Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 300553
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  76  90  76 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  90  78 /  60  40  60  30
MIAMI            91  78  90  77 /  60  40  60  30
NAPLES           89  78  89  78 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.