Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231048
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
448 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Went ahead and issued a dense fog advisory earlier, for our Plateau
until 9 am this morning. Current vsbys are running between 1/4 and
3/4 miles as this time. Otw, upper level low is now located over FL
and to our north, a warm front over IL and IN will continue to push
slowly northward. There is some lower level cloudiness back to our
west and that will likely move across our area later this morning.
Upper level westerlies will carry an upper impulse across northern
areas this morning. Thus, could see a few sprinkles across the
north. Temps will again be in the 70s today, some upper ridge
amplification will take place toward 00z.

Tonight, a sfc low will be tracking eastward across that
aforementioned warm front. For us, a southerly wind flow will begin
to pick up with low temps only dropping into the upper 50s.

A cold front will extend south of the sfc low and will be on
approach late Friday afternoon. Winds will increase into the 15 to
25 mph range with higher gusts. A wind advisory may be needed within
the next 24 hours to cover this. The actual fropa will occur Friday
evening with showers and tstms accompanying the front. With high
temps reaching 80 degrees on Friday, there will be plenty of lower
level instability. Furthermore, as some upper level energy begins to
catch up with the boundary, organized linear omega fields will
engage with favorable shear levels. Thus, a round of strong to svr
tstms looks possible, mainly for areas east of I-65, during the
evening. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat.

Turning colder late Friday night. By Sat morning, temps will start
out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will stay in the 40s for
the most part.

In the ext fcst, Sunday morning will be rather cold with the sfc
high in close proximity. Low temps will be in the upper 20s for most
areas. Temps will rebound into the 50s for highs. A warming trend
will then commence in advance of the next fropa which will occur on
Monday night. Look for mostly showers on Monday though as
instabilities are rather weak.

Weak high pressure to build in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will
remain mild with lows 50 to 55 and highs 65 to 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Patchy low clouds/low vsbys around the area expected to give way
to VFR conditions later this morning. Then VFR conditions expected
to last much of the period...with possible MVFR deck reappearing
09z-12z/Fri. South winds expected to pick up later today.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Cumberland-
Fentress-Grundy-Pickett-Van Buren-Warren-White.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07



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