Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 170828
SWOD48
SPC AC 170828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT ON D4/SUN OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOCUSED ON D7/WED
OVER A N/S-CORRIDOR OF THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...WHICH MITIGATES ANY CONSIDERATION
OF HIGH-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES /AOA 30 PERCENT/. A PRECEDING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AID IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
BROADENING EML PLUME. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD RESULT IN
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF WRN GULF MOISTURE. BUT GIVEN MULTIPLE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE NERN GULF IN PRECEDING
DAYS...THE RICHNESS OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS QUESTIONABLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/17/2014



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