Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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794
FXUS61 KCLE 302257
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...TRYING TO TIME THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THEN TAPERING OF THE
RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LATER TONIGHT... MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY...AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS OHIO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TONIGHT...MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KC INTO NE OHIO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CURRENT HT FALLS NEAR WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH
MODEL FORECAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE SHOWERS NEAR MFD AREA...TO
SPREAD NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OHIO.   NAM MOVES THE LOW TO BUF AREA BY 18Z WHILE
GFS HAS LOW LINGERING OVER NE OHIO.  NAM FASTER TIMING SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE SO USED THAT FOR FORECAST TIMING.  EXPECT SOME MORNING
SHOWERS THAN A BREAK BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.   EITHER
WAY THE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.   EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW INTO UPSTATE NY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.   AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOLDS FIRM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG IT.  THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL TURN INTO A DEEP
EAST COAST LOW.  THE MODELS AS USUAL ARE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT ALL PUMP MOISTURE WEST INTO THE AREA.  THIS
MEANS WE WILL NEED PRECIP CHANCES PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  FOR THOSE THAT THINK THIS
WEEKEND HAS BEEN BAD...YOU WILL PROBABLY BE REALLY DISAPPOINTED WITH
THE NEXT ONE AS WELL.  EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN AS CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE JUST ABOUT SCOURED OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP
BEGINS AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE
PINPOINTING THE LOW TRACK SO THE WIND FORECAST IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT IT TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WHICH MEANS ONLY KTOL
COULD END UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR WEATHER TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH DRYING DURING THE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE
WEST TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY SEE NO NEED FOR
THUNDER. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECT TILL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN
WINDS BECOME SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SOME GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NOT BE GOING OUT WITH A SMALL CRAFT.  WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
MAINLY EAST THE BIGGER WAVES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING.  EVEN IF THE FLOW HAD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DO NOT
THINK THE SPEEDS WOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OUTSIDE OF THIS
EVENING DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT TILL POSSIBLY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA



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