Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 171731
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the
period across our area. Brief exceptions could occur at ECP and
possibly TLH late this afternoon into the early evening, when
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. Any remaining
showers/storms should dissipate by sunset, with VFR conditions
expected overnight through Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1013 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

With west-northwesterly flow prevailing across our area today,
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms should once again be
confined to our northern FL locations with the sea breeze pinned
near the coast. Adjusted PoPs accordingly, showing 40-60% across
northern FL and generally 20-30% across most of SE Alabama and SW
Georgia. Highs will range from the lower-mid 90s inland, and upper
80s along the coast. High humidity combined with this heat will
result in maximum heat index values reaching the mid-100s across
much of our area; be sure to limit physical exertion outdoors this
afternoon and early evening.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Upper ridge centered across the northern Gulf will slide westward
in response to a shortwave trough moving across the eastern third
of the US and an inverted mid/upper trough moves westward into the
eastern Gulf by late Saturday. A weak front, supported by the
shortwave trough, will move into the southeast and stall across
the area Saturday. Focus for showers and storms will be the
typical seabreeze each day and the front. The inverted trough will
also add some mid level support for shower/storm development
Saturday. Some mid level dry air noted in area forecast soundings
may help to drive strong winds in heavier storms each afternoon
but are not expecting widespread severe weather. Temperatures
will remain in the lower 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows. Heat
indices will be in the low 100s each afternoon.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The aforementioned front hangs around the area through Sunday
night then lifts northward Monday as western Atlantic high
pressure builds over the southeast US. Chances for showers and
storms each day will remain around typical summer norms and will
be driven by the seabreeze. Temperatures will remain seasonal with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the middle 70s.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will continue through the
weekend. Expect showers and storms in the overnight and early
morning hours each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and storms are expected each day. Although minor flooding
could occur in urban and poor drainage areas, widespread flooding
is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  93  75  91  75 /  10  60  20  40  30
Panama City   79  90  78  89  79 /  10  40  30  40  30
Dothan        75  93  75  91  75 /  10  50  30  40  20
Albany        76  94  75  92  75 /  10  50  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  74  91  74 /  10  50  30  40  30
Cross City    76  90  75  91  75 /  20  60  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  91  78  88  77 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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