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000
FXUS62 KTBW 071537
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1037 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
PENINSULA WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERCAST SKIES NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND ONGOING HEADLINES.

THE RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WILL
CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH NOON...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. AS A RESULT...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED HERE. DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AND MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS IS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  48  72  57 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  75  50  77  57 /  30   0   0   0
GIF  70  46  74  55 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  68  49  73  56 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  65  39  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  67  53  72  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
AVIATION...LEWIS