Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 271711
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF LAREDO TO PLEASANTON TO
JUST WEST OF COLUMBUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN REACH A STEADY STATE WITHIN
3 HOURS OF PASSAGE. WILL TREND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY OUT
WEST IN ADDITION TO OTHER PARTS OF OUR AREA AND HAVE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THAT. HAVE ALSO RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TO FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AS AN ELEVATED WARM SECTOR IS ERODING TO
THE EAST AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. FINALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS FOR 4 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN FOG
AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND DOWN INTO THE
SAT/SSF AREAS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AUS IS CURRENTLY MVFR WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT DRT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH AUS AND DRT AROUND 14Z
AND SAT/SSF AROUND 16Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT AT AUS/SAT/SSF...BUT PATCHY
-RA/-DZ CONTINUING. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT DRT BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE RISING TO VFR AROUND 18Z. EVENTUALLY OVC CEILINGS
BECOMING VFR AT AUS/SAT/SSF EARLY THIS EVENING. N WINDS 12-18 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWESTWARD TO DEL RIO. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MIST/DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 35. CAN`T RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/2 TO 1
MILE. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WITH FEW SPOTS GETTING UP
TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15
MPH WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN-SHOWERS TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH. THIS TRANSLATE TO
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE THIS
IS OCCURRING...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THEN ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THESE FORECAST PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE AREAS ABOVE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...STILL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THIS
WINTER EVENT UNFOLDS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ARE DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THIS EVENT THIS MORNING VERSUS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS NEW
MODEL DATA AND HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE. IT WILL REMAIN WET
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  38  50  35  62 /  40  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  38  51  30  62 /  50  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  39  53  34  63 /  50  10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  34  49  33  61 /  30  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  39  56  36  62 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  36  49  32  62 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  38  56  32  64 /  30  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  38  51  32  63 /  50  10  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  40  50  34  62 /  60  30  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  40  55  36  63 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  41  55  35  64 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32




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