Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272336
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
736 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers will taper off this evening.
Afterwards, Friday through the weekend looks mostly rain free,
as high pressure builds down from eastern Canada. The one
exception will be parts of northeast Pennsylvania, where light
rain may fall into Saturday, across areas mainly south of Wilkes
Barre and Scranton, on the outer edges of a coastal storm
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
630 pm update...did a quick upate to account for the showers
forming in Steuben County and the western Finger Lakes region.
This activity was forming in advance of a small short wave
moving southeast toward NY state in the presence of the day`s
heating. This wave will pass east and the heating of the day
will wane and hence the shower activity will taper down by late
evening. I also added patchy fog into our valley late tonight
as there will be some clearing combined with a very moist
boundary layer.

230 pm update... Steadier showers continue to exit stage right
late this afternoon. Developing breaks of sunshine across the
region have allowed the atmosphere to destabilize somewhat, with
ML CAPE values of 200-500 j/kg. This, along with the approach of
a short-wave from the northern Great Lakes region, may cause
isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms to re-develop, and
then persist into the early evening.

Later tonight, conditions should become generally rain-free,
with partly cloudy skies most areas. Given the anticipated
breaks in cloud cover and saturated ground conditions, the re-
development of lower stratus clouds and fog seem like a good
bet. Although fog can`t be ruled out anywhere, it will likely be
most dense in the river valleys of the twin tiers. Lows by
daybreak should range from the upper 50s-mid 60s.

Friday-Friday night, model trends continue to show the main
threat of heavy rainfall shifting well south and east of our
forecast area, across southern PA, NJ, and perhaps into southern
New England, in association with a sharp upper trough and
developing surface wave along the east coast. The outer
periphery of the steadier rainfall may scrape parts of NEPA,
thus we`ll continue with chance-likely probabilities for light
rain (40-60%). Farther north into CNY, rain-free weather is
foreseen.

Highs Friday will be in the 70s, with lows Friday night in the
50s-lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern this period will continue to be monitoring closed
low south of the region that will continue to brush our
southern zones. To begin the period Saturday morning, the low
looks to be situated near the Delmarva. Heavier rain will be
affecting areas around the Jersey coast at this time with a
little light rain possibly continuing to affect NE PA into
Saturday morning, especially south of I-84. The twin tiers
region northward looks to be mainly dry but it will be close and
at this point indications are the low will at least be close
enough to bring considerable mid and high cloudiness as far
north as central NY zones and this will keep temperatures down.
Highs look to be mainly in the low to mid 70s and be accompanied
by a fairly breezy NE wind so not exactly a hot summer day.

Any lingering light rain over NE PA tapers off by late day
Saturday with clearing skies to follow for Saturday night. Lows
will be mainly in the low to mid 50s.

Sunday...high pressure looks to finally build in as the low to
the south moves away and this will bring mainly sunny skies but
continuing cooler than average temperatures for this time of
year. Highs will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through
Monday bringing mainly clear skies with seasonal temperatures.
Lows will be in the 50s with highs generally around 80. Heading
toward the middle of next week, a disturbance moving through the
upper level flow could spark a few isolated to scattered storms
by Tuesday afternoon across central NY but otherwise mostly dry
weather looks to predominate. A cold front will then move in by
next Wednesday bringing a better chance for more widespread
showers and storms which could last into Thursday. Temperatures
will generally remain around seasonal for the long range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A small cluster of showers could bring a brief period of rain to
ELM through 02z and at BGM between 01z and 03z, otherwise VFR
conditions can be expected through this evening with scattered
clouds. Areas of MVFR conditions will develop after 06z with
localized IFR conditions in low clouds and fog between 08z and
12z. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid-morning. Rain over
southern Pennsylvania will move north with some showers possible
at AVP by late in the day Friday otherwise dry conditions will
hold through the day Friday farther north. Winds will be light
and variable tonight becoming northeast at 5 to 10 kts on
Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday-Monday...Outside of early morning fog (mostly KELM),
mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE/TAC



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