Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 182350 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
JUST SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THOUGH CIRRUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND. MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY THEN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NAM 295 THETA SFC INDICATING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND
START A BIT EARLIER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE TOO
SLOW WITH UPGLIDE ONSET. BRING DEFINITE POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM THE
WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS PROGGED TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
FIELD PUSH EAST. SHOULD BE A NICE SOAKING AND NEARLY STEADY RAIN.

QPF VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY
NEAR A HALF INCH. TRENDED LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LIKELY CLOUDY AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DID NOT
MAKE ANY HUGE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM ISSUANCE. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
GFS INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE BOTH
THUNDERSTORM AND WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

RW

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/
SPELL OF DRY WX TO END BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. FLOW
OVER MOST OF CONUS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FRIDAY. MODEL PROGS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE OVER SRN PLAINS TO MOVE EAST TO MS
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. SOLID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN KICKS
IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF WAVE. BASED ON TRACK OF WAVE...RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR CATEGORICAL FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
FROM MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. WAVE FAIRLY OPEN SO ZONAL FLOW AND NO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR SFC RIDGING BEHIND IT. COULD BE GOOD PATTERN
FOR STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IF WE GET OVERRUNNING. KEPT SLT CHC
POPS GOING FOR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER CONUS AS STRONG FLOW DIGS INTO
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO
LIFT ENE ALONG GULF COAST OUT OF SOUTH TX SUN NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A
LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY MIDDLE GA AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST AS WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS AND DAMPENS. AGAIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
WAKE OF THIS WAVE SO EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG/DRIZZLE MON
NIGHT.

TUES...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA. LOBE OF
VORTICITY OVER WRN TN TO LIFT NE THEN N OVER MIDWEST STATES.
TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE KEY TO PRECIP...BOTH
INTENSITY AND TYPE ON TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT /XMAS EVE/. 00Z
ECMWF COMING MORE IN LINE WITH PREV GFS RUNS AND OTHER MED RANGE
MODELS WITH MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER MIDWEST STATES AND
SOMEWHAT LESS SHARP TROUGH AXIS THAN PREV EC RUNS...MOVING INTO
MID-SOUTH TUE NIGHT. MAIN THREAT IF ANY TUES NIGHT COULD BE HIGH-
SHEAR LOW-CAPE STORMS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THAT DIMINISHED FROM PREV
EC RUNS. DRY SLOT SHOULD END PRECIP QUICK WED BUT SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS POSS IN FAR NORTH GA AS VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT. AGAIN...00Z EC
BACKING OFF ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND UPPER LOW FORMATION FURTHER
SOUTH. DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN FCST
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO REAL CHC FOR ANY PRECIP IN ATL
METRO OR MIDDLE GA AFTER 12Z WED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 4-8KFT
CURRENTLY WILL BECOME MOSTLY 10KFT OR HIGHER BY 06Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH 00Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
06Z AND 14Z...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 6KT OR LESS THROUGH 15Z...BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  56  41  47 /   0  10 100 100
ATLANTA         37  55  44  50 /   0  20 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     31  52  38  46 /   0   5  90  90
CARTERSVILLE    30  53  40  49 /   0  20 100 100
COLUMBUS        40  60  47  56 /   5  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     36  53  41  47 /   0  10 100 100
MACON           36  61  44  55 /   0  40 100 100
ROME            30  52  39  50 /   0  10  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  32  56  42  51 /   0  30 100 100
VIDALIA         41  63  48  57 /   0  20 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BAKER


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