Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 241957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS
MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT.

POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF
THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC
KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME
30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME
OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS
REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING
AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY
AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FROM A COLD FRONT WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT PLAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR
ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA...AND RH READINGS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BELOW 10
MPH...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND FUEL MOISTURE HAS RAISED
CONCERNS WITH ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. AT REQUEST OF THE VIRGINIA
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY AND IN COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM EDT
TODAY. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER AFTER SUNSET. BY FRIDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW



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