Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
628 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Fair weather will continue through early today, with a slight
chance of showers in the afternoon. A cold front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through early
Tuesday, followed by cooler temperatures for mid week. Fair with
a warming trend late week. Next weather system may approach by
next weekend.


Through the day, both the upper ridge and surface high will
push further east and offshore. The upper flow will turn more
out of the southwest ahead of an approaching trough, while the
surface winds become more east to southeasterly through the day.
The low-level easterly flow will bring additional Atlantic
moisture back into the region, and we should see an increase in
rainfall chances late in the afternoon. Have generally gone dry
through early afternoon, then increase pops to slight chance
later in the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures remain warm
for this time of the year, with readings around 80 degrees.


A lead shortwave upper trough will approach the Southeast U.S. late
tonight into Monday, which will bring showers and
thunderstorms. The environment will be low instability/high
shear, therefore cannot rule out isolated severe thunderstorms
with a Monday cold frontal passage.

An unseasonably deep upper trough pushes into the region on Tuesday
which will bring showers to an end, but also a much cooler airmass.


The coolest airmass so far this season will be over the Southeast
U.S. during the middle of this week with temperatures 5-10 degrees
below seasonal norms. Dry air is expected to preclude any
rainfall through the end of the week. Temperatures should warm
back up by next weekend.

Another cold front and associated deep upper trough is forecast
to approach the area next weekend.


Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to dominate
with just a small moisture increase in a light easterly flow
into today.

Low-level flow turns more out of the east through the day, which
will help to bring additional Atlantic moisture to the region.
Through early morning though, still only expecting to have some
mid and high-level cloudiness moving through the cwa. Conditions
remain dry into early afternoon, then the models show weak
isentropic lift across the southern cwa. Conditions generally
vfr through 00z at all sites, then ceilings may begin to lower
down to mvfr between 00z-06z, with ifr conditions possible in
light rain after 06z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A frontal system may bring
widespread restrictions in showers tonight into Tuesday, with
thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.




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