Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 070550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

/06Z TAFS/

Very challenging flight weather will continue for at least the
next 12 hours. Models this cycle, especially the NAM, paint a very
pessimistic picture for possible improvement anytime before
tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is low regarding potential
improvement after 18Z; thus, will continue IFR to LIFR through the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

/00Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather to continue for at least the
next 18 hours. Conditions may temporarily improve into the VFR
range this evening; however, watch for MVFR to IFR ceilings to
quickly return by 06Z. Winds from the north will shift overnight,
and by sunrise, winds will come from mainly the east. Conditions
may improve late in the forecast period, mainly after 18Z, to VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

(Today and Tonight)

Low clouds and patchy drizzle have continued on and off today
across much of the area behind a cold front. As a surface high
continues to build in behind the front...we are seeing drier air
move in at the lower levels. Clouds have been eroding this
afternoon and will erode a bit more through the evening.
However...expecting a return of low clouds to most of the area by
sunrise Wednesday. As cold air advection continues in the low
levels...we will see temperatures fall after sunset, with lows
generally in the mid to upper 30s by morning.

We should see a bit of a warmup Wednesday as winds switch around
to the west and southwest as the surface high slides off to the
east. Decreasing cloud cover through the afternoon should allow
temperatures to climb into the 50s and 60s. However...the warmer
temperatures will be brief as a strong arctic front begins to
approach the area later Wednesday.


(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

.Cold air is still on the way with wintry precipitation

By Wednesday night, an arctic cold front will be moving through
the area. Models have been very consistent with the timing of
this front moving into the area during the evening hours, and
likely being through the entire CWA by shortly after midnight
with gusty northeast winds and much colder temperatures behind
it. Temperatures will be below freezing for areas north of
Interstate 10 by early Thursday morning. It is also becoming
increasingly likely that we will see at least some light wintry
precipitation beginning after midnight Thursday night, and
continuing through Thursday morning. We continue to be in the
favorable RRQ of a 100+ knot upper level jetstreak moving across
the area, as well as shortwave energy moving through the base of
the upper level trough over the top of the region. Exact
precipitation types are still somewhat unclear, butit`s becoming
more likely that as the colder air becomes deeper late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, and there`s enough lift to saturate
the upper levels, that a mix of light snow and sleet, or just an
all light snow precipitation type is expected from late Wednesday
night into mid to late morning hours Thursday. This will be mainly
true for areas north of an Ozona to San Saba line, with more of a
frozen/liquid precipitation mix possible for the Interstate 10
corridor area. Should the snow develop across the northern Concho
Valley/southern Big Country, accumulations are still expected to
be light at less than half an inch, and with minimal impacts to
travel conditions.

The other impact from this event will be the cold temperatures.
With north winds of 10 to 20 mph and temperatures in the 20s
early Thursday, wind chill readings in the teens will be common.
Windchill values will remain in the 20s throughout the rest of the
day.Then, low temperatures Friday morning are still expected to
drop into the low 20s to the upper teens. Temperatures may be
modified somewhat as model soundings do show the possibility of
low clouds hanging on Thursday night into Friday morning.

Dry weather from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
slowly moderate back into the upper 50s to mid 60s by early next
week for highs.


Abilene  36  55  26  36 /   0   5  20  20
San Angelo  36  63  28  36 /   0   5  20  30
Junction  36  62  32  38 /   0   5  20  20
Brownwood  38  57  29  37 /   5   5  20  20
Sweetwater  35  55  24  34 /   0   5  20  20
Ozona       36  62  29  35 /   0   0  20  30



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