Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 030944
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
544 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...
Areas of fog have developed with MVFR/IFR cigs/Vis impacting most
TAF sites. LIFR conditions were occurring at ECP. Cigs/Vis will
gradually improve shortly after daybreak. Numerous TSRA will
develop by afternoon as a cold front moves slowly southeast across
the region. Rain should end across all but VLD by the end of the
.PREV DISCUSSION [340 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A shortwave will drop southward from the central Plains further
amplifying the trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the
cold front currently cutting NE to SW across Alabama will get nudged
southeastward to a position from near Augusta SW to Panama City by
00z Wed. A band of convection will precede the front along with
isolated storms developing ahead of it mainly along a weak sea
breeze. Some of the storms may be strong to briefly severe and SPC
continues to highlight our entire CWA for a marginal severe risk.
Although deep layer shear will be increasing throughout the day
ahead of the amplifying upper trough, the limiting factor for
organized severe storms will be marginal instability due to
extensive cloud cover. Still, a few storms may be strong to briefly
severe with gusty to damaging winds and small hail. Highs will be
just a bit cooler than previous days ranging form near 80 northwest
zones to lower and mid 80s elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
At the start of the short term period, the cold front will be
slowly moving through the forecast area with scattered storms
expected overnight, mainly along and southeast of a line from
Apalachicola to Valdosta. As the overall Eastern CONUS trough
amplifies and shifts eastward across the Mid South, this will
start the process of shifting the deep layer moisture further
south and east away from the region, with the surface cold front
passing through the forecast area shortly after daybreak on
As a deep upper low settles across the Southern Appalachians on
Thursday, expect dry and cool conditions across the region.
Temperatures are expected to drop to around 10 degrees below
climatology for early May, so highs only in the mid 70s are
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The cool snap will continue through Friday night as the upper low
remains over Eastern South Carolina. By Saturday, this system will
get picked up by the northern stream and move out into the Western
Atlantic. Ridging aloft will build in its place across the South,
allowing for a steady warming trend through the weekend. Dry
weather will continue through the end of the long term period.
High temperatures by Sunday and beyond will warm back into the
upper 80s to near 90.
Southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front will shift to offshore
on Wednesday and increase to cautionary levels through Thursday
night. Light winds and low seas are expected to return by Friday
and continue into the weekend.
High dispersion values are forecast for Wednesday due to stronger
winds and deep mixing. Also, afternoon relative humidity values may
drop below critical levels over some inland areas Thursday and
Friday. However, red flag conditions are not expected at this time.
Hi-res guidance suggests widespread 1-1.5 inches of rain across
South Alabama and Georgia will be quite common today, with
locally heavier totals with the stronger storms. Overall, this
shouldn`t present a flood risk outside of any heavy downpours in
urban areas. Dry conditions return on Wednesday and continue for
the next several days. Thus, there are no river flood concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 66 81 57 78 / 70 40 10 0 0
Panama City 79 67 78 63 75 / 80 30 10 0 0
Dothan 80 60 77 56 73 / 80 30 0 0 0
Albany 82 62 78 56 73 / 80 40 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 65 80 56 76 / 70 40 10 0 0
Cross City 86 68 82 59 80 / 30 60 30 0 0
Apalachicola 79 68 79 63 77 / 70 30 10 0 0