Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 291136
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...UP OVER THE TUG
HILL REGION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 AM UPDATE... DISORGANIZED -SHSN/FLRYS CONTINUE THIS MRNG ACRS
OUR FAR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL COLD AIR AND A 290-300 FLOW ELICITS A
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE. WE DON`T SEE MUCH CHG IN THIS PATN THROUGH
THE DAY...SO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS FLRYS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PTNS OF
CNY...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX FOR MUCH OF THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...WITH THICKER
CLDS DOWN OVER NE PA AND SULLIVAN NY CLEARING OUT AFTER 12-15Z.

GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF GRADUAL 925-850 MB CAA TDY...TEMPS WON`T
RISE VERY MUCH FROM THEIR PRESENT READINGS EARLY THIS MRNG...AND
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S THIS AFTN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2 AM UPDATE... FROM TNT INTO TUE EVE...WEAK/DISORGANIZED
-SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD PERSIST ACRS SXNS OF CNY...WITH FAIRLY LOW
INVERSION HGTS/MOISTURE DEPTHS...AS WELL AS TRANSITIONAL
FLOW...LIMITING LES POTENTIAL...DESPITE A GRADUAL INFUSION OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. ONCE AGN...FOR THE SRN TIER AND NE
PA...LOOK FOR DRY WX...UNDER PTLY SUNNY/PTLY CLDY SKIES.

LTR TUE NGT AND WED...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
BRIEF ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION OF A LES BAND...FROM OSWEGO
CNTY...INTO SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA. IT IS DURG THIS TIME FRAME THAT
A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES THE RGN...ACTING TO
ELEVATE CAPPING HGTS...INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTHS...AND PROVIDE SOME
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPWARD MOTION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
REACH -16 TO -18C THIS PD...AND THE MIXED LYR FLOW VECTOR LOOKS
FAIRLY STEADY STATE FROM 270-280. SOME OF OUR MODEL
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE 12 KM NAM...IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRIPE OF 3-6" SNOWFALL FROM ABT 06-18Z WED ACRS
NRN ONEIDA. AS A RESULT...WE`VE GONE AHD AND HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA
IN THE HWO.

SOME -SHSN/FLRYS OFF LK ERIE MAY ALSO REACH OUR FAR WRN ZNS LTR
TUE NGT AND WED...BUT ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN OFF THE
ERN/SERN END OF LK ONT. OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS...IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD...UNDER PTLY CLDY/PTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WED AFTN AND NGT...THE LOW-LVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK INTO A
240-260 TRAJ...WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIFT THE MORE PERSISTENT LES NWD...AND OUT OF
NRN ONEIDA...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING TO -SHSN/FLRYS. FARTHER
S...IT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LAKE EFFECT FAR NORTH TO START WITH THEN
POSSIBLE STORMS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY
SCENARIO. MODELS DO NOT AGREE...BUT TREND TO A BIGGER PRECIP EVENT
FOR SUNDAY AND NOT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WPC HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE CWA AND MOISTURE
RUNNING NE AHEAD OF IT. AS STARTED BELOW COULD BE A MIXED PRECIP
EVENT. SUNDAY STORM WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK WITH THE EURO WELL
SOUTH AND SNOW AND THE GFS TO THE WEST AND RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE SCALE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NY INTO THURSDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO NY/PA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY ARRIVE AS LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR LAKE EFFECT
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CIGS AT AROUND 4K FT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM 290 TO 310 THIS MORNING SENDING
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES INTO CENTRAL NY. SYR HAS MVFR CIGS NOW DUE TO
A WEAK BAND BUT THAT SHOULD DROP SOUTH BY 15Z. ITH AND BGM MAY
DROP TO MVFR CIGS MORE DUE TO ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO CAYUGA
LAKE AND ADDED MOISTURE. RME MAY ALSO DROP IF A BAND SETS UP.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT A TEMPO IN AT THESE SITES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. ELM AND AVP LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO WED NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR KRME/KSYR
AND MAYBE KITH/KBGM...DUE TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. OTHERWISE...VFR IS
EXPECTED.

THU TO FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW WITH COLD FRONT IN NY.
AVP...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.