Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 180544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO NW OHIO. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. COULD ALSO POSSIBLY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND
THEY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THU. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 07-08Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

GENERALLY VFR THU INTO THU EVE WITH SCT-BKN CIGS OF 3500-4000FT. LOW
PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE THU NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW





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