Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020155
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FRESHEN UP THE CURRENT GRIDS AND TO
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP OUT WEST AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED.  QUIET WX EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DAYTIME HEATING WORKING ON DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THIS EVENING AS A DRIER AIRMASS WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS
OF 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIRMASS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOME HIGHS AROUND 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE SUNDAY PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS BY MID WEEK
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS ALLOWING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 AND IN SPOTS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN MAY BE FROM AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT MOVES ONSHORE TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS DISSIPATE
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WITH NO IMPACTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74 101  75 100  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69 100  73  99  73 /  -    0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73 100  73 100  74 /  -    0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  99  73  99  75 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 101  77 101  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  98  74 100  75 /  -    0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  99  73  99  73 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72 100  73  99  75 /  -    0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72 100  73  99  76 /  -    0   0  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  99  75  99  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75 100  74 100  76 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09



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