Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 202127
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
228 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER
IN STRONG WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS FORECAST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE UTAH BORDER WITH LINCOLN COUNTY AND
OVER THE KANAB PLATEAU NEAR MOUNT TRUMBULL IN NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO NO NEED
TO CARRY THE MENTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT WILL BE NUDGED EAST MONDAY AS
DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL START
TO RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MAKE TOMORROW THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHILE WE SEE
SOME CIRRUS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CLOUDS AND RIDGETOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY SETTING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY AREAWIDE WITH A
GOOD CHANCE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. STRONG BELT OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WHILE MODERATE DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFFILIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY DESERT WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OF INYO
COUNTY EAST INTO ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY LEAVING THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH REBOUND IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  BY FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA.  SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS RATHER COOL AND
MOIST...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER AND DRIER. GIVEN
THE DRY CLIMATOLOGY OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...I FAVORED THE DRIER AND
WARMER EURO SOLUTION.  EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST ACTUALLY BRINGS 70S BACK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WIND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS ABOVE 25 KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL STRENGTHEN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 25
KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NVZ461>466.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR AZZ101-102.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ229.
&&

$$

PIERCE/OUTLER

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