Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 130115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...THEN
STALL NEAR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY NEW YORK AND
ANOTHER ACROSS NRN NJ WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS BRINGS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS DEW POINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
CITY SHOULD TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL...BUT THE MAIN CLOSED LOW WILL STILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25-30 KT
ON SUNDAY...MAINLY FROM THE CITY NORTH AND WEST. PWATS ALSO SURGE TO
AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT IF A STORM DOES BECOME SEVERE.

SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN SOME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
80S. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THANKS TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ON MONDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LOW AS A WEAKER FRONT DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL PA. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY ON MONDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE STALLING FRONT CREATING
TRAINING OF CELLS SO WILL CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN WORDING. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. AS WELL...MU CAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER 2000 J/KG FOR AREAS WEST OF NYC MON AFTERNOON AND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND LIKELY POPS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AREAS EAST OF NYC...WITH THE STABILIZING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.

STARTING TUE MORNING...CONFIDENCE DROPS IN POP AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY.
LARGE DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ONE EXTREME...THE
NAM..WITH NO PRECIP WEST OF NYC AFTER 12Z. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
12/12Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH PRECIP OVER THE LONGEST PERIOD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE MAIN COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WED WHILE GFS/GEFS/CMC
HAS IT THROUGH BY WED MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH WED
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THIS SOLUTION. IF THIS SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...TUES WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG STORMS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT BUT LESS CAPE THAN MONDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGHS MON-TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THU-SAT WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 24H. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE SUN AFT/EARLY EVE.

THIS REMAINS A MAINLY VFR FORECAST WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
OF SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THIS IS
OFTEN A CHALLENGE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WARM SEASON...WHEN
FOG/STRATUS OCCUR LESS OFTEN.

SLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP ON SUN TO 10-15KT WITH G20-25 KT IN THE AFT.

SCT CONVECTION IS FORECAST IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS.
STRONGER TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY.
.THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND WINDS INCREASE TO SCA
LEVELS WITH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE HARBOR AND OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 16Z. SEAS WILL ALSO BE RISING TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SCA
CURRENTLY GOES TO 04Z MONDAY ON THE HARBOR AND 10Z MONDAY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED ON MONDAY WITH OCEAN SEAS RISING TO
5-7 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. .

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LN/DS
NEAR TERM...LN/DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...LN/DS
HYDROLOGY...LN/DS






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