Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 091829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD FROM GA INTO
SC...LIGHT AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN MCCORMICK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77


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