Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KBUF 201052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
652 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High pressure will remain anchored along the Mid-Atlantic coastline
through the upcoming weekend with dry weather and above normal
temperatures. The pattern will become more unsettled early next week
with a slow moving cold front bringing rain, followed by cooler


High pressure will continue to influence our weather with surface
and upper level ridging expanding northward across the entire eastern
CONUS. Outside of a few waves of high thin cirrus, skies will
be clear with these clouds too thin to have any real impact.

Today will be less windy than yesterday, though there will be a
modest afternoon breeze this afternoon with gusts 10 to 15 mph.
Temperatures will be near to a couple degrees cooler than yesterday
with highs in the lower to mid 60s in the Eastern Lake Ontario
region and in the upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

There will be a weak gradient flow tonight with good, but not
quite ideal, radiational cooling. Winds will go calm in the
sheltered Southern Tier valleys where temperatures will be the
coolest and patchy fog is likely. Lows will range from around
40 in these valleys to the upper 40s to around 50 across the
lake plains where weak downsloping will limit cooling a bit.


High pressure along the east coastline Saturday and Sunday will
bring a fine autumn weekend...with sunshine, warm temperatures in
the 70s. An 80F reading is not out of the question...especially
Saturday which may be the sunnier of the two days. Sunday may
feature some passing cirrus clouds as a storm system advances across
the midwest. Overnight lows will be in the 50s...with Sunday night a
few degrees warmer ahead of the next frontal system.


A baroclinic zone, with a surface wave upon it will be just to our
west Monday...with the frontal zone pushing eastward across our
region through the day and night. Will increase Pops Monday night and
into Tuesday. With the slower arrival of the front, temperatures
will remain on the mild side Monday.

The wettest period looks to lock in on late Monday night and into
Tuesday as the frontal zone stalls across our region and one or more
waves of low pressure shift north along the front. Will have
categorical PoPs in as the boundary crosses us...with potential for
more than an inch of rain as the front will be slow moving. The GFS
shows a potentially moisture rich airmass will move into place along
the front with a connection to the Gulf of Mexico which could push
PWATs above 1.5 inches or more. Temperatures will run closer to
normal, around 60F Tuesday.

Chance POPs are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support showery weather in the wake of the front.
Below normal temps should be expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps
dip to or below zero 0 which would support temps likely struggling
to break above 50 in many locations and may support some lake
enhancement as well into Wednesday night. The coolest low temps
Wednesday night dip into the upper 30s which should still keep a
threat of any snow out of the forecast for now.

Thursday then looks to bring back some dry weather in both GFS and
EC models as western and north-central NY comes under the influence
of a narrow ridge separating a digging trough in the Northern Plains
and potential developing coastal storm just off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Temps forecast near normal with partly sunny skies.


High/thin cirrus will continue to cross the area today. There
is some fog in the river valleys of the western Southern Tier
with patchy IFR conditions through 13Z. After this, there is
high confidence in VFR conditions through this evening with high
pressure firmly in control. Then more river valley fog is
possible late tonight.


Saturday through Sunday...VFR except for local IFR in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with showers.


Winds will continue to diminish through this morning, with waves
falling below 4 ft. Relatively light winds will then return
through the weekend.





MARINE...APFFEL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.