Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 132323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

.DISCUSSION... INITIAL COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONT
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTN AND MAINTAIN SOME ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTN AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE UPSLOPE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY STILL APPEARS
LIKELY THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO
LATE TUE/TUE EVENING AND THEN MOVE SE TOWARD AND THEN THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA WED. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS TIME. SOME GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE TIME ALSO KEEP AREAS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS WED. HAVE NOT GONE
QUITE THAT COOL... BUT WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND SOME CAA... NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SFC BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS WITH CONT VERY COOL TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES LINGER
INTO LATE WEEK... MAINLY SOUTH.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
YET ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
AREA... WHICH MAY BRING YET MORE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA AND KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  93  67  82 /  30  30  40  10
HOBART OK         73  95  67  86 /  30  30  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  99  72  89 /   0  20  40  30
GAGE OK           68  91  62  79 /  40  40  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  91  61  80 /  20  30  20  10
DURANT OK         75  99  73  92 /   0  20  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30



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