Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP






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