Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 170346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
846 PM MST Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warm temperatures and dry conditions through
Tuesday with just a few higher level clouds sneaking across
northern Arizona. For Wednesday and Thursday a weak weather
disturbance will combine with increased moisture for partly to
mostly cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles over the higher
terrain. Another passing disturbance will produce breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is in store, with morning low
temperatures dipping into the upper-20`s and 30`s across much of
the High Country. The current forecast is on track and no updates
are anticipated this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /215 PM MST/...High pressure will build over
Arizona through Tuesday continuing the warm and dry weather
stretch. Afternoon high temperatures will be around 10 degrees
above mid October averages. Generally light winds are also

By Wednesday, a more moist westerly flow develops spreading clouds
and perhaps a few light showers across northern Arizona. The
increased clouds and possibility of a few light showers will
continue into Thursday, when there may be enough instability for a
few thunderstorms across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds begin to
increase Thursday afternoon and even more so on Friday while a
trough is forecast to move through the Great Basin. Winds will
shift to the north Saturday while the trough heads east. Expect
closer to average temperatures Friday and Saturday, increasing
again by early next week.

Forecast models in the extended range are in good agreement
building a ridge over the region through at least the first part
of next week resulting in continued warm and dry weather.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Over the next 24 hrs, expect
VFR conditions under a few high clouds and winds generally less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
Tuesday. 20 foot and mixing layer winds at less than 10 mph through
Tuesday. Ventilation looks fair at best during the afternoons,
otherwise poor.

Wednesday through Friday...Increasing mid and high level moisture
will bring cloud cover to all and a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the high country through Thursday. 20 foot and
mixing layer to remain light through Thursday. 20 foot winds should
become light southwest Thursday night and then increase Friday as a
cold front moves through the Great Basin.





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