Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 012310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT AND THE TO THE
EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP AND TEMPS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH DEVELOPMENT OF DRY SLOT AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

ORIGINAL...PRECIPITATION HAS FILLED BACK IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS THE UPWARD MOTION IS INCREASING RAPIDLY...ALMOST TO THE
POINT OF BEING A BIT CONVECTIVE. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE THE PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. A LINE SOUTH OF UPPER
SANDUSKY TO CANTON WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN AND SLEET MIXED
IN AND ALMOST ANYONE COULD SEE A FEW SLEET PELLETS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THAT POINT THE PRECIP COULD LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH
TO BECOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNIZZLE.
WHERE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS IT SHOULD OCCUR IN SMALL AMOUNTS
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET
THIS BATCH OF SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN PERHAPS WE CAN
DROP SOME OF THE ADVISORIES OR DOWNGRADE A FEW OF THE
WARNINGS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
UP BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO FALL PRETTY GOOD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK IN. LOWS FROM
AROUND 10 NORTHWEST OHIO TO NEAR 20 FROM CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM PULLS OUT IN THE MORNING...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO. SOMEWHAT MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA 3 OR 4 MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT SINCE THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE ERIE IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
MAY CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE A FEW
SUNNY BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A
PROBLEM...MAINLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR LAKE ERIE...BUT WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND CHILLS WILL
BECOME LOW....DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS NW OH...BUT STAYING JUST
ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LOWS ARE TRICKY MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS... WE SHOULD
SEE LOWS BELOW ZERO IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FORECAST WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS MEANS MORE SNOW AND COLD AS A SERIES OF ARCTIC
BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY.  BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA SO THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD REMAIN NORTH.  LOW MOVES
OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING ANTHER ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.  THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM CRATERING.   ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
USHERING IN COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS.  BACK DOOR FRONT SAGS ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  UNFORTUNATELY BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF TRACK ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT
LEAST FOR NOW IT IS WELL SOUTH OF OHIO...WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW A
LITTLE BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO WILL GIVE MFD
CAK AND YNG A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR ST LOUIS AND WILL MOVE INTO SW
OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA/PL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO MNN
LINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR TOL/ERI WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FOR THE LONGEST DURATION AT TOL. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO PA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO
THE AREA AND SNOW WILL RETURN. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONCLUDE
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WITH BOTH GUSTS AND
BLSN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 30 KNOTS STARTING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE GALE FORCE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE LAKE WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBLE
CLOSURE OF PREVIOUS TRACKS AS THE ICE SHIFTS. WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>030-036-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ031>033-
     037-038-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.