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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION THROUGH SATURDAY BUT ITS REACH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...A
DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF.

THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE STATE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHERN WINDS ON
THE WEST COAST. HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE INCHED NORTHWESTWARD WITH
JUST A SMALL POCKET OF MID 60S LEFT IN CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL LIKELY FADE AWAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING THE WIND FLOW.

FOR TODAY...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY CURTAIL CONVECTION
SOME BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2 INCHES AND
SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER NOON. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH BUT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN DRIVER. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SUBTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE FOR SATURDAY BUT NOTHING THAT AFFECTS
THE OVERALL FORECAST. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG OR EAST OF I-75 FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...BUT
COULD BE HELD CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SOUTH DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE BEFORE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE...I WOULD SAY HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR FROM CENTRAL LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES NORTHWARD THROUGH
DESOTO...HARDEE...AND POLK COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ONE
THAT WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA AS PERSISTENT
EAST COAST TROUGHING CONTINUES TO HOLD THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE. DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH A LACK
OF ANY APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOW FORECAST BY THE MAIN
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AS OPPOSED TO 24 HOURS
AGO WHEN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS FORECAST. THE LIGHTER FLOW
WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BOTH EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND. THIS IS
NOT TO SAY THAT THE BEACHES WILL BE DRY...AS WOULD EXPECT EARLY
STORMS (MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON) TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE MAKES SOME PROGRESS INLAND...THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WHILE RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO THE THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY SET UP
FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY WHEN SOME SYNOPTIC HELP FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE WITHIN THE RRQ OF A 60-70 KNOT UPPER JET ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO DUE TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND RESULTING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WETTER
AND MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED ONCE AGAIN BY
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW OUR HEIGHTS INCREASING WITH TIME...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE (STRONGER RIDGE) OVER THE PAST 2-3
RUN CYCLES. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING CLOSER TO CLIMO OR EVEN BELOW CLIMO BY WED/THURS...ALONG
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF WAS TO VERIFY...THEN
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS PATTERN EVOLVE AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG FOR PGD AND LAL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LAL...PGD...FMY...AND
RSW. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN JUST VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOATING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  91  77 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  92  76  93  77 /  60  40  60  40
GIF  93  75  93  76 /  60  40  60  50
SRQ  91  75  91  76 /  30  10  40  30
BKV  93  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA