGION. NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET
TO OCCUR ALONG OR NEAR A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO ENNIS TO
COOPER. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE
FREEZING RAIN WHICH WAS THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE TO A WARNING
ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AS MUCH ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW AS
WAS FORECAST 12 HOURS AGO...BUT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO
TRAVEL...CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THESE COUNTIES. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...IT
IS LIKELY PARTS OF THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE NOON
EXPIRATION TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY MIX...WE ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS TO
CONTEND WITH. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY WILL THE STRONG WIND
PROVIDE A HAZARDOUS ELEMENT AGAINST ICE COATED SURFACES SUCH AS
POWER LINES...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
20S.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE SUN FINALLY SHOWS IN THE SKY...BUT STAY IN THE 30S. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL BARELY REACH FREEZING WHERE LARGER
AMOUNTS OF SLEET/ICE OCCUR. BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND CLEARING SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MELTING OF THE
ICE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY WATER/ICE STILL ON THE ROADS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL REFREEZE AS TEMPS PLUMMET INTO
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MUCH QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT DUE
TO DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE
SUBSEQUENT DURATION AND AMOUNTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

AT 18Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER...MOVING
STEADILY SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE DFW AREA AROUND 6 PM/00Z. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME (LIKELY LIGHTER THAN IT IS NOW)
AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE. PLACED -FZRA IN THE
TAF AFTER 00Z AS A RESULT.

AS THE COLD AIR GETS DEEPER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET. LIGHT SLEET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 4 TO
5 HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER INTENSITY THUNDERSLEET MIXED IN.
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSLEET IN THE DFW AREA APPEARS TO
BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO PLACED THUNDERSLEET IN THE FORECAST FROM 05-07Z.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

WHENEVER THUNDERSLEET OCCURS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BULK
OF THE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SLEET
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DFW AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY LIKELY
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSLEET THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY. COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW IN THE 2-3 AM TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY THAT TIME AS WELL. WENT AHEAD
WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 2 AM IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
NOON ON THURSDAY. ANY SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE ROAD OR RUNWAYS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  26  36  24  42  31 / 100  10   0   0   5
WACO, TX              30  36  22  44  28 / 100  30   5   0  10
PARIS, TX             25  36  20  40  26 / 100  10   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            24  35  19  43  27 / 100  10   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          26  36  20  41  26 / 100  10   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            27  36  25  43  31 / 100  10   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           28  34  21  42  27 / 100  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         31  36  25  43  30 / 100  30   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            30  37  23  45  30 / 100  50   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     24  36  19  44  28 / 100  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-
103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ135-146-156>159.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115.


&&

$$

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