Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 250134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF AND SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...ITS BEEN EXTREMELY QUIET WITH LOCAL RADARS NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SURFACE WISE...A
TENUOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS ALONG
THE REEF. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS SOME DRIER AIR
HAS SEEPED IN BELOW 500 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHILE A LIGHT
AND CHAOTIC WIND TRAJECTORY REMAINS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED (SURFACE-500 MB) WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN UPPER LOW (200-300 MB) JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME WESTERN TIP OF CUBA CRAWLS SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. IN ADDITION...ITS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT THE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW 85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM EDT...WHICH WILL BREAK THE PREVIOUS
MAX/MIN RECORD OF 84 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2011.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 7 AND 6 KNOTS AT
1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS EAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV
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