Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 121420
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...

Besides some tweaks to fit hourly temperature trends for the next
few hours, no changes were made to the forecast for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [648 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A dry cold front will rapidly move through the local area from
northwest to southeast this morning and early afternoon. Only a
scattering of clouds will accompany the front and winds will become
breezy from the northeast in it`s wake. Despite the passage of the
front, max temps are expected to reach the 60s for all but the far
northwest zones (upper 50s) and the far southeast zones (lower 70s).


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure will begin to build in tonight behind a dry
cold front that moves through today. The surface high will weaken
Wednesday night into Thursday as a surface low tracks across the
Ohio Valley. With the flow becoming more southerly on Thursday and
moisture increasing, an isolated shower will be possible across
the marine area and parts of Dixie county, but otherwise, the
short term will remain dry. Lows will drop to the lower 30s again
Wednesday morning behind the front with the mid 30s Thursday
morning. Highs in the mid 50s Wednesday will increase into the low
to upper 60s on Thursday as the flow becomes more southerly.

Note, while temperatures Wednesday morning will be below freezing
across the tri-state area (except for the extreme coastal
locations), a freeze watch/warning will not be issued. Those
products, in addition to frost advisories, have been suspended
until March 15th as a widespread freeze has occurred this season.
Hard freeze warnings (20 degrees or less) can still be issued
through the season.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The best chance for rain returns for the beginning of the long
term as an upper level trough sweeps across the southeast and a
front is stretched across the Florida peninsula. This will result
in chance PoPs for Friday. High pressure will build in behind this
for the weekend with rain possible again early next week as a
front pushes across the southeast.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

A brief period of IFR at TLH until 13 or 14z. Otherwise, VFR
throughout the period. A cold front will push through the region
from northwest to southeast later this morning and early
afternoon. The atmosphere is too dry to support rain but we will
see scattered clouds. Breezy northwest winds sustained near 15 KT
occasionally gusting to 25 KTs will follow the frontal passage.


.MARINE...

A dry cold front will move through the marine area
today with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing to spread
eastward across the marine zones this morning. These elevated
winds and seas will continue into tonight before weakening late
tonight into Wednesday. Winds will increase again to small craft
exercise caution to low end Small Craft Advisory conditions Friday
into Friday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion values this afternoon, there are no other
fire weather concerns at least for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain chances return to the area late in the week, but based on the
current forecasted rainfall amounts, there are no flooding
concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  31  56  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  37  57  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        58  30  54  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  31  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  31  53  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    69  31  56  36  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  66  36  56  43  68 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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