Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181127
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
627 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Conditions range from VLIFR to MVFR at the TAF sites this morning
with the potential for the MVFR sites to drop lower over the next
few hours. Even at the VLIFR to IFR sites, some variability in
cigs and vsbys is expected this morning. Conditions will improve
mid to late morning with additional low clouds/fog expected Monday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low stratus and fog is in place across much of the CWA this
morning. While visibilities have been slow to lower across the
initial dense fog advisory area (Big Bend), they are lower across
the Florida Panhandle and parts of southeast Alabama and thus
have expanded the advisory. A cold front stretched across central
AL/GA this morning will sink briefly south this morning before
lifting back north as a warm front. Given this, the warm, moist
air mass remaining in place across the CWA today. A few showers
are possible with the better chances across the northern zones
this afternoon, but overall chances are low (20 percent or less).
High temperatures will continue to be well above average with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. TLH will be
close to the record high of 83 that was set in 1956.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The upper level pattern will begin to amplify tonight as a +PV
anomaly digs into the southwestern CONUS. Southerly flow will
increase over a deep layer, over our already quite humid area. A
cold front will develop to our west, but as the +PV anomaly lifts
northeastward toward the Great Lakes Tuesday, the front will stall.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday afternoon ahead of the stalling front, with the highest
chances in southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs in the
low 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Although the front will gain a little bit of eastward momentum mid-
week, it is expected to decay Thursday night before crossing our
area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible through Wednesday night, then will lower as the front
starts to decay. Highs will be in the low 80s through the week and
lows will be in the low to mid 60s.


.MARINE...

Areas of dense fog are expected once again today through at least
the early afternoon. Winds will be 15 knots or less until Tuesday,
when a frontal system will begin to approach from the west. The
front will stall out before it reaches us, keeping southeast winds
through the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

With RH values well above critical thresholds, red flag warning
conditions are not expected the next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will continue to gradually fall
through minor flood stage this week, but all of our other river
points remain below flood stage at this time. Rainfall
accumulations this week are likely to total less than a half inch.
No flooding is expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  59  79  61  80 /  10   0   0   0  20
Panama City   77  60  75  62  76 /  10  10   0   0  20
Dothan        77  62  79  62  81 /  10  10   0   0  30
Albany        78  59  79  60  82 /  20  10   0   0  20
Valdosta      81  58  81  61  83 /  10  10   0   0  20
Cross City    82  60  82  64  83 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  76  59  72  61  74 /  10  10  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen


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