Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
541 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Soggy conditions are in store for today, with cooler temperatures
for Saturday.

For today, a fast-moving mid-level shortwave, which is currently
located over north-central Montana as observed in the GOES-16
mid-level water vapor channel, will translate eastward over the
Northland late this morning and early afternoon, with an
associated surface cold front. Decent lift will accompany this
system, per the Thaler QG 850-300 mb omega progs, which will be
maximized this afternoon. The convective-allowing models are in
pretty good agreement on bringing a leading line of precipitation
later this morning, with some lingering activity this afternoon,
as the shortwave moves through. Increased the PoPs for today to
accommodate this agreement. Precipitation type should be in the
form of rain due to a warm thermal profile. A wintry mix will be
possible when the colder air behind the cold front finally arrives
later this evening, in the form of a drizzle/freezing
drizzle/rain/snow mix. Due to the very warm air mass in place
(with 925 mb temperatures progged between 4 to 10 degrees C above
zero this afternoon!), there should be some decent snow melt over
the region, which should result in some patchy fog, mainly over
our northern counties. Also, some gusty west to northwest winds
are expected today, mainly over northeast Minnesota, as the cold
front passes through. The NCAR ensembles and DLH WRF model are
both showing wind gusts up to 30 knots along the North Shore areas
this afternoon. These values appear to be an outlier compared to
the other guidance, but will still increase winds along the North
Shore to accommodate these values. Gusts could reach between 25 to
30 knots along the North Shore this afternoon.

Cooler temperatures will return tonight and Saturday as cold air
advection increases once the cold front passes through. 925 mb
temperatures will plummet to between 3 to 9 degrees C below zero.
There could be some slick roads tonight due to refreezing,
especially over the north, this evening as there should be a
chance of freezing drizzle possible. Lows tonight range between
the middle teens along the International Border, to the upper 20s
over the south.

A mostly dry day for Saturday, with cooler temperatures as highs are
forecast to range from the lower 20s over the tip of the Arrowhead
to the lower 30s over the southwest. Some light lake effect snow is
possible over the Lake Superior snow belt region due to the colder
850 mb temperatures settling into the region. Delta-Ts are looking
a bit marginal, with values around 15 degrees C below zero, but
northwest flow will lead to at least a small chance of snow
Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Fairly quiet extended period. A ridge builds Sunday into Tuesday for
quiet and warmer weather. A weak upper level trough approaches
Tuesday and brushes the area with some light precip - probably of
the frozen nature, but little if any accumulation expected.

A weak embedded upper low slides under an upper level ridge mid week
splitting most energy around the region. A weak cold front crosses
Thursday morning for some -shsn followed by stronger ridging to
finish out the week.

Models are in fair agreement so confidence is fairly high.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A decreasing threat for LLWS as stronger winds aloft move
eastward. Some winds are mixing down causing DLH to be fairly
strong sustained with some higher gusts into the 20s. VFR attm,
but a trend towards MVFR or isolated IFR as a cold front moves
through the region. Precip should be scattered and light. An
improvement to VFR again this afternoon.


DLH  44  23  30  21 /  50  10   0   0
INL  42  15  25  18 /  60  20   0   0
BRD  47  27  34  24 /  40   0   0   0
HYR  47  27  33  21 /  50  10   0   0
ASX  48  28  33  24 /  60  10  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.



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