Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 010349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

Things are finally stating to settle down across the area this
afternoon despite the presence of the large upper low responsible
for so much sensible weather impacts across the Central U.S. directly
to our west. In fact, latest GOES-16 satellite data has shown
some breaks in the overlying stratus deck, and social media
reports indicate the sun is actually peaking through across
southern portions of the KC Metro! That said, we`re not totally
out of the woods yet as instability type shwr activity will
remain possible this afternoon and into the overnight as the
aforementioned upper closed low translates east with time. In
fact, latest SPC meso page shows an axis of MUCAPE exceeding 500
J/kg along the Route 63 corridor, and radar seems to be responding
accordingly. Cannot rule out some pea sized hail with any storms
that develop over the area, along with an isolated cold funnel or
two. As of this afternoon, it seems completely plausible that
light shwr activity extends right into day on Monday, especially
for areas east of Route 65 as enough moisture and lift will
remain in place through at least the first half of the day.
Despite the low passing overhead, enough sun should return by
early afternoon to allow temps to climb into the upper 50s to
lower 60s across the western zones, with low to mid 50s likely
further east.

Much of the upcoming week looks to be shaping up as fairly benign
as high pressure quickly builds in late Monday/Monday night. This
should give us a brief opportunity to dry out before the next weak
system begins impacting our area on Wednesday. This monring`s
model guidance continues to track the main surface low further and
further south of our region, thus it currently appears the
heaviest rains will occur across southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas; exactly where they don`t need it! That said however,
fcst guidance shows little in the way of any available
instability, so feature should pass with only minor impacts to
the ongoing river flood situation for areas south of the Missouri
River.

Beyond this, extended range model guidance continues to suggest a
major pattern shift with a developing omega block in the center
part of the country by late week. There seems to be a fair amount
of model agreement with this feature, which adds confidence that
our region should see a fairly nice warmup as we head into next
weekend. Warm temps combined with decreasing chances for organized
rainfall should spell relief to many after the crazy weekend we
just experienced.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

Light showers will continue to rotate through all TAF sites
tonight as a surface low pressure system lifts northward across
far eastern Kansas. Ceilings will gradually lower as the low
approaches; however, trends have not been as drastic as model
guidance advertised, so have backed off of IFR tonight and also
slowed the trend of reduced ceilings. Winds will veer to the west
and eventually the northwest on Monday morning, gusting to over 20
kts during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin


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