Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201850
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
250 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging will maintain rain-free conditions over the
area through tonight. Look for lows in the upper 50s north to the
mid 60s at the coast. Smoke from a prescribed burn south of the
TLH airport will result in some smoke mainly across the national
forest.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Easterly flow will continue over the region through Saturday with
mild and dry weather expected. By Sunday, the flow will become
southerly as a deep trough and cold front approach from the west.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible by
Sunday afternoon over the western zones, spreading eastward Sunday
night.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
The widespread rain will end from west to east late on
Monday with the frontal passage. The front will usher in the
coolest airmass of the fall. By Wednesday, highs are not expected
to get out of the 60s for most locations. Lows in the 40s are
expected to be widespread by Thursday morning.

With modest deep-layer shear (30-40kt) and instability (500-1000
j/kg), a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out on
Monday. Isolated tornadoes and a few damaging wind gusts appear to
be the primary threat, with the highest risk in the morning over
the western portion of the area, and in the afternoon over the
eastern portion. Extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates appear
to be the main limiting factors for a more robust threat.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. Some MVFR cigs
and vsby will develop in the predawn hours across our Georgia
terminals. MVFR vsby could extend into AL as well.

There is a vigorous smoke plume evident on satellite (and out our
window) just south of TLH. The plume extends to about 2500 feet.
Prevailing ENE surface and transport winds should keep any vsby
restrictions away from the airport proper.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain at Exercise Caution levels through the
weekend as easterly flow continues. On Monday, winds will become
southerly and likely increase to Small Craft Advisory levels ahead
of an approaching cold front. Northwest flow will move in behind
the front late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Other than high dispersion values over portions of the Florida Big
Bend the next few days, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend. Widespread rain will
occur late Sunday through Monday night as a cold front move through
the area. Storm total QPF is generally 1 to 2 inches, but locally
higher amounts are possible. This is unlikely to cause widespread
flooding or have a major impact on river stages.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  86  67  86  73 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   67  84  69  84  73 /   0   0   0  40  80
Dothan        59  84  64  85  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
Albany        58  85  64  85  70 /   0   0   0  20  50
Valdosta      62  84  65  85  70 /   0   0  10  30  40
Cross City    64  86  67  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  30
Apalachicola  68  83  71  83  74 /   0   0   0  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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