Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 271144
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...The current satellite loop
shows some mid to high level clouds streaming across the region
associated with the frontal boundary now moving into NW GA. You
can see a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into N
GA but they are struggling to get across the N GA mountains right
now. As the line moves further south and we get into a little
daytime heating will see showers and thunderstorms increase across
the area. The frontal system is fairly weak at this point so not
expecting much precipitation or convective activity this
afternoon/evening. Continuing with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast. This frontal system should be south
of our CWA by 12z-18z Wed as it ushers in a cooler and drier
airmass for the extended forecast.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Strong and deep upper level trough continues to drop south into
the Tennessee Valley and eventually North GA as the long term
period begins. With this initial push and along the leading edge
of the maximized vorticity...could see the redevelopment of some
light showers over the far north. models have been fairly
consistent with this feature and keep moisture very limited only
warranting 20 pops at this time.
As anticipated...cool air advection pattern is slower and slower
to setup with each model run. We started out late last week
thinking we would see temps around 50 by Thu morning. Although
much cooler than recent days...will only be able to realized mid
50s at this point over much of North GA.
The really cool air looks to hold off until late Thu into Friday
as upper low continues to trek southward out of the Ohio Valley.
Will not be an ideal radiational cooling night Thu night under
this setup with clouds possible to the north and winds remaining
in the 5 to 10 kt range even overnight. Cool air advection will
aid however in sending temps into the upper 40s across the far
north and around 50 for the remainder of North GA.
Fair wx pattern continues into the end of the week and weekend.
Will need to keep an eye on the tropics with varying model
solutions keeping us safe at the moment but worth watching.
No major changes from the 06z taf set. Mainly VFR conditions
expected to continue this TAF period. Will see showers and
isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Best
chances will be between 22z and 01z this evening. Will see some
MVFR restrictions to VSBYs in and around storms but it will be
short lived. Winds will stay out of the SW at the TAF sites until
the front moves through and they turn to the NW. Wind speeds will
stay 10kt or less.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence High on all elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 86 63 84 58 / 30 20 10 10
Atlanta 84 63 82 59 / 30 20 10 10
Blairsville 79 52 78 51 / 30 10 20 20
Cartersville 83 56 82 54 / 20 20 10 10
Columbus 89 67 88 62 / 30 20 10 10
Gainesville 83 61 81 57 / 30 20 10 10
Macon 89 66 87 59 / 30 20 10 10
Rome 82 55 83 54 / 20 20 10 20
Peachtree City 85 60 83 55 / 30 20 10 10
Vidalia 89 70 88 65 / 20 20 20 30