Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
483 FXUS65 KVEF 082211 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 311 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty north-northwest winds will continue through Thursday evening. Temperatures will rebound back to near-average by the end of the work week and will continue to increase through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through next Wednesday. Gusty north-northwest winds between 25 and 35 mph will continue across the forecast area through Thursday evening as a result of tightened north-south surface pressure gradients between a growing ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and a closed low over the central United States. This closed low will retrograde westward through the remainder of the work week, putting the center of the low directly overhead by Friday. Moisture associated with this system is generally meager, though PWATs will increase to around 0.40" across the southern Great Basin, which is around normal for this time of year. This moisture coupled with CAPE values between 250 and 500 J/kg will increase chances of thunderstorms in the southern Great Basin. That said, the low levels will remain very dry, with less than a tenth of an inch of rain expected to reach the ground. These ingredients are likely to result in strong, gusty winds originating from any thunderstorms that form, which will exacerbate chances of lightning-related fire starts and spread. Best chances of dry lightning exist across Lincoln County on Thursday and Friday. The eastern Pacific ridge will win out going into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to increase to above- average by Sunday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the week. Las Vegas has a 13% chance of reaching 100F for the first time this year on Wednesday. On average, Las Vegas`s first 100F is observed on May 24th. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...North-northeast winds will continue into to evening with speeds between 10-20 knots. Winds will likely bounce between 010-040 through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening with speeds dropping to around 10 knots or less, which will continue through the overnight hours. Overall, winds will be lighter on Thursday, but the direction will be northeast after 16z with speeds around 10 knots with occasional gusts up to 18 knots. FEW-SCT clouds down to around 8k feet, mainly over the higher terrain. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...North to northeast winds will remain through the afternoon across most TAF sites. Speeds will generally range from 10- 20 knots with a few locations, especially near KEED/KIFP seeing gusts between 30-35 knots through the afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight with most sites seeing gusts drop below 15 knots. North to northeast winds will redevelop Thursday, but overall speeds will be lower with most areas seeing winds between 10-20 knots. FEW-SCT clouds between 8-10k feet Thursday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Varian AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter