Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300855
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The weak and broad upper troughing pattern will continue into this
weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary sfc boundary will continue to
meander to the north of the mid state. Afternoon cap erosion will
again occur by this afternoon and we do see neutral to slightly
favorable late afternoon omega fields. Thus...what will probably be
scattered convection is expected by this afternoon. Tranquil
conditions are expected tonight as moisture fields back off a touch
and upper divergence fields look minimal.

On Sunday, some drier air will lower our mrh levels and actually
provide some afternoon capping. Weak subsidence may occur in the
afternoon and model qpf returns are rather miserly. Will elect to
only include 20 pops and extend that pop on into Sunday night as
wind divergence is again absent.

On Monday, upper flow becomes more northwesterly and the mid and
upper level cool slightly. This will lead to an increase in
instability and 30 to 40 pops.

In the ext fcst, upper high to build over the southern tier.
However, moisture and a continuation of minimal afternoon cap
strengths will allow low pops to continue.

Temperatures look rather steady through the period with values
running a few degrees above normal. For areas west of the Plateau,
generally speaking, lows lower 70s and highs lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions at TAF time with waning showers across East Middle
TN. This activity will continue to dissipate leaving a very wet
ground to help with some patchy fog development after 08Z tonight.
Some IFR vis can be expected, especially at KCSV. Winds will be
light and variable the rest of the night then become primarily
swly Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  72  92  72  91 /  30  20  20  20  40
Clarksville    88  70  91  71  91 /  30  20  20  20  40
Crossville     85  67  85  67  87 /  30  30  20  20  40
Columbia       91  70  92  71  92 /  30  20  20  20  40
Lawrenceburg   91  71  92  71  91 /  30  20  20  20  40
Waverly        88  70  91  71  91 /  30  20  20  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Hurley


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