Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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535
FXUS61 KBUF 261035
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will track from the Central Great Lakes to the Eastern
Great Lakes today, bringing abundant sunshine, and summer`s heat in
the 80s. Dry weather will persist until a weak cold front drops
southward from Canada Wednesday night bringing a few stray showers
and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The region is waking up to clear skies this morning. High pressure
this morning is located over the Central Great Lakes region, while a
cold front has raced eastward to along the New England and mid-
Atlantic coastline.

Uneventful weather this period as this surface high pressure and
zonal flow aloft bring a fair weather day with sunshine-filled
skies. There will be fair weather cumulus forming through the
daylight hours, greatest east of Lake Ontario where moisture is
slightly greater, and slightly cooler temperatures aloft are found.
At 850 hPa temperatures of +14 to 17C will bring afternoon surface
highs in the 80s.

Tonight good radiational cooling conditions will bring overnight
lows down into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Both this morning, and again tonight there may be river valley fog
across the Southern Tier. A wet ground from recent rains, combined
with the overnight cooling may promote fog generation through just
past sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather will be maintained Wednesday as a ridge of high
pressure holds over the area ahead of an approaching weak cool
front. Weak warm air advection ahead of the front will push
afternoon temperatures above seasonal normals with upper 80s to near
90 for the lake plains and in the valleys.

Shortwave energy is forecast to ride the western flow aloft into
Western New York Wednesday night and Thursday, while the weak cool
front is pushed down into New York by energy dropping into Ontario,
but with little forcing and limited moisture, expect only a sparse
coverage of showers. It will be warm and humid with most overnight
low temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 60s.

The frontal boundary will stall and weaken just to the south of the
area by Thursday, while a back door cold front approaches from
Canada. We may remain between systems in a relative lull, but do not
have that much confidence in the model frontal positions. Enough
moisture in place with weak low level boundaries in the vicinity to
warrant some limited risk for convection. Some risk for convection
will linger through Thursday night as several models try to generate
a surface low along the old front and push it back northward as a
warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period has the potential to be rather unsettled...or at least
more disorderly than what we have become accustomed to the past
couple months. The good news is that this would lead to some needed
rainfall for the region...but the bad news is that it would
adversely impact some peoples plans for the weekend.

Troughiness found over the Great Lakes region is forecast by some of
the ECMWF/GFS based ensembles to amplify somewhat...and this would
encourage waviness along a stalled frontal boundary over the Mid
West to evolve into an actual sfc low. Will use a compromise of the
HPC and ECMWF solutions...which favors such a sfc low development.
This feature is forecast to slowly track northeast across the Lower
Great Lakes during the course of the weekend while generating
scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the process. Given
the low confidence of this forecast...will keep chc pops in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are found at 12Z across the TAF region, and
these conditions will be predominate through Tuesday night. The
exception will be across the Southern Tier river valleys where
radiational cooling over a damp ground will allow for patchy areas
of fog to form tonight and possibly near the KJHW terminal. Will
place a qualifier of MVFR vsbys in the TAF for now, though IFR is a
possibility with a lighter gradient flow Tuesday night.

Expect light winds through the TAF cycle with surface high pressure
nearing the region from the Central Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds behind a cold front will increase in strength to 15
to 20 knots on Lake Ontario, while slightly weaker in strength over
Lake Erie. For this, we will hoist a small craft advisory for the
eastern shores of Lake Ontario where winds will be strongest and
likely reach criteria, while waves will mainly remain 4 feet or
less.

As high pressure builds across the eastern great lakes today and
tomorrow, winds and wave should remain well below small craft
criteria into the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
         for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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