Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
552 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
LATE TODAY.  THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH NEAR A MEADVILLE PA TO MFD LINE. NORTH OF THAT PRECIP HAS
EITHER ENDED OR CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. SO ENDED ADVISORY FOR
COUNTIES NORTH OF THAT LINE.

ORIGINALS DISCUSSION...
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KNOX COUNTY SO EXPANDED
THE ADVISORY WEST TO AN ERIE COUNTY TO KNOX COUNTY LINE.  THE TROUGH
IS JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE SHORELINE AND PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK THE TROUGH WILL
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 6 AM SO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM

MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH...BUT
THING SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA.   JUDGING FROM THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH SUN TODAY.   SO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET WITH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS WEEKEND THEN OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY.   THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.  TREND FOR BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE INTO IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE GULF.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT
RAIN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM.  ALL
ADVERTISE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT THE SURFACE.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
IT HAD A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.  TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS
DUE...THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST.  THIS SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS
THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS
WILL BE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  BY THAT TIME IT WILL BE ALSO STARTING TO DRY OUT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.  EXPECT THAT THE MODELS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE ON A SOLUTION BUT TILL THEN THINGS REMAIN UP IN THE
AIR.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT PRIMARILY AFFECTING CLE AND YNG AND OCCASIONALLY CAK AND
ERI. SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH IT. TRACE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS. SO CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE WHEN DOES FZDZ END AND HOW LONG IFR CIGS LAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. CEILINGS MAY
TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 13Z-15Z
FRI.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH
OF THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL TAKE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.  SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AND INCREASING SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ022-
     023-029>033-038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA





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