Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 261905
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
305 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Monday)...
A short wave trough moving across the region this afternoon will
exit to the east of the forecast area tonight as upper and surface
ridging rebuilds in over the region through Monday. A decent sea
breeze combined with the presence of the short wave and adequate low
level moisture may support some isolated showers along the sea
breeze boundary from Fort Myers north to the Tampa Bay area during
the late afternoon and early evening hours, otherwise warm and dry
conditions are expected through Monday as drier air moves into the
region in the wake of the short wave and subsidence increases under
the upper ridge.
Temperatures will run above normal through the period with lows
tonight falling to around 60 across the Nature Coast, and lower to
mid 60s central and south with daytime highs on Monday climbing into
the lower to mid 80s inland area, except upper 70s to around 80
along the coast due to the afternoon sea breeze.
.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Monday Night - Sunday)...
The parade of cutoff lows moving across the Desert Southwest then
east northeast and weakening and opening up as they move across the
central and eastern U.S. will continue. For our area these waves
will have little effect other than some maybe additional clouds for
most of the week as weak ridging persists across the area.
Therefore, the warm and mainly dry weather will continue through at
least Thursday. Late in the week a slightly stronger wave, at least
at this time according to the models, will move east and could bring
a few showers to the area Friday into Saturday. However, the trend
has been to weaken these systems and lift them further north as time
goes on so the prospect of seeing rain is not looking promising. For
now have continued the 20 to 30 PoPs across the Nature Coast Friday
and 20 PoPs for Friday night and Saturday across the northern and
central zones. Temperatures late week into the weekend will continue
above normal and could see readings approaching 90 over the
A few shra may impact KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW terminals
between 21-02Z and have depicted VCSH at these sites for
now, otherwise VFR is expected at all terminal sites during
the next 24 hours. East southeast winds in the 8 to 10 knot
range will become west to northwest after 20Z as the west
coast sea breeze develops, with a east southeast winds at 4
to 6 knots returning to all sites after 02Z tonight.
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic extending west
southwest across the north-central Florida peninsula will maintain
light east to southeast winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters
tonight through Thursday with a weak pressure pattern favoring an
onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each
afternoon. During Thursday night southeast to south winds may
increase toward cautionary levels as the gradient tightens some as a
cold front approaches from the west with the weakening front then
moving into the northeastern Gulf waters on Friday with winds
becoming southwest to west during the day.
Adequate low level moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels through Monday with no fire weather hazards
or concerns expected. During Tuesday through Thursday pockets
of humidity values below 35 percent will be possible over
inland locations each afternoon, however light winds and ERC
values just below 37 should preclude Red Flag conditions.
Some patchy fog may be possible over inland locations during
the late night and early morning hours the next few days, but
widespread coverage or visibility restrictions are not anticipated
at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 65 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 62 83 62 84 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 61 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 63 79 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 59 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 65 79 65 80 / 10 0 0 0
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close