Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 110920
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016

Warm advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures from falling
much, if at all, tonight and latest surface observations are showing
temperatures near or at freezing across northern Missouri. With
temperatures expected to continue to rise early this morning, the
threat of freezing drizzle is decreasing and may only be confined to
localized areas in far northern Missouri for a few hours around
sunrise. Forecast soundings continue to show a dry mid layer below an
ice crystal bearing layer and above the saturated warm advection. So
forecast soundings continue indicate any precipitation will likely
be drizzle or freezing drizzle. But there may be some seeder-feeder
mechanism at work as well today so pockets of rain or snow, mainly
early this morning when temperatures support it, appear possible as
well.

For Monday, with the cooler surface high quickly traversing the
area, temperatures should get back to close to normal values with
highs in the lower 40s expected. But another blast of cold air will
sweep into the area Monday night. Temperatures will fall back into
the 20s by Tuesday morning with little warmup during the day as cold
high pressure settles over the region. That cold high gets
reinforced Wednesday night with highs in the 20s expected for both
Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday through Sunday, models move a deep trough through the middle
of the country. This produces a challenging forecast as there has
been significant model run to run changes leading to a low
confidence forecast. For now, the deepening trough develops a rather
strong surface low. Strong warm advection ahead of the trough and
associated surface low suggest temperatures on Friday may actually
warm into the 40s or even close to 50 as the surface low tracks north
of the forecast area. With current models depicting the area in the
warm sector of the storm, precipitation should trend to being of
liquid form. But there may be a period where surface temperatures
support freezing/frozen precipitation. Additionally, forecast
soundings suggest a lack of cloud ice so if the latest models were to
verify, it could be another drizzle/rain/freezing drizzle/snow event
depending on the temperatures and potential for ice crystals. Given
the high uncertainty and lack of consistency of the models, will just
mention rain/snow/mix at this time. The lack of consistency has also
led to PoPs being present throughout the weekend. With the latestround
of models indicating dry conditions, it`s hard to go with high chance
or even likely PoPs that were populated. After much discussion with
neighboring offices, have settled for just carrying slight chance
PoPs with the mindset that models could easily swing back to needing
to carry higher PoPs.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2016

VFR ceilings across northern into central MO through the overnight
period. MVFR ceilings over east central KS will shift northeast into
west central MO by 12z and expand north and east across the rest of
the region during the morning. IFR ceilings/areas of drizzle with
MVFR fog will form over western MO/far eastern KS around sunrise and
gradually expand north and east during the morning. Some patchy
freezing drizzle is possible over northern MO after sunrise until
temperatures rise above 33F.

Conditions will improve to VFR from northwest to southeast in the
afternoon as a cold front sweeps through.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...MJ


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