Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 240541 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---FROPA timing. Generally VFR, but LOW potential for
brief MVFR ceilings in the vicinity of Metroplex terminals post-
FROPA.

Breezy and gusty southerly winds have persisted this evening as
the pressure gradient has yet to diminish. The gusty winds will
abate briefly; however, as a pre-frontal trough slides southeastward
and veers the winds to the west. A few echoes were noted ahead of
the pre-frontal trough near an KXBP to KGLE line, but with very
dry air per the 00 UTC FWD RAOB, rain at the surface is unlikely.
The dry air and presence of some mid-level echo, however, may
result in some turbulence as rain drops evaporate in the very dry
air for aircraft on approach to D10 airspace. The pre-frontal
trough should move through all Metroplex TAF sites by 08 UTC with
FROPA closer to 10 UTC. For Waco---the pre-frontal trough should
slide through the terminal around 09 UTC with FROPA closer to 13
UTC.

Upstream observations indicate a couple of things that warranted
some noticeable changes from the 00 UTC TAF issuance. The first is
the presence of a thin blanket of MVFR stratus across the OK/TX
Panhandles and SW KS. Trends in satellite imagery suggests that
this stratus will make a run at Metroplex TAF sites, but it`s
likely to encounter increasingly drier air as it sags southward
and this may hamper its ability to invade the Metroplex TAF sites.
Hi-resolution model guidance is consistent with this thinking and
for now, will only carry a mention of scattered clouds at FL025
at the Metroplex terminals. Waco should remain mostly SKC. The
other change was to increase wind speeds and include a mention of
gusts post FROPA for all TAF sites given upstream observations and
forecast surface pressure rises. Gusts in the 20 to 22 knot range
are expected as winds shift towards the northwest behind the front.
Skies should gradually clear through the day on Friday with winds
turning more towards the northeast by early Saturday morning.

24-Bain

&&

.UPDATE...
A cold front extended from a low over southeastern Kansas
southwest through southwestern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
at 9 PM. This front will move into the northwestern part of North
Texas after midnight. This front will move to near a Paris to
Dallas to Killeen line by 6 AM Friday. Winds have backed around to
the south and south-southeast this evening but will veer around
the southwest and west as the cold front approaches. Winds will
then shift to the northwest with frontal passage. Have adjusted
winds speeds up a little for this evening and adjusted the timing
of the front slightly based on the latest high resolution models.
This also prompted some minor adjustments to the overnight lows.
Updates have been sent.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Gusty south-southwest winds today have combined with record and
near record high temperatures for a warm, windy, and dry day
across North and Central Texas. DFW has once again broken a daily
record in February today with a current reading of 88 degrees at 3
pm and it`s highly possible we could reach 90 degrees before it`s
all said and done. The previous record high was 86 degrees in
1933. Waco`s record high is 89 degrees in 1996 and they currently
sit at 83 degrees, so chances are they will not break their
record. Out in our western counties, lower 90s were common and
elevated to high fire weather conditions will continue through 5-6
pm.

The record warmth will be short-lived however, as a strong cold
front currently entering northern Kansas surges across the Red
River Valley during the pre-dawn hours Friday before clearing our
Central Texas counties by midday Friday. It will be brisk and much
cooler, though not overly cold with highs in the 60s north to
lower 70s south. All the upper support for precipitation will be
well to the north, so this will be a dry frontal passage with
elevated fire concerns once again for at least the western two-
thirds of the CWA, where lower humidity values will combine with
occasionally gusty north winds around 15 mph.

Friday night will be definitely coat weather, as north winds of
10 to 15 mph continue. Lows by Saturday morning will range from
near freezing northwest to the lower 40s across Central Texas. A
surface high will settle across Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks
on Saturday with dry zonal flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine can be
expected with highs mainly in the 50s. South winds will return
Saturday night and become breezy on Sunday, as temperatures
moderate in advance of yet another fast-moving upper disturbance
to the west and the surface high shifts east of our area.

WAA in advance of the late weekend disturbance will rapidly surge
especially elevated moisture northward with surface dew points
only rising back into the 50s across Central Texas by Sunday
afternoon. With steepening lapse rates aloft and isentropic ascent
just above the surface, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within an area of large-scale ascent. It
appears the best moisture and storm coverage Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night will be along and east of I-35/35W. Sounding
profiles indicate much of this convection could be elevated in
nature due to an elevated mixed layer (or capping inversion aloft)
anchored around 800mb. That said, our far E/SE counties may see
warm and moist enough surface conditions for surface-based
storms. That said, with strong 50 knot westerly 0-6km bulk shear
that a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot completely be
rule out across our east/southeast counties Sunday night. We will
continue to monitor this time frame closely in the next few days.

The late weekend shortwave and associated Pacific cold front will
move through the area Monday morning with only isolated rain
chances remaining across the far eastern counties Monday morning.
Temperatures will be mild Monday with highs mostly in the 70s, as
little CAA will be associated with the Pacific cold front.
Surface cyclogenesis ahead of yet another shortwave moving
progressively east within zonal flow aloft occurs Monday night
and Tuesday with highs on Tuesday warming well into the 70s with
lows Tuesday night in the 50s with south breezes continuing. The
best moisture should remain across East Texas with the best
forcing occurring well north of our area, across Kansas and
Northern Oklahoma. Can`t rule out a few stray showers in the
eastern counties, but nothing of significance.

Otherwise, another brisk and cool day on Wednesday with highs 55
to 65 degrees with brisk north winds behind yet another cold
front arriving by Wednesday morning. A confluent split-flow
pattern over the Southern Plains next Thursday through Saturday
should result in dry and near seasonable conditions with highs
mostly in the 60s.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  68  37  57  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                55  72  37  60  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  67  36  55  36 /   5   5   5   0   0
Denton              50  66  33  55  37 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            52  67  35  56  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              54  69  38  57  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  69  38  57  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  71  40  59  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              57  74  38  61  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  67  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/58



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