000
FXUS63 KDLH 260535 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH EASTERLY
FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5 TO 8KFT BY EVENING FOR MOST
AREAS. KBRD WILL BE IMPACTED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AS WELL LATE IN
THE PERIOD TOWARD KBRD/KINL...BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS LOW ENOUGH
THAT WE DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW THINNING OF
MID LVL CLOUD MASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CU HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL WARMING OF BDRY LAYER. TEMPS
LINGER IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH MID TO UPPER 50S COMMON
INLAND.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN THIS PERIOD AS SFC/MID LVL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MAIN CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT AREA OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
LITTLE SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUITE UNSTABLE AND
POTENTIALLY VERY WET PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES
FROM A DRY SURFACE HIGH DOMINATED PATTERN TO A MEAN TROUGH/SW FLOW
PATTERN. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE
BATTLING THE ADVANCING MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH
DRY AIR TO THE EAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS...AND A MOIST S/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NOTORIOUSLY
TRICKY SET UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. THE
COMPLEXITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...TRACKING VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
STATES...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT MEANS THAT WE WILL NEED TO
GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION TENDING TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WET PATTERN WILL HOLD
FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME ONCE IT DEVELOPS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  44  61  50 /   0  10  30  50
INL  69  44  68  53 /   0  20  40  40
BRD  63  50  68  56 /  10  30  50  50
HYR  69  46  68  55 /  10  10  40  50
ASX  63  43  64  51 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE