Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 271829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE. COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 3 TO
6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
FALLING AROUND SUNSET. GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS BREEZY THAN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL START OFF QUITE COOL IN THE UPPER 20S BUT
SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
HELPING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AT 500MB
BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LONG TERM PATTERN LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POLAR JET WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FEATURES RESULTING IN GENERALLY FLAT ZONAL 500MB FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE 500MB FLOW DIGGING THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AND THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHILE
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THESE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
BUT REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUE-THU.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION HAS BROUGHT
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST...IN ADDITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FADE AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LESS MIXING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO FOG
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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