Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 020056
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF ERIKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE
LEVY COUNTY COAST LINE. MID LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO GA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH A STRONG H5
RIDGE OF AROUND 592 DAM QUICKLY SETTLING OVER THE STATE. DEEP
LAYER AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND 15Z BUT SHIFT
INLAND AFTER AROUND 21Z.


&&

.MARINE... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK GRADIENT WINDS WILL GIVE AWAY TO A GOOD PUSH
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  77  93  77  92 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  20  50  40  60
SRQ  77  90  78  90 /  20  30  10  30
BKV  74  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...20/BARRON


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