Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271952
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
252 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A TROUGH IS
ALIGNED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST...WHILE A SMALL
AREA OVER OUR GULF WATERS REMAIN BACKED TO NORTHEAST. THERE IS LIKELY
STILL SOME FOG OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AT LEAST LOW CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. DESPITE A BLANKET OF
THICK CIRRUS MIGRATING THROUGH OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
NUDGE TO 80 DEGREES...AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE 70 DEGREES. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE...AND NO
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

FORECAST - THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...THEN SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE AXIS SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL TREND
DOWNWARDS AND TIP MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HEADING INTO MID WEEK...HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRUNG OUT EAST WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY THE KEYS BY
MID WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COL MOVES NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. OUTSIDE OF A NIGHT OR TWO OF POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL CLIMB WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STALLING FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A LARGE HIGH CELL WILL ARC
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COUNTRIES MID SECTION...THEN EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH WILL BRIDGE OVER THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL BACK NORTHEAST
TO EAST. MEANWHILE...THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES
FURTHER EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THAT
SAID...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE OUTER/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF
WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST. LIGHT AND...AT TIMES VARIABLE...BREEZES
WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA...CUTTING THE KEYS OFF FROM ANY SOURCE OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRIDGE OVER THE DISSIPATING FRONT...AND RETURN GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  80  73  80 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  72  81  73  81 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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