Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SE VA/NE NC BORDER BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA. THE
LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO LIFT/SCATTER
OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS, SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION IS RATHER WEAK TODAY, AS FORCING REMAINS WELL BACK
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
REMOVED POP FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BUT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY SE OF A
WILLIAMSBURG TO JACKSON.

OVERALL, A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON, WITH AFTN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTH (ALONG WITH EASTERN SHORE AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS)...WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LWR 90S
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO
INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY AFTN...HAVE 30
PERCENT POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES NORTH TO NEAR
CAROLINE COUNTY AND ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...MAINLY FROM THE
GFS...OF SOME PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN
ARE 30 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTN WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK).

AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR
TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER
HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST
LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30%
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED.

BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST
DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT
DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI
(COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 10 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY AS FLOW
VEERS TO THE S-SE OVER THE WATER. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...REMAINING SUB-SCA. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S-SE FLOW CHANNELING UP
THE BAY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT). HOWEVER...HEADLINES NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT...BUT PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW
COULD PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO
3-4 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO REACH THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM





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