Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 041905
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP


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