Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 272345 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Easterly winds will be 10 to 15 knots tonight, before increasing
to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots on Sunday over the east
coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the winds will be light and
variable tonight before becoming easterly around 10 knots on
Sunday.

VCTS will continue tonight into Sunday for the east coast taf
sites, while KAPF taf site remains dry tonight into Sunday
morning. VCTS will then be added to KAPF taf sites for Sunday
afternoon.

The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions for all of the
taf sites through Sunday. However, the ceiling and vis could fall
down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with any shower or
thunderstorm passing over the taf site.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 709 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

UPDATE...
At 7 pm edt, a few thunderstorms were observed on radar moving
west across Collier and Monroe counties. A field of stratiform
rain was lingering over the Gulf offshore waters, leftovers of
earlier strong convection. Around the Atlantic coast, a couple of
thunderstorms were developing over eastern Broward county, while a
cluster of thunderstorms was approaching West Palm Beach from the
Atlantic. The scattered nature of this activity falls well within
the POPS/Weather grids currently in place. Thus, no significant
adjustments will be made to the forecast for this update.

Expect additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to move from
east to west across the area through the overnight hours, with
best chances over the Atlantic coast and interior areas.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Sunday...surface analysis and model data continues to
depict deep and broad high pressure over most of the southeast
states, and keeping a generally northeast to easterly across
Florida. Meanwhile, a very humid and warm tropical airmass remains
over South Florida and the surrounding Atlantic coastal waters,
which will keep supporting passing scattered showers and
thunderstorms tonight, and becoming numerous on Sunday.

The abundant tropical moisture is being enhanced by a tropical
wave, currently located over the southern Bahamas, and gradually
approaching the Florida straits. Sounding and model data still
shows PWAT values above seasonal normals, over 2 inches across
most of the area. More widespread coverage is possible right
along the southern tip of Florida where the best pool of moisture
resides.

The risk of rip currents will remain moderate over the Atlantic
beaches tonight.

Monday-Saturday...expect additional unsettled weather to continue
during the first half of next week with scattered to locally
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Higher chances are
still expected in the afternoon and evening hours, but rain and
thunderstorms will also occur during the nighttime and morning
periods. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the
primary threats. In addition, the abundant moisture will keep
conditions muggy and humid.

Forecast rainfall amounts show potential for isolated 4 to 5
inches with the heaviest downpours, mainly in the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe. However, it is important to keep in mind that these
amounts will be highly dependent on the final track and outcome of
the tropical wave. The unsettled weather may extend into Thursday,
although coverage should be decreasing by then. A more typical
summer pattern should return to South Florida for the upcoming
weekend.

The risk of rip currents will likely increase to high with the
stronger and gustier winds during the Monday to Tuesday time
frame.

MARINE...
Small craft should exercise caution over all the Atlantic coastal
waters during the next couple of days.

Winds will gradually veer to a more easterly flow through Sunday,
increasing to 15-20 knots tonight and into by Sunday. Seas may
increase to 3-6 feet over the local Atlantic waters. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will continue through early next week, with
rough seas and locally gusty winds with any thunderstorm that
forms.

There continues to remain considerable uncertainty for winds and
seas late this weekend and into early next week as a tropical wave
near the southern Bahamas moves closer to the area. Please
consult the products of the National Hurricane Center and our
latest forecasts for additional information.

AVIATION...
Easterly winds have increase this afternoon with gusts up to 20
knots across the Atlantic terminals. The winds will continue
with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the
proximity of the terminals producing brief periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall with gusty winds and occasional lightning. The
potential for additional development over the terminals continues
through the day as the convection moves from east to west. Near
APF terminal, showers and storms are starting to develop and
should begin to impact the terminal in the next hour. Winds
decouple early this evening with brief showers possible near the
sites but at this time, confidence is low to included to the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  90  78  88 /  40  70  70  80
Fort Lauderdale  81  89  78  88 /  50  80  70  80
Miami            79  89  78  87 /  50  80  70  70
Naples           78  92  76  90 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...54/BNB



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