913
FXUS64 KLZK 082329
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Data from local radars indicate that the forecast area is
currently precipitation free. Activity in central and southwest
Missouri continues to slowly increase in coverage and intensity.

Forecasts continue to reflect expected convective evolution this
afternoon and evening.

A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to promote
explosive convective development this afternoon. The convection
then should form in a linear fashion, as it approaches the
forecast area. Instability and vertical wind profiles support
thunderstorms capable of all hazards late this afternoon and
evening. Of particular note is a near term parameter space
supporting giant hail in the western half of the forecast area.

This thunderstorm episode should move south and east of the
forecast area by sunrise Thursday. The previously mentioned front
will be in the vicinity of southern sections to support widely
scattered shower development Thursday afternoon.

Expect noticeably drier and cooler conditions for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

High pressure will accompany the upper level ridge as it attempts to
build over the Southern Plains. This will provide a continued chance
of cooler and drier air for the majority of the weekend with max/min
temperatures ranging about 5-7 degrees below seasonal normals. Rain
chances will be re-introduced by the second half of Sunday as the
Southwest flow returns and Gulf moisture returns to the midsouth.
The GFS is indicating a cutoff low to move right over North Arkansas
on Tuesday with a brief clearing ahead of the next weather system
expected in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to sweep across
Arkansas from northwest to southeast during Wednesday evening into
the early morning hours on Thursday. CIGS and VSBY will possibly
drop to as low as IFR flight category as the line of thunderstorms
impacts sites from northwest to southeast across the state. After
the passage of the thunderstorm activity, winds will become
variable, before becoming established by Thursday mid-day out of the
north-north east to north-northwest. CIGS behind the storm activity
should improve to VFR by Thursday afternoon across the southeastern
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  84  55  76 /  70  10  10   0
Camden AR         67  86  60  79 /  70  20  30   0
Harrison AR       55  77  51  72 /  70   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    64  85  58  79 /  60  20  30   0
Little Rock   AR  68  86  60  78 /  80  10  20   0
Monticello AR     70  88  62  78 /  70  20  40   0
Mount Ida AR      63  85  57  79 /  60  20  20   0
Mountain Home AR  57  79  51  73 /  80   0  10   0
Newport AR        65  83  56  75 /  70  10  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  85  60  77 /  80  10  30   0
Russellville AR   61  84  56  78 /  60  10  10   0
Searcy AR         65  84  56  76 /  80  10  20   0
Stuttgart AR      68  84  60  75 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...74