Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 272042
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Dewpoints are currently in the 40s across the area as sfc ridging
extends from AR eastward across the mid state. Overnight tonight an
approaching frontal system will be dropping southward across the
midwest. Light southwest flow may pick up late so I will go with the
guidance on overnight lows as opposed to undercutting the mins.
Should see lows generally in the lower 50s by sunrise.

On Wednesday, fropa to occur late in the afternoon. Upper level
support is evident as a deepening upper trough drops southward.
Clouds will increase with a low chance of showers in the afternoon.
Pops are low because moisture return will be somewhat hampered by
the current dry airmass that is now in place. By Wed nt, the best
moisture availability will be across our eastern zones so pops will
be confined to that region, only.

On Thursday, upper low will slowly be approaching eastern TN. There
appears to be a fair amount of curvature and shear on the back side
of the low and thus, the low shower chances will continue. In fact,
showalter values do support the potential for some thunder for our
eastern zones.

For the near term temps, values will warm to close to 80 degrees on
Wed, just prior to the late afternoon fropa. Then, cooler weather as
cloud cover and the lowering heights descend upon our area.
Highs will hold in the 60s on Thu. Lows will remain in the 50s.

In the ext fcst, the upper low may retrograde toward the west on
Friday before lifting off to the northeast. Shower chances will end
by Sunday. As the heights begin to rise again and clouds decrease,
look for warmer temps with highs back into the 80s for Mon and Tues.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours. Yesterday`s
frontal passage brought us much drier air and northerly winds
today. By 00z this evening winds will begin to shift from a N wind
to a WSW wind. Winds will remain light and out of the WSW through
at least tomorrow at 18z on Wednesday. No precipitation is
expected in the next 24 hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  79  52  67  54 /   0  20  20  20  10
Clarksville    51  77  51  68  54 /   0  20  10  20  10
Crossville     49  76  52  62  50 /  10  20  30  20  10
Columbia       51  80  52  70  53 /   0  20  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   50  81  52  70  52 /   0  20  20  20  10
Waverly        50  77  51  68  53 /   0  20  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........11


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