Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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603
FXUS61 KBGM 291038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region
later today and tonight with heavy downpours. Before the storms
develop, another warm and humid day is expected. Drier and more
comfortable weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
450 AM update...
500 mb height falls along with plenty of instability will lead to
another round of showers and thunderstorms today, but should be
more widespread the past few days. From early afternoon through
early evening, the main area of focus will be across NY State.
Main threat will be heavy rain will plenty of moisture across our
area. By tonight the initial area of showers and storms may
diminish a bit, while a new area of moisture moves up the coast.
This area has tropical characteristics with Tropical Storm Bonnie
near the Carolinas, and a deep feed well south into the Atlantic.
Model guidance still indicates that the northern extent of this
may just brush NEPA and the Catskills, but it is just a tad
farther east than just 24 hours ago. Continued to highlight the
higher threat for rain here in the HWO, along with the forecast
itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
450 AM Update

A cold front moves through our area Monday, but the deeper
moisture will well east by the time it moves through. While
showers are possible across the area the first half of the day,
the risk for thunderstorms and a slightly better chance of rain
will occur later in the day over NEPA and the Catskills, as these
areas will have the best chance to destabilize some ahead of the
front. High pressure will bring drier and more comfortable weather
to our area Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM update...
No major changes to extended forecast. PoPs for Thursday night and
Friday were increased slightly given multi-model support for upper
support along cold frontal passage. This feature will break the
early season oppressive heat and humidity by next weekend.

320 pm update...

Another dome of high pressure aloft will build in from the S/SW over
the NE Tuesday night through Thursday night with quiet weather
conditions expected and moderate temperatures...highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s...and lows in the 50s. The ridge axis amplifies
and shifts to the east by Friday as the next upper level trough
drops in from the NW. This weekend system will have noticeably
cooler temperatures associated with it, along with additional chance
for showers and storms. Highs late this week will likely only reach
into the lower to mid 70s...with night time lows in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will be the prevailing condition today through at least early
this evening. Focus for convective thunderstorm activity is
increasing for the western and northern terminal locations this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance lifts northward out of
PA. Have now included potential for occasional TSRA in those
terminals for most of the afternoon as mesoscale models do insist
that this is a moderate confidence event. More widespread showers
and possibly some lingering thunder activity develops tonight as
initial moisture surge from TS Bonnie ejects northward. Continued
the VFR ceilings/visibilities, although there is some potential
for MVFR to develop within any rain and further saturation of the
moist boundary layer which will have to be monitored.

Winds light, becoming SW 5-10 KTS today, then generally variable,
or southerly tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Monday...Mostly VFR. Brief restrictions may occur in
showers/thunderstorms early Monday.

Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each
day.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...BJT/JAB
AVIATION...JAB



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