Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
FXUS65 KFGZ 191137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
435 AM MST Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue across most of northern and
central Arizona today. There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the White Mountains this afternoon and evening.
Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms then move back north and
west, affecting much of the area by Sunday and into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to increase across Arizona as more
favorable southerly flow pattern develops. We expect several days of
this southerly flow, due to a somewhat unusual low off the southern
California coast and high pressure over Texas. MCS activity over
northern Mexico will translate into southern Arizona, with northward
moving outflows by this evening and Sunday. Eventually, we will be
back into a low to medium grade monsoon pattern, by tomorrow or

We will stay in this pattern through Wednesday or Thursday. At some
point later next week, the low is progged to open up and move east.
This will bring drier air back over the area and activity will
exhibit a downward trend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist at TAF sites through the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms
are possible over eastern Arizona aft 19Z today, producing isolated
MVFR visibility. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Most areas of northern Arizona will remain dry
today, with a few thunderstorms possible over eastern Arizona.
Moisture returns to much of northern Arizona on Sunday, and with it
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday...Thunderstorm chances persist through the
period. Light southwesterly afternoon breezes are expected.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.