Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 270049
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Forecast in good shape tonight. Regional IR sat shows another MCS
across the TN Valley propagating south. Warming cloud tops
indicate the sytem is losing steam as it encounters a drier air
mass. It should dissipate before it reaches Ga. Main forecast
concern overnight is shower potential. Opted to keep slight chance
POPs across mainly the northern half of the CWA. Weak mid level
perturbation currently over E Ga should retrograde overnight /as
per 18z GFS and 12z CMC/ as tropical system develops across W
Atlantic and establishes a more easterly influence aloft across
the SE. This disturbance...along with any lingering outflow
boundary or convectively induced mid level wave from TN Valley MCS
could provide enough lift for showers in already moist
environment. More cloud cover and continued moisture transport
will keep lows generally in upper 60s.
Friday...isolated shower/storm activity will be highest across
north Ga where lingering wave and deepest moisture coincide. Once
again...with continued ridging aloft and at sfc...expect activity
to be isolated. Another warm day in store with highs topping off
in mid-upper 80s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 736 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Short range models in general agreement...however there are some
differences in the details. Main problem with tonight is the
potential for showers. Both MAV/MET increase pops after 06z and QPF
on GFS/NAM/SREF show rainfall amounts across north and west central
GA tonight. The WRF diminishes the activity tonight while the HRRR
increase activity tonight. Will go with slight chance pops for now
and keep an eye on it. Another weak short wave will move into the
CWA Friday bringing a chance of convection to mainly north GA
Friday...mainly in the afternoon. Temps will remain at or above
normal through the short term.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
Extended forecast period continues to be dominated by the western
Atlantic low. GFS and ECMWF both show the primary impacts from this
system remaining east of the forecast area through the period. The
weekend still looks like a quieter period as we are under the
influence of subsidence along the periphery of the system and
somewhat stable easterly low-level flow. Upper low and surface
reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/
Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country. By Monday through
Thursday model instability increases some as well as deeper moisture
over the forecast area and we lose the subsidence over the state so
at least scattered...somewhat diurnal in nature...convection still
VFR the rule again at all sites thru the period. Isolated
convection to wind down after sunset...along with winds shifting
to the SE less than 10KTS. A few showers may pop up overnight but
not enough coverage to warrant mention in the TAFs. Expect SCT
lower level clouds to stick around overnight...with a BKN mid
level deck possible after midnight...esp across northern sites.
Diurnal cu field expected again Fri with isolated convection
possible across mainly metro sites. No restrictions to vsbys.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on winds...medium to low on overnight cloud cover.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 65 86 63 86 / 20 20 10 5
Atlanta 67 84 66 85 / 20 20 10 5
Blairsville 62 81 61 82 / 20 30 20 10
Cartersville 67 86 65 86 / 20 30 20 5
Columbus 68 88 66 87 / 20 5 5 5
Gainesville 65 83 64 84 / 20 20 20 5
Macon 64 88 61 87 / 20 5 5 5
Rome 66 86 65 86 / 20 30 20 10
Peachtree City 65 86 61 85 / 20 20 10 5
Vidalia 66 87 64 87 / 20 10 5 20