Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 310133
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
With a deep layer ridge in place regionally, this afternoons
convection appeared to have no synoptic connection. Instead,
convection across north Florida was primarily seabreeze driven as
evidenced by the visible imagery. Across Georgia and Alabama,
shallow convection appeared to be forced along weak differential
heating boundaries on the edge of more efficiently mixed areas.
After a few hours, boundary interactions took over and any ongoing
convection across south Georgia is beginning to thin out and
weaken. There is a possibility of a few storms moving in along the
east coast seabreeze outflow in our southeast Big Bend counties.
Overall, a weakening trend is expected over the next few hours.
Expect lows in the lower 70s inland, and middle 70s near the
[Through 00Z Monday]...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue this evening, mainly in South
GA and North FL around KABY and KVLD. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely until around dawn. Persistence and statistical guidance
suggest IFR vis and/or cigs are possible at most terminals around
dawn, while the latest ensemble of high-res NWP, SREF, and HRRR
forecast MVFR/VFR conditions. We leaned more toward the more
optimistic guidance in this forecast package, but we can revisit
this on the 06z package. Generally VFR conditions are expected
Sunday by mid to late morning, but scattered TSRA will develop in
the afternoon. The highest PoP is at KTLH, KECP, and KVLD.
.Prev Discussion [352 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Ridging will slowly build over the region through the short term
period. With light south to southeasterly flow at the surface for
the next couple of days, expect storms to largely be driven by the
daily sea breeze circulation. Storm coverage may be less on Monday
as the ridge becomes more established across the region. With a
building ridge, and more scattered storm coverage, expect
temperatures to gradually warm into the mid 90s each afternoon and
lows in the low to mid 70s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the
Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early
in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the
lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will
near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to
the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of
the period, rain chances will be on the increase.
Temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be a
couple of degrees above climatology through Thursday and then
near normal late in the period due to increased convective
High pressure just east of the marine area will keep south to
southeasterly winds 10 knots or less through the next several
days. Lingering southerly swell will keep seas west of
Apalachicola near 3 feet at times into Monday.
Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for
the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the
River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 96 74 96 74 / 30 40 20 30 10
Panama City 78 92 75 92 77 / 20 20 10 20 10
Dothan 72 96 74 96 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
Albany 73 97 73 97 74 / 40 30 20 20 10
Valdosta 72 95 72 96 71 / 60 40 20 40 20
Cross City 72 94 73 95 72 / 40 50 20 30 20
Apalachicola 78 90 78 91 77 / 20 20 10 20 10