Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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266
FXUS61 KCLE 010238
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the central plains will move northeast across the
Great Lakes Wednesday pulling a cold front across the area followed
by a reinforcing cold front wednesday night. A weak clipper low will
drop southeast across the area Thursday night then high pressure
will push east across the region Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms headed toward our area from two
different directions at this time on the nose of the upper level
jet maxima. We are watching a line of thunderstorms moving east
out of northwest Indiana and another cluster of thunderstorms
moving northeast through southern Indiana. Latest short term
models still showing activity gradually increasing in areal
coverage with time. Made some adjustments early tonight to
account for better timing of the thunderstorms as they arrive
and develop. Minor adjustments to temperatures as well and they
should remain nearly steady and then begin to rise toward
morning slowly.

Previous Discussion...
The airmass should support only sct convection this evening becoming
more numerous thru the night into Wednesday as a surface cold front
approaches and upper dynamics improve. Some of the storms could be
severe with damaging winds and large hail. There is also a threat
for an isolated tornado. The first of two cold fronts will push ese
across the cwa wed bringing the threat for tsra to an end as it
passes. However, a threat for shra will continue due to strong upper
level dynamics and the approach of the second front. The speed of
the tsra producing heavy rain should help to limit flooding
potential but there are still likely a few spots that see enough
training to probably have a few flood related issues.

Winds will increase to be gusting 30 to 40 mph tonight and wed.
Temps will be falling Wed afternoon but should not get cold enough
for a chg of rain to snow until tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The reinforcing arctic front will push se across the cwa the first
half of Wed night changing rain to snow. Wrap moisture looks decent
Wed night into Thu so will increase accumulation a little more,
especially in the snowbelt.

A weak clipper type low will drop se across the area late Thu and
Thu night. This will disrupt the flow to limit the lake enhanced
snow showers but also lead to a more widespread snow that should
result in an inch or two for a good part of the cwa. After the
clipper has passed, a return to lake enhanced snow showers appears
likely for Fri. High pressure should push east into the area Fri
night to shut down the lake effect shsn but the models are quickly
showing a band of warm advection moisture and possible light snow
coming into the nw by the end of Fri night.

Warmer than normal temps thru Wed will shift to below normal the
rest of the period as the arctic air moves into the region starting
wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today.   High pressure will slide
across the area on Saturday so the area should be dry.  A weak
disturbance will pass to the northeast on Sunday and could bring
some very light precip to the east end of the area.  A warm front
from low pressure over the Plains will lift across the area for the
end of the weekend bringing precip chances back to the area Sunday
night and especially Monday.  Highs will be seasonable on Saturday
but much above normal weather is again expected for both Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR ceilings will continue tonight. Some IFR ceilings will
brush the area, mainly the first half of the night. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase and expand in coverage from the
west overnight. Some storms will be severe. Damaging winds will
be the greatest threat although large hail and an isolated
tornado are possible. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
be likely on Wednesday until the cold front moves across the
area in the afternoon. The greatest threat of severe weather may
be with the early morning activity but strong gusty winds of 40
knots are possible with the cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon. Ceilings should improve to VFR on Wednesday but local
MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely in the heavier showers.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will gradually increase tonight ahead of an
approaching front.  The front will move across the lake on Wednesday
and will likely see westerly Gales behind the front.  Will go ahead
and issue the Gale Warning with the new package.  Winds will come
down quickly tomorrow so it will be short lived.  West to northwest
flow will continue into the start of the weekend.  A ridge will
cross the lake on Saturday returning the flow to a southerly
direction which will then continue through the end of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>145-
     162>165.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Adams
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kubina



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