Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
532 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will persist across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. The primary aviation concern will be gusty
southwest and west winds developing by Thursday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

(Tonight and Thursday)

The main concern the next 24 hours will be fire weather concerns
tomorrow. An upper level trough will advance east across the
Rockies on Thursday, with surface low pressure strengthening over
eastern Colorado and western Kansas in response. Southwest to west
winds will increase across the area on Thursday, with
unseasonably warm temperatures continuing.

For tonight, expect clear skies and light winds with overnight
lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Dry downslope flow in
combination with a strong low level thermal ridge across the area
will result in another unseasonably warm day on Thursday, with
afternoon highs 25 to 30 degrees above normal. The record high is
likely to be broken for San Angelo Thursday, which is currently 85
(set in 2012). The record high of 89 degrees (set in 1918) for
Abilene, will likely be tied and possibly broken on Thursday.
Winds will be strongest across western portions of the area on
Thursday and this is where highest fire weather concerns are
expected. See fire weather discussion below.

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Surface trough/Pacific front will move through Thursday night and
Friday. Drier and slightly cooler air will move in by Friday
afternoon along with breezy northwest winds. Fire weather
conditions will be close to critical, particularly across the Big
Country and Concho Valley where 20 foot wind speeds will approach
20 mph at times.

A cold front Friday night may allow temperatures to fall near the
freezing mark early Saturday morning, particularly for low lying
and protected areas. Radiational cooling will not be perfect,
however, with north winds of 10 to 15 mph.

Strong zonal flow aloft will allow a strong surface low/trough to
develop in the South Plains Sunday, along with breezy southwest
winds. The low will be moving east along the Red River Valley
early Monday morning, bringing a weak cold front through West
Central Texas Monday. Breezy again Tuesday with yet another
surface low developing in the Panhandle. Some isolated
thunderstorms possible in eastern sections Tuesday/Tuesday night
as surface trough and cold front move through. However confidence
is low as moisture is mainly east of the region.

Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns increase across the area on Thursday as
gusty southwest to west winds develop, with minimum afternoon
humidities falling into the 10 and 20 percent range during the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm on
Thursday with afternoon highs around 90 degrees. The combination
of hot temperatures, dry conditions and gusty winds will
contribute to high fire danger across western portions of the Big
Country, western Concho Valley and across Crockett county Thursday
afternoon and evening. For this reason, a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for this area from 11 AM until 8 PM Thursday afternoon
and evening.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will develop
across much of the area on Friday, due to gusty northwest winds
and afternoon humidities between 10 and 20 percent. However,
cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s will somewhat
limit the overall threat but Red Flag conditions still look
possible again from the western Big Country into portions of the
Concho Valley.


Abilene  53  89  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  50  91  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  47  90  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  48  88  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  52  87  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       47  87  46  71 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for Coke-



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