Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN
SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







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