Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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475
FXUS61 KBGM 011931
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
331 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue for the remainder of this weekend
into Monday as a slow moving upper level low dominates our
weather. This low will keep a chance for showers in the forecast
through Monday evening. Drier conditions are expected to return by
the middle of the week as high pressure takes control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Radar imagery shows showers mainly over central and north central
PA early this afternoon associated with a plume of moisture seen
on the water vapor imagery. This moisture was associated with a
short wave that was riding north on the east side of the upper
level low over northern Indiana. These showers will move north for
the rest of this afternoon and affect mainly the central southern
tier of NY, western Finger lakes of NY and Bradford county PA in
the BGM forecast area. So have chance to likely POPs in these
areas for the rest of the afternoon.

For this evening, followed the HRRR which eventually brings this
plume of moisture and associated showers farther east to the I-81
corridor by around 00z-02z and then to the Catskills to upper
Mohawk Valley by 06z. Leaned heavily on the HRRR for hourly POP
timing. Used HRRR, plus blended with neighboring offices. Also
broadened the chances for light precipitation tonight as there
will be patchy drizzle as well with continued low-level south-
southeasterly flow and upsloping. Hence keep overcast skies in
through the night as there is little chance for any significant
breaks in the overcast to form given the present low-level flow
pattern. After 06z see just patchy drizzle or light showers and
have trended down POPs from west to east. Highest chances for
precipitation will be in the Catskills to upper Mohawk Valley late
tonight where there will be the most upslope.

Then for Sunday, low-level winds turn more southwesterly which
should lead to some breaks in the overcast. The upper level low
moves east and reaches the eastern Great Lakes between 21Z and
00Z. This will lead to more showers spreading into the Finger
Lakes late in the day. With the lower clouds breaking up chances
for drizzle will wane Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

Good model agreement with an upper level low moving slowly east
across upstate NY Sunday night to Monday night. Showers will
remain across the area into Monday evening. Some diurnal
thunderstorms also possible in the afternoon and evening both days
with some surface heating and cold air aloft. Best chances of
showers and thunderstorms in central NY. Rainfall less than half
an inch for this period. Deeper moisture stays to the southeast of
the cwa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM Saturday update...

Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. Tuesday to
Thursday surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft.
Temperatures stay above normal.

Thursday night into the weekend has much uncertainty. Hurricane
Matthew is moving north up the east coast. By Wednesday WPC has
this off of North Carolina. GFS has a faster and further west
track while Euro is off the coast with rain not in the CWA. The
Canadian is wide right. The track will greatly depend on the speed
of the approaching upper level trough and surface cold front. This
cold front in central NY and central PA on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Terminals will remain IFR to MVFR through the forecast period as a
very moist low-level south-southeasterly flow remains in place
through Sunday morning. CIGs and VSBYs peak in the afternoon late
this afternoon and then drop to IFR all TAFs late tonight. As the
low-level winds turn more southwesterly above the surface layer
later Sunday morning we see some breaks developing in clouds but
CIGs will struggle to reach MVFR in most terminals before 18z.

Winds will remain east to southeasterly around 5 to 12 knots
through the period.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday afternoon-Monday...Occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and scattered showers.

Tuesday-Thursday...Mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJN



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