Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016


Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all South
Florida terminals during the early morning hours. However,
terminal KAPF could experience occasional passing showers early
this morning, with an isolated thunderstorm possible with very
brief periods of MVFR conditions possible. By mid-morning light
southwesterly winds are forecast across the region, with the Gulf
and Atlantic coast sea breezes expected to form around 16-18z. All
terminals assigned VCTS at 17-18z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 810 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016/

With most of the convection subsiding across South Florida, have
removed it from the TAFs. However, a brief shower may still be
possible for the next couple of hour, particularly for FXE, PBI,
and FLL. Otherwise, VFR through tomorrow morning, when another
round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
sometime around the middle of the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016/

At 7 pm edt radar data was showing some thunderstorms moving east and
into the coastal waters off Boynton Beach and Pompano Beach. The
rest of South Florida looked fairly clear, except for small
clusters of showers moving across interior areas. A few outflow
boundaries still linger over central Miami-dade county, but no
significant convection has been observed associated with it.

A few additional storms are possible through the rest of this
evening, but the overall weather pattern should trend toward a
quieter night with most convection developing over the Atlantic
waters. Winds will gradually become light and variable with
periods of calm winds possible through Thursday morning.

Current forecast package looks on track and no significant changes
are required for the evening update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016/

Short term (Tonight through Friday)...a deep mid level low
located near the Great Lakes area is keeping an associated trough
axis extending south into the eastern-most Gulf waters and the
west coast of Florida. Meanwhile, weak ridging remains over the
western Atlantic at the lower levels. This synoptic setup is
keeping a generally southwest flow over South Florida, with
ongoing moisture advection from the south. However, latest
sounding data from MFL shows a decrease in PWAT values to below 2
inches, and a less stable airmass across the area compared to the
previous two days. Radar data showed early afternoon coverage of
showers basically limited to areas over the nw portions of South
Florida, and a few thunderstorms developing over the southern tip
of the peninsula. This convective activity is being primarily
driven by the west coast sea breeze pushing inland. A couple of
small storms affected Hollywood and Boca raton earlier this

Additional showers and storms are still expected to affect areas
around the east coast, but remaining mainly scattered. Once the
afternoon/early evening convection dissipates, most of the evening
showers should remain over the coastal waters, but a few storms
are still possible over land through midnight. Some periods of
patchy fog are also possible around the Lake area overnight. A
similar weather pattern is expected on Thursday and Friday, but
with slightly higher chances of rain Thursday afternoon as models
suggest the arrival of a moisture plume moving in from the west.
Also, winds will back to a more southerly flow on Friday, thus
allowing for higher chances of rain across much of South Florida.

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...models remain in
fair agreement in lifting the aforementioned trough axis out of
the region with high pressure building in its wake during the
upcoming weekend. Earlier model runs were depicting a cold front
boundary moving across the northern half of the Peninsula and
settling over Central Florida for the Friday night-Saturday
timeframe. But latest runs basically dissipate the boundary near
the Florida panhandle with no significant impacts to our local
weather. Stronger easterly flow is expected to establish across
the area along with warm and moist conditions through much of the
long term.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the progress of
Tropical Storm Matthew, located east of the Windward islands and
moving west towards the Caribbean. It is too early to tell if this
system will have any impacts on South Florida, but it is important
to remain well informed of its progress with the latest bulletins
from the National Hurricane Center and your National Weather
Service in Miami.

Wind and seas are expected to remain below highlight criteria
through the weekend. Only exception will be around thunderstorms,
which will create brief periods of gusty winds and rough seas. Stronger
east and northeast winds are expected early next week along with
at least slightly higher seas.

West Palm Beach  89  75  89  76 /  50  40  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  89  76  89  78 /  50  40  60  50
Miami            90  76  91  77 /  50  30  60  50
Naples           88  74  89  75 /  50  40  50  40




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