Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 302005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches on
Wednesday, then crosses the area from Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. A large high pressure system then builds into the region
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
With zonal flow aloft, dry conditions will continue through the
overnight period. Light winds will allow temperatures to fall into
the lower 60s across outlying areas, and to near 70 in the New York
City metro area.

A high risk of rip currents will continue through this evening at
the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high continues to move offshore, a shortwave trough
will approach the area from the west during the day on Wednesday.
This will result in increasing clouds and a chance for showers and
thunderstorms north and west of New York City by Wednesday evening.
The front then slowly moves across the area Wednesday night and into
the day on Thursday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
continues through much of the day on Thursday as the upper level
trough crosses the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have just a slight chance PoP Thu evening as the upper trough passes
east. Then a large high pressure system should build in at least
through Saturday, with slightly above average temps continuing.

While the forecast continues in this vein through Monday, certainty
decreases beginning this weekend, and ultimately depends upon the
future track and intensity of Tropical Depression 9 (now located
over the Gulf of Mexico) and its interaction with an upper trough to
its west as it continues on the NHC forecast track and intensity,
across Florida on Thursday and then off the Southeast coast on
Saturday as a tropical storm. There are indications that the system
could track closer to the western edge of the NHC 5-day forecast
cone.

At any rate, rip currents and eventually high surf could be problems
through the Labor Day weekend, first from distant Hurricane Gaston,
then from TD9 (or its named equivalent) during the Labor Day holiday
weekend. Beachgoers should be aware of these potential risks.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will drift eastward over the Atlantic through
Wednesday.

A combination of sea breeze and return flow around the exiting high
pressure system can be expected through Wednesday. This translates
into roughly 160-220 true winds through the TAF period. Localized
variability possible at times.

VFR is generally expected through Wednesday. There is a low
probability that stratus develops late tonight and produces ceilings
around 1000 ft. For the TAFs, only included a mention of scattered
clouds at this height due to the much higher VFR likelihood.


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some variability between 150 and 200 true
possible through 00Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Some variability between 170 and 210 true
possible through 00Z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Variability between 180 and 120 true is possible
through 00Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.


.Outlook for 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Rest of Wednesday...low chance of MVFR or lower late at night.
.Thursday...Showers possible with a cold frontal passage. Light
winds with variable direction due to localized effects, becoming
northwest late.
.Friday...VFR with northwest winds.
.Saturday and Sunday...Low probability for deep low pressure over
the Atlantic to impact the area. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island will
keep winds to 10 kt or less through Thursday. A persistent SE swell
from distant Hurricane Gaston will keep seas around 4 ft over the
coastal ocean waters through Wednesday night and 3 to 4 ft on
Thursday, with rough conditions likely at area inlets. These seas are
below SCA thresholds, so the small craft advisory for hazardous seas
has been cancelled.

Lingering long period swells of 2-3 ft from Gaston should continue
into Friday night, which along with offshore flow up to 15 kt should
result in combined seas 3-4 ft Thu night into Friday.

Forecast certainty decreases thereafter, and will depend on the
future track and intensity of TD9 as it moves from the Gulf of
Mexico into the Atlantic from Friday into the weekend. Forecast does
not include any direct wind impacts, but does include ocean swell
building to over SCA criteria this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate
to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week.

Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local
drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/Maloit/Goodman
NEAR TERM...FEB/Maloit
SHORT TERM...FEB/Maloit
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FEB/Maloit/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...FEB/Maloit/Goodman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.