Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230528 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...SLIDING EAST
ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS FROM 69
TO 74.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

OVERALL QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FOCUS ON A SHORT WAVE/CLOSED H50 LOW THAT TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS/ELONGATES AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND WED/WED NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT
PRODUCING MUCH QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE...HAVE
CONTINUED CARRYING BROAD BRUSH SCHC POPS WED/WED EVENING DUE TO THE
HIGH PWATS /IN EXCESS OF AN INCH/ AND SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.

AS THE WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING
H85/H70 TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD AREA OF
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES THURS/FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN ON THE ORDER
OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WHEN BR FORMS AND VSBYS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. GUSTY SFC
WINDS ARE FORECAST AT BRD FROM 17Z TO 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  69  53  71 /   0  10  10   0
INL  51  69  52  74 /   0  30  10   0
BRD  54  70  54  73 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  50  70  52  72 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  50  71  52  72 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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