Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NJ
AND NYC...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDS TEMPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE DAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT NLY TO VARIABLE FLOW GIVES WAY TO SEA BREEZES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT PM...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MMD/PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...MMD/PICCA/PW
SHORT TERM...MMD/PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MMD/PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...MMD/PICCA/PW








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