Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 231144
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017/
.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Relatively quiet short term fcst given ridge dominated regime and
some mid-level moisture return to allow for relatively cloudy but
precip-free conditions through Friday. The strong parent 1035mb+
high currently sliding into New England has allowed inverted ridging
east of the Appalachians and resultant NE to east sfc fetch
characteristic of a classical CAD setup. While temps should be
limited to the low to mid 60s for much of the CWA today, the wedge
effect should be short-lived since the high is progged to quickly
push off the mid-Atlantic coast by Friday. This orientation will
also allow for a bit stronger moisture transport off the Gulf and
Atlantic in the form of a thicker/lower stratocu deck early Friday.
Not seeing much in the form of lifting mechanisms so just expecting
mostly cloudy Friday morning becoming a pleasant partly cloudy
afternoon and near normal temps in the 70s for most locales.
.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Surface high pressure well off-shore will continue to move further
out to sea Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft
will erode ahead of the next storm system. Expect increasing
clouds Saturday afternoon/evening as a front approaches. In the
mid- levels, a closed low dropping out of the Rockies will pivot
toward the Ohio River Valley through the weekend. A cold front
associated with this system will continue to track east across the
central CONUS, becoming washed out before reaching Georgia. In
addition, the dynamics associated with this system will lift north
as it approaches Saturday night into Sunday. Anticipate showers
will move into northwestern Georgia Saturday afternoon/evening.
With very little surface convergence and much of the energy within
the mid-levels waning, do not have the highest confidence that
this system will hold together, especially through the day
Sunday. Therefore, current thinking is highest pops across the
northern tier of Georgia Saturday night into Sunday with the rest
of the area experiencing chance pops. Also, given weak
instability and shear, kept schc thunderstorm in Saturday evening
through Sunday. The system will lift to the north with the front
never quite making it into Georgia.
For the first half of the work-week model inconsistencies are
making confidence a bit lower. However, a progressive pattern will
continue during this time with another wave of precipitation
(showers/thunderstorms) possible Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. The ECM has another potent system approaching quickly by
mid-week under warm southerly flow. While the GFS is introducing
a distinct frontal passage by Wednesday, bringing drier and cooler
air into the region thereafter. Have hedged at the end of the
period in hopes of seeing better model continuity in time.
Under warm southerly flow through much of the long term, expect above
normal temperatures, highs primarily in the 70s.
A building ridge of high pressure from the northeast will allow for
dry conditions today. While the low levels should remain dry, there
does look to be some mid level moisture that should result in some
more enhanced cloud coverage today into tonight. Resultant RH values
may approach 25 to 30 percent briefly in portions of the far east
this afternoon, though for now not reaching critical fire danger
thresholds. Winds look to be in the 10-15 mph range out of the east
for this morning into early afternoon, though begin to decrease to 5-
10 mph for the latter/drier part of the day. No fire danger
statement will be issued at the moment but if stronger winds or
lower RH values start trending, then one may be warranted in parts
of the east CWA.
Initial VFR conditions as 4-6 kft cigs building in with ridge to
the NE. Could approach high end MVFR level after about 15z in 3-4
kft range with some slight lifting for Thursday evening but more
likely to reach MVFR for early Friday. VSBYs should stay VFR thru
period. Winds ENE to ESE thru period and magnitudes 10-12 kts
through much of today with gusts 20-22 kts then decrease to 6-8
kts by evening. While clouds are expected...no precipitation is
forecast as ridge lingers to the east going into Friday.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on early period cigs between VFR and MVFR.
High on all else.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 61 44 70 52 / 0 0 0 5
Atlanta 62 49 70 55 / 0 0 0 5
Blairsville 57 41 62 49 / 0 5 10 10
Cartersville 62 48 70 53 / 0 5 5 5
Columbus 68 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 59 45 66 52 / 0 0 5 5
Macon 66 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 5
Rome 64 48 71 53 / 0 0 5 5
Peachtree City 64 47 72 52 / 0 0 0 5
Vidalia 67 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 0