Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 130901
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
401 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the
region today. A dry front will cross the area Thursday followed
by high pressure Friday and Saturday. Unsettled weather will
return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning...Surface low pressure along the New England
coast will push north while high pressure builds into the
southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly winds will continue to usher
in colder and drier air over the region. Wind speeds have been
gradually decreasing over the last couple of hours as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Morning lows will be limited by the
winds staying up in the boundary layer and preventing strong
radiational cooling, but the cold advection is significant and
expect min temperatures to range from the mid/upper 20s in the
northern Midlands to around 30 to lower 30s in the lower CSRA
and southeastern Midlands.

Today...Northwesterly flow aloft will continue today while surface
high pressure builds into the forecast area from the southwest.
Despite sunny skies, cold air advection will promote high
temperatures around 10 degrees below normal, in the middle to
upper 40s. Surface winds will be out of the west/southwest at
around 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will continue through the short term period. High
pressure will be moving south of the region tonight into
Thursday. Models still showing a strong clipper system remaining
north of the area as it crosses the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast by Thursday morning. This system will be able to push
another dry cold front into the region Thursday night.
Moderating temperatures tonight into Thursday. Overnight lows
remain at or above freezing in most areas, and daytime highs on
Thursday climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday night will moderate slightly more as Gulf moisture
returns northward while low pressure digs into the mid MS
Valley. Lows in the middle to upper 30s. Thursday night still
looks dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather now expected into the weekend with high pressure
moving across the region. Longer range models indicate a return
of moisture by Sunday ahead of the next system. By Sunday the
high pressure will move away from the region as the next low
pressure system develops over the Southern Plains region and
ushers Gulf moisture northward. Models differ slightly with
timing and intensity of this system. They do agree on the
chance for rain returning to the forecast area Sunday afternoon
through Monday or Tuesday. This will depend on where the surface
front associated with that system ends up stalling out. Temperatures
through the long term will be below normal Friday and Saturday
with near normal for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF
period.

A cold and dry airmass will settle over the region today as
high pressure builds into the area from the southwest. Skies
will be mostly clear at the terminals through the period.
Northwesterly winds this morning will become more southwesterly
by this afternoon and will remain around 8 to 10 knots through
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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