Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 061101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FOR TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SATURDAY
WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM...NOT MUCH GOING ON CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY STILL OVER SE CONUS WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EAST OF
THE DELMARVA. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM JUST APPROACHING
THE JERSEY SHORE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND N/W OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. EXPECT THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR NE PA ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE PUSHING N/W REACHING THE ROUTE 17 / I88
CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, EVEN FAR N/W
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO
ALL IN ALL, AN INCREASINGLY WET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE A LOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW
BEING PULLED N/W TOWARD SE PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOCATED OFF TO OUR SOUTH WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEST CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AS WELL HOWEVER WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF NE PA ZONES INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY. CLOUDS/RAIN
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S
OVER THE FAR NORTH SINCE RAIN WON`T MOVE IN UNTIL LATE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT, STACKED SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT RAIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING TO
JUST A FEW SHOWERS BY THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS BY THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE MAINLY A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER NE
PA WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE N/W BY LATE DAY. MOIST S/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING,
WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S...COOLEST EAST AND WARMEST WEST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT...MOSTLY A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. ALSO, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
ELEVATED AND VERY MINIMAL SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY WILL BE GUSTY AND COOL WITH A BRISK NW
FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
S/E COULD TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY DAY.

WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS WEAK
NARROW SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND. GENERAL IDEA REMAINS
THE SAME AS DISCUSSED BELOW...THOUGH CURRENT RUNS OF GFS-ECMWF-
CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT-WED TIME PERIOD. I HAVE PUT IN A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON TIMING FOR THAT WAVE.

THE ASSOCIATED WAVE MAY BE SHARP ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY DRIVE IN A
DRIER CANADIAN AIR BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. I DID NOT
COMPLETELY REMOVE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT HAVE ONLY
20-30 PCT RANGE. IF UPCOMING RUNS HOLD THIS TREND...WE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MULTP UPPR LVL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH EACH PASSING SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
AGREEMENT OF THE WHEN EACH WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION...THUS KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH 40 POP CHANCE IN FORECAST AS THE
TIMING IS VERY DIFFERENT WITH EACH SYSTEM WITH THE THE GFS/ECMWF.
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC/SUPER BLEND FOR FORECAST. TEMPS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BACK IN OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST...GRADUALLY SPREADING SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
REGION TODAY. DURING THE MORNING...MOST TERMINALS WILL BE
VFR...EXCEPT KAVP WILL DIP INTO HIGH END MVFR WITH THE EARLIER
START TIME ON SHOWERS...AT KBGM JUST PRIOR TO NOON. SHOWERS
ADVANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TERMINALS...KITH-KELM EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY KSYR-KRME LATE AFTERNOON. AS RAIN DURATION
MOISTENS THINGS...CONDITIONS WILL END UP DETERIORATING TO FUEL ALT
CIGS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. KAVP-KBGM SHOULD BE
TEETERING FROM LOW END MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 9 KTS TODAY...THEN ESE OR VARIABLE 5
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUN NGT-MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP


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