Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 262049
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
349 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Tennessee Valley will move off the mid
Atlantic coast on Monday and provide mild temperatures both
Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday a system moving
through the central Great Lakes will bring the area showers and
possibly thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered flurries and snow showers will end soon across
central New York as a southwest flow of drier air overspreads
the region. Lingering lake effect snow showers in Oneida County
will continue lifting north and weakening through early evening.
Surface ridging and moderating southwest flow will clear skies
out this evening. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
in the western Catskills to around 30 in the lake plain.
Temperatures in the lake plain will hold steady or rise
slightly.

Monday...Surface high pressure will move off the east coast
continuing a mild southwest flow over the region. A weak
surface trough moving through southern Ontario will bring more
clouds and possibly some flurries to northern Oneida County.
Rest of forecast area will be partly to mostly sunny. High
temperatures will range from the middle 40s to around 50.

Monday night...A weak mid level wave and isentropic lift will
spread clouds and some very light precipitation across primarily
the central and northern forecast area. Will continue with
slight chance/chance pops. Precipitation type could be either
light rain/snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern turns unsettled once again as a long wave trough sets up
over the central CONUS with deep SW flow. This will steer a
series of disturbances through the area Tuesday into Wednesday
resulting in several bouts of rain and showers along with mild
temperatures and even the chance of more thunderstorms
Wednesday. The forecast models continue to struggle with the
timing details of these waves however overall trend will be for
an initial very weak wave to be passing through the area by
around 12z Tuesday along a warm front. This may touch of a few
flurries or showers. After this time, there will be a break
before the next wave arrives late day bringing a better chance
of showers. The warm front will be lifting north through the day
and this will result in highs jumping into the 50s.

As discussed above, showers with 2nd wave move through Tuesday
night with very mild overnight lows for this time of year as the
area will be in the warm sector as surface low tracks through
the midwest into the Great Lakes. By Wednesday morning,
unseasonable airmass will be across the area once again with 850
mb potentially pushing close to 10 C. This will be driven by
very strong SW flow in the low to mid levels with 850 mb winds
around 50 knots. As we go beyond this time, forecast for
Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. Low pressure at the
surface is progged to track from Ontario in Quebec and this will
drag a cold front across the area late day. Ahead of the front,
temperatures look to once again surge into the 60s with both NAM
and GFS indicating the potential for a few hundred J/kg of ML
CAPE by late day along with deep layer shear of 60-70 knots.
There are still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast details
with forecast confidence not yet high but these parameters
indicate there may be a potential for a few strong thunderstorms
with gusty winds once again in showers ahead of the front. Also,
anomalously high PWATs reaching around 1 inch once again,
indicate heavy rain potential will have to be monitored as well.
Will introduce these potential hazards in the HWO but again,
still a lot of uncertainty at this juncture. Following the
passage of the front late Wednesday, colder air with
showers/storms mixing with and changing to snow showers will
follow later Wednesday night into early Thursday.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Progressive / changeable pattern continues through the long
range with a cold trough in the east early in the period being
replaced by ridging and milder temperatures by the end of next
weekend.


Behind the cold front, Thursday will be gusty and much colder
with some scattered rain/snow showers and temperatures holding
in the 30s due to cold advection. A cold night will follow for
Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s.
For Friday, a weak wave passing through the base of the long
wave trough may bring a few flurries or snow showers but this
does not look to be significant.

For next weekend, cold and mainly dry conditions under high pressure for
Saturday looks to give way to milder temperatures next Sunday
as a warm front moves through. This front may bring a few
rain/snow showers.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Occasional MVFR snow showers will continue at KRME/KITH through
mid afternoon. Otherwise clearing conditons are expected from
southwest to northeast late this afternoon. Low VFR conditions
will scatter out late this afternoon with high clouds
overnight. On Monday VFR conditions will continue with sct/bkn
mid level clouds.

Westerly winds at 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots decreasing
later this afternoon and becoming southwest at 5-10 knots for
the remainder of the period.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night-Tuesday...Possible restrictions in light rain or
snow showers.

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Thursday...Possible restrictions in light rain or snow
showers.

Friday...Possible restrictions in light snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM


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