Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 162132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
232 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS....A weak area of low pressure over the western states
will provide a tranquil weather pattern and a slight warming
trend for most of our region through the weekend. The exception
will be the southern Sierra and central Nevada where limited
moisture will provide a slight chance of light showers or
thunderstorms. There next push of monsoonal moisture will be
possible into northwest Arizona and southern Nevada the beginning
of next week.

.SHORT TERM... Tonight through Friday night.

Not much of a change in the weather pattern is expected through
the end of the work week. A weak low off the CA coast will
continue to push dry air into the region on southwesterly flow.
The chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra
Mountains decreases through the rest of the week as we lose the
influence of that upper level shortwave and moisture continues to
decrease. Winds will remain light and clouds will mainly be over
the higher terrain. In general, low impact weather is expected
through at least Friday night.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

A series of shortwaves will develop across the SW Pacific coast
through the forecast period. By Saturday, a weak residual
shortwave will keep moisture mainly confined across northern
portions of our CWA primarily increasing cloud cover. With
continued instability and moisture along the eastern Sierra and
White Mountains through the forecast period, a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms exist every afternoon. By Sunday,
another shortwave will dig across the SW Pacific coast, though
models are not in full agreement on the exact location of this
shortwave creating large discrepancies. The talked about moisture
surge from the Gulf of California remains a player in the
forecast, but whether or not this shortwave helps or suppresses
its influence in our area is yet to be determined. The GFS is
indicating that the shortwave will hug the California coast line,
allowing for a bulk amount of moisture to seep into our CWA by
Monday. If this scenario plays out, most of our region would have
dense cloud cover, limiting the viewing of the solar eclipse on
Monday. The ECMWF keeps the shortwave draped over much of our
region, keeping the moisture limited to northwest Arizona and
minimal cloud cover over the region. With some considerable model
variations, decided to go with a slight chance of storms on the
Spring Mountains Sunday and Monday afternoons. Then as moisture
creeps further into our area by Monday, went with mostly slight
chances across Mohave County in the afternoon. By Tuesday, model
variance remains large, with low confidence on location of
moisture, decided to keep a slight chance of storms along the
Sierra and Spring Mountains.

Expect some breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon.
Temperatures will hover around seasonal normals dipping a bit Monday
and Tuesday with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies through the
forecast period.

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak trough of low pressure will hold over the
region much of the week producing a dry southwest flow aloft with
generally light winds. Limited mid level moisture associated with
the trough will lead to possible a few showers or a brief
thunderstorm over the southern Sierra each afternoon today into
the weekend.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds will be prevailing out of the
southeast through this evening with brief periods of variability as
winds become light at times. Typical nighttime shift to the
southwest is expected between 04z-06z. Winds will remain light, 10
knots or less, for the period becoming light and variable late
tonight through mid Thursday morning. Similar wind cycle is expected
for Thursday and Thursday night under mostly clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Typical, diurnal wind pattern is expected for the
period with winds remaining around 10 knots or less in most areas
under mostly clear skies. A few showers with an isolated rumble of
thunder will be possible over the southern Great Basin and higher
elevations of the Sierra through this evening and again across the
Sierra on Thursday afternoon with additional scattered mid and high
cloud cover possible in these areas.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


LONG TERM....Kryston

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