Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            28  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        31  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             35  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        34  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   38  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       35  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  48  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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