Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 241753 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals through late
tonight. An upper level disturbance pushing across the southeast
part of the area could generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the coastal plains this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry with low level moisture increasing tonight into
Tuesday with MVFR category expected across all area airports by
dawn. VFR conditions return Tuesday around 16Z. Light southerly
winds will prevail through the forecast period with the exception
of KDRT where wind speeds are expected to range from 8 to 12 knots
with gusts up 20 knots mainly in the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
With ongoing isolated showers continuing, opted to extend the
mention of this activity until 18z. The rest of the forecast looks
on track and only made minor adjustments to the hourly grids based
on current trends.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
Light convective showers associated with a weak midlevel shortwave
continue to develop this morning from NE of AUS to NE of SAT/SSF.
Although aircraft soundings show some elevated instability above
the capping inversion, have elected to go with VCSH for now as
chances of VCTS remain too low to mention. Midlevel cloud cover
and shower activity has prevented persistent MVFR ceilings from
developing this morning, but some intermittent scattered to broken
020-030 ceilings will affect the I-35 TAF sites through about 16Z
before lifting to VFR with S-SE 5-10 knot winds. A very brief
stint of MVFR ceilings is also possible at DRT from 14-16Z, but
VFR conditions will prevail otherwise with SE 10-15 knot winds.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A mid level trough along the Rio Grande will move across Texas
today. Showers and occasional thunderstorms have continued into
early this morning across eastern parts of South Central Texas
due to upward forcing and diffluence on a seasonably moist airmass
ahead of the trough. The showers and occasional storms will move
off to east in the next few hours ending as the trough axis passes
by. In its wake, a slightly drier airmass moves in as an upper
level ridge begins building into areas along the Rio Grande. The
warming trend started on Sunday continues with above normal
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The upper level ridge continues building into South Central Texas
mid week and settles over Texas late week through next weekend. A
surface ridge also builds into our area late week into next
weekend with only impact of slightly lower dewpoints. Subsidence
under the ridge and a drier airmass will keep rain out of the
forecast. Above seasonal normal temperatures will continue through
at least Sunday.
For beyond this forecast: ECMWF shifts the ridge north and east a
bit allowing an easterly wave to move into southern Texas Monday
to south of the Big Bend Tuesday to across Texas Wednesday. GFS
keeps the ridge in place Monday and Tuesday before an upper level
trough moves across the southern Plains on Wednesday. These
features could bring the next chances of rain to South Central
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 63 85 64 85 64 / 0 - 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 84 63 84 61 / 0 - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 84 63 85 63 / 0 - 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 61 81 62 83 61 / - - 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 83 65 84 65 / 0 - 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 61 82 62 84 62 / - - 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 64 85 63 85 63 / 0 - 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 62 83 62 84 62 / 0 - 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 84 63 85 63 / 0 - 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 84 64 84 64 / 0 - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 64 85 63 86 65 / 0 - 0 0 0
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams