596
FXUS64 KLZK 150214 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
900 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a cut off upper
low over Missouri and northern Arkansas providing cold air aloft for
the development of rain shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
over the northern third of the state. No severe weather is expected
at this time, primarily owing to the relatively cool and dry-ish low-
level environment under the upper low. This hit and miss rain shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate after sunset
as the heating of the day is likely driving most of this
isolated/scattered convection. After sunset, the upper low is
expected to move east of Arkansas allowing skies to clear out
after midnight tonight. With the somewhat cooler day today across
the state, expect that patchy fog will set up in low-lying areas
and over areas near bodies of water late tonight or in the early
morning hours of the day on Wednesday. Don`t expect widespread fog
because moisture isn`t returning quickly to the state and we
haven`t had widespread heavy rainfall recently.

On Wednesday, aside from the morning patchy fog, mostly clear skies
are expected as a weak area of upper level ridging moves over the
state. Winds will generally be light across the area, becoming
southerly Wednesday evening as high pressure slides off to the east.

The next upper level storm system will move east over the Southern
Plains on Thursday, helping to ramp up southerly low-level winds
bringing Gulf moisture back over the state. Thursday morning may
once again see some patchy fog as moisture does return rapidly
across the state, so the cooler low-lying areas will likely fog up
once again, just for a different reason. Rain chances will increase
Thursday afternoon, but won`t really ramp up until after sunset on
Thursday as the upper level system gets close enough to spread large
scale forcing for ascent over Arkansas from west to east Thursday
evening and overnight.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trough will be over the Plains to begin the long term
period. This trough will move through Arkansas Friday and the
Midwest Saturday. An upper ridge will build over Arkansas Sunday and
Monday. An upper trough in the northern Plains will push the ridge
to the east Tuesday.

A warm front will lift north from Louisiana on Friday. This will
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. A cold front will move
through Arkansas Saturday pushing the rain to the east. Sunday and
Monday will be dry with high pressure over the area. A warm front
then moves through the state Tuesday and will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. A warming trend is expected Friday and
through the weekend with well above normal temperatures.

51

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are in the forecast tonight and Wednesday.
Isolated showers will dissipate overnight. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible in places toward dawn Tuesday due to
patchy fog/low clouds. Winds will be west/northwest at 4 to 8 knots
tonight, and 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  83  62  87 /  10   0  10  30
Camden AR         57  87  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       56  80  61  81 /  10   0  20  40
Hot Springs AR    58  87  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  62  86  64  88 /  10   0   0  10
Monticello AR     61  87  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      56  88  62  86 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  20  40
Newport AR        60  81  62  86 /  10   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     61  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   57  85  62  87 /  10   0   0  20
Searcy AR         59  83  62  86 /  10   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      61  83  64  86 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...46