Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020847
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
347 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across much of
West Central Texas as isentropic ascent continues and a weak upper
level shortwave trough swings across the region. Expect this
activity to continue through the morning, slowly shifting south and
east of the area. Most locations will be dry by this afternoon,
although a few lingering showers will be possible, mainly across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Cloud cover will slowly decrease from north
to south today, although the southern half of the area should see
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies through much of the day. The cloud
cover combined with continued weak cold air advection will result in
high temperatures well below seasonal normals. Highs will generally
be in the upper 60s.

Good radiational cooling conditions are expected overnight as skies
become mostly clear and winds become light and variable. Overnight
low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Zonal flow will prevail with the passage of the weak shortwave
trough for Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Another weak frontal
boundary will sag into the northern Big Country Tuesday Night, and
there may be enough lift and moisture still in place for a few
showers or storms. Have added slight chance POP`s to the forecast
for areas north of Abilene and Sweetwater.

Upper level ridge axis builds into the area for the rest of the
work week, bringing dry and warmer conditions. After highs in the
70s on Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will rebound into the 80s
for the rest of the week.

Deep upper level low will drop into the Western US for the weekend
and early next week. The GFS is more progressive with the trough
than the ECMWF, although both develop convection across West
Central Texas at different points Saturday afternoon into Monday.
Will continue to mention a chance of showers and storms, and will
refine the forecast as the models converge on a solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  46  74  53 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  68  46  78  51 /  20   5   5   5
Junction  66  47  77  49 /  40   5   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels/07



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