Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 301818
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.