Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 221101 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. AS OF 11Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KDAL TO JUST WEST OF
KACT. THE STRATUS AT SHOULD SCATTER AT KACT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAF SITES 12Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
BE 5000-6000 FEET.

THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD...IS THE WINDS TODAY.
EXPECT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 200 DEGREES AT 12Z...TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 15Z...AND NORTHWEST BY 20-21Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BY 00Z AND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
WHEN ARE WE GONNA SEE THE SUN? THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR MOST ASKED
QUESTIONS LATELY...AND I THINK IT WILL BE TODAY. SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ALREADY ERODED THE LOW CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS
FORT WORTH AND ALL AREAS SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY BLOCK THE SUN.
WINDS WILL VEER WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND QPF CONSEQUENTLY LOW. TUESDAY MORNING...A
FEW MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO MAKE A
FEW FLURRIES IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FT...AND THE MID LAYERS ARE DRYING AS
WELL SO THE CHANCE OF ANY FLURRIES SEEMS LOW. HAVE NOT ADDED THEM
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE IF THEY OCCUR THEY WILL NOT ACCUMULATE
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THEY MAY PROVIDE VISUAL
INTEREST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH THE NORTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX POSSIBLY DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW
32. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY PLUS SUN AND DRY AIR WILL
PROVIDE A RAPID WARM UP AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S. THE DRY
AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER
CONDITIONS...SO OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD POSSIBLY BE DELAYED FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING
A STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES IN FUTURE RUNS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON
DAY 10 THAT COULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES AT PRECIP NEXT WEEK. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  45  53  36  49 /   5  10  30   5   0
WACO, TX              68  45  54  36  52 /   5  10  30   5   0
PARIS, TX             61  43  53  35  46 /  10  10  40  10   0
DENTON, TX            63  42  53  35  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          63  43  52  35  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
DALLAS, TX            64  46  53  37  49 /   5  10  30   5   0
TERRELL, TX           64  46  54  36  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         67  47  54  36  50 /   5  10  30   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  46  54  35  52 /   5  10  30   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  41  51  33  50 /   5  30  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.