Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 111935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
330 PM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. BELIEVE WE MIGHT JUST BE TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS.


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT TO BECOME WASHED OUT IN THE FLOW ALOFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPR LVL TROUGH DID MANAGE TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS YESTERDAY WAS SLIM AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY ARE EVEN MORE SLIM. TODAY
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPR LVL TROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT... MAINLY
OVER NE PA... BUT IT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THAT
BEING SAID THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ARE VERY
SMALL BUT DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL HEATING... CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. IF SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO OVERCOME THE
SUBSIDENCE... THEY WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST PA WHERE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY BUT EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOISTURE OVERALL IS FAIRLY LIMITED. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO REACH THE EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL BY 00Z SAT. A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LOW LVL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT AND VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BECOME AS THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ALOFT AND CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS THE
LOW LVL WINDS BACK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SAT
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITHIN GUIDANCE ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND WHEN THIS WAVE PASSES. IF THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TOO QUICKLY WE MAY REMAIN DRY AND IF IT MOVES
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY WE MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SUN AND MON. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY... A STRONG MID LVL VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH. A
STRONG LOW LVL JET WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE 35
KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE LOW LVL BUT WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. THIS INDICATES MORE OF A RAIN EVENT THAN SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FIRST FORCEFUL WAVE... BUT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
UPPR LVL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERENT
VIEWS ON WHICH THIS OCCURS. THIS BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE TO LINGER
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS IS AT THE
TIME OF FROPA. THIS FAR OUT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE THERE STILL
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT REST OF PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. HIGH TEMPS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, FEW/SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AROUND
5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SCATTERED CI. AT KELM,
OCCASIONAL IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BKN CIGS AROUND 4-5K FT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING S/SW ON SATURDAY
AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUN THROUGH TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

TUE NIGHT/WED...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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