Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 010220
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE THE ACTIVE NIGHT COVERAGE WISE AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND DID
I MENTION A BOUNDARY OVER NE GA...THESE ALL FINALLY TOOK A TOLL IN
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY FELL SHORT OF SEVERE ALTHOUGH THREE STORMS DI GO
SEVERE...ONE OF WHICH OVER THE ATLANTA METRO WITH NUMEROUS TREES
DOWN.

ACTIVITY HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY
REDEVELOPMENT WE ARE GOING TO GET TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HI RES
NOW PICKING UP ON THIS FACT AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY DROPPING THE
LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT AND NOT RAMPING THEM BACK UP UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR NW GA AND AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH GA. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TODAYS CONVECTION VERY WELL WITH
LOCATION AND AREA. MODELS ALL BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THIS WAVE PULLS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT ACTIVE
PATTERN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION. INITIALLY
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT TO THE NE...LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULSES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BY MID
WEEK...A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WILL DROP INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW...POPS TAPER OFF QUICKLY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OPTIMISTIC. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF BEST POPS AND THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY STILL EXIST...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...KEEPING
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MOTHERS DAY
WEEKEND.

31/01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ROUNDS 2 AND 3 OF TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE ATL
TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL NEED A SHORT 2 HOUR TEMPO THROUGH
02Z TO COVER. SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT ABUNDANT RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME REDUCED VSBY
THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS SHOULD
BRIEFLY GO BACK TO SSE BEFORE GOING PERMANENTLY SE SUN MORNING.
LINE OF TSRA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ATL TERMINALS AROUND 18Z AND
ELSEWHERE AFTER 20Z ON SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL AND TSRA TIMING SUNDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  81  63  84 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  65  81 /  60  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     62  76  58  79 /  70  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    66  80  63  79 /  40  70  60  40
COLUMBUS        68  83  66  86 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  80 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           66  84  65  86 /  60  40  40  40
ROME            64  80  63  79 /  40  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  66  81  63  82 /  40  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  86  69  86 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE



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