Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 182101
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









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