Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 260207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1007 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...A quiet evening across the Florida Keys. The radar is
largely echo free under mostly clear skies. Temperatures are in the
mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. Humidity is elevated, but
this is seasonal for the Keys. East to southeast breezes average 10
to 15 knots at the available marine observation platforms.

Water vapor and infrared satellite imagery reveal a large area of
convection across the central Gulf of Mexico. The unsettled weather
is due to a westward moving interaction between an mid-upper level
low and a weak surface trough. As this feature recedes west, the
subtropical ridge is regaining real estate across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. As surface pressures rise across the Florida Peninsula
breezes will freshen from the east-southeast. This evening`s sounding
sampled a moist and moderately unstable profile. Precipitable water
calculations indicate levels are near the 75th percentile.
Conversely, ML 0-3km CAPE is below the 25th percentile. So, the
atmosphere is moist enough, but inhibited down low, no wonder the
radar is quiet. Loops from MIMIC TPW place drier air upstream which
will only add to the suppression of shower activity. We advertise 20
percent chances overnight, which is above guidance, but below normal
for this time of year. No updates planned.


.MARINE...Freshening east-southeast breezes are expected across all
Keys coastal waters, maximizing Wednesday through Thursday at 15 to
20 knots. Small Craft will likely need to Exercise Caution due to the
increasing winds and building seas. The winds Gulf and Bay side of
the island chain may be a few knots less than the Atlantic side.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight into
early Tuesday at the Key West and Marathon terminals. A few showers
may venture into the vicinity during the early morning hours, but
only for short durations. Mainly east winds 6 to 10 knots this
evening are expected to pick up a few hours after sunrise Thursday
with occasional gusts over 15 knots by afternoon.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection......DR

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