Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 051139 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT AS NOTED BY FOG IR IMAGERY AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET.

RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL POP UP
WITH MAX HEATING BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR MVFR CIGS NEAR WACO REGIONAL...WE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT CHANGES IN THE MODELS WITH EACH RUN
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS. SIMILAR TO THE 04/12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY...MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN COMPARISON TO THE 04/00Z RUNS LAST
NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND BEST
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OREGON
AND WASHINGTON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE THE
NEXT SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL FINALLY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND SHIFT OUR UPPER LEVELS TO A NORTH-FLOW/TROUGHING
PATTERN.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCUR AS A SMALL JET STREAK AT 250 MB
NOSES INTO THE REGION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY
ARE BOTH ATTEMPTING TO BACKDOOR A FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK WITH THIS FRONT
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THAT TIME
AND POSSIBLY STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAKENING
RIDGE...PREFER TO KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS MORE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND A FRONT MOVES DOWN THE PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW ON FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S 00Z MODEL RUNS AND THE TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AGAIN. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE FORECAST CHANGES AS
WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY AGREEING TO
ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT THE FORCAST
REPRESENTS MORE OF A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS. HOPEFULLY SOME
CONSISTENCY CAN BE GAINED AND WE CAN ENJOY THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WELCOME RAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT THERE ARE RAIN CHANCES OVER PART OF THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.

EVEN WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THERE IS INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WHICH IS LIKELY TO
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA THAT MAY SEE RAIN IS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE PWAT VALUES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST AROUND 2 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITHIN AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR POP-UP SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. FOR TODAY...WILL MENTION ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO WEATHERFORD TO
LAMPASAS. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION
SHIFTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BUT BE A HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A HOT LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT CHANGES IN THE MODELS WITH EACH RUN
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS. SIMILAR TO THE 04/12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY...MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN COMPARISON TO THE 04/00Z RUNS LAST
NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND BEST
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OREGON
AND WASHINGTON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE THE
NEXT SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL FINALLY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND SHIFT OUR UPPER LEVELS TO A NORTH-FLOW/TROUGHING
PATTERN.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCUR AS A SMALL JET STREAK AT 250 MB
NOSES INTO THE REGION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY
ARE BOTH ATTEMPTING TO BACKDOOR A FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK WITH THIS FRONT
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THAT TIME
AND POSSIBLY STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAKENING
RIDGE...PREFER TO KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS MORE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND A FRONT MOVES DOWN THE PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW ON FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S 00Z MODEL RUNS AND THE TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AGAIN. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE FORECAST CHANGES AS
WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY AGREEING TO
ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT THE FORCAST
REPRESENTS MORE OF A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS. HOPEFULLY SOME
CONSISTENCY CAN BE GAINED AND WE CAN ENJOY THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WELCOME RAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  79  99  79  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              98  76  99  77  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             97  74  96  75  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            97  77  98  77  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  77  97  77  97 /  20  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            97  80  99  80  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  97  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         96  77  97  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82



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