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000
FXUS64 KEWX 260905
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
405 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A moist southeasterly lower level flow was across South Central Texas
early this morning with PWS little changed from this past weekend and
ranging from 1.5 inches Edwards Plateau to 2 inches east of I-35 to
the Coastal Plains. This is feeding a band of showers in a convergent
zone from the Middle Texas coast into Central Texas. Other showers
are trying to develop over the Edwards Plateau to Rio Grande Plains.
Meanwhile, a linear MCS is moving across the Permian Basin. Showers
will continue to develop this morning from the Coastal Plains into
Central Texas in this flow, and over the Hill Country due to upslope
flow there. As heating destabilizes the airmass and with surface
boundary collisions, thunderstorms will also develop. After sunset
with loss of heating, showers and thunderstorms will tend to wane.
However, the MCV or its remnant surface boundary generated by the
Permian Basin MCS will likely be approaching the Edwards Plateau.
This should be enough to keep showers and thunderstorms going or
redeveloping over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this evening
into the overnight. Later tonight into morning, streamer showers are
expected again moving further inland from the Coastal Plains. Little
change in airmass is indicated on Tuesday with a similar pattern to
today. However, the MCV, possible mid level shear axis, may enhance
shower and thunderstorm development. The main threat in the short
term remains locally heavy rains that may cause some minor flooding.
Some minor stream flows or rises were noted from locally heavy rains
this weekend. Cannot rule out wind gusts to 30 mph with the stronger
storms. Temperatures continue below normal due to clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Subtle changes take place mid to late week as the Subtropical Ridge
weakly builds into our area with a mid level shear axis along or just
off the Texas Coast. The moist airmass shifts to the east with lower
PWS, near 1 inch, moving into the Edwards and the 1.5 to 2 inch
range shifting to the I-35 corridor to Coastal Plains closer to the
mid level shear axis. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue
for the central and eastern parts of South Central Texas with most
activity during the early morning to evening hours and enhanced by
the seabreeze. Most models build the Subtropical Ridge a little more
over our area next weekend, effectively ending the rain chances.
However, the ECMWF show the shear axis moving west across Southern
Texas maintaining at least slight rain chances. For now, the forecast
has followed the model consensus. A very slow warming trend develops
Wednesday and continues through Friday, then more stable
temperatures next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  72  90  72  92 /  40  20  40  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  71  89  72  91 /  40  20  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  71  90  71  91 /  40  20  40  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            86  70  87  70  89 /  50  20  40  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  73  92  73  94 /  30  30  30  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  71  88  71  90 /  40  20  40  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             91  71  91  71  92 /  40  20  40  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  71  90  71  91 /  40  20  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  72  89  73  90 /  50  30  50  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  72  90  73  92 /  40  20  40  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           90  73  91  73  92 /  40  20  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...04