Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291406
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH A NOTABLE CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS AS THEY GO FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
A FEW THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GIVEN THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALOFT...EXPECT A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS/OGB UNTIL AROUND 13Z
THIS MORNING. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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