Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...TRYING TO TIME THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THEN TAPERING OF THE
RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LATER TONIGHT... MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY...AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS OHIO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TONIGHT...MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KC INTO NE OHIO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CURRENT HT FALLS NEAR WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH
MODEL FORECAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE SHOWERS NEAR MFD AREA...TO
SPREAD NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OHIO.   NAM MOVES THE LOW TO BUF AREA BY 18Z WHILE
GFS HAS LOW LINGERING OVER NE OHIO.  NAM FASTER TIMING SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE SO USED THAT FOR FORECAST TIMING.  EXPECT SOME MORNING
SHOWERS THAN A BREAK BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.   EITHER
WAY THE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.   EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW INTO UPSTATE NY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.   AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOLDS FIRM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG IT.  THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL TURN INTO A DEEP
EAST COAST LOW.  THE MODELS AS USUAL ARE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT ALL PUMP MOISTURE WEST INTO THE AREA.  THIS
MEANS WE WILL NEED PRECIP CHANCES PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  FOR THOSE THAT THINK THIS
WEEKEND HAS BEEN BAD...YOU WILL PROBABLY BE REALLY DISAPPOINTED WITH
THE NEXT ONE AS WELL.  EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN AS CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR ABOUND WITH RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z AT TOLEDO AND AFTER
12Z IN ERIE...SO RA DZ AND BR ARE ALL FAIR GAME UNTIL THEN. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR ARE EVEN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY TOUCHED IFR WITH THE RAIN AND FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK...FIRST IN THE WEST
AND THEN IN THE EAST. -RA DZ AND BR WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS.
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
IN THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. AS WAS ALREADY MENTIONED...WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPROVE TO LOW
END VFR. BETTER CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE AT TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY. OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAIN LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN MORE
NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LONGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NOT BE GOING OUT WITH A SMALL CRAFT.  WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
MAINLY EAST THE BIGGER WAVES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING.  EVEN IF THE FLOW HAD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DO NOT
THINK THE SPEEDS WOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OUTSIDE OF THIS
EVENING DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT TILL POSSIBLY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KUBINA



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