Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270236 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
936 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
While the cold front--or what`s left of it at least--has moved
well south and east of our area, moisture remains in great supply
above 850 mb. The moisture gradient, which is presently draped
from near Paris, southwestward to Cisco is making painstakingly
slow progress to the south, and the global models appear too
aggressive in scouring this moisture out. Given these recent
trends, I`ve made a few updates to slow down the decrease in
cloud cover and dewpoints tonight. In addition, some weak
isentropic ascent near 300 K may result in a few sprinkles
overnight. As a result, I`ve added a very low mention (10%) of
some sprinkles overnight south of the I-20 corridor where this
moist ascent will be maximized. Finally, the fog potential appears
pretty low at this time, as surface winds should stay up in the
4-8 kt range and plentiful cloud cover will help dampen the
radiational cooling potential. Updated products have been
transmitted.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

Clouds continue to linger across North Texas this evening but
drier air will filter into the region late tonight and into
Tuesday which will bring about a return to some sun. VFR
conditions prevail at the Metroplex taf sites and should continue
through the valid taf period. Farther south...weak isentropic
ascent continues which is supporting some MVFR cigs from just
south of the Metroplex down through the Waco/Temple/Killeen area.
These lower cigs will prevail through much of the night before the
drier air moves in allowing cigs to improve. Outside of the lower
cloud decks to the south...most of the precipitation has come to
an end. A few spits of rain will still be possible through late
evening but no major impacts are expected at this time. VFR
conditions with light north flow will prevail on Tuesday.

Dunn


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
The Nation`s weather is currently being dominated by a large upper
low, which can be seen on water vapor imagery spiraling across the
Great Lakes region. A tailing upper trough extends southwestward
into Central Texas, and currently represents the back edge of our
precipitation this afternoon. For North and Central Texas, this
portion of the upper level system is more or less co-located with
the 850MB front, which is progressing very slowly southeast across
the area. The slow movement of the 850 front may be at least
partially attributed to the presence of a second upper low over
Baja California. For this reason, the slight chance POPs have been
extended into the evening along and south of I-20 based on the
expected position of the elevated front.

Meanwhile, the surface cold front which pushed through last night
has cleared all counties of the forecast area and will continue
to make its way to the upper TX coast tonight. The lingering
precipitation in the cool sector kept temperatures a little lower
than expected, with about two-thirds of the area remaining in the
60s this afternoon. The warmer conditions were either immediately
along the Red River where sunshine was occurring or across the
southern-most counties closest to the front. Anyway, the
combination of drier air behind the front and gradually weakening
ascent will lead to an end to the precipitation during the
overnight hours tonight. We will also see clouds decrease from
north to south this evening and overnight, with the majority of
the region in the clear by Tuesday morning. Dry and sunny
conditions will be the norm for Tuesday with high temperatures in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The Great Lakes upper low will deepen and sink south into the Ohio
Valley tomorrow and Wednesday, where it will then remain quasi-
stationary through the end of the week. This will lead to an
amplifying ridge immediately upstream across the Central and
Southern Plains. Subsidence from the ridge will provide nice
weather across the forecast area for the rest of the work week and
likely into the weekend. There will be a secondary frontal surge
Wednesday Night, which will help maintain the dry weather through
the weekend. Days will be warm and sunny with highs in the 70s
and 80s, while nights will be cool and clear with lows in the 50s
and 60s. The next opportunity for rain will occur around the
middle of next week as a strong mid latitude trough sweeps
eastward across the nation.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  80  60  86  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                63  80  57  86  60 /  10  10   5   5   0
Paris               56  81  56  86  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  79  54  85  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  80  54  85  58 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dallas              62  80  61  87  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
Terrell             60  80  56  85  60 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  81  59  85  61 /  10   5   5   0   0
Temple              63  79  58  86  60 /  10  10   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       55  79  53  85  57 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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