Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1157 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

The hot, dry, and breezy pattern will persist through Saturday,
with only a slight drop in temperatures each day owing to very
gradual height falls. An upper level low pressure system was
gathering near Farewell Bend, Oregon across the Snake from Weiser,
Idaho, and will translate to near Pocatello late Friday. This
will retain a moderate height and surface pressure gradient across
the area allowing dry downslope breezes again Friday and for that
matter Saturday as the low/upper trough swings across northern
Colorado. A very weak outflow-aided shove of cooler northerly
surface air will move into or close to our northeast corner by
daybreak Friday before mixing out in the hot, dry air during the
afternoon. Solutions currently have backed off on a similar shove
early Saturday, awaiting a stronger cold frontal push southward
Saturday night that still looks on track as the upper trough
swings by to the north.

The airmass in advance of that cold front will be exceedingly
dry, though we may see an improvement in dewpoints right into our
southeast corner early Sunday. Not impossible therefore for a few
thunderstorms to develop near or more likely just south of our
area along and behind the front around daybreak early Sunday
morning. Otherwise, Sunday will feature much cooler and breezy
north to northeast winds tapering off during the afternoon;
temperatures settling slightly below normal. Dewpoints will
initially be elevated behind the front and we could also see at
least patches of low clouds briefly behind the front before drier
air prevails. A cooler surface ridge will also settle over us
Monday with thunder chances likely holding south of the area near
the frontal zone; we have trimmed thunder chances a little more
Monday night and Tuesday given the slower moisture returns
trending with recent GFS and ECMWF runs.

We think there very well could be a valid opportunity for thunder
by the middle and end of next week, as upper flow weakens and
moisture retention improves. Also, the old front will wash out
with a weak warm front Tuesday and we should remain relatively
moist from then into Wednesday and perhaps beyond. Aloft, it
appears a weak and dirty upper ridge axis will be migrating once
more our direction though with interjection of Pacific energy and
moisture helping to further weaken this ridge. This could even
lead to a broad, weak upper trough over us by late week. We have
lowered below the ensemble blended thunder chances during this
period, but retained a chance of thunder at least for now, until
we can latch onto confident timing of a lifting mechanism.




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