Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 310248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND IS SITTING
JUST WEST OF KMGJ. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY NOT MOVE INTO
THE NYC AREA TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 08Z. WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT. AREAS OF STRATUS FROM AROUND 400 FT
TO 2000 FT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT TIMES IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRATUS.

WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS
HAVE FALLEN TO 3 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST
CRITERIA. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN THROUGH 10Z...BUT THE RECENT TREND IS FOR SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT...SO IT COULD BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS


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