Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 270937
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
437 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Middle Tennessee is in store for a busy day of showers and
thunderstorms. The first wave of precip will be this morning
around 7 to 9am and will impact mainly areas around and to the
northwest of Nashville. No severe weather is expected with these
early showers and storms, but they may contain some brief heavy
rainfall and lightning and could be enough to cause some travel
issues during the morning commute. The main storms we`re
concerned about are expected in the afternoon and evening today.
Currently it looks like storms will develop in the late morning
west of the Tennessee River and move into Middle Tennessee around
noon. Encouraged by increasing temperatures, southerly winds, and
moderate CAPE values, storms are expected to become strong to
severe. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with a
low threat of tornadoes. The timing for severe storms is pretty
broad right now and they may last into the late evening as
instability and waves of moisture will be available all afternoon
and into the evening. We should begin to stabilize after 7pm as
the sun sets and as the surface low responsible for the activity
slowly exits the Mississippi valley and moves through the Ohio
River Valley. Crossville could still see some strong to
potentially severe storms in the late afternoon to late evening
timeframe.

With upper ridging in place, Tuesday and Wednesday will be
relatively calm with only a few lingering showers on Tuesday
after the frontal passage. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler during the day on Tuesday, then warm back into the mid to
upper 70s on Wednesday.

A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
through Friday. Temperatures will cool into the 60s after the
passage of this system and we`ll be left with a pleasant looking
weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Active system currently wreaking havoc over the
Plains is going to be our next weather-producer, although the
severity will lessen during the next 24 hours as the system
propagates eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into Middle
Tennessee during the day tomorrow. Conditions overnight and
tomorrow morning will remain VFR. Expect showers and a few storms
to begin developing Monday afternoon and moving eastward across
the mid state throughout the afternoon and into the evening,
possibly not reaching the Cumberland Plateau until 00Z or later.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  59  73  52  76 /  80  80  20  10  10
Clarksville    74  55  69  51  73 /  80  80  10  10  10
Crossville     73  57  68  50  72 /  60  80  30  10  10
Columbia       75  60  73  53  77 /  80  80  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   76  61  74  52  77 /  70  80  20  10  10
Waverly        74  57  69  52  75 /  80  80  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........08



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