Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 200541
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain light and variable early this morning before
increasing from the east around 10 knots over the east coast taf
sites. KAPF taf site will become westerly late this morning into
this afternoon with speeds around 10 knots.

The weather should remain dry over most of the taf sites today, as
the shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the interior
areas. However, there could be some showers around the KPBI taf
sites early this morning, and around KAPF taf site this afternoon.
The ceiling and vis should remain in the VFR condition.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Strong sea breeze interactions and a slight increase in
atmospheric moisture has led to scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the peninsula. These slow moving, or even
stationary, storms have produced rather impressive accumulations
in some areas across the east coast metro region. Minor street
flooding was already reported this evening in Hialeah. In the
update, bumped up PoPs and coverage to reflect the ongoing
activity. The HRRR shows these showers maintaining over the next
several hours. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appeared on
track.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms along the east coast metro area should
begin to fade after sunset. Until then, have TS mentioned at most
of the TAF sites for the next couple of hours. Conditions are
forecast to improve tonight. Tomorrow should see another round of
convection, but uncertainty is too high to mention anything in the
TAFs ATTM. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period, with
the exception of brief IFR under heavy shra possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 436 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows scattered
diurnally driven fair weather cu dominating over most of the
peninsula. Enhanced lift along a weak boundary over Palm Beach
County was creating towering cu and a few showers in the northeast
portion of the CWA. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through this evening, but with 500 mb warmer than -6.0 C, not
anticipating any strong convection. Otherwise, rather benign
weather continues across south Florida. Maximum temperatures are
topping off in the upper 80s along the east coast metro region and
lower 90s for the interior. Relatively dry air continues to
advect in behind Hurricane Jose and will do so through the night.
Short range models, including the HRRR and WRF, show shower
activity diminishing overnight, with the loss of diurnal heating.

Wednesday through Sunday: As Hurricane Jose weakens over the next
several days, there will be less of an influence on our area. Mid
range models prog a large high pressure ridge to build over the
eastern CONUS in its wake. Thus, surface high pressure to the
north will maintain easterly flow over the Florida peninsula.
Various surges of moisture from the over Atlantic will help to
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be
greatest for interior during the afternoons, then transition to
the east coast metro at night. Maximum temperatures will be
around average for this time of year with upper 80s along the
coast and around 90 inland. Through the period, Hurricane Maria is
forecast to move northwest from Puerto Rico, then north of the
Turks and Caicos. Thus, no direct impacts from the Hurricane are
anticipated for our region.

While the track of Maria is expected to remain to our east, continue
to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next several days. In
the meantime, it is always a good idea to review hurricane plans and
to restock any items used during Hurricane Irma as we continue to
remain in the middle of hurricane season.

MARINE...
Long period swell from distant Hurricane Jose will
keep cautionary conditions over the waters off Palm Beach County
into midweek. Conditions will briefly improve late week as Jose
moves farther from the area and high pressure builds back into
the region with increasing east-northeast flow.

BEACH FORECAST...
Long period northeasterly swell from the distant Hurricane Jose
will continue to filter through the local Atlantic waters. A high
risk of rip currents will continue for all the Atlantic beaches
this evening, and likely remain moderate to high into late week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  89  78  89 /  30  40  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  79  88 /  20  30  30  50
Miami            77  91  78  89 /  10  30  30  50
Naples           75  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...27/JT


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