Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290519
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1219 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THRU UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NW PA AND THEN IT WILL DECREASE
FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AFFECTING
MAINLY EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL WATCHING FOR THE THREAT
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW OH AROUND DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS
IN THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT. NO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
SOME CHANGES TO THE LOWS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THRU
SAT AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIFT AND LEAD TO
CONTINUED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE CWA WITH A
GENERAL SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE HALF BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ESE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WHILE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE NE BY DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD RANGE FROM NONE IN THE FAR SW TO POSSIBLY AN INCH IN THE
FAR NE. A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR SO SOME SNOWBELT AREAS
COULD SEE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

POPS THRU 08Z LARGELY RESULT FROM MIX OF RUC/HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
DATA.

THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL ANY FURTHER THEN TEMPS SHOULD RISE SOME DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND EXTEND THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SIT ON THE COAST AND PUMP WARM
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TRUE
EFFECTS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY WHEN THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ARRIVES. LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FORCE THE
WARMING INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THERE WILL NOT
BE A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO MONDAY.
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT THAT STRONG AND
ACTUALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LIFT IS IN QUESTION
BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CURRENTLY HAVING A PIECE OF JET ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE BUT
IT IS 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
AFFECTING MAINLY KERI. ELSEWHERE RADAR RETURN IS MOSTLY ALOFT. THE
EXCEPTION BEING ECHOES MOVING ACROSS SRN LWR MI THAT COULD BRUSH
KTOL AND KCLE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT KERI.
SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
MAINLY A VFR EARLY/MID MORNING BUT CIGS WILL BE DROPPING LATE
MORNING/NOON AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH MVFR...POSSIBLY TO IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW DRYING FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
SO DID RAISE CONDITIONS TO VFR TOL AND FDY AFTER 02Z.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER WAVES BEYOND
5 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND QUICKLY COME AROUND TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






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