Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND QUIET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CRISP ARCTIC AIR. A
SOUTH WIND WILL TEMPORARILY BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 415 AM...OUTER RIM OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS NOW OVER HUDSON VALLEY
TO ADIRONDACKS..IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE DEPARTING NOR`EASTER.
THE SKY HAS CLEARED WITH SLACKENING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
DUE TO BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. STEUBEN COUNTY WINS THE COLD CONTEST THIS
MORNING...WITH COMBINATION OF FRESH FLUFFY LAYER OF RECENT
SNOW...CALM WIND...AND CLEAR SKY FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE NIGHT...THUS
MESONET TEMPERATURES IN ROUGHLY THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. FOR THE
REST OF OUR REGION...MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. WIND CHILLS GENERALLY BELOW ZERO YET NOT INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BELOW ZERO...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOT ISSUED. LIKELY A
DIFFERENT STORY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.

COLD YET CRISP ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S.

VERY ABRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKY...CALMING WIND...AND DRY
AIR. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY. WE ARE ALREADY
AIMING BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH THIS SET UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PRETTY BIG SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM RIDGE-TO-VALLEY. MANY
VALLEYS IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AND PERHAPS ALSO DEEPER VALLEYS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WILL PROBABLY GET BELOW ZERO...WITH
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS AT LEAST SINGLE DIGITS. TOWARDS DAWN...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH AT
LEAST IN OUR WESTERN ZONES-LAKE PLAIN WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BEGIN CREEPING UP FROM EARLIER LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WILL QUICKLY ZIP
OUR WAY TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT.

I HAVE FOLLOWED TREND OF LATEST SUITE OF MODELS...IN DELAYING
ONSET OF SNOW TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION COURTESY OF SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
THURSDAY...WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S-NEAR 30 RANGE BY
LATE THURSDAY...ALMOST TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL HIGHS. THAT IS AT
THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT ALSO WARMS VIA STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
/40-50 KTS AT 850MB/ WHICH WILL THICKEN PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THAT ALONG WITH BROAD LIFT IN
THAT LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ONE OR TWO LEAD SHORTWAVES PASS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH.
AT THIS TIME...LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE ARE
FIGURING ON 1-3 INCHES IN NORTHEAST PA TO SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY...AND MORE LIKE 2-4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY. UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST
THE TERRAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...4-6 INCHES OR SO.

THOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE A RATHER INTERESTING DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS WHILE
DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGH
PASSES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TREMENDOUSLY AS
FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING DOWN
GUSTY WINDS. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ALSO CRASH THROUGH
THE LOWEST 10 KFT AGL. PEAK GUSTS LOOK LIKELY INTO THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE THROUGH THE TEENS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. INSTABILITY OF LOWER ATMOSPHERE...COINCIDENT
WITH QUICKLY LOWERING DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AND INJECTION OF SOME
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE...SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH
MAY BE A BIT SQUALLY IN NATURE. SO AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ACCUMULATION TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...TO ADD TO THE AMOUNTS MENTIONED
ABOVE.

SO OVERALL...FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY WINTRY BRISK DAY WITH BLOWING
/AND OCCASIONALLY FALLING/ SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS GOING WELL
SUBZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED
CONSIDERING VALUES PROBABLY REACHING 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
WATCH OR WARNING /ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILLS MAY EXCEED 25 BELOW/ IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME ZONES SUCH AS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE FROM
12 HOURS AGO. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG STORM MOVING NE FROM TEXAS. BETTING
ON IT BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. GFS AND EURO HAVE 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE 0C IN NE PA BUT BELIEVE TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE
SE KEEPING THE WARMER AIR ALSO FURTHER SE. CONTINUED COLDER THAN
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY EARLY AND LATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD, NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN VERY COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE FORECAST PROFILES BEING TOO COLD
FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES
FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LIKELY ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

SKIES CLEAR NOW INTO TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COME IN LATE
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 KTS
LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 10 TO 20 KTS BGM/AVP DURING THE
AFTN. TONIGHT WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM.

OUTLOOK...

THU MORN AND EARLY AFTN...VFR.

THU LATE AFTN TO FRI MORN...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW.

FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
IN NY.

SAT TO  SAT NGT...BECOMING VFR.

SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW LATE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





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