Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 271933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE
SHORT TERM.  LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN STATES EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND FILL...LEAVING AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR
CENTRAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET TEMPERATURES.

41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE RETURN IN FULL SWING AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM WITH
PATTERN FEATURING H5 CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF AND EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NE. 310K SURFACES STILL INDICATING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON SATURDAY AS S/SW FLOW ALOFT RIDES ATOP E/SE SFC FLOW. THIS
SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOO AS MUCAPES REBOUND BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO EJECT OUT OF GOM CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND ASCENT TO ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE LATE IN THE
DAY.

CLOSED LOW THEN EJECTS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN. DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN RAIN/STORM CHANCES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/25-35KTS/AND PWATS
APPROACHING 2IN SUGGEST ANY ONGOING/ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EVIDENCE OF A DRY SLOT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY ON SUN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MON MOSTLY DRY.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BLURRED BY TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. 12Z
GFS/CMC RIDE THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL WHILE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM MORE WWD INTO SOUTHERN FL. STILL
UNCLEAR WHETHER MAJORITY OF CWA WILL BE AFFECTED...THO ANY
PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREND COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING.

KOVACIK

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... MVFR SLOWLY IMPROVING AND SHOULD BE
VFR SCT-BKN040 OR HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AROUND 09Z FRIDAY MORNING AND IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED EXCEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CENTRAL GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
12-14KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8KT
OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  86  69  84 /  10  10  10  50
ATLANTA         67  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  81  62  80 /   5   5  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    65  88  68  85 /   5   5  10  30
COLUMBUS        69  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  50
GAINESVILLE     67  84  68  82 /   5  10  10  40
MACON           67  90  71  87 /  10  20  20  50
ROME            64  88  68  85 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  64  88  70  84 /   5  10  10  40
VIDALIA         71  89  72  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....KOVACIK
AVIATION...41


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.