Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHWRS OVR ALBEMARLE SND HAVE DISSIPATED. SHWRS IVOF SFC T ROF
ACROSS MD XPCTD TO CONT INTO THE EVE.

WEAK SFC BNDRY / TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRS OVR THE MTS. MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE MSTR ASSCTD
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE NRN NECK ON NE
ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE ISLTD SHWRS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
TMPS DROP NICELY GIVEN THE LWR DP TMPS. M CLR SOUTH TO PT CLDY
NORTH. NAM SUGGESTS SOME PTCHY FOG DVLPNG OVR THE NW PIEDMONT
AFTR MIDNIGHT MAINLY NW OF RIC. LOWS M-U60S W OF THE CHES BAY...
U60S- L70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...MAS


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