Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261102
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN
UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME AREAS...BUT
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A STANDARD
PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE ACTIVITY
MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z AND LAST THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET. IMPACTS ARE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM LOCALLY
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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