Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN



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