Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  73  86 /   0  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  10
MIAMI            71  84  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD


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