Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 192109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
309 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017


Expected breezy conditions have developed across the region this
afternoon with several West Texas Mesonet sites gusting to between
40 to 50 MPH.  Sustained speeds remain in the 20 to 30 mph range out
of the west and expect to see these decrease rapidly after sunset.
High clouds are on the increase ahead of the next trough currently
crossing the Sierra Nevada mountain range into the Intermountain
West.  Low temperatures will be fairly close to what we saw last
night as increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling and
wind will remain out of the west with speeds 10 to 15 mph helping to
keep the boundary layer mixed.  Forecast soundings for the Rolling
Plains shows that we shouldn`t see any low clouds or fog even though
wind will become light and variable for a few hours after sunset.

The western trough will continue to move east at a good clip and
trough axis will move over the area through the day Friday.  Models
are in good agreement that the tightest height gradient and thus
strongest winds will be just north of the forecast area so we should
see wind speeds the same or a bit lower than today.  The passage of
the trough will also bring a weak pacific front across the area that
will bring high temperatures down a few degrees from today. Frontal
passage will also be dry as little to no low-level moisture will be



Saturday will see the approach of our next upper-level trough. LLJ will
keep surface winds elevated during the morning hours. However, as
the main energy of the trough begins to enter the area midday, the
main wind max looks to shift just south of the forecast area. Yes,
winds over the FA at H700 will range from 40 to 50 KT and H850 in
the 35 to 45 KT range for Saturday, but mixing to the surface may
be limited due to cloud cover from the transit of the upper-level
low. Therefore, went slightly below guidance for winds on
Saturday. As for precipitation chances, models continue to waver
on a solid solution for producing widespread precipitation
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The mid to upper levels
continue to look well saturated, but a dry surface layer is still
presenting itself as a mitigating factor to us receiving much, if
any, precipitation. Winds will stay elevated through the passage
of a cold front on Sunday but finally calm late day and overnight,
for once, as upper- level ridging builds in. A shortwave on Monday
may elevate winds slightly, but Tuesday returns to windy status as
a potent upper- level low sweeps across the Central Plains. Models
drag the wind max at H700 and H850 across the forecast area, and
with mostly clear skies, mixing to the surface should be fairly
easy. With model uncertainty on the track and strength of this
system, chose to go slightly below guidance on winds for Tuesday.




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