Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 110832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
532 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORT LIVED
LIGHTNING STORM MIGRATING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY EAST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THE WATERS FROM HAWK CHANNEL
NORTHWARD...AND EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO A LATE NIGHT
QUICKSCAT PASS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITHIN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) WILL GOVERN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR MOST OF TODAY...
BEFORE AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX TO
GENERATE PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED CELLS TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...A MINOR LOW LEVEL UNDULATION
ACCOMPANIED BY A POCKET OF MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THAT SAID...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS TODAY...LOW CHANCE
POPS WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A DOSE OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE
WISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT STEAMY LOWS IN THE
LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AND STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOWN
THE SUNSHINE STATE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
BECAUSE OF THE EQUATORWARD MIGRATION OF THE ANTICYCLONE...TYPICAL
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND CHAOTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL
UNDULATIONS AND THE APPROACHING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...A LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FAVORABLE CELL REGIME SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE DAYTIME MESOSCALE GENESIS. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
RETAINED WHICH COINCIDES WITH BOTH ECX AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FOR KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN INTO THE LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...NO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BRIEF EPISODE OF DEEP DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING...THUS...RAIN CHANCES AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS WILL
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MORE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL RETURN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR TEMPORARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DUE TO THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91 83 91 83 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  92 81 93 81 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE//DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/CLIMATE..............CLR

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