Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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517
FXUS64 KSJT 170838
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
338 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak northwest flow aloft over our area will become westerly by
early Wednesday morning, as an upper ridge over the southwestern
CONUS is suppressed south into Mexico and South Texas. Dry air in
place and full sunshine will allow for a strong temperature recovery
today, after a cold start. Highs this afternoon are expected to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Light winds will become south at 6-12
mph today as a surface ridge axis shifts slowly east of our area.

Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous couple of
nights across our northern and western counties, where south winds
will continue on the back side of the aforementioned surface ridge.
The coolest readings tonight are expected across our some of our
eastern and southern counties, where winds will be weakest in
proximity to the receding surface ridge axis. Skies will be clear
tonight with dry air remaining in place.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Slightly warmer conditions will continue through the remainder of
the work week, with Wednesday likely the warmest day. Weak upper
level trough will develop across the Southern Rockies and produce
a little better southwest flow aloft across the area. This will
allow temperatures to climb an extra degree or two, with highs in
the mid 80s in many locations. As this upper trough moves across
West Central Texas late Thursday into Friday, may have enough lift
to generate a few showers across the area Thursday Night and a few
isolated storms on Friday. Kept rain chances at 20%, but expand the
area to cover much of West Central Texas.

Dry and warm to start the weekend off, with the next cold front
due across the area Saturday Night and Sunday. Should have plenty
of moisture in place ahead of the front, with the ECMWF showing a
decent area of convection developing across the area. Bumped rain
chances up just a little for Saturday Night. Models continue to
struggle with run to run consistency with the development of an
upper low late next weekend, although both the GFS and the ECMWF
are now forecasting this to occur well east of the area and have
little impact on West Central Texas. Will go with this forecast
for now and continue to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  81  48  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  80  44  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  78  45  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  79  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       79  46  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

19/07



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