Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231102

602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Showers moved into the terminals early this morning and will persist
in and around the Kansas City sites for a few hours past sunrise.
KSTJ will likely not see any more stormy activity given current radar
trends. Otherwise, have pushed ceilings down a little based on CIGS
heights noted across eastern Kansas. Expect clouds to lift and begin
scattering out this afternoon allowing VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the TAF period.




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