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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280806
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
306 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE COOL DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LATEST FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TONIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE EAST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 NORTH
INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE THAT
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF FLORIDA...IT WILL ACT TO
LIFT THE FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
TREKKING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL DRAG A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5-2.0 INCHES. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL GET KNOCKED BACK DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 4 AM...BUT WILL REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
AS WIND AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FLOW VEERS
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT NO REAL INCREASE IN WINDS
OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC BRIDGING ACROSS IT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY BECOMING EASTERLY ON SATURDAY.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WITH
EAST WINDS VEERING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TOWARD CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND INCREASING
INTO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE (20 KNOTS) DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT 3 TO 5 HOURS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LOW HUMIDITY THOUGH LOW ERC VALUES AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS
VEERING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WILL ALLOW THE COOL DRY AIR MASS
TO SLOWLY MODIFY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  44  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  66  45  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  62  43  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  63  43  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  36  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  49  68  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING