Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 270819
SWOD48
SPC AC 270817

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LESS VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
SLOW-TO-CHANGE PATTERN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES IN SHOWING A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY /D6/ WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL STATES.  GIVEN THIS
PATTERN...IT APPEARS THE LACK OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED
SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

..SMITH.. 08/27/2015


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