Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 252108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
208 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms will
dissipate tonight as area of low pressure moves east into Arizona.
Residual moisture and instability will lead to more chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern Great Basin
Thursday and Friday. April temperatures quickly warm to May and June
levels by the weekend as the more active weather pattern stays north
of the area. Hot, early summer like conditions are possible by the
middle of next week.

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night.

An upper low will be moving through southern California this evening
before shifting east over the Colorado River valley into western
Arizona tonight. So far, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have been confined to Inyo County and central Nye
County. This fits well with where the models show best broad-scale
ascent associated with deformation zone and surface-based CAPE. The
trend for the rest of the afternoon and evening is that coverage of
showers and thunderstorms should increase in the Morongo Basin,
northwest San Bernardino County and Spring Mountains. Did slightly
increase POPS across the higher terrain of southern Mohave County
tonight as the upper low passes over.

Models show a `baggy` trough residing over the area through the end
of the week. Residual moisture and instability during the daytime
will warrant at least a slight chance to chance of
showers/thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain of the
Sierra Nevada, southern Nevada and northwest Mohave County.

The only significant winds look to occur across the western Mojave
Desert for a brief time this evening and again Thursday evening.
Does not look to warrant a wind headline.

Temperatures will remain below normal but be creeping up toward
normal over the holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Longwave troughing will remain locked across the western CONUS
through the holiday weekend, providing breezy south winds and
slightly below normal temperatures. Still expect just enough remnant
moisture and destabilization each afternoon for a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada and southern
Great Basin mountains through about Monday. The pattern will then
change as the trough departs and high pressure builds over the west,
which will create a sharp warming trend. The 00Z suite of guidance
is in quite good agreement with this pattern change. Temperatures
several degrees above normal currently appear likely to end the
month of May and welcome June.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A low pressure circulation will
slide under southern Nevada and across Arizona tonight and early
Thursday. VFR conditions can be expected at the terminal but some
showers will be possible over the mountains to the west and south.
There is a slight potential for these showers to generate gusty west
or southwest winds late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise
light diurnal winds can be expected through Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...A low pressure circulation will slide under southern
Nevada and across Arizona tonight and early Thursday. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the
southern Great Basin and southern Sierra through early this evening
before dissipating across most of the region overnight. Variable
winds of 10 to 15 knots will be common across the region with higher
gusts near showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers
will redevelop again across the southern Great Basin and southern
Sierra Thursday afternoon. Cloud bases will generally be 8-10 Kft

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.


Short Term...Pierce
Long Term....Paddock

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