Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 290900
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The pesky upper level low pressure looks to finally push east of
the forecast area today and allow for surface high pressure to
build into the state. Weak westerly flow and dry air looks to
provide one of the nicer days the state has experience in some
time. Hence, the main forecast concern was focused on temperatures
and how warm they will reach. Leaned slightly warmer than guidance
for max temperatures temperatures today with enough sunshine and
mixing. There is a weak shortwave cutting across Nebraska, but any
convection associated with this system has diminished. There maybe
a stray shower that skirts across the southwest this afternoon as
this shortwave moves through, but low confidence with anything
significant due lack of moisture and forcing available.


.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Warm advection and moisture transport will increase overnight
ahead of the next approaching shortwave. This will keep lingering
instability across the state overnight and combined with weak
forcing from the warm advection, may produce a few isolated storms
late tonight. Models diverge somewhat on Monday with GFS remaining
wet statewide as the NAM and EURO remain much drier. GFS has been
overly zealous on its QPF recently and easily convects with this
continuing with this system into early next week. Have gone with
the less ominous EURO/NAM solution and kept convection isolated to
scattered into Monday. Better forcing arrives late Monday night
into Tuesday with the approach of the upper trof. Convection is
expected to develop across the plains on Monday afternoon near the
surface boundary and advect eastward into the state late Monday
night. This convection will persist into Tuesday ahead of the
surface boundary with some threat of severe storms, albeit
somewhat limited given relatively weak shear and modest
instability.

The threat of precipitation will push east on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the system progresses to the east. Increasing
subsidence on backside of system along with cooler Canadian air
will end precipitation chances by Wednesday night with dry
conditions through the end of the work week. The next threat of
precipitation arrives toward next weekend...although coverage and
intensity appear limited given the relative lack of return flow
into the state.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Still watching for possibility of BR at KMCW, KALO, KDSM. Will
update if confidence of BR occurrence and, subsequently, MVFR
conditions inserted into TAFs. Confidence high in VFR conditions
returning by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Kotenberg


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