Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 030805
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE AS THERE IS
OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND
THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS
FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...STILL THINK
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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