Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171649
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The November 17-18, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus will continue to dissipate this afternoon with
unrestricted ceilings and visibilities expected at all terminals.
Abundant cirrus clouds will advect from west to east through the
TAF period.

Gusty, south-southwest winds this afternoon will weaken slightly
this evening. A cold front will move from northwest to southeast
through the overnight and early morning hours across all terminals.
Gusty, north-northwest are expected behind the front. Wind gusts
in excess of 40 knots will be possible across west-central into
southwest Oklahoma.

There is a low chance of a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind
the cold front--especially across central Oklahoma; however, the
probability is too low to include in TAFs for now.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated hourly temperature and dew point forecast through 00Z.

DISCUSSION...
Stratus is quickly dissipating this morning with dry air
advection (850 mb winds are nearly due west) and increasing
mixing. In its place, expect abundant cirrus to advect from the
west--especially across northwest/west-central Oklahoma.

Current temperatures are already warmer than average high
temperatures for mid-November. Based on current observations and
short-term models, opted to increase high temperatures for this
afternoon. Consequently, high temperatures are expected to be
near or at records (80F at OKC, 86F Wichita Falls, and 82F
Lawton) this afternoon.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

AVIATION...
1712/1812 TAFS...

LIFR to IFR conditions will quickly improve through
14-15Z this morning, as low clouds and light fog
dissipate. A gusty southwest wind will decrease this
evening as a cold front approaches. As the front moves
across Oklahoma and north Texas between 8-12Z, very strong
northerly winds will develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A rather shallow moist layer, especially across western Oklahoma,
will result in a quick erosion of low clouds and fog early this
morning. Farther east, clouds will remain through the mid to
perhaps late morning.

Later today, near-record to record high temperatures are expected
with a breezy southwest wind. The very warm weather will combine
with low afternoon humidity, to create elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions. Near Red Flag conditions may develop for
a few hours near the Texas and Oklahoma border this afternoon,
however, high clouds may limit mixing some, especially across
northern Oklahoma. With ERC values near average, will not issue a
Red Flag Warning for far western Oklahoma or north Texas.

Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will
move across much of Oklahoma and north Texas.  Strong cold advection
behind the front will result in strong wind gusts perhaps in the
50-55 mph range. The strongest winds are expected across western
Oklahoma, but most areas will experience at least 40 mph gusts, so
a Wind Advisory will be issued for the entire forecast area.

Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon
humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather
conditions.

Lighter winds can be expected Saturday night into Sunday, but will
increase again from the south by Monday. The gusty winds on
Monday will again elevate fire weather concerns as afternoon
humidity levels will be rather low.

Another front will push across the southern Plains on Tuesday, but
little if any rain will occur with the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  51  56  33 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         84  52  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  56  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           84  45  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  47  56  30 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  60  62  37 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

10/23/10



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