Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE
WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SITUATION OVER OR
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...STILL ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE SUGGESTS AN EVENING SEA-BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
LIKELY POP NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... MID TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WARM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S...HIGHEST TEMPS INLAND. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 90S IF
CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING THAT HIGH. SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED SO POPS IN THE 40/50 RANGE SHOULD
SUFFICE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE HEAT
INDICIES WILL RUN IN THE 100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
4TH SO ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID ANY HEAT-RELATED CONDITIONS.

AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AFTN POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40/50 RANGE.

MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED-THU) WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT WONT BITE OFF ON THIS TOO
MUCH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS SO OVERALL POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED EAST OF KTPA/KPIE...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THESE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLAL/KSRQ...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS DIMINISH BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  20  40  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  70  60  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  94 /  60  60  40  50
SRQ  77  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  72  94  72  94 /  20  30  30  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA/GUSACK
MCKAUGHAN...LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT


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