Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242238
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS
RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE.
THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. EXPECT CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ ON SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE UT
BORDER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 40
TO 45 MPH. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
COMBINE WITH A MODERATE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...CENTRAL AZ BY 11 AM MST FRIDAY...AND WILL CLEAR THE NM
BORDER BY 6 PM MST. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AND WITH A
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE
MOGOLLON RIM...GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE COLD AIR BOTTOMS OUT OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 5500 FEET COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SNOW BEGINS BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING...WE`RE CONFIDENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS BUT ARE LESS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN AZ. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FOR SOME MELTING TO OCCUR.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS DECREASING SATURDAY
EVENING AND COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. A DRIER MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MAY
SAG SOUTH INTO THE STATE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AFT
16-18Z...WINDS BCMG SW20-30G40KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ105-
109>114-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ004>007-
009>015-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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