Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS65 KFGZ 240406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
906 PM MST Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to slowly trend downward into next week.
The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase
over the weekend and into next week, mainly for Apache and
southern Navajo counties. Gusty southwest winds will likely
develop Tuesday and Wednesday.


Main concern for the overnight period will be areas of smoke from
area wildfires. Otherwise, hot temps to persist this weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION /345 PM MST/...Enough moisture moved over
northern Arizona today to produce cumulus clouds over much of
the higher terrain. A few showers have developed over southern
Navajo County, eastern Gila County, and northern Apache County
this afternoon. This activity is expected to diminish by dark this
evening. The near surface winds and drainage winds could bring
smoke from area wildfires into the Page (Brianhead Fire) and
Flagstaff (Boundary Fire) areas again tonight.

High pressure will remain over Arizona through the weekend...and
will weaken slowly. This will lead to continued above normal
temperatures across northern Arizona. The Excessive Heat Warning
for the lowest elevations of northern Arizona remains in effect
through Sunday evening. However, temperatures will begin to slowly
trend downward into next week. Moisture will continue to slowly
increase...especially over into Apache and southern Navajo
counties this weekend and next week with shower and thunderstorm
chances increasing.

A trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and
RockY Mountains will bring gusty southwest winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. At this time, it appears wind gusts could approach
the advisory criteria of 40 mph and critical fire weather
thresholds may be met.

There continues to be no indication of significant monsoon
moisture making it into the region next week, but this will
continued to be monitored over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
for the 24 hour period, though smoke from area wildfires may
bring MVFR/IFR conditions to KFLG and KPGA overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect warm and mainly dry conditions over the
weekend. Moisture moving into eastern Arizona from New Mexico will
bring a chance of high based showers and thunderstorms to the
White Mountains, Chuska Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim
by Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm conditions will persist on Monday
with a chance for high based showers and thunderstorms continuing
over east-central Arizona. A slight cooling trend will develop
Monday and Tuesday as drier westerly flow develops. Expect shower
activity to be pushed east of the district during this time, with
increasingly gusty southwest winds developing.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.