Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 291927
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
A weak frontal boundary will linger over the area through
Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered
across the eastern states this weekend into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A subtle reduction in heights (weak troughing aloft) coupled with
light N-NW winds and a good amount of clouds today have helped to
finally curb max temps back down to normal levels. As expected,
there are a few showers showing up on radar this afternoon,
primarily along and east of I-95. Will keep low PoPs (20%) in the
forecast thru this evening, then any pcpn will diminish after
sunset. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
For this weekend...a broad trough of low pressure currently over
the Midwest will slide east and take up residence over the eastern
Conus. Mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible both days with PoPs in the 30-50% range. With the trough
in place will also see temps remain close to normal. Highs
Sat/Sun from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south. Lows Sat
night in the 70s.
The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sun
night into Monday helping to drive a cold front through the area
by midday Monday. Pcpn chances Mon will be greatest over the
southern half of the area, so will indicate chc pops (30%) there.
Slight chc pops elsewhere. Highs again from the upr 80s to low
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the
Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing
out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the
Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This
will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across
far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary.
With sfc high pressure building into New England early in
the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the
second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more
seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and
cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively
squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90
degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are
expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus
enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints,
and overall precip chances.
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Will carry VCSH across sern TAF sites next few hrs per current
radar trends. Stubborn MVFR SC slow to break up across the area
but do expect all sites to become VFR under a SCT-BKN CU deck.
CU dissipate after sunset with only high level clouds thru the
overnight period. Some patchy fog possible late tonight at SBY.
OUTLOOK...There is a better chance (40-50%) of shras/tstms both
days this weekend with a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity.
Periods of mvfr/ifr conditions are possible in any tstms.
Nw-n winds averaging 5-10kt prevail this aftn with only a
slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening. Winds
become more ne tonight and then e on Sat as high pressure
builds across se Canada. Speeds will continue to average
5-10kt during this time. A front over NC tonight is
expected to lift north Sat into Sat night with the wind
becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the
region Sun into Mon and then slowly pushes off the coast
Mon night into Tue. High pressure returns to the waters
on Wed. There is a good chance for thunderstorms (30-40%)
each aftn/evening Sat through Tue...with a slight chance
for far srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound on Wed.
Seas will average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves
in the Bay.