Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011608
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED
SOME SLIGHT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTENING JUST
BELOW A PERSISTENT INVERSION LAYER BASED AROUND 5000 FEET ELEVATION.
THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
FORCED BY MOVEMENT OF A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A SHALLOW LAYER
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...AND HAS FACILITATED DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING
STRATOCUMULUS DECKS...RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S IN
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES...AND DEWPOINTS ARE UP IN THE LOWER 60S
THANKS TO A STEADY EAST BREEZE. A BROKEN BAND OF SHALLOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN DETECTED BY KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS REMAINED FAR FROM LAND THUS FAR.

FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR FLORIDA BAY.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BOX FURTHER FROM SOUTH TO WEST ON
MONDAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. THEREAFTER...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
GOVERN...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. &&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING...BLOWING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND CALMING DOWN THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONTINUE AT AROUND 040-050 TODAY.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-
     GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-
     GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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