Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 252351
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
651 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall near the area overnight into Monday.
The front will move east of the area Monday night with dry high
pressure building in from the north Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A deep upper level low over the Great Lakes region will
move into eastern Canada as an upper trough moving across the
Plains moves into the MS River Valley overnight.

A cold front moving into the Upstate this evening and will
stall across the Midlands tonight. Showers associated with the
front will spread slowly eastward, and will be likely across
much of the area by morning. Overnight lows will range from the
mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...The cold front will be in the area Tuesday morning and
will gradually shift toward the coast during the day. Weak low
pressure tracking northeast along the boundary from the Gulf
Coast states will focus showers across the area as isentropic
lift is enhanced along with low level convergence. Shortwave
energy will track through the area Monday morning and then again
Monday night. This energy should enhance rainfall during the
morning, but most of the moisture should be east of the area by
the time the second shortwave comes through Monday evening. Maintained
categorical pops during the morning with decreasing pops in the
afternoon. The ECMWF is a little slower moving all of the
rainfall out of the area Monday evening than the NAM and GFS.
The ECMWF shows a deeper wave of low pressure along the coast
around 00Z Tuesday. Slowed down the system pushing out of the
area just a bit to account for model uncertainty. With in-situ
wedge conditions favorable, there is considerable uncertainty
in temperature forecast especially north of CAE. The high
temperatures may occur early in the day in the north as cold
advection develops behind weak surface low. Temperatures on
Monday will be several degrees cooler than recent days with
highs 65 to 70 and lows in the low 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft is expected on Tuesday while at the
surface, high pressure will ridge into the region from the
north. Models show much drier air over the region during the
day on Tuesday. High pressure will shift off the coast late
Tuesday with moisture increasing across the area from the
Tuesday night. Above normal temperatures on Tuesday with highs
in the upper 60s to around 70 and lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure over the southern Plains on Wednesday will lift
northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes and then towards
southern New England Friday. This system will bring a warm
front through the forecast area on Wednesday and a cold front
through on Thursday. Moisture will deepen across the area from
on Wednesday with southeasterly low level flow. Shortwave
energy will also be moving through the area on Wednesday, so
believe likely pops focused south and west still appear okay.
Also continued with likely pops on Thursday as the cold front
moves through area. Models show breezy conditions on Thursday
and Friday associated with the front in the area. The cold front
will be off the coast on Friday with a drier airmass over the
region for the weekend. Temperatures through the period are
forecast near to above normal values for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
satellite images showing quite a bit of cloud cover over the
region. Surface obs indicate VFR ceilings across the region.
Models showing that the VFR ceilings should continue through a
good portion of the overnight hours, with a return to mvfr
towards 12z Monday as cold front and a surface low moving along
this front push towards the forecast taf sites. Can not rule out
a brief passing shower through the overnight hours. Rain
chances and coverages increase Monday morning, lasting through
much of the day. Visibilities will drop down into mvfr
conditions also towards 12z Monday with the rainfall. Winds
light overnight, then becoming more northerly during the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible through
Monday night. Another frontal system may bring restrictions to
the area Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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