Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 261944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. MEANWHILE...A
FORMIDABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE POKING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OLD MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
ENSURE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB THIS
WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL DIME
POPS ARE INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE APPRECIABLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH OUR AREA LYING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNDERCUT
BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A ISOTHERMAL/INVERSION LAYER
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. GIVEN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF SLACKENING
OCCURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MODEST WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ABATING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...FRESH TO STRONG
MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 27/18Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DUE TO A NORTH CROSSWIND 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  70  60  69 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  60  69  58  68 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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