Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
COLORADO TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE 250MB WINDS TURNED FROM
WESTERLY AT DEL RIO TO SOUTHERLY AT FORT WORTH. THE SURFACE FLOW
IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE MCS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THERE WERE A
NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THIS WILL BRING MORE
MOIST AIR. THIS HIGH MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MEAN
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR AND SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PW WILL BE LOWER AND HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH. THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE END OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE DRIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  73  87  72  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  87  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  73  88  72  87 /  20  20  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  69  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  89  74  86 /  30  20  20  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  87  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  88  73  86 /  30  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  73  87  72  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  88  73  87 /  30  20  20  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  74  88  73  86 /  30  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  74  88  73  87 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


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