Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 031101
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
601 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL LIFT WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT VFR LEVEL AND BR DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS
WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND BR WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND REPEAT TODAY`S PATTERN ON SATURDAY. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ANY IMPACTS WELL EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AIRPORTS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND MAY IMPACT
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PROBS TOO LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. S TO SE
WINDS 3 TO 8 KTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND DECREASE TO 3 TO 9 KTS THIS EVENING
AS THE AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.
THERE WAS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
AND WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY AROUND THREE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND TROUGH REMAINING IN BALANCE. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL STAY OVER THE GULF AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE COAST TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING OFF THE EASTERN TROUGH.
POPS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO I-35.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD AS THE ATLANTIC SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND FORCE THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WILL STILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  74  92  76  91 /  10  -   20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  91  75  91 /  10  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  74  90  75  91 /  -   -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  90  74  91 /  10  -   10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  75  92  75  94 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  90  75  92 /  10  -   20  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  74  91  75  92 /  -   -   20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  90  75  90 /  -   -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  90  76  91 /  20  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  91  76  91 /  10  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  76  91 /  10  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



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