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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261147
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the upper level
low near the Florida Panhandle is starting to dip southeast into
the eastern Gulf today, while the Florida Peninsula remains under
a fairly moist airmass. A few thunderstorms are continuing to
linger over the Gulf of Mexico, but similar to this weekend,
convection is expected to begin to develop over the Florida
Peninsula early this afternoon and will gradually increase in
coverage through early evening under weak steering flow.

The forecast looks on track, with no significant changes needed
for the morning update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop across the area early this morning and
increase in coverage through the late afternoon and early evening.
Slow storm motion could lead to longer durations of IFR conditions
than are normally seen with summer thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will continue to hold north of the waters
through the next several days, with light and generally east winds
turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula each
afternoon and shift west into the Gulf during the early evening,
with a few storms lingering overnight. Outside of thunderstorm
activity, winds and seas will remain rather light through the
period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  75  89  76 /  40  20  30  20
FMY  90  73  89  75 /  50  30  50  20
GIF  92  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  20
SRQ  90  73  89  76 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  91  70  90  72 /  40  20  20  20
SPG  89  75  88  77 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis