Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221840
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will clear skies out tonight, allowing for a cool
and clear Tuesday morning. The next chance for showers will come
late Wednesday night or Thursday, as another wave of low
pressure tracks into NY state.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
212 PM update...

Showers are exiting the region at this time. The possibility for
isolated redevelopment exists through late afternoon before high
pressure nosing into NY and PA clears skies out for the
overnight.

With the ground saturated and very cool temperatures forecast
for tonight, it is likely fog will form Tuesday morning,
especially in the valleys.

The mid-week low swinging into the Great Lakes and NY is
forecast to move slower than previously thought, keeping our
weather dry through Tuesday night.


1025 AM update...

The area of showers moving out of Western New York is rapidly
diminishing in scope and intensity. As a result, we lowered POP
coverage through mid-afternoon and populated the grids with the
latest HRRR and RAP guidance, which appear to be handling the
situation well.

We are currently assessing maximum temperatures, which may need
to be raised if the rain doesn`t fill in or we receive a few
breaks of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
230 pm update... Model consensus has continued to throttle back
on the eastward movement of the next deep upper trough/upper low
to develop towards the middle of the week, within the persistent blocky
flow regime. As a result, it now appears that Wednesday will be
rain-free.

By later Wednesday night and Thursday, it looks more likely that
rain will spread into the region. Confidence in the
aforementioned upper trough/upper low evolution is high, but
confidence in the exact precipitation structure and amounts are
lower. One scenario points toward heavier rain axes both well
to our east along the coast and also to our west through western
NY/PA, while another brings a more consolidated shot of rain
through CNY/NEPA. These details may not be hashed out for
another day or two, so for now, we`ll simply advertise likely
probabilities for rain.

Wednesday looks seasonably warm, with highs mostly in the 70s,
while highs Thursday should be limited to the 60s, with clouds
and precipitation anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 pm update... The above mentioned upper low will be slow to
depart Friday, so thus showers, or even a period of steadier
rain, is likely to persist.

It still looks like we`ll see improvement for at least the start
of the holiday weekend, as the upper trough lifts out into the
north Atlantic, and the flow becomes more zonal aloft. From this
early vantage point, Saturday and Sunday look mostly rain-free,
with temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers are exiting the terminals earlier than expected this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will rise into VFR territory between
20z and 23z as winds become light and variable.

A chance for IFR fog exists early Tuesday morning at KELM.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Friday...Rain/showers with associated
restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP



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