Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 312341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

This evenings update reflects a small trend upward of showers and
thunderstorms possible across the Atlantic waters, and possible
along the southeast Florida coast. Still kept chance PoPs over
the water, but spread further north, and firing up a little
earlier, as per current Hi-res models, and radar showing isolated
showers and storms already forming over the Atlantic. This is also
shown in the ECMWF, but the GFS doesn`t pick up on the weather for
tonight very well. The upper level low has some fluctuations
between convergence and weak divergence aloft. This, along with a
likely land breeze tonight, should help keep most of them off
shore, and isolated to low end scattered tonight. Otherwise,
convection has come to an end over the mainland, and only minor
tweaks to other elements to account for current conditions.


Earlier showers and thunderstorms have dissipated over South
Florida, with some active thunderstorms early this evening north
and west of Lake Okeechobee. Do not expect any of this activity to
impact South Florida TAF sites early this evening as VFR
conditions will prevail. Weak east wind flow may bring a few
showers or thunderstorms to the east coast after 06z similar to
the past couple of nights. For this reason included VCTS in
MIA/FLL area sites late tonight. Light east wind pattern remains
mostly the same for Wednesday as showers and thunderstorms
developing near the Southeast Florida TAF sites after 14z push
inland and away from the area around 19z. Gulf sea breeze at APF
around 16z will eventually trigger showers and thunderstorms near
the Gulf coast by 19z, with VCTS indicated at APF for the time
being. /Molleda


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

An upper level trough, along with the east coast sea breeze has
brought showers and thunderstorms to South Florida today, which
should continue into this evening. As most of the activity has
pushed off to the west, the southeast Florida coast is seeing
mainly light showers at this time. Tonight should see mostly quiet
weather across the area. Models are indicating there could be some
showers and storms over some of the South Florida coastal waters
through the night.

By tomorrow, the 500mb trough begins to weaken. However, the sea
breezes still look to form, with the Atlantic sea breeze dominate,
and the Gulf breeze barely making inland from the coast. This
should bring another round of showers and storms to the region,
but, without as much support, may be a little less in coverage,
and should focus more in the interior, although it is still not
out of the question that most of South Florida see some unsettled
weather tomorrow. It just may be at various times, and possibly
not last as long in any given area as today.

By Thursday, the 500mb trough is gone, and some ridging may try to
build over the area. However, even if it does, it will be weak,
and not hinder the diurnal activity much at all, which looks to
develop with the sea breezes once again. This pattern looks to
hold fast into the weekend, with mainly afternoon showers and
storms over the region daily.

By the beginning of next week, a wave of moisture makes it way
northward, towards the CWA. Models are showing showers and storms
affecting parts of South Florida on Monday. The GFS shows a 500mb
trough digging over the eastern US at this time as well. The GFS
has the trough keeping most of the moisture offshore at this time,
affecting areas mainly from somewhere between I75 and Tamiami
Trail, south. The ECMWF Has a similar scenario, but instead of the
trough pushing the wave of moisture to the east, it draws it
north, affecting the entire area at some point Monday, before it
transitions over Central Florida. Model blends indicate showers
and storms are likely Monday and Tuesday, and with a wave of
moisture looking to head to the area, can find little reason to
disagree at this point, so kept the PoPs high for the beginning of
next week.

So, for this week, through the weekend, looks like fairly typical
diurnal cycles of showers and storms for South Florida. Highs look
to sit right around 90 across the area through the weekend as
well. Then, for the beginning of next week, a wave of moisture
moves northward and brings high chances for showers and storms to
the area for Monday and Tuesday.

Marine conditions look fairly benign through the weekend. There
will be showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend
however, but the sea state should be between 1 and 3 feet. By
Monday, the wind increases out of the South, and seas build to 4
to 6 feet across the South Florida Atlantic waters. There looks to
be little in the way of rip current risk through the weekend, as
the east wind doesn`t increase but to around 10 kts for short
periods at a time.


West Palm Beach  74  88  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  76  88  77  89 /  20  40  20  30
Miami            75  89  77  90 /  20  50  10  40
Naples           73  89  74  91 /  20  40  30  40


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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