Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221429
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 14Z...COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THRU THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS
MORNING. FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND
COASTAL AREA. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WHERE RAINING THIS MORNING...BASED ON LATEST RAP.

STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
LATEST HRRR/RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AREA FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL RAISE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH...TO AROUND
80 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS MAIN E CONUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST CUT OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND. MODELS LIFT THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH
EVENTUALLY...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. HPC PREFERS
BLENDED SOLUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW
LIFTING OUT. USED BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...THEN MADE
SOME TWEAKS FROM THERE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP...KEEPING MAX TEMPS DOWN. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OUT
OF THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA AND
POSSIBLY THE MIDLANDS LATER TODAY. SO INCLUDED THREAT FOR
CONVECTION IN TERMINALS...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AGS/DNL THIS MORNING AND OGB THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 14Z...THEN BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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