Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 271805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ILM TO OGB TO AGS AT 130PM.
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED IN MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF COLUMBIA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A
FAST MOVING UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN GA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHED OVER THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. CAE/CUB ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE 18Z-22Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 21Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
23Z OR SO.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT POPS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






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