Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012249
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
349 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MORE DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A  DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THEN DECREASE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 17Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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