Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020521 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE THE WAA ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND 4 KFT AND -RA/-DZ AND AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS.

DFW METRO CONTINUE TO BE LOW MVFR DESPITE THE ONSET OF SOME SPOTTY
-RA/-DZ. SO WILL START P6SM WITH LOW MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS
THROUGH 09Z...THEN PULL CIGS DOWN INTO LOWER IFR WITH OCCASIONAL
-DZ OR -RA. HAVE PULLED LIFR CONDS OUT OF FORECAST DESPITE THEM
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WILL GO DOWN AS LOW AS 600 FT AND
LET MID SHIFT REASSESS...AS NORTH WINDS MAINTAINING AROUND 10 KTS
SHOULD KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER A LITTLE MORE MIXED THAN THIS
TIME 24 HRS AGO.

WACO CURRENT LIFR WITH IFR VSBYS AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT THROUGH
15Z...THEN SLOWLY BRING THEM UP TO IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS BY MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN SLIDING ESE OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z TUES OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESSONING. THE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN SATURATED AND THOUGH WE COULD SEE
LIFR CIGS AND SOME FG...HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THIS FAR OUT.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY THOUGH
AND THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. 00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 750MB. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD
SURFACE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWER POPS A
BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SPOTTY IN NATURE.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHALLOW...COLD AIR REMAINING AT
THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE ARCTIC AIR.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE TEMPS MAY COOL BACK DOWN TO 32 DEGREES FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER DARK. EVEN IF TEMPS DO COOL TO 32 DEGREES NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A SLOW WARM UP AS MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER FINALLY
MELTS AND SOME WEAK SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
THE GULF FULLY OPENS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND EVEN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG ALONG WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. SOME MIDDLE 70S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE WEST DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING PREFRONTAL TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE INDICATING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ISOLATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT
HIGHER.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS. THINGS SHOULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASES. WE EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS ALL ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM NOSE
DISAPPEARS AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES BEGINS TO SATURATE.

IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE AMOUNT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM OR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WHAT WE DO
KNOW IS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE COMING A BIT MORE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT(IE. HOW COLD IT WILL GET) AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TOO PUT A
SLEET/SNOW AMOUNT WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE SINCE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. ONE THING THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS
THAT THE MODELS DO TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR AND
FOR THAT REASON I HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT OUTLOOK THIS POTENTIAL STORM
YET BUT AWAIT MORE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSENSUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT IN BOTH THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICALLY.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS BUT WE WILL LINGER SOME LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP OR A MIX IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF THE SUN. OUR FORECAST
MAY BE TOO WARM THURSDAY IF THE FEED OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT ANY TYPE OF SNOW COVER WOULD
ALSO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. EVEN IF TEMPS DO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY...THEY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD REFREEZE ANY RESIDUAL WATER.

THE EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  44  44  70  42 /  30  40  40  40  60
WACO, TX              36  45  45  73  48 /  30  30  30  30  60
PARIS, TX             36  45  42  68  41 /  40  50  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            33  42  42  71  38 /  30  30  40  40  60
MCKINNEY, TX          33  42  42  69  40 /  40  40  50  40  60
DALLAS, TX            34  44  44  70  42 /  30  40  50  40  60
TERRELL, TX           35  44  44  69  44 /  40  40  40  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         37  46  46  71  48 /  40  40  30  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            36  45  45  71  50 /  30  30  30  30  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  39  39  70  38 /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91


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