Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 052022
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS ESTABLISHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL START BREAKING DOWN THIS SATURDAY WITH A BROAD 500
MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN
CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE RGV AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
FAIRLY WEAK 500 MB VORTICES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER TX. THESE VORTICES COULD PRODUCE
SOME ISOLD CONV THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. WILL MENTION
SOME SLGT CHC POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE BULK OF THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH NEXT THURS. MEX AND ECMWF MODEL
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR TEMPS. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK GRADIANT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FEATURING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ESTABLISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. NO SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE WEST COAST 500 MB CLOSED LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...SURFACE
TROFFING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD.
SCAS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  86  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          64  90  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            63  91  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  93  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      65  96  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  82  71  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65


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