Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
940 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Little change in temperature is expected through the end of week
with dry weather and sunny skies. Breezy conditions will develop
this afternoon and again this weekend.

.UPDATE...Can`t get to the HRRR smoke forecast web site at this time
but not seeing any signs of smoke from fires in southwest San
Bernardino of western Riverside Counties. Therefore, I removed the
patchy smoke from the weather grids we had in southern San
Bernardino County. No other updates needed this morning. -Harrison-

325 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Breezy conditions are expected today as a shortwave trough swings
across the Great Basin, passing to our northeast. Higher gusts
will be possible across Mohave and western San Bernardino counties
this afternoon with speeds between 30-35 mph from the west to
southwest. Most other areas will see gusts remaining around 20-25
mph. Patchy smoke may be visible across southern San Bernardino
County today from an existing fire near Highland CA as it drifts
eastward. Winds are expected to be lighter Thursday and Friday as
high pressure builds down the West Coast behind the exiting
trough. Little change in temperature is expected through the end
of the work week as temps remain slightly above normal and dry
conditions persist.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

A dry pattern with little variation in high temperatures is the
latest indication by the forecast models through the weekend and
early next week, though there are some model differences that lead
to some uncertainty. A weak trough will drop into central and
southern California Saturday and Sunday which provides a dry
southwest flow over our region. The GFS keeps the trough more
defined and holds it over southern California through Tuesday then
slowly lifts it over Nevada and Utah by Wednesday. The ECMWF
retrogrades it off shore early next week which allows an area of
high pressure to build closer to the Four Corners than the GFS,
which keeps it centered more over New Mexico and the Texas
pan handle. The ECMWF solution results in the mid level flow turning
southeast to south across Arizona and southern Nevada Tuesday and
Wednesday. This would begin to open the door for moisture over
northern Mexico to begin heading our way. Confidence
is low in that scenario for now and will keep the mention of
thunderstorms out of the forecast for now, but it requires watching.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.


Critical fire weather conditions still look likely across Mohave
County, less the Colorado River Valley, this afternoon with dry
conditions, critical fuels, and southwest winds reaching 20-25 mph
gusting 30-35 mph. Therefore, no changes have been made to the
Red Flag Warning for today. Dry conditions and breezy winds will
be across much of the area this afternoon but winds should remain
below critical speeds except for western San Bernardino County
which could see gusts of 35 mph or greater but should not reach
the duration criteria. Dry conditions and lighter winds are
expected Thursday and Friday with breezy, south winds developing
this weekend. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal
through the weekend.


Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically
Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicate flows
continue to slowly decrease from their peak flows which occurred
last week. However, creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern
Sierra slopes of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will
continue flowing high and fast into the weekend. Minor flooding
could occur near creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some
roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around
barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks,
streams or rivers could experience areas of standing water.


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Wind trends will be similar to
Tuesday with light and variable winds in the morning and early
afternoon, with a possible light easterly component at times.
Southwest winds between 15 and 25 knots develop about 22Z and
persist much of the night. Sky clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...West/northwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected
across Inyo County and south central Nevada today. Southwest winds
10-20 knots and gusts 25-30 knots will develop by early to mid
afternoon across the rest of the region then gradually diminish
after midnight tonight. Sky clear.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating




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