Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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086
FXUS61 KCLE 251155
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
655 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front will lift north of the region early this morning. A
cold front should be east of the region by afternoon. High
pressure will spread north into the region for Monday and
Tuesday before shifting off to the east for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated to increase the area covered by the wind advisory. It
now includes the entire region. KFDY and KTOL were both
sustained at 30+ mph with gusts 47 to 54 mph.

Previous Discussion...
Warm front will lift north of the area early this morning with
highs occurring during the morning hours at most locations. The
only exception may be across NW Ohio where sunshine this
afternoon may nudge temperatures back up in the wake of the
front. This cold front will race across the northern Ohio/NW PA
this morning. Gusty winds will occur with the frontal passage.
The strongest area of winds looks as if it will track across the
western half of the area. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible and
have been occurring across Illinois and Indiana overnight. So we
have issued a wind advisory for the west. The downsloping flow
near Erie may also increase to around 50 mph around sunrise so
we added them into the wind advisory as well. Kept the wind
advisory going for the Erie area until the frontal boundary
passes late morning. We will monitor the area in between for any
stronger gusts but the bulk of the wind max should lift out
over Lake Erie.

Most of the steady rainfall has already shifted east of the
area but there still could be a quick breezy/windy shower that
moves east across the area through the morning. Have already
cancelled the flood watch west of I-71 and will remove more as
the cold front moves eastward. Besides we will allow a bit more
water to get to the rivers before we remove the concern of
flooding.

High pressure takes control tonight and will persist into
Monday. So expect sunshine and dry conditions for Monday. It
will be cooler but above seasonal average. Highs will range
from the mid 40s to lower 50s. It will be cooler near the
lakeshore from Lake County into Erie county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Large broad upper level ridge will dominate the eastern two
thirds of the United States through this forecast period. Some
amplification of the upper level ridge will take place with time
by Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough moves east
toward the Great Lakes region.

Surface high pressure will result from the upper level ridge.
The surface high pressure will build east across the forecast
area and then off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday night. The
upper level ridge and surface high pressure will result in fair
weather across the forecast area which is needed after the
considerable rainfall much of the local area has seen in the
last few days.

As the high pressure moves east of the area, a return to warm air
advection will take place Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad upper level ridge over the forecast area will move east and
off the east coast Thursday night as a shortwave trough dives into
the forecast area. The upper level trough will evolve into a
relatively small upper level low pressure system with a vigorous
positive vorticity maximum associated with it. The upper level
low pressure system will move quickly off the Mid Atlantic Coast
by Friday night as another broad upper level ridge builds east
toward the eastern United States.

As the upper level shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted and
upper level low pressure develops, a reflection to the surface will
take place and surface low pressure will develop across the southern
Plains states. The surface low pressure will intensify as it
moves northeast toward the Ohio Valley region. The low will tap
into the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture and force copious
amounts of moisture into the forecast area in advance of the low
pressure system. More rain will make its presence Wednesday
night across the southwest portions of the forecast area and
across the entire forecast area by Thursday. As the surface low
pressure system moves east of the area, cold air advection will
follow the low and area could see a brief changeover to snow by
Friday night. So far, not looking at much in the way of
accumulation then as precipitation shield is exiting to the east
fairly quickly. Fair weather returns for much of the area
Saturday as high pressure begins to build east across the area.

Warm air advection will take place initially ahead of the low
pressure system Thursday but colder air will arrive for Friday and
drop temperatures back down near or slightly above normal into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cold front located from KCLE to KI43 at 1145Z. A gusty shower
is located along the front with a gust to 45 knots a good bet.
Westerly winds in the wake of the cold front will remain
elevated through the morning and may continue to gust to 40
knots.

MVFR ceilings will gradually decrease in coverage and lift in
the wake of the front with cloud cover clearing from west to
east through the afternoon. Much calmer drier conditions are
expected tonight into Monday as high pressure takes control.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase through the day today on the lake.  Expecting a
wind maximum to move east into the area and could have some impact
on the lake. Strongest winds and gusts to 30 knots possible
briefly with the wind max this morning. Some downsloping winds
could be quite gusty along the shore off Erie County in
Pennsylvania mostly this morning. Otherwise, winds gradually
diminish tonight into Monday on the lake and become fairly light
and variable by Monday night. A persistent south to southwest
flow will occur over the lake but remain fairly light and then
will shift to an easterly flow by Wednesday night. A warm front
will lift north Thursday across the lake and the winds will
become variable. Front will stall as a stationary front over the
lake Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ011>014-020>023-
     031>033-038-089.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-006>010-
     017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Lombardy



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