Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 070122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
822 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE CU FIELD FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES EVIDENT AROUND THE 940 MB LEVEL. EXPECT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS JUST BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME IFR/MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. THE RETURN
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING S-SE SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WILL
MIX OUT THE EARLY MORNING CEILINGS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BRO 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.47 INCHES. ENOUGH
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SOME SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT BRO
RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS BUT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE TAMAULIPAS
COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT POPS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL/STREAMER
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO APPROACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
FIGURE PROMINENTLY IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PICTURE...AS IT EXTENDS
INTO AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. IT IS
MATCHED ALOFT BY A BROAD...FLAT H5 PATTERN. SYNOPTICALLY THEN...A
SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. AN INVERTED H5 TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SIGNATURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE ONGOING FCST.

A CORRESPONDING SEASONAL SURFACE WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
COULD BE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH STILL NOT OF SIGNIFICANT
CONSEQUENCE...ALLOWING FOR BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTLINE TOWARD THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BY FRI A SEPARATE H5 CENTER WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ACTING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS TROPICAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEARBY GULF WATERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLY PUTTING THE KIBOSH
ON MUCH OF ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE DECREASES...THOUGH
THE LIGHTER WINDS COULD ALTERNATIVELY FAVOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST BITS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION HERE AND THERE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...MSTLY IN THE
FORM OF OVERNGT AND EARLY MRNG STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY BE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SETTLING BACK DOWN TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S EXCEPT NEAR 100 FAR
WEST AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 4.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19
UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS WILL SUPPORT ONLY A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUING OUT OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
THE GULF INTERACTING WITH PERSISTENT REGIONAL LOWER PRESSURE
STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...
REDUCING THE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING THE WIND TO RELAX. MARINE
SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL ENCROACH UPON THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  90  78  90 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            78  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              78  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  79  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM/GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...59


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