Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 220419
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1119 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We`re starting to see the early signs of a weather change this
evening, as we turn our eyes toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
Radar showed some showers near the Mississippi River, snaking up
toward the Memphis area. Higher surface dew points, in the lower
60s were just west of the Tennessee River. Meanwhile, we continued
to enjoy dry weather, and as of this evening were still holding on
to dew points in the 50s.

Expect light winds to hold for much of the night over at least the
western half of our forecast area overnight, which means
temperatures probably won`t fall much more than another 4 to 6
degrees for the rest of the night. Eastern areas, where light
winds will be a bit later picking up, may see a more variable
pattern of low temperatures, with sheltered valleys seeing lows in
the middle and upper 40s, ranging to the lower and middle 50s
where a 2 to 3 kt wind kicks in.

Adjusted overnight grids to reflect most recent trends. However,
the overall change, especially regarding min temps, was quite
slight.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Winds are increasing this evening as the surface
pressure gradient strengthens ahead of tomorrow night`s cold
front. Higher wind speeds and warm advection should hold off
radiation fog overnight, so VFR conditions will last through most
of the day tomorrow. Look for ceilings to deteriorate from west
to east beginning in the late afternoon as abundant low-level
moisture develops ahead of the front. Showers will then spread
across the mid state mainly after 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08


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