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000
FXUS64 KEWX 100008
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING PAST THE MIDNIGHT HOUR WITH ONLY SOME
RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS LEFT OVER NEAR SAT AND DRT FROM EARLIER SH/TS
ACTIVITY. SIMULATED WRF SHOWS MVFR CIGS FORMING TO THE SE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD MORNING BUT MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT WITH MVFR AT ALL AUS/SAT/SSF SITES BASED ON THE
WRF...HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS...AND PERSISTENCE. UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ON THUR WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THICKER CLOUDCOVER DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP US
FROM VFR HOWEVER. POPS WILL BE INCREASING...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
TO PUT IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT. CONFIDENCE MAY GROW BY EARLY THU
TO INPUT SOME SCT CONVECTION IN AND AROUND SAT/DRT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK RAIN CHANCES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY
CLOSER INTO THE KERRVILLE AND SAT METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL INDICATIVE OF THE RAIN CHANCES
CONTRACTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY... SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS AND WE EXPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ON THURSDAY... A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS SHOULD
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHANCE (30%) POPS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. FOR NOW...
WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT 20%...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
NUDGE POPS UPWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK WEST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL U.S.
PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS... WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION AND WILL MONITOR FUTURE MODEL DATA FOR THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  96  73  97  73 /  10  20  -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  95  70  96  69 /  10  20  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  71  96  71 /  10  20  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  71  95  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  96  73  92  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  96  72  96  71 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  94  71  96  69 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  93  71  96  70 /  10  20  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  93  74  95  73 /  10  20  -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  93  74  95  73 /  10  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  94  73  96  72 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12