Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WX THIS EVE. SFC HI RMNS OFF THE MDATCL CST. MILD NGT W/
LGT S WNDS AND SLO RISE IN DEWPTS. MSTLY SKC WITH LO TEMPS U50S-
L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PROVIDES SUMMER LIKE CNDTNS THRU THE PRD. A WEAK TROF
DVLPS TUE...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO HOLD
TOGETHER E OF THE MTS. A MORE DEFINED LEE TROF PROGGED WED AFTRN.
THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ADVANCING MSTR FROM THE OHIO/TN VLLY
SHUD ALLOW FOR SCT AFTRN/EVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT.
KEPT 20-30 POP WED ALONG/W OF I95 CORRIDOR. HIGHS EACH DAY M-U80S
W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES JUST
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. SE-SW FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATL REGION. WIND WILL BE SLIGHTLY GUSTY
UP TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ONLY SCT CU AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD IS FORECAST IN THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN SE AND SW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA MAINLY OVER THE BAY
DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WERE APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS MAINLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE BAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...SCA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS HAVE FAILED TO INCREASE ABOVE 2 FEET. A
GRADUAL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT IS INDICATED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...LSA



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