Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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840
FXUS62 KCAE 260216 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1016 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move into our region late tonight and Sunday.
A series of systems will affect our region next week, providing
a chance of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, at times.
Above normal temperatures expected through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast area remains located between a surface ridge over the
western Atlantic and the deep surface low over MO/IL resulting
in a persistent moist south-southeasterly flow. Current
satellite imagery showing a plume of deep moisture tapping into
the Gulf across the lower Mississippi Valley northward into the
Tennessee Valley with generally scattered mid and high clouds
across the Upstate and western Midlands. Expect clouds to be on
the increase later tonight as the moisture transport and
convection to our west shifts eastward slowly. Given the latest
trends on MRMS radar loop and hi-res model data have decided to
lower pops through the overnight hours as it appears little
rainfall will reach the forecast area through 12z. Overnight
lows will again be limited by less than ideal radiational
cooling with a 30 knot low level jet keeping the boundary layer
mixed and increasing clouds. Expect morning lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will move through the region Sunday. Surface front will
approach the forecast area (FA) late tonight. Most of the associated
convective activity is expected to weaken or remain to our N and W
as main upper dynamics stay to our north and diurnal cooling takes
place.  Front to set up mainly near the Piedmont and CSRA Sunday and
provide a focus for scattered mainly diurnal showers, and a few
thunderstorms given weak instability. Chance POPs still appear in
order, mainly N and W FA. Front to linger in the vicinity Monday. No
upper trigger Monday but diurnal heating, along with convergence
along old front or sea breeze, could provide a slight chance of
showers, maybe an isolated thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active pattern suggested by models with a series of systems that
could affect our region through the period.

Upper disturbance progged to roll through Tuesday time frame, with
an accompanying surface bounday. Progged instability values
generally weak to moderate. Both GFS and EC indicate some upper
ridging over the SE CONUS Wednesday as a closed upper low moves into
the southern Plains. The surface front appears to stall in our
vicinity, with a possible weak wedge-like regime to the north of it.
Some question as to where the front/weak wedge may set up, which
provides some uncertainty for Wed/Thu. The front would presumably
eventually lift back north as a warm front ahead of the next system,
that GFS and EC generally bring into our region Thu nt/Fri time
frame. However, confidence of model timing and position of closed
upper systems can be limited late in the forecast period. So, some
limited confidence on specifics mid to late week. Generally used a
model blend, which provides mainly slight chance to chance POPs at
times through much of the period, and above normal temps
generally, though any weak wedginess could limit max temps on a
day or two mid week for parts of the FA, mainly north, if it
sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the early morning hours...then
MVFR conditions developing for the remainder of the period.

Southeasterly flow overnight will continue pushing moisture into
the area as a cold front moves across the Gulf States. With an
inversion developing after sunset and increasing moisture expect
a stratus layer to develop during the early morning hours along
with patchy fog. As the front approaches early Sunday afternoon
expect showers to begin across the area...have included VCSH at
all terminals from 18z onward as instability increases ahead of
the front. Winds through the period will be Southeasterly at 9
knots or less...with gusts up to 15 knots from 18z through the
end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR restrictions possible
each morning as moist southerly flow persists over the
terminals.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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