Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WX MORE TYPICAL OF MID JULY THIS AFTN...W/ VRB CLDS/PSNY
CONDS...MODERATE HUMIDITY AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE M/U80S
(INLAND)...U70S TO L80S RIGHT AT THE CST. AS XPCD...BULK OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTN S OF THE VA/NC W/ ISOLD SHRAS FOUND TO THE N
INTO INTERIOR VA. THROUGH THE EVE...WILL HOLD ONTO 30-40% FM
INTERIOR SE VA S ACRS INTERIOR NE NC...W/ 15-20% POPS TO ABT A
ORF-RIC-LKU LINE. THE PCPN LIKELY TO WANE OVRNGT...W/ CONDS AVGG
P/MCLDY. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W/ SFC HI PRES SETTLING OFF THE SE CONUS CST ON WED...INCRSG/DP
LYRD SSWLY FLO WILL PUSH HOTTER AIR INTO THE RGN. HANGING ONTO
20-30% POPS...PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...OTRW AVGG PSNY. LO
LVL MIXING (W/ SSWLY WNDS) SHOULD LWR DEWPTS IN THE AFTN
HRS...PREVENTING HEAT INDICES FM RISING TO/ABV 100F. NEXT TROUGH
TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE
NE/MID ATLC REGIONS WED INTO WED NGT...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC COLD
FRONT TWD THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE MNLY 90 TO 95F INLAND...85 TO
90F NR THE CST.

TIMING OF NEXT CDFNT INTO/ACRS THE FA WILL BE PRIMARY FCST
CONCERN THU INTO FRI. 12Z/22 NAM/GFS ARE A TAD SLOWER THAN THEIR
00Z RUNS W/ PUSHING THE CDFNT SE THROUGH THE FA. HAVE NUDGED POPS
A LTL HIGHER ACRS THE FA ON THU DUE TO SLOWER TIMING (STILL 50%
FAR N...60% CNTRL/S)...THOUGH THAT TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC
ANYWAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP CNTRL VA) WHERE PCPN DEFICITS
PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES. THE CDFNT SETTLES S INTO
NRN NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI...THEN IS VERY SLO TO PUSH S OF THERE
(TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR) DURING REST OF THE DAY FRI. FOR
BULK OF FA...XPCG DRYING FM THE N AND W AS SFC HI PRES
(1016-1020MB) BUILDS INTO RGN FM THE OH VLY. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30%
POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NC ON FRI...OTRW P/MSNY W/ DEWPTS
FALLING.

LO TEMPS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L70S. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/U80S
N...U80S TO L90S S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK
NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF
AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL
CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 15-25 HUNDRED FT PREVAILED NEAR ORF AND ECG AT
23Z. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING
OUT ...SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY DID MONDAY EVENING. THE TEMPERATURE DEW
POINT SPREADS ARE A FEW DEGREES GREATER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ALTHOUGH
THIS IS DUE TO THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
TODAY WHILE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN AT 23Z
MONDAY. ALSO PLAYED SBY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH LIFR DEVELOPING
AROUND 09-10Z. PHF AND RIC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR A 5
MILE VSBY AT RIC AFT 09Z.

MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION IS PSBL
WEDNESDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT ECG.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY/VFR WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PSBL FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS RETURNING.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WILL APPEND AMD NOT SKED TO KSBY TAF UFN.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE NC COAST WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND LASTS UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS AOB
10 KT CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT....THEN REMAIN
SW 10 TO 15 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N-NE AOB 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AGAIN AOB 15 KT BY THIS WEEKEND. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PROBABLY NOT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EITHER. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS DEPICTION FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-3 FT
BUILDING TO ~4 FT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WINDS
BECOME N-NE FRIDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM





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