Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130443
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
08-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KSPS...KLAW...
KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC AFTER 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT NEARLY
ALL SITES AFTER 00Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KGAG AND KWWR
AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. DID NOT MENTION THESE CEILINGS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL
SITES BY 16Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. OBSERVING TRENDS... TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIP ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN
RESPONSE TO TEMPS UPSTREAM... FEEL CONFIDENT IN BRINGING LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN 1 OR 2 MORE DEGREES... EVEN WITH THE SCT/BKN DECK
OF CLOUDS. COULD BE FAIRLY CHILLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
DAYBREAK... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT HERE.

STARTING TUESDAY...MOS GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW SOME SIGNAL OF LOW RH
VALUES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS
TIME...THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
RISE...REACHING INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF MODELS ON THESE WARM AND DRY DAYS OVER RECENT
WEEKS...NUDGED TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND NUDGED
DEWPOINTS DOWN TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME BREEZIER
CONDITIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  53  42  59 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         30  55  44  63 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  61  48  69 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           25  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     21  45  35  54 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         36  55  44  59 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/17/17


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