Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280256
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1056 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS STILL IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO MATCH
REALITY. TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE 20S TO 30S THIS EVENING. TEMP
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF, SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
ACCUMS HERE OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S DUE TO
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TO JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. DUE TO WELL MIXED LOW
LEVELS IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 20S WITH LOWER 30S IN THE WARMER VALLEY
AREAS OF NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THEN ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 5 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE. A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC TROF CROSSES THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE. MINOR
SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE. SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST RELAXES SOMEWHAT FOR THE LONG RANGE
BRINGING GENERALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS DUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GLANCING SHOT OF SOME COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
FLURRIES BEFORE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES IN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A LITTLE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE
NORTH. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN THIS WARM UP LOOKS TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EITHER LATE NEXT WEEK OR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SAT UPDATE... PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND FLRYS/-SHSN WILL
PREVAIL AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM THROUGH THE NGT...AND INTO SAT MRNG.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORESEEN BY SAT AFTN...AS CIG BASES ELEVATE
A BIT.

ELSEWHERE AT KELM/KRME/KAVP...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED.

N TO NWLY SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...AVERAGING 5-8 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN 8-12 KT SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT / SUN...VFR.

SUN NIGHT TO TUES...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






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