Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
359 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will move east as a short wave translates from
the central Plains to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys with the southward
extending trough just to our west by this evening. The associated
surface cold front will remain well to the west of the local region.
However, increasing instability along with warm temperatures and
increasing gulf moisture will be sufficient to generate isolated
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and north of
I-10. Temps will be in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to around 80
along coastal areas.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned upper-level short wave trough will continue
translating east-northeastward tonight and Tuesday over the
eastern CONUS. a ridge will build in its wake over much of the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. With minimal large scale forcing and
unimpressive amounts of deep-layer moisture, PoPs will be 20% or
less. High and low temperatures will generally be 5 to 10 degrees
above average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The large scale upper-tropospheric winds will be characterized by
a split-flow pattern over the CONUS, with the polar jet across
the northern tier of states and the southern stream across Mexico
and the FL Peninsula. A more active southern stream could help
benefit portions of our forecast area with better chances of
needed rain.

An upper-level cutoff low will lift slowly northeastward across
the Ohio Valley late in the week. The associated surface cold
front will move southeastward through our forecast area on Friday,
preceded by a good chance of rain (though PoPs will diminish from
west to east as the strongest ascent shifts north with time). The
GFS and CMC solutions suggest there will be enough vertical wind
shear and ascent for at least some storm organization (including
rotating updrafts) late Thursday night or early Friday, though
forecast MLCAPE values are below 500 J/kg and there may be
significant CIN. The ECMWF upper level winds are less impressive,
suggesting less of a threat of severe storms.

Fair weather will return to our region next weekend as a deep-layer
ridge develops over the Southeast. Rain chances will begin to
increase west to east at the beginning of next week. The airmass
behind Friday`s cold front is unlikely to be significantly cooler
than the warm airmass it replaces, so we expect highs in the lower
to mid 80s, and lows in the mid 50s next weekend (as opposed to
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s Thursday).


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

As expected, fog and low level cloudiness is developing across
coastal and western portions of our region. IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected at all sites except VLD by daybreak. VFR will return to all
terminals between 14-15z. Winds will be southerly between 10 and 15
kts today. There is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or TSTM
at DHN, ABY and VLD but the chance is too low to include in TAFs.



With a high pressure ridge across the coastal waters, low winds and
seas are likely through Wednesday. South winds and seas will
increase Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold



Aside from high dispersion today and dry conditions, there are no
other fire weather concerns.



Isolated showers or thunderstorms through mid week will have no
significant impact on the local river systems, which were well
below flood stage. Our current QPF for the cold front moving
through our forecast area late Thursday and early Friday ranges
from half an inch around Dothan and Destin to less than a tenth of
an inch around Valdosta and Cross City. However, ensemble output
from the GFS indicates that these forecast values may increase
with time, mainly from Tallahassee north and westward.



Tallahassee   85  59  83  58  86 /  10  10  10  10   0
Panama City   78  64  75  62  77 /  10  10  10  10   0
Dothan        84  62  82  61  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
Albany        85  61  83  61  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      85  59  84  59  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
Cross City    85  57  82  56  85 /  10   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  76  62  76  60  77 /  10  10  10  10   0






SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
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