Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261106
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5
DPVA LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS
RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THEN NORTHEASTERLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH LOW AND MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN GA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. EXPECT CEILING TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED VCSH AT ALL
SITES AS WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS AT MOST TAF SITES WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT 14Z AGS/DNL...15Z ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 18Z THROUGH 27/02Z THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 14 KNOTS BY 27/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






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