National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TODAY SAW AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY COOLER
ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS MAINLY DRIVEN BY SECONDARY BOUNDARIES THAT
FORMED FROM EARLIER WEAKER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. STORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AT THE MOMENT BUT DO NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...LOCAL HI RES MODELS WERE AGAIN PICKING UP ON SOME EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION PUSHING TOWARDS THE COASTLINE AROUND SUN RISE.
BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY FOR THE LOWER HALF OF THE
CWA...BEGINNING AROUND 12Z.


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AND VCSH LINGERING NEAR LAL...PGD...RSW AND FMY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH A
GENERAL S/SW FLOW IN PLACE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. INCLUDED VCTS AND VCSH WORDING BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCLUDING LAL. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES BY
18Z.


&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR EACH MORNING...WHILE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND FROM
GULF BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
AGAIN FAVOR INLAND COUNTIES. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  79  92 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  77  91  78  94 /  30  30  20  30
GIF  77  90  76  96 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  77  88  79  91 /  30  30  20  20
BKV  74  90  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  82  87  82  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...20/BARRON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office