Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1257 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE DROPPED THE WIND HEADLINES FOR ALL BUT THE EAST LAKESHORE
AREAS...AND FOR THEM REDUCED IT TO A WIND ADVISORY VS. A HIGH WIND
WARNING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOW ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND MOVING INTO MAINLAND
CANADA. THE COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRONG
WINDS WITH THE FRONT AND THE PRESSURE RISES ARE NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST WILL ONLY SEE 30 MPH. WINDS STRONGER ACROSS THE
LAKE AND THESE WINDS CAN STILL AFFECT THE EAST LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED. SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE
LEFT IN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE. FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE LIGHT
RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH SNOW CLOSER TO MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
NW PA CHRISTMAS MORNING. IT MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET THE
RAINFALL INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT
WILL REACH NW OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE STILL A LITTLE UNSETTLED...BUT I WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS. COLDER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

ON LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS BRING A LOW UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TRENDING
TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TURNING A BIT COLDER
LATER NEXT WEEK AS WINTER REALLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE ROUTINE...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR SO
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ERIE. LOW PRESSURE
NEAR TOLEDO WILL UNDERGO RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 45 KNOT GALES
AND COULD BRIEFLY SEE LOCALIZED STORM FORCE WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING AND MONITOR
CONDITIONS AS THEY UNFOLD THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS WILL GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.

THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AT NOON AND
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT 4 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
REPLACE IT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS WAVES TAKE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE.

A RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC



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