Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 311245
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
745 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Have updated for the latest trends on radar and for the very
strong winds being observed around Lake Superior. Have trimmed
back the thunder potential to mainly south of highway 2 for the
mid morning to early evening time range as it looks like all the
cloud cover and rain is going to limit any instability over far
northern minnesota. Winds in the Twin Ports have been sustaining
in the 15-20knot range with gusts over 30kts at times overnight.
expect this to accelerate in the next few hours as the surface low
over north dakota continues to deepen and begins to move
northeast. This should keep our winds high all day today and have
made some adjustments up in the wind gust speeds to match more
with what is showing in observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A nearly stacked low over the Dakotas this morning will give the
northland another few days of wet and cool weather. Early this
morning the surface low was centered over eastern North Dakota.
Thunderstorms developed north of a warm front that has been
draped over southern portions of the northland, from Detroit
Lakes, Brainerd, Hinckley to Siren. A strong low level jet
developed overnight. KDLH VAD wind profile showing 50 knots of
wind at 3k feet. As the storms moved north into more stable air
they decreased in intensity. This front and jet will continue to
help fire up showers and storms today as the low becomes nearly
stationary and spins over North Dakota then slowly moves into
northern Minnesota tonight. Have kept storms only in north central
Wisconsin tonight as stability will be lacking to support storms
elsewhere.

A dry slot will work around the low and into the Brainerd Lakes
area this afternoon where once this next batch of showers and
storms over western MN move through will most likely be dry the
rest of the day and tonight.

East winds funneling down the lake have been very strong near
Lake Superior and especially in the Twin Ports. Winds have gusted
over 40 mph at the Duluth Airport. There has been a decreasing
trend the past few hours with the winds gusting to a bit over 30
mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Wednesday morning the strong low pressure system moving across the
area will move to over western Ontario, continuing off to the
northeast during the day and Wednesday night.  The accompanying cold
front will be exiting the eastern section of the forecast area
during the morning, with the higher chances for precipitation moving
off to the east.  However, on the southwest side of the system steep
low level lapse rates in the cold air advection will help produce
showers most of the day Wednesday and into Wednesday night before
coming to an end early Thursday.  The clouds and precipitation will
keep temperatures near to below normal both Wednesday and Thursday,
with highs only in the 60s most locations.  A brief break in the
action will be observed Thursday night, with ridging shifting across
the area to bring a chilly night with lows in the low-mid 40s. It
should be a good radiational cooling night, so some places will even
drop into the 30s.

Another fairly strong shortwave will dive into the area beginning on
Friday, which then gets caught up in the trend for cutting off and
stalling over the great lakes through the weekend. The approach of
this storm will bring warmer temperatures for Friday along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and near normal
temperatures over next weekend.  Our next chance for dry weather
looks like it should be Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An area of low pressure will move from eastern North Dakota this
morning northeast into Ontario by this evening, bringing periods
of showers and thunderstorms to the terminals through
approximately 03z tonight. KDLH to be most strongly affected by
this storm with IFR/LIFR conditions and strong east
winds. Remaining sites to have several hours of IFR/LIFR
conditions as periods of rain with embedded thunder move across
the terminals. Improving conditions are expected to begin from
west to east generally from 00z-06z tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  47  62  46 /  80  40  30  20
INL  61  49  60  46 /  90  50  60  50
BRD  71  51  63  47 /  80  10  20  10
HYR  72  53  68  47 /  90  70  20  10
ASX  64  49  67  47 /  90  90  20  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



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