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FXUS62 KTAE 281051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

IFR to LIFR conditions continue at all sites with the exception of
ECP at this hour. Expect conditions to slowly improve over the
next several hours, with VFR conditions expected to resume between
14 and 15Z this morning. Southerly winds AOB 10 kts expected to
prevail through this evening.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Foggy conditions will linger across the Tri-state region through
much of this morning, with isolated areas of visibility
restrictions periodically dropping to a few miles. Use caution on
your morning commute! Expect fog and low clouds to gradually
clear during the mid to late morning hours. Deep layer ridging
will build back into the region during the day, yielding some of
the warmest temperatures of the season thus far. Expect afternoon
highs to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s - particularly in areas
where cloud cover will be able to clear by late morning.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Deep southerly flow is expected through Sunday as a strong upper
level trough digs west of the area with upper level ridging off
the southeast coast. This will allow for above average
temperatures to continue with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 away
from the coast and lows in the mid 60s to near 70. Forcing for
convection is expected to remain weak, however, with dry
conditions expected. By Sunday, the upper trough begins to lift
northeastward, taking on a negative tilt across the MS Valley. The
associated cold front is expected to be far enough west to keep
rain chances at bay until the overnight hours. Persistent
southerly winds along the coast may increase enough to create high
surf along portions of the panhandle coast on Sunday, including
Walton and Bay counties.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

As the negatively tilted upper level trough lifts northeastward
into the Ohio Valley on Sunday night into Monday, a fairly strong
cold front will move through the area. The key question for
severe weather potential will be how strong the low level jet will
be across our area as the front moves through. The 00z GFS has a
stronger low level jet than the 00z ECMWF across our area. With
the strongest dynamics lifting northward, the squall line will
likely be gradually weakening as it approaches the area, but some
severe weather cannot be ruled out, mainly across the western half
of the area Sunday night or Monday.

Once that front clears the area later on Monday, another trough is
expected to affect the region sometime between Wednesday and
Friday with an additional round of showers and thunderstorms. A
severe weather risk cannot be completely discounted with this
system either.


Southerly winds will continue through the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front. The worst conditions are expected on
Sunday with winds over 20 knots expected and seas of 7 to 9 feet
west of Apalachicola. Conditions will improve by Tuesday into
Wednesday, but another system is expected to bring another
increase in winds and seas around Thursday.


RHs will remain above critical thresholds through the weekend,
precluding any red flag conditions. Elevated transport winds and
sufficient mixing heights will yield high dispersions across
portions of the region this afternoon, and potentially Saturday


There are a couple of chances of some needed rainfall coming up
over the next week. The first is expected on Sunday night into
Monday with totals of 0.50-1.00" with locally higher amounts
generally west of a Tallahassee to Albany line. East of there, up
to 0.50" is expected. After that, another system is likely
sometime between Wednesday and Friday with some heavier totals
possible. Overall, the risk of flooding is low given the recent
dry conditions and relatively low river levels.



Tallahassee   89  67  88  68  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   85  72  81  72  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        88  68  89  69  87 /  10   0  10   0  10
Albany        90  69  91  70  89 /   0   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      92  67  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
Cross City    92  67  91  66  89 /   0  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  86  70  82  71  81 /   0  10  10  10  10



FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South




NEAR TERM...Pullin
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