Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 232320
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.AVIATION...Most precip has pushed offshore this eve, leaving only
-DZ over land. This activity too will wane by 02Z as sfc low pulls
off to NE. Overall cigs remain VFR, but moist conditions may
bring some tempo MVFR cigs at times overnight along with patchy
BR. Winds light/vrb most of overnight, trending WNW towards
daybreak. Gusty W winds 10-15kts after 14Z ahead of approaching
front. May see a brief SHRA or two with boundary, but chances too
low to mention at this time.
.UPDATE...The weak surface low that brought us our much needed
rainfall today is crossing the southern peninsula out into the
Atlantic this evening. This has pushed the deep tropical moisture
and heavy rain out to our east, leaving only the occasional
sprinkle. This activity too will wane shortly with sunset.
No additional rainfall is expected, capping off the wettest day
most areas have seen all year so far. As of 4pm, Fort Lauderdale
and West Palm Beach already broke their record rainfall for the
day, with Miami tying its record.
Upstream, a frontal boundary will begin to approach the region
from the west, and with lingering low-level moisture coupled with
recent rainfall, light winds, and smoke from ongoing wildfires,
patchy fog will be possible tonight across portions of the
interior and Gulf Coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the 60s.
Updates to the forecast to lower rain chances and cloud cover with
current satellite/radar trends, leaving dry conditions over land
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT...An area of low pressure continues to move
northeast across the region this afternoon, bringing much needed
rainfall to most of South Florida. This rainfall has been moderate
to locally heavy at times, with many areas seeing a good inch of
rainfall, with localized higher amounts of 3-6 inches reported in
portions of the east coast metro. While this rainfall has
certainly been beneficial, it has only put a dent into the ongoing
drought situation for most areas.
Current radar imagery continues to be quite active for eastern and
southern areas this afternoon, with a line of moderate to heavy rain
with a few embedded storms across the far southern peninsula
northeastward into the local Atlantic waters. Further northwest
across portions of the interior and Gulf Coast, only scattered
showers remain, with isolated showers across portions of the lake
region and Palm Beach County. For the rest of this afternoon and
into this evening, additional showers and a few storms will be
possible mainly across southeastern areas, with localized heavy
rainfall and minor urban street flooding still possible especially
in the southern Miami suburbs and into Homestead.
The tropical moisture plume that brought PWAT values to near 2.0
inches continues to shift off to the east, and for tonight,
convective coverage will rapidly decrease from west to east, with
only isolated to widely scattered showers remaining across far
eastern areas. Upstream, a frontal boundary will begin to approach
the region from the west, and with lingering low-level moisture
coupled with recent rainfall, light winds, and smoke from ongoing
wildfires, patchy fog will be possible tonight across portions of
the interior and Gulf Coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the low pressure passage Sunday night, winds will
shift to the west/northwest as a frontal boundary associated with a
sharp upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS swings across the
region Monday. Current timing of the frontal passage appears to be
during the afternoon and evening hours, with the bulk of the
tropical moisture being shunted off well to the east. Still, enough
low-level moisture and forcing associated with the front itself will
allow for some widely scattered showers to accompany its passage.
There continues to remain some signals in the model guidance that
just enough instability may be present to allow for a broken line of
more moderate showers and possibly a storm or two, but confidence in
this scenario remains rather low given the significant amount of dry
air in the midlevels.
In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure will begin to
build into the region on Tuesday ushering in a much drier airmass.
Dry weather and mostly sunny skies will prevail with continued
west/northwest flow. Temperatures Monday will generally be in the
mid 80s for most, although a few east coast areas may spike into the
upper 80s and even near 90 with the west/northwest flow. Highs on
Tuesday will be slightly cooler, but still reach into the lower and
middle 80s for most. Low temperatures will range from the upper
50s/near 60 for portions of the interior and Gulf Coast to mid and
upper 60s for eastern areas.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally quiet and dry weather will prevail through the long term
period, as high pressure builds and remains in control across the
region. Outside of local sea breeze effects during the afternoon and
early evening hours, the flow will be south/southeasterly, keeping
humid conditions in place across the region with dewpoints well into
the 60s and even lower 70s by the end of the work week. With high
temperatures soaring well into the 80s, and even lower 90s across
portions of the interior and Gulf Coast by the end of the work week,
it will feel a bit like summer across South Florida during the
period. Low temperatures will be mild as well, with mid to upper 60s
in the interior and Gulf Coast and low to mid 70s along the east
Low pressure will continue to move northeast across the region
through tonight, with winds shifting to the west/northwest in its
wake and generally under 15 knots. Numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through this evening
especially for the local Atlantic waters, with coverage becoming
more scattered as the night progresses. Another round of widely
scattered showers and an isolated storm or two will be possible
Monday as a frontal passage moves across the region. Winds with the
frontal passage will briefly increase to around 20 knots, but
duration should be short enough to preclude any Small Craft Advisory
In the wake of the frontal passage, the flow will gradually become
southerly to southeasterly 15 knots or less for the rest of the work
week with generally dry weather. Seas will generally be 4 feet or
less over the next several days, except briefly 4-7 feet with the
frontal passage Monday.
In the wake of the departing low pressure system and frontal
passage, winds will shift to the west/northwest reducing the rip
current risk for the Atlantic beaches. However, rip current risk
looks to be at least Moderate for the Gulf Coast beaches on Monday
and possibly into Tuesday as well.
Despite much needed recent rainfall across the region, drier air
will once again be ushered into the region in the wake of a
frontal passage Monday. Relative humidity levels and wind speeds
may reach critical levels during the afternoon hours Tuesday
through Thursday across portions of South Florida, and conditions
will continue to be closely monitored for the potential issuance
of a Fire Weather Watch as we get closer in time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 67 82 64 84 / 10 20 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 72 87 68 84 / 10 20 0 0
Miami 71 88 69 84 / 20 20 0 0
Naples 71 81 64 80 / 10 20 10 10