Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 131048
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL THEN MIGRATE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKED ON RADAR IS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH COCONINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY REACH THE FLAGSTAFF REGION JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HELPS TO DEFINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA AND UTAH THROUGH
MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA ALSO SHOW A EASTERLY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STREAMING DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA
RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR WEATHER MODELS AGREE THAT THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA
CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD.
HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE AND AIR MASS INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR
MORE NORMAL MONSOON SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FLOW
ALOFT THAT AFFECTS STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE LIGHT WESTERLY AND A
BIT ERRATIC ON TUESDAY...THIS MEANS THAT TUESDAYS STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE MORE OUTFLOW DRIVEN. BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM MOTION
WINDS BECOME STRONGER WESTERLIES WHICH TENDS TO DRIVE STORMS
EASTWARD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INSTEAD OF NORTH TO SOUTH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE RIM COUNTRY.

THURSDAY ONWARD...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A MOISTURE BLOCKING
POSITION WITH THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER MOISTURE
LEVELS...SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 13-15 KFT AGL UNTIL 17Z. AFTER 17Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KRQE-KFLG-KPRC LINE WITH STORM ACTIVITY
MORE ISOLATED NORTH OF THIS LINE. STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER
03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD TODAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE THAT STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD RICHER MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED FURTHER NORTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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