Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 190655
SWOD48
SPC AC 190653

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in good agreement through the day3 period
then begin to diverge significantly by Sunday. Remnants of a likely
organized squall line should advance across the central/southern
Plains into portions of the lower MS Valley/upper TX Coast Sunday.
However, ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are considerably different in their
strength/placement of the upper trough by day4 and considerable
convective overturning could prove problematic in predictability of
organized convection. Thunderstorms should develop across the
undisturbed warm sector, in advance of the trough, day4-5 but too
much uncertainty exists at this time to warrant an outlook.

..Darrow.. 10/19/2017



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