Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221514
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1114 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across NE OH and NW PA through the
afternoon. Low pressure over the western lakes will move
northeast into Canada by Friday, bringing a cold front east
across the region. A broad trough of low pressure will then
remain over the area through the weekend. High pressure at the
surface will begin to move in from the west Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Need to give the warm advection lift a bit more credit. A few
more showers have developed than anticipated so have nudged
pops up across the northern CWA. Will continue to monitor
temperatures across the north as well. More cloud cover has
developed so have nudged highs down slightly.

Previous Discussion...
A stationary front is located across central Ohio early this
morning. This will lift north through the area later this
morning into early this afternoon as a warm front. The influence
of an upper-level ridge and drier air aloft should keep most
everyone dry through the morning and early afternoon hours.

As the ridge begins to shift off to the east later this
afternoon, the pathway to the Gulf of Mexico will open and
ample moisture will stream in from the southwest - thanks to
Tropical Storm Cindy. This will mean a chance for mid-to-late
afternoon thunderstorm development across far northeast Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania as the warm front may get hung up in
this area. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles are
conducive for strong to perhaps severe storms if any develop in
this area. The main threats would be large hail and strong
winds.

Temperatures this afternoon should warm up nicely with highs
reaching the middle 80s in northwest Pennsylvania and the upper
80s to lower 90s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night. Showers
and storms will become widespread out ahead of this front by
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With tropical moisture
in the area, a wet day is expected Friday for everyone. A few
storms may have the potential to become strong to perhaps
severe, however, there remains a lot of uncertainty. The biggest
limiting factor will be the expansive cloud cover and limited
instability. Another concern is the flooding threat. There is
currently too much uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall
will occur, but there is potential for training thunderstorms
that could lead to flooding.

Any remaining precipitation should be east of the area by
Saturday morning. Saturday should be mostly dry, but can`t
entirely rule out the chance of a spotty afternoon shower across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Dry conditions should
then be the rule for everyone Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

There will be a chance for showers or storms across the
area Sunday as a shortwave trough embedded within the larger
parent trough moves in from the northwest. The best chances will
be across the northern half of the area.

Friday will see highs near to slightly above seasonal levels.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday
with highs dipping back into the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level trough will be overhead to start the long term on Monday
with below normal temperatures. Model are showing some discrepancies
with the amount of moisture which will effect coverage of showers.
Would expect to see at least some diurnally driven showers with an
increase in cloud cover across the eastern half of the area but will
have to refine details with time. Lowered highs a degree or two on
Monday with 850mb temperatures near 6C but these will partially
depend on the amount of cloud cover. Held onto showers near and
downwind of Lake Erie Monday night with some instability expected to
be focused over the lake. Degree of showers will be driven by the
placement of the trough at that point but lake enhanced showers
appear possible, especially if the ECMWF is right which keeps the
trough in the region longer.

Trough shifts east during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame
followed by a ridge building aloft. Temperatures will rebound
through mid-week with conditions drying out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Warm front extends from near Detroit to Cleveland to Akron at
12Z. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across Lake Erie and
could see a few thunderstorms trickle down the frontal boundary
towards NE OH/NW PA late this morning/early this afternoon with
YNG the most likely to be impacted. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected through at least 03Z with breezy southwest winds
gusting to 20 knots most sites this afternoon. Low level
moisture arrives overnight with ceilings lowering to MVFR and
showers arriving towards the end of the TAF cycle. Scattered
thunderstorms are also possible late tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with heavy rain possible Friday. Low
chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday with a cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie today with southwest
winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots on the lake tonight. Given the
increasingly stable conditions and offshore flow, not expecting to
need a Small Craft Advisory. A cold front will move east across the
Lake Friday evening. There is a brief window of time late Friday
afternoon/Friday evening where we will need to be concerned with
Small Craft Advisory conditions as the flow shifts onshore but
should only be 6 hours or less as winds drop off quickly behind the
front Friday night.

A series of cold fronts will move across the lake over the weekend.
Better chances for a Small Craft Advisory will be on Saturday when
westerly winds increase to 15-20 knots and waves build to 3 to 5
feet east of Cleveland.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...Mottice/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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