Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301820 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...GRADUALLY DESCENDING CEILINGS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT BEGINS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DFW/DAL ALREADY IN SOUTH FLOW.

MOIST UPPER FLOW IS STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS...
STEADILY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. AS THESE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ALOFT
MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2 MILES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. BY MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS/VSBY...WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE 18Z
TAFS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FEW CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. I DID SLOW DOWN THE START OF THE
PRECIP BASED ON A SLOWER TREND IN THE MODELS. IT WILL TAKE A BIT
OF TIME FOR ELEVATED PRECIP TO EVAPORATE AND MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEFORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CAN START. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPRINKLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT ONLY THE FEW THAT CAN
HIT THE SURFACE BEFORE COMPLETELY EVAPORATING. AREAL AVERAGED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM ABOUT A THIRD TO A HALF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN PRECIP HAS ENDED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN. ON
MONDAY MORNING...WHEN CLEARING AND A COLDER AIR MASS ARE IN
PLACE...LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE.

COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DROP SOUTH AND PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
COASTAL TX...KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT IS BASED ON POTENTIAL WOBBLE IN
THE LOW/S PATH. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  42  52  47  53 /   5  10  60  90  50
WACO, TX              57  42  54  50  57 /  10  10  60  70  60
PARIS, TX             54  38  51  43  52 /   5  10  40  90  60
DENTON, TX            55  41  49  44  52 /   5  10  70  90  50
MCKINNEY, TX          54  39  51  45  53 /   5  10  60  90  50
DALLAS, TX            56  42  52  47  54 /   5  10  60  90  50
TERRELL, TX           55  40  54  48  56 /   5  10  50  80  60
CORSICANA, TX         56  41  55  50  59 /   5  10  50  70  60
TEMPLE, TX            56  42  55  51  59 /  10  10  60  70  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  41  49  45  51 /  10  20  90  80  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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