Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281923
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along and ahead of a cold that entering our western zones as of 18z.
PoPs through earl this evening will be highest (40-60%) along and
east of the river. After sunset, convection will mainly be confined
to the Big Bend (20-40%). In the wake of the front, dew points are
expected to drop into the upper 50s for our our far west and
northwest zones. Min Temps will range from the lower 60s northwest
to the lower 70s southeast and along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A large cutoff low will remain essentially stationary over the
Ohio Valley through Friday night. At the surface, high pressure
will nose into the Tri-State region pushing through a dry cold
front by Thursday night that will reinforce the dry airmass.
Afternoon highs on Thursday are expected to be near normal as the
core of the upper-level cool air remains west of us. Thursday
night, winds will likely remain elevated in the immediate wake of
the front keeping temperatures in the upper 50s across southeast
Alabama, up to the upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend. Friday
is expected to be quite pleasant with clear skies and highs in the
low to middle 80s. Friday night will be the coolest night as the
dry air is well established and winds will be lighter. Expect lows
in the upper 50s in most locations away from the coast and the
southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The cooler, drier conditions associated with the frontal system are
expected to be short-lived. Model guidance shows that then upper
level support for this system will stall over the Ohio Valley during
the weekend and will retreat to the north-northeast in the early
parts of next week. As a result, the frontal system will stall
just to the east of our area during the weekend and will then
lift northward early next week. While the northwestern portion of
our area is expected to remain dry through the period, moisture
will return to the southern portion of the region early next week,
leading to PoPs of 30-40% in the FL Big Bend and south central GA
during the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will
be in the upper 80s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Convection developing ahead of a cold front this afternoon may
briefly impact the terminals for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front but will
remain light. VFR conds will prevail outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...

West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots will prevail through Thursday
night, with a brief uptick to Cautionary levels possible on
Thursday night. Thereafter, northerly winds 5 to 10 knots will
prevail for a few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the area tonight and Thursday with
a second front crossing the region Thursday night. These fronts
will bring much drier air to the region from Thursday evening into
the weekend. Other than high dispersion rates Thursday afternoon
across much of the area, there are no fire weather concerns as
minimum RH values will remain above critical values even in the
drier airmass behind the fronts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding of any type is not expected over the next several days.
Scattered storms will return to the forecast after the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  90  63  84  58 /  20  20   0   0   0
Panama City   71  86  66  80  64 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        62  86  57  80  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  88  58  81  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  89  62  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0
Cross City    72  88  68  85  63 /  40  50  10  10  10
Apalachicola  73  87  68  82  65 /  20  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...King/Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan


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