Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 101733
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1233 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
No changes to the forecast needed for today. Just tweaked some
hourly temp/dewpoint grids.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/
Previous Discussions.../Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Regional observations this morning are showing most areas either at
or already well below freezing and diminishing winds under clear
skies should improve radiational cooling enough to support temps
falling a few more degrees before sunrise this morning... with most
areas seeing lows well down in the 20s this morning. So... bundle up
good before venturing out this morning.
Otherwise... models agree on the surface ridge slipping east and
establishing a cool easterly wind flow by the afternoon. This will
set the stage for an overrunning scenario by late Sunday as a
developing moist southerly mid level flow overruns the easterly
surface winds. This should begin increasing area cloudiness by
Sunday afternoon and then area rain chances by Sunday evening if not
sooner. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles of light rain
across parts of the forecast area by mid to late Sunday afternoon.
Of course... no thunder will occur as the atmosphere remains cool
and stable. As for temps... ample sunshine should help area temps to
rebound into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. The cool
easterly flow under mostly clear skies will support lows ranging
from the upper 20s north to mid 30s central for tonight. May not
warm up much on Sunday as the wedge of cool air begins to get
trapped near the surface with increasing clouds in the afternoon.
This may hold highs on Sunday in the 40s for areas... except for
areas far west and south where highs could creep up into the 50s. A
super blend of guidances for pops and temps looked reasonable
through the short term... so did not stray far.
LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Models coming into better agreement for the long term. A potent
sfc low with an associated cold front draped down across north TX
will progress eastward Sunday night. Meanwhile, high pressure well
to our east will still be nosed in across portions of
north/central Georgia through the overnight hours. With
overrunning precipitation/isentropic lift ahead of the next front,
expect a chance of light precipitation by early Monday morning.
However, as heights fall and the sfc high shifts even further
offshore, expect the wedge to erode and return flow to develop
area wide through Monday. This will mean a moist airmass will
quickly infiltrate the region as the front nears. It should be
noted that much of the dynamics and lift associated with the front
will be north of the area, so not expecting a complete washout or
severe threat with this boundary. The front will eventually become
stalled and wash out across the region through Wednesday. With mid
level impulses crossing, this will allow the boundary to be the
focus for sfc low development through mid-week. Therefore, expect
a wet and mild first half of the week. With little mid/upper level
forcing, do not see much in the way of instability, so have kept
thunder out of the grids. As a trough crosses to our north, it
will allow cold high pressure to the NW to build into the region.
Meanwhile a deepening trough to the west will eject mid-level
impulses toward the region. Another overrunning precipitation
scenario may take shape. Either way, as the sfc high settles
offshore and moist southerly flow increase by Friday/Saturday,
looking at an increase potential for precipitation by the end of
TAFs should remain VFR through most of tonight. Some SCT MVFR
clouds should begin to increase by 12z on Sunday...quickly
becoming overcast. Not expecting any precip at this time. Winds
will flirt with due north for the next several hours and speeds
will be 5kt or less. However, the winds should eventually go over
to the east side by mid afternoon. Speeds should remain light
through the period at 7-8kt or less.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 48 29 47 39 / 0 0 20 30
Atlanta 47 32 48 42 / 0 0 20 30
Blairsville 43 25 45 37 / 0 0 30 50
Cartersville 46 29 49 41 / 0 0 20 40
Columbus 51 33 55 48 / 0 0 20 30
Gainesville 45 30 45 39 / 0 0 30 40
Macon 51 31 54 45 / 0 0 20 30
Rome 46 26 51 41 / 0 0 20 50
Peachtree City 48 29 49 40 / 0 0 20 30
Vidalia 52 35 60 50 / 0 5 20 30