Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260123
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
923 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather into
Wednesday bringing warm and dry afternoons, and foggy nights.
Wednesday, a cold front will push through the area with a
chance of showers. Cooler air will follow the front later in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
925 PM update...
Fog will develop between 1 AM and 3 AM and quickly become dense
in the river valleys, reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less
in spots. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid- 60s.

550 PM EDT Update...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Forecast is
in great shape. So far, two record high temps were broken
today. The first one was set at Binghamton, 87, the old record
was set in 2007. The second record was broken today at Avoca,
92, the old record was 89, set in 1908. For more information
about the forecast, please read the previous forecast discussion
below.

Previous forecast discussion below...
Massive ridge locked between Maria and northern stream systems
over Canada will move little before Wednesday. This will keep
the warm and dry weather in the near term, although some
weakening of the ridge is evident on Tuesday which may result in
slightly lower afternoon highs. Still, record or near record
highs are possible tomorrow afternoon.

Light winds and dew points in the mid and upper 60s will result
in another round of dense fog overnight, especially in the
valleys Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridge will begin to subside across the Northeast as
a weak cold front slides in from the west across the Great
Lakes and Maria approaches nwd along the Atlantic coast. Much of
NY/PA will be situated between these features and remain in a
fairly warm unstable s/swly flow into Wednesday. Will likely see
temperatures into the 80s once again, with dew points in the
60s making it feel quite humid for the last week of September.
The front moving in from the west will be the main forcing
mechanism for showers and possibly a few storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Around 100-400 J/kg of ML CAPE will be
accompanied by 30 kt of deep shear. However limiting factor will
be lack of deep moisture and weak L57 lapse rates. For these
reasons, don`t think thunderstorms will be too widespread and
will remain below severe levels.

The main result of the cold front will be to kick Maria further to the
east away from the coast, and also to usher in a much cooler air
mass. The synoptic flow behind the front will remain cyclonic and
cool aloft...which will likely promote isolated rain
showers into Thursday...mainly for central NY. Temperatures will be
more seasonal Thursday as well with highs in the mid to upper
60s...close to 70. Dew points in the upper 40s and lower
50s...and breezy n/nw winds will make it feel more like Fall
too.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak ridging aloft Thursday night should keep weather
conditions quiet before the next s/w rotates sewd around the
base of a long wave trough over much of ern Canada and the
Northeast. This wave will bring additional chances for light
rain showers Friday and Saturday, but with minimal precipitation
expected as the air mass will be quite dry. The trough will
also have a re-enforcing shot of cool Canadian air with
it...which will adjust temperatures down even more. Highs on
Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s...and on Saturday in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower
to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will bring another mainly clear night and foggy
morning to our forecast terminals. River valley fog will form
between 5z and 7z, affecting KELM and KITH. KELM will see
visibility restrictions of 1/4SM to 3/4SM in the predawn hours,
with ceilings of 100-200 feet between 8z and 12z.

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast for Tuesday.
Outlook...

Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning...VFR except for
fog possible late night/early morning, especially at KELM but
for other terminals as well at times.

Midday Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP



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