Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 241431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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