Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 010559
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT PCPN NOTED OVER EASTERN AREA...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WEAK
VORT MAX WORKS ITS WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WILL BE WATCHING PCPN
OVER EASTERN PA AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH MORE DEFINED UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING NE FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE, WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL
KEEP THE REGION IS IFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PERIOD.

MARGINAL CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. BEING
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR THIS AFTN FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING THE
NY METRO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA WILL
PREVAIL FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TONGUE/NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.