Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 232330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
730 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
[Through 00z Tuesday] VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and
light winds are expected through the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION [310 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Upper level flow from the northwest becomes more west northwest as
the upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico slowly slides
eastward through tonight. Meanwhile high pressure continues to
dominate at the surface. The CWA remains dry and thus temperatures
are the main focus of the near term. At most places, expect to be a
few degrees warmer for low temperatures tomorrow morning as compared
to this morning with lows in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s
to lower 50s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A powerful upper level trough will move eastward off the Atlantic
coast to our northeast during this period, while weak upper level
dynamics will prevail over our area. High pressure will dominate,
with a large surface high stretching from eastern Canada through the
southeastern CONUS through midweek. As a result of this setup along
with very dry air over our region, no rainfall is expected
throughout this period. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80s on
Monday, warming slightly to the mid 80s on Tuesday. Under clear
skies, lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s will prevail inland Monday
night, with mid 50s to near 60 possible along the coast and in
`urban heat island` areas. Temperatures will be several degrees
warmer Tuesday night with a slight increase in high clouds possible,
with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A dry pattern will continue through most of this period across our
area, with high pressure generally prevailing at the surface through
late week and the weekend. The only chance of precipitation appears
to be on Thursday, mainly offshore with a slight chance of showers
over the FL Panhandle. Moisture will increase ahead of an upper
level trough moving into our area, with PWAT values possibly
increasing to around 1.5" along the Panhandle coast. Warm days and
cool nights will prevail each day; highs will be in the low-mid 80s
and lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Northeasterly winds around 10 knots will persist through Monday
night...resulting in seas of 2 feet or less. Easterly winds from
10 to 20 knots are expected through the remainder of the week...with
seas generally ranging from 2 to 4 feet. Seas up to 5 feet are
possible Wednesday and Thursday...with isolated 6 foot waves
possible well offshore.
Very dry air will remain in place through Monday with min RH values
in the low to mid 20s. Depending on the combination of ERC values
and durations of low RH, red flag conditions may be possible on
Monday afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle. Both the
ERC values and durations look borderline at this time. If red flag
conditions do occur, then the most likely counties would be across
Washington and inland portions of Walton and Bay counties. After
Monday, the min RH values are forecast to gradually rise, making red
flag conditions less likely.
No significant rainfall is expected for the next several days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 43 81 51 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 52 79 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 46 82 50 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 44 82 50 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 44 80 50 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 44 79 49 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 52 78 58 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 0