Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 030445 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CONFINING ANY STORMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
LIFT NORTH WITH ONLY A PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER INYO AND FAR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
LOWER POPS AND CLOUDS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
306 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH QUIETER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE NV/UT
LINE WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BASED
ON THIS TREND...REDUCED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD OVERNIGHT...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES MONDAY AND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BOUNCED UP AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND WILL COME
UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE
THE TWO MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. TODAY`S 12Z
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE STANDING LESS FIRM AND INSTEAD OF BEING
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, IS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WITH THE HIGH A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH, THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW OFF THE
COAST AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION IS RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS
BASICALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES
FROM THE GFS REVEALS A SHARP FORECASTED MOISTURE GRADIENT (E.G.,
PWATS 0.5 TO 1.1 INCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS CLARK COUNTY) WITH CWA
PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY
TO 0.1 INCHES OVER THE SIERRA. KEPT MUCH OF WHAT I INHERITED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN REASONABLE FORECAST CONTINUITY IN CASE LATER FORECAST
CYCLES BRING THE HIGH BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BORDER ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY 4-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS DRY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOONS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN INYO
AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/MORGAN/SALMEN

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