Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 070401
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1101 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
STAY SITUATED SOUTH OF US INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MOVES BY
TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM EST FRIDAY...

BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST PROVIDING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
AN INCREASING 85H WESTERLY JET WILL ALLOW MORE MIXING ON THE
RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOWERS. THUS OPENING
UP THE VALLEY TO RIDGETOP RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO THE
COLDER EC VALUES DEEPER VALLEYS AND OUT EAST...BUT STEADYING OUT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS AT ELEVATION. THIS MAY AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW GIVEN SNOW COVER WITH
OVERALL TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST AND MIX
ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. THIS ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR
RISE LATE.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND ALSO WHERE SOME
LINGERING SNOW COVER LINGERS...TO LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NC MTNS
INTO SOME PORTIONS OF FAR SW VA/SRN WV ALONG THE RIDGES...AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR
BREAK RECORD LOWS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

DURING SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER MAINLY NORTH OF US SO KEPT
SKIES SUNNY....THOUGH INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL BE
OCCURRING IN THE NW CWA. MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 40S SOUTHEAST WV TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST ON BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MINOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND...AS
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOUTH OF I81 AND
ROUTE 460 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL PUSH A SOLID
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVE
MODERATED A GOOD BIT AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH
AND THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE ALL LIQUID WITH NO WINTRY WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...

WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA CAPES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PULLING EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING IN ITS WAKE AS A MODEST BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NUDGES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEPART WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE AIR
BEHIND THIS LOW NOT PARTICULARLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE +5C TO +7C RANGE WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 50S
WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST.  THE DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF
BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND STILL MILD WITH 50S AND LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 30S
AND LOW 40S. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A VERY WET PERIOD COMMENCING IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS GULF SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO A BUILDING 1040 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE A
FAIRLY STRONG CAD DEVELOPING BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF H85 TEMPS WELL ABOVE
0C ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ONSET OF
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH NOT SO FAR ABOVE THAT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
CAN BE IGNORED IN FUTURE ANALYSIS. PLENTY OF MODEL RUNS TO REFINE
ANY SUCH SCENARIO. BECOMING WET LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
COLD RAIN AND 1-INCH PLUS POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION APPEARING
LIKELY...HYDROLOGY MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SOME PASSING HIGH OR MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10K FEET.

OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE WEST/SW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPILL A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES SUNDAY. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO KDAN WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE CAROLINAS
MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 7TH...

ROANOKE      14/1960
LYNCHBURG    14/1960
DANVILLE     18/1960
BLACKSBURG   10/1960
BLUEFIELD     9/1960
LEWISBURG    15/1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/WP
CLIMATE...JH/WP


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