Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early this
morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of the departing
upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the west. Under mostly
sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under mostly clear skies
will be in the mid 50s to the around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday.
As the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the country.
Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs next week
and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front by mid week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  85  61  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  58  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  56  84  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24












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