Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231401
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1001 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A CLEAR BOUNDARY
BETWEEN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/WESTERN
PANHANDLE AND MUCH MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. PWAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TLH AND TBW SOUNDING IS
JUST UNDER AN INCH SO NEEDLESS TO SAY THE PENINSULA WILL BE MUCH
WETTER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN JUST
OFF SHORE IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW...AS EVIDENT ON THE 12 TBW SOUNDING...IS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY STREAMING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ONCE AFTERNOON
HEATING GETS GOING EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS INLAND AND
SOUTH OF LEVY COUNTY. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS JUST
A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT HI RES GUIDANCE AND TRENDS OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY.


&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 14Z (17Z AT LAL).
THE MAJORITY OF STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING VCSH NEAR THE COAST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL STALL OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE TO AN EAST
NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THIS FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR NOW WILL
BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY MOIST PATTERN IN PLACE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SHIFT INLAND TOWARDS THE I 75 CORRIDOR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  72  87  74 /  50  40  60  50
FMY  88  73  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
GIF  87  72  88  73 /  60  30  60  30
SRQ  86  72  90  74 /  50  40  60  40
BKV  87  67  88  70 /  60  30  50  30
SPG  85  75  88  76 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA




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