Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 280220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016


.Currently...Skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower
to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are
detecting an increasing area of showers and a few thunderstorms on
the nearshore and offshore waters southeast of the Middle and Upper
Keys. Surface wise, an area of low pressure is located just north of
the north central coast of Cuba, with a weak region of high pressure
well north of our region. Winds are northeast near 15 knots except
near 10 knots at Pulaski Shoal light.


.SHORT TERM (Rest of tonight)...
Given an abundance already in place, a deepening cyclonic flow combined
with an increasing northeast trajectory will prompt likely pops to be
retained overnight. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely along
the island chain. Due to the expected rainfall, low temperatures will range
from the mid 70s to near 80 under mostly cloudy skies.


.Changes in this marine package...
Increased winds a category on all of our marine district tonight
through Monday. Furthermore, an exercise caution headline/advisory may
be needed on at least a portion of our marine district. And as usual, winds
and seas will be higher near showers, thunderstorms and outflow boundaries.


Expect episodic MVFR to IFR conditions through 29/06z at both the
Key West and Marathon International Terminals. The Keys area is on
the edge of cyclonic flow with deep tropical moisture moving into
the area through Sunday. With this in mind and monitoring high
resolution guidance, will keep vicinity showers in the forecast
through early in the overnight period, then reduce ceilings and
visibilities after 03z to 05z through Sunday morning. After 13z to
15z, ceilings and or visibilities will decrease further as
thunderstorms move across the area. This timing is preliminary and
may need adjustments as episodes unfold.


In 1950, the daily record cold high temperature of 81F was recorded. This
is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in August.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection......SC

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