Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA


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