Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 280527
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
A frontal boundary approaching from the west will provide a
chance of showers into the early morning hours with clearing
beginning toward daybreak as the front moves east of the area.
High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic bringing fair and
warm conditions Friday through Sunday. The next cold front with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms will arrive
Monday. Generally fair with seasonal temperatures expected
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another significant weather system will
affect the region next Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With the loss of heating convection has struggled to reach the
central and eastern Midlands with the western Midlands and CSRA
seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. IR
satellite imagery shows cloud tops continue to warm and become
disorganized with WSR-88D returns also showing cells diminishing
in coverage and intensity. Overnight the weak cold front
currently pushing into the Upstate will cross the forecast area
with drier air aloft overtaking the area. This will result in a
few showers across the Midlands...however the potential for any
severe thunderstorms is very low. With low level moisture
lingering through daybreak and moisture from showers and
thunderstorms expect patchy fog to develop. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high will build off the SE coast this weekend with the
flow aloft being southwesterly. It will be warm with high
temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Increasing low level
moisture combined with the warm temps could trigger isolated
afternoon showers Friday, but confidence is low so did not
include in forecast. There is a better chance of afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and again on
Sunday as moisture increases further in conjunction with a deep
low approaching from the west.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement bringing a
strong cold front through the area Monday as an upper low lifts
into the upper Midwest. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
likely, especially during the afternoon and evening. Stable and
dry conditions return behind the front for Tuesday, and
temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs only in the mid
70s to low 80s. There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with a warm front ahead of the next
system, but model uncertainty in this time frame lowers
confidence. This system should then move into the region on
Thursday with a good chance for moderate rain.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect debris clouds at or above 6000 ft into the early morning
Models indicate fog/stratus developing after 09Z. Have continued
MVFR or lower conditions mainly 10z-13z...though lingering
through midday at AGS/DNL. By 18Z...expect VFR all TAF sites
with southerly winds 8 to 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog/stratus
expected to bring MVFR or lower conditions to the area Saturday and
Sunday. Gusty winds and restrictions in thunderstorms may be an
issue with the front Monday.