Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 172044
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
A cold front over the area will move off to the east this evening
then high pressure will spread northeast into the region wednesday
into thursday then shift east friday. A series of low will move
northeast from texas into the great lakes late friday through the
middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front over the eastern co`s will move off to the east the
next few hours. Drier air at lower levels will be slow to spread
across the area so a threat for lingering light rain will hang
around thru the night aided by a sharp upper trough moving ese into
the cwa by the end of the night. Lows should stay above freezing so
freezing precip should not occur but a few areas could see a few wet
snowflakes mix in by the end of the night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will shift ese out of the area by midday with drier
air pushing in so the threat for light rain shra should mostly be
done by mid afternoon in the east where the threat will last the
longest. Temps on wed will be cooler with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and wed night will also be colder with lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s as the clouds break up.
The high will start shifting east on thu but still dominate enough
to keep conditions dry but clouds should be on the increase in the
The next low will move into the region fri but temps with this
system will be warm enough for just rain. The latest models indicate
rain should start to spread ne into the area late thu night and
likely be fairly widespread fri before tapering down sw to ne
late fri into fri night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures with periods of rain expected during
the extended portion of the forecast. Broad trough across North
America gradually shifts eastward with low pressure moving north
from the Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. Raised temperatures over the
weekend into the 50s and can not rule out a few locations
approaching 60. Saturday looks like the dry day between systems with
a good surge of moisture returning later Sunday into Monday. Models
in good agreement with deep moisture spreading north into the area
ahead of the nearly vertically upper level and surface lows curling
north towards the Ohio Valley. Will have to re-define pops over the
coming days once we get a better handle on if the low lift north
taking the rain with it or if it will stall to our south with a
longer period of rain.
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered showers will continue at CAK/YNG/ERI through 20Z before
exiting to the east. A break in the low clouds is accompanying the
cold front which extended from CLE-MFD at 18Z. This period of VFR
ceilings will be short lived as ceilings decline to MVFR and
eventually IFR behind the front. Southwest winds have also gusted
to 20-30 knots with the frontal passage. IFR ceilings will become
widespread tonight with some areas of low IFR expected. Another
trough will swing through between 04-12Z with scattered light
showers re-developing with the best coverage downwind of Lake
Erie. Visibilities will start to improve between 14-16Z but IFR
ceilings will linger into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR will linger into Wednesday night all
areas and Thursday in the east. Non-VFR returns Thursday night
and continues into Saturday.
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will shift to the eastern
Great Lakes overnight. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots with waves building to 2 to 4 feet on the east end of the
lake. Conditions are expected to remain just under Small Craft
Advisory Criteria overnight but will be choppy on the east end of
Fairly good marine conditions expected for much of the week with a
prolonged period of above normal temperatures. High pressure will be
overhead on Wednesday then shift to the east coast on Thursday. A
series of weak troughs will lift out of the Plains across the
western Great Lakes over the weekend.