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000
FXUS64 KEWX 252052
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3PM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ROSE PRETTY QUICKLY TODAY...AND ENOUGH TO
WARRANT RAISING MAX T FOR TODAY UP A COUPLE DEGREES. FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS ON THE ESCARPMENT AND HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE AS WARMING BEGINS MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND NICELY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 70S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BEYOND THAT...THERE ISNT
MUCH ELSE TO SAY ABOUT TOMORROW OTHER THAN IT WILL BE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY AND BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS FOR AUS
AND SAT. PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD AID
IN THAT HEATING EVEN FURTHER SO THINK THIS CHANCE IS QUITE GOOD
FOR RECORDS WEDNESDAY.

BEGINNING THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
WEEKENDS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. POPS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AS OVERRUNNING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK
UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HOW SIGNIFICANT THAT OVERRUNNING IS WILL
DETERMINE THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS
BEEN OVERDOING THIS IT SEEMS OVER THE LAST FEW EVENTS THUS DID NOT
WANT TO VENTURE ANYTHING BEYOND SLGT POPS. ALSO...THE SPEED OF
THIS MOISTURE RECOVERY IS SUSPECT IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF OUTPUT
SEEMS MORE LOGICAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE DRY AIR MASS HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THUS BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

ITS STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS EVOLUTION BUT ECMWF TRENDS ARE WETTER AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THEREFORE AGREED WITH PARTNERS TO RAISE
POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE...A
HEALTHY RAIN CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY.

BEYOND THE DAY 7...THE ECMWF OUTLOOK FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
INTERESTING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORM POTENTIAL BUT DUE TO
HOW FAR OUT THAT IS AND THE GFS DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE IT AT
THAT FOR DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              43  76  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  74  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  76  42  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            40  74  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  75  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  74  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  76  38  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  74  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  75  44  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           40  75  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00