Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291406
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this afternoon,
especially in northeast Pennsylvania with conditions drying out
tonight. A cooler but more active air mass will settle in this
weekend and persist into early next week with scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 am update...
Models show limited instability this afternoon with CAPES between
500 J/Kg and 1000 J/Kg mainly in northeast PA and at or below 500
J/Kg in central NY. Water vapor imagery shows a small not well-
defined wave moving east to be nearly coincident with the maximum
heating. Models are nebulous on any wave for today as convection
in the models dominate. Given this have highest chance for any
activity around 20-21z with the diurnal max in heating and focus
chance for northeast PA and slight chance into the southern tier
of NY. Farther north left precipitation out as CAPEs are lower.

345 am update...

Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the early
morning rain across the Poconos and southern Catskills moving
eastward by mid morning...redevelopment of scattered afternoon
showers and weak storms over the southern tier of NY and ne
PA...quiet weather most of tonight and the initial onset of the
next low pressure system early Sat morning.

Broad cyclonic flow remains in place across the NE this morning as a
surface low embedded within the flow moves through the mid-Atlantic
states off the coast. The northern edge of this sfc low has
developed a weak deformation zone that is rotating ewd through ne PA
and sern NY with widespread rain and only a few isolated weak
embedded storms. Rainfall amounts through this morning are not
expected to be more than an additional quarter of an inch from
Hazleton to Scranton to Port Jervis...so have decided to cancel the
Flash Flood Watch. As this system exits quickly to the east much of
the region will likely scatter out cloud cover. As this happens the
combination of modest residual deep layer moisture...pwats around
1.2-1.5 inches...and a slightly unstable air mass will trigger a
round of afternoon showers and storms across central NY and
portions of ne PA. ML CAPE values around 500 J/kg and a weakly
sheared environment will limit the intensity of any storm that
does form. Severe weather is not expected.

A slightly drier air mass builds in tonight along with a weak
surface high and ridging aloft. Skies should remain partly to mostly
clear early tonight, but will quickly fill in with clouds after
midnight on the leading edge of the next approaching low pressure
system from the sw. Will start to introduce slight chance pops early
Sat morning across the southern counties.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with
highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower/mid 80s. Depending on
how much clearing there is tonight...temperatures will drop into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. If more clearing occurs in the evening and
early overnight hours...lower to mid 50s may not be out of the
question.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A diffuse area of low pressure sliding northward through PA and MD
will pull showers and thunderstorms into our region on Saturday.

Marginal instability will develop from the mid-Atlantic up through
southern PA, but at this point it doesn`t appear the best
instability values will reach our FA. Therefore the potential for
vigorous convection is minimal.

Based on the latest model guidance, it appears a quarter to a half
inch of rain could fall along the twin tiers southward, providing
a little relief to the very dry conditions.

An upper atmospheric trough will dip across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday and spread additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms across NY and PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper-level ridging will be building east across the area during
this period. Scattered showers may linger into Monday in
association with a weak upper trough over the eastern U.S., then
conditions should trend warmer and dryer Tuesday into Thursday as
the ridge builds east across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies have cleared out behind the departing system this morning
and have allowed for a brief period of IFR low clouds and vsbys
in fog. After the fog mixes out after 13Z conditions will remain
VFR with mostly sunny skies. There is a chance of scattered
convective showers and weak storms from around 17-22Z. Not
confident and should be widely scattered enough to add to latest
forecast. High level clouds begin to increase late tonight and Sat
morning. Also added mention of IFR vsbys in fog at AVP Sat
morning.

Winds will be light and variable through 12Z, shortly after
sunrise winds will become N around 6-12 knots. Winds will become
light and variable tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sat - Tues... Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DJN
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJT/KAH


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