Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 221103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Occasional light showers may move over terminals during the TAF
period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance of
associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of rainfall
today will be over the western half of the area. As the upper trough
continues to track east through today and tonight, the upper flow
aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier air into the area
and consequently shifting the best rainfall chances to the eastern
half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come to an end tomorrow
morning as the upper trough axis moves east of the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper trough
and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for highs in
the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area, with lower
80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the
upper 50s.



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the extended
period, with well above normal temperatures expected Friday through
next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and upper
80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains Monday
night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the area on
Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough compared to the
GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation affecting mainly
far northern counties ahead of the front Monday night. Forecast
confidence remains low at this time however, so will continue to
maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler temperatures behind the front
Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime highs closer to seasonal
norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  80  57  81  56  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











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