Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 271928
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon
continues to show two areas of low pressure across the western and
central portions of the country. The northern and eastern
periphery of a ridge extends into the central Gulf of Mexico, with
a weak low centered over the Bahamas and Florida. At the surface,
a weak low continues to spin between Bermuda and the Bahamas, with
high pressure over the western Atlantic extending across the U.S.
east coast and over FLorida and into the Gulf. This overall setup
has led to a continuation of an easterly wind flow. So far, the
west coast sea breeze has just barely made it to the coast in a
few locations, but should extend its reach a bit more over the
next few hours.
Radar imagery over the past several hours has shown showers and
thunderstorms moving in the east flow over the eastern part of the
state, with not much reaching our forecast area just yet. Expect
activity to increase over the next couple of hours first across
our interior zones and then shifting westward as we move into this
evening. There should be some extra convergence with the west
coast sea breeze as well, which will help initiate some showers
and storms. Any leftover convection will then shift offshore for
the first part of tonight with a quiet overnight period expected.
For Saturday, both the upper and surface low will slowly drift
northwestward, but not expecting any impacts for our local area.
We will still have an easterly flow in place with a similar
situation to this afternoon, with a west coast sea breeze
struggling to make it much past the immediate coast. Rain chances
look fairly similar to today, as the highest moisture will remain
over mainly the southern half of the area.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)...
Weak surface high pressure will ridge across the area through
Sunday as weak low pressure moves NW toward the SE US coast with
an upper low in place across the state. Weak pressure will then be
in place across the area early next week as the area of low
pressure to the north weakens. Weak ridging will then build in
again for Wednesday through Friday. With the weak pressure in
place through much of the period, and moisture on the increase,
diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations will dominate the
weather for the local area through much of the period. This will
allow for scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
highs, and in the mid 60s to mid 70s for lows.
VFR conditions continue this afternoon. Still expecting
thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening, with
brief restrictions possible. Uncertainty remains as far as the
sea breeze reaching the terminals, but have left a wind shift in
for KPIE, KTPA, and KSRQ. A few locations right along the coast
have turned, so confidence is a bit higher that the aforementioned
terminals will indeed experience a wind shift.
With high pressure to the north, easterly winds will remain in
place for the next couple of days, but will become onshore in the
afternoon with the sea breeze. Wind speeds could approach exercise
caution criteria overnight into the early morning hours, but
should otherwise remain below headlines. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity can be expected during the late evening
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels over the next several days with no red flag concerns. No
significant fog is expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 73 90 73 89 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 71 90 72 90 / 30 50 30 40
GIF 71 92 71 91 / 10 20 10 40
SRQ 71 88 72 89 / 30 20 20 20
BKV 67 91 68 90 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 74 90 75 89 / 20 10 20 20
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard