Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...PUSHING
NEWD AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INTO DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KECG AND KSBY FOR PASSING BRIEF SHOWERS. EXPECT
LITTLE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN SHOWERS. OVC DECK REMAINS 8-12K FT
AGL. A LOWER DECK OF 4-6K FT AGL IS LIFTING INTO NE NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MORE IN NE NC AND SE VA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL
RESIDES AT KECG...BUT HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH KORF. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH OF SEEING PRECIP. SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP


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