Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER
INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN
LOWERING POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL
AND WEAK MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD.

300 PM UPDATE...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW
TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO
CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG
PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG.
THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON
WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...





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