Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 280553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.

TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.

STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.