Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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720
FXUS61 KCLE 211112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE
THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DAY. ALSO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY SKY COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE OLD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING AND SHEAR
AND WEAKEN. ON ITS CURRENT PACE...THE PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 6 AM AND WILL
NOT MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
LOW DEW POINTS AND HOW LITTLE RAIN HAS MADE IT TO THE GROUND WITH
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WILL NOT MENTION ANY MORE SPRINKLES ALTHOUGH A
FEW DROPS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE TOLEDO
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXCEPT MID
60S NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AND CAME UP WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE" POPS. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE
TONIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING
OUT. LOWS IN THE 40S.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD INCREASE AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WHERE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY CAUSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO LINGER. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NW OH TO THE LOWER 50S NW PA.

A LARGE AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE FROST FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
COLDER SPOTS MAY WELL BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING SO IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. AT THE VERY LEAST...A
FROST ADVISORY. PREFER TO SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A TRUE FREEZE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.

WILL LIKELY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT WE SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL. WORRIED ABOUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH. I
DOUBT THERE WOULD BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WE CAN
SOMETIMES GET SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PROBABLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOWER LAYERS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ON SUNDAY
UNTIL IT MOISTENS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. THE
AIR MASS CAN SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 70S PERHAPS 80 BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE THAT WARM GIVEN THE CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY DAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DECREASING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE
EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED THIS FAR OUT BUT THE GFS/GEM
ACTUALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONTS
TEND TO GET HELD UP IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SO WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP GOING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GFS HAS PW VALUES UP BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD TO KICK OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER SO KEPT VALUES CONSERVATIVE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE
RAIN AT CLE/MFD/CAK...BUT EXPECTING TO MOSTLY MISS YNG/ERI. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 5-12K WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE 20-02Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING AND BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS ON THE EAST END. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE
FOR FRIDAY EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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