Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across our
NW sections and close to DHN. This line will continue to move east
with short term models showing a weakening trend later this
afternoon. DHN/ABY and perhaps ECP will be impacted by this line.
Otherwise, low VFR conds are expected for the rest of the day and
tonight. Overnight, some MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible across
areas that receive rainfall this afternoon with improvement back
to VFR by Sunday late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1007 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weak frontal boundary will approach the area today with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of it over the
northwest portions of the area. An area of 2 inch or greater PWATs
is located west of us and also moving eastward with this front, so
some locally heavy downpours are also likely as deep layer moisture
increases through the day. For the southeast portions of the area,
forcing for convection will be weaker, and only isolated convection
is expected. High temperatures are expected to be held down a bit
across the northwest area with upper 80s expected. Elsewhere, lower
90s are expected with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100
this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

In the upper levels the trough over the central US will slowly
deepen as it translates east through the period. At the surface,
the cold front that currently stretches from Ohio to Texas will
stall just north of our area Sunday before pushing through early
in the week. PoPs will be 30-50% on Sunday and will decrease on
Monday behind the front. Highs will be in the upper 80s with lows
in the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The front will push through by the start of the long term period.
By mid week high pressure off of the Carolinas will result in
southeasterly flow which will bring an increase in moisture from
the Gulf. PoPs will be 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday and will
increase to 30-50% for the end of the week. Highs will be in the
upper 80s with lows near 70.


.MARINE...

Conditions have returned to more seasonal values with
winds 15 knots or less and seas generally 1 to feet. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible through much of the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

We received some much needed round of rainfall courtesy of Cindy
earlier this week. As a result, rises continue along the
Choctawhatchee and Pea river basins. There are no more points in
flood stage at this time, though several remain in or will rise to
action stage. Rainfall from a frontal passage this weekend is
expected to remain around an inch or less, which should not cause
widespread flooding, but may mean a slower lowering of elevated
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  70  85  67 /  10  40  30  20  20
Panama City   75  85  72  84  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Dothan        72  87  67  85  66 /  40  50  20  10  10
Albany        72  88  68  85  66 /  30  40  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  90  70  85  67 /  20  40  30  20  20
Cross City    72  90  71  87  70 /  10  30  10  40  30
Apalachicola  74  86  72  84  71 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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