Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 232034
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
334 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Strong wind gusts have extended east of the advy area into the I-35
corridor, and sustained winds are on the cusp of reaching advy
criteria. Mixing occurred early along I-35 as opposed to out west, so
perhaps winds are topping out about now. Will leave the advisory as
is and hand off the dilemma to the next shift. Winds are expected to
relax late tonight as the surface low over the high plains to the
north tracks east. Models show good consistency in bringing a broken
line of mostly weak convection through the northern 2/3 of the
forecast area late tonight into Friday. A low CAPE/high shear
environment and a modest amount of moisture for spring standards
should make this round of convection mostly garden variety, but areas
near and to the east of AUS by midday Friday could be able to tap
into slightly deeper moisture and with a more robust afternoon
convection. The SPC outlook remains reasonable for a low end slight
risk day for the eastern counties, but mesoscale model runs such as
the TX Tech WRF suggest the deeper convection and severe threat
should be less than the areas of N-Central & E TX.

Post frontal drying will be efficient with downsloping westerly
winds, but the mid-level low pressure being well to the north may not
mix the gusty winds from aloft to the surface as much as they are
expected to the WFO counties to the north. A Fire Weather Watch is
for now, just north of our counties, and this may need to be reviewed
in more detail as we begin to see the strength of the surface to 850
mb winds in upcoming model runs. The potential for a low-end RFW
event should be mainly NW of a DRT to T82(Fredericksburg) line.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Good drying from Friday`s strong Central Plains storm could leave
Saturday morning with the coolest morning of the next week,
especially over the NW counties. Coastal Plains counties may fail to
lose all the shallow moisutre. Moisture return will resume Sunday but
not fast enough to bring a significant rain chance as a
shallow/smaller upper disturbance passes through the Central Plains
Sunday night. The progressive pattern aloft could keep the nocturnal
jet active, so some low-end convection (primary RW, isolated TRW)
looks reasonable for some northern counties Sunday night. while the
frontal wind shift in the wake of the Sunday system is weak, winds
will not shift to southerly but rather to the east in the advance of
a much deeper trough/upper low that reaches TX by Wednesday. This
system remains poorly agreed upon by deterministic solutions, with
the GFS running slowest/wettest and the CMC running fastest/driest.
Feel a ECM type middle ground solution will narrow the window in
future with a TRW likely type period Wednesday into Wednesday night;
for now will keep with the blended population schemes until the
model trends show more consistency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  83  56  83  59 /  20  70   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  82  54  82  56 /  20  70   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  84  54  83  57 /  20  60   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  83  50  80  56 /  30  60   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  86  53  86  59 /  20  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  81  52  81  56 /  20  70  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  86  51  86  57 /  20  40   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  83  54  83  57 /  20  70   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  80  58  82  59 /  10  70  20   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  84  55  85  59 /  20  50   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  85  55  86  59 /  10  50   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the following
counties: Burnet...Edwards...Gillespie...Kerr...Kinney...Llano...
Real...Val Verde...Williamson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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