Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 220953
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
553 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [342 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL SUPPRESS ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 80S
CONFINED TO THE FL BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTH GA. ALL
IN ALL, A VERY NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
KEEP US IN AN AREA OF EASTERLY WINDS. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

TO START THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE,
FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS
WILL IN THE LOWER 70S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, RH WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE AROUND 75 ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
BIG BEND TODAY AND ABOVE 75 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH AREA RIVERS AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND  NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  66  90  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY   83  71  84  73  85 /  10   0  10  10  20
DOTHAN        83  62  88  67  89 /   0   0  10  10  20
ALBANY        84  60  89  66  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  61  88  64  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    89  66  92  66  90 /   0   0  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  86  72  86  75  85 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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