Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 290811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WITH
CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS MAY DIP TO
MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY AND
THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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