Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 271110
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
610 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED. DUE TO LOW PROBS...WILL KEEP MENTION
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. RADAR TRENDS MAY FORCE AN UPDATE TO MENTION
IN LATER TAFS. LCL MVFR CIGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL TURN TO E TO SE 5 TO 14 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM TEXAS TO THE EAST COAST WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. THERE WAS A SUBTLE EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WAS BETTER DEPICTED IN THE WIND
FIELD THAN THE HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION EARLIER TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES
OR DEW POINTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CAPE FORECAST
IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. THIS MEANS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUCH
THAT STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE ERODED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINANT BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES IN
MOST PLACES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  96 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  95  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77  99  77  97 /  -   -   10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  76  94 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  97  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  97  75  96 /  10  10  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  75  97  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  98  76  97 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





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