Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291602
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH STORM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EASTERN ARIZONA
BORDER. THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL DRY OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND UPDATES ARE NOT
NEEDED THIS MORNING.

12Z SOUNDING AT FLAGSTAFF SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A QUIET START TO THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CHANGE THE PROFILES BY THE AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A 20-30 PERCENT INCREASE
IN PW VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
REMAIN QUIET IN THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

BY SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PW VALUES ARRIVE...ALONG WITH HIGHER CAPE
AND A DECENT LOOKING SHEAR PROFILE. STORMS ON SUNDAY HAVE A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. AFTER SUNDAY...DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
NEXT WEEK...LIMITING STORM COVERAGE TO OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND SW OF A LINE FROM KKNB-KGCN-KFLG-
KSJN. STORMS CAPABLE OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 01-02Z...BUT WITH A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...TAYLOR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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