303
FXUS63 KDLH 131141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through Tuesday, with smoke aloft
  causing milky skies.

- Frost possible again tonight and Tuesday night.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms Wednesday and after.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Today and Tuesday:

Dry conditions continue today and tomorrow, despite the cooler
temperatures compared to yesterday. Classic inverted V soundings
across the area both days indicate RHs below 30 percent due to
mixing down very dry air, with some pockets possibly reaching
below 20 if mixing is efficient. In addition, smoke from
Canadian wildfires have lifted from the surface as mixing was
cut off this evening behind behind the cold front, but should
linger aloft for the next couple days. While mixing is efficient
it should remain under the smoke, which will be lingering at
around 6kft AGL according to the HRRR Smoke model. So sunny but
milky skies will be prevalent today and tomorrow.

Chances for frost continue tonight with efficient radiational
cooling at the surface. Widespread temperatures in the low to
mid 30s are expected for all areas except for the Brainerd Lakes
area, along the shores of Lake Superior, and along our southern
CWA border. Another Frost Advisory will likely be needed again
tonight.

Wednesday system:

On Tuesday, an open wave trough dips into the Rockies and leads
to a developing surface low pressure system in the Northern
Plains. This system will move east to the Northland and will
bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Wisconsin will stay dry for most of the day, with conditions
similar to today and Tuesday before the system moves through. The
environment for thunderstorms is not impressive, but with
MUCAPE of a couple hundred from the Brainerd Lakes into
northwest Wisconsin, a rumble of thunder or two is not out of
the question. As the low battles dry air as it moves east,
precipitation onset may be later than what is forecasted.

Late week and weekend:

Global models start to diverge at this point, but hint at a
secondary weaker system behind Wednesday`s low. However, the
EURO has us getting precipitation from this system on Thursday,
while the GFS has it completely missing us. Several more chances
for precipitation will occur over the weekend and into next
week, along with warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Smoky
conditions aloft will linger through today and into Tuesday. The
HRRR suggests thicker areas of smoke being at 6kft AGL. Winds
will start out of the north this morning, and will veer to the
northeast/east this evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Light and variable winds over Lake Superior are expected today.
Tuesday, winds will shift to the northeast and will remain light
for most, but may be higher in the Twin Ports as the winds are
funneled down the western arm. Winds up to 20 kts are possible
Tuesday afternoon in the Twin Ports. These northeast winds will
continue into Wednesday and will increase further as a low
approaches the Northland. With wind gusts up to 25 kts expected,
a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-
     019.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML