Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KVEF 261117
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
317 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
COLDER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY COLDER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOW ELEVATION SNOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE COLD AIR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP SOME GUSTY NORTH
WINDS IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY...BUT STILL LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE
A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

BIGGER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF AREAS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
HOWEVER...MANY ZONES HAVE ALREADY REACHED FREEZING EARLIER IN THE
SEASON AND A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE FEW AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HIT FREEZING YET INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INCLUDING MORONGO VALLEY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BY SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE
ELECTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 524/525/526 IN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE RIVER ZONES OUT OF ANY FREEZE WARNINGS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO AREAS LIKE NEEDLES AND HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONE 527 SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR. MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ALSO SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
AREAS OF AZ03 AND NV17...WHICH INCLUDES KINGMAN AND PAHRUMP...ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING AND HAVE ISSUED A HARD FREEZE
WARNING FOR THOSE TWO ZONES SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD BRING A GREATER THREAT OF PIPE
DAMAGE. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A VERY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/UTAH
REGION BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE VARIATION OF
TRACKS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE.

THE LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
BROAD AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY THEN IT CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD MONDAY BEFORE
SPINNING UP INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY. THE TREND FROM RUNS 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN FOR THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INDICATE AN EVEN MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST
TRENDS SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION. THIS PLACES THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PULLING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS DEPICTS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO NEW YEARS DAY WITH A
DRYING TREND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP 15-20 POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA NEW YEARS DAY IN CASE
IT IS SLOWER MOVING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT
LOWS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 12-22KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8-10KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH 17Z THEN
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 8K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 7-8K FEET AFTER 17Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.