Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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