Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250238 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WANE OVERALL IN INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO
SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z THEN
CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND EXTENT
OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS SOME
MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB SO WILL MENTION. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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