Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 222336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR STRATUS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE SE-E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12




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