Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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