Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF NM
LATER THIS EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TERMINALS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO LEFT
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...CHANCE OF POP-UP
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER EXACT CHANCE OF A TSTM AFFECTING A TERMINAL IS LOW.
WILL ADDRESS POP-UP STORMS WITH TEMPO AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  66  96 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         66  93  68  97 /  60  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     67  93  69  97 /  60  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  70  98 /  50  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  95  72  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  97  69  99 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  98  74 102 /  60  20   0   0
SPUR          69  96  72 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  75 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74


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