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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261729
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms have erupted early
today along and near a weak frontal boundary from Tampa Bay
northeast to Orlando. This activity will gradually work its
way eastward with additional storms developing along the
seabreeze along the southwest Florida coast through the
afternoon. With this evolution, most any terminal may see
visibility and ceiling limitations due to storms and will
maintain VCTS. Storms should move east of coastal terminals
by 21z to 22z but may linger over interior areas into this
evening. Visibilities less than 1/2 mile and gusty winds
will be common with any thunderstorms.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 954 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

MORNING UPDATE...
A weak remnant front extends across the northern Florida
peninsula this morning, and will eventually stall somewhere
near the I-4 corridor early this afternoon. This feature,
combined with afternoon seabreezes and abundant moisture,
will foster more widespread afternoon convection than we
have seen over the last few days. Showers and storms will
likely develop along the Gulf coast around noon, shifting
inland as winds become more southwesterly with time. Heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will accompany
any storms. Showers and storms will likely linger over
interior parts of the peninsula into tonight. Greater cloud
cover and an early seabreeze passage will also allow for
slightly less hot afternoon temperatures generally in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

The existing forecast is largely on track. Only minor
changes were made to the existing PoP forecast to reflect
more widespread showers/storms earlier along and just south
of the front.

AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
VFR conditions generally expected all terminals through
around 16z to 17z. Thereafter, scattered showers and storms
will develop first near the coast, then push inland by mid
to late afternoon. Will maintain VCTS in TAFs beginning
around 17z for coastal terminals, then 18z for inland
terminals. Gusty winds and heavy rains/low visibility
expected with any storm that develops. Mainly VFR conditions
will return by 02z Tues with light and variable winds.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the waters for much of the
week with light winds and seas. Winds will shift onshore
each afternoon near the coast as the seabreeze forms. The
only marine hazard will be locally enhanced winds and seas
in and around any marine thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  77  90  76 /  60  10  50  20
FMY  92  75  90  75 /  40  30  40  20
GIF  92  74  91  73 /  60  60  70  30
SRQ  87  77  86  75 /  40  10  40  10
BKV  89  72  90  72 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  89  78  90  77 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close
UPPER AIR...Shiveley/Warren