Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 170542
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING DOWN THE
EAST COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE EAST WHERE FROST- FREEZE PROGRAM ON GOING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THURSDAY. A EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL HAVE
TO LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER FREEZE. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.

AS OF 726 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT
EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL
PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND INCREASED MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS IS WELL BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
JUST BEYOND 00Z FRI...EXPECT BKN-OVC 250 TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT
UNTIL THEN. WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-9KTS...WITH LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME AND ALL HOURS AT
BLF.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM



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