Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 210239
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGH BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
CLEARING FINALLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
BASIN WHICH WILL PULL THE CLOUDINESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH
AT DAYBREAK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND AROUND 10 MPH
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE
MAINLY CUT OFF. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 1.3
INCHES DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROMOTING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT
THE SURFACE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND DRAG ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH BASES 5000 FT TO 6000 FT...HAVE BEGUN TO
SCATTER/ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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