Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 171115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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