734
FXUS63 KLBF 091920
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/maybe a rumble of thunder north of I-80
  through this evening, then mainly dry heading into the
  weekend.

- Unsettled conditions return with scattered showers and
  thunderstorms into next week, particularly on Sunday and
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal this weekend
  and continue warm into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A weakly forced environment with ample low level moisture and slight
instability will keep a good amount of diurnally driven clouds and a
few showers around central/western Nebraska into this evening. While
a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out, given the meager
instability the probabilities are quite low and with no significant
shear no organized convection is expected. The best potential for
precipitation will be north of I-80 and mainly along/north of Hwy 2.
Coverage is expected to remain sparse and any precipitation amounts
will be quite light. Any showers will be diminishing through this
evening and largely dissipated by early tonight.

As the upper trof continues to split with a closed low migrating
slowly to the southwest while more northern stream energy dives down
into the upper midwest, there may be enough residual moisture and
instability in the weakly forced environment to support a stray
shower tomorrow from the western sandhills into the northern
panhandle, but overall conditions look to be dry across the region
Friday through Friday night.

Highs tomorrow will be just a tad on the cool side with temperatures
ranging from the middle 60s in the panhandle to around 70 further to
the east. Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Ensemble guidance is generally in good agreement into next week
depicting the upper closed low over the southwest US eventually
rejoining the progressive main flow this weekend, followed by
additional northern stream energy pushing another trof through the
Rockies and into the Plains toward the middle of next week. This
pattern looks favorable for keeping extremes at bay with no
discernable signal for any impactful weather through Wednesday.
Overall this pattern will allow moisture to pool over the midsection
of the country as is evident when looking at the low end signal in
precipitable water anomalies, but nothing approaching upper
percentiles. This ambient moisture will combine with the progressive
pattern to keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast just about each day, particularly Sunday as the low over
the southwest ejects and again Tuesday/Wednesday as the next upper
trof drives a cold front through the region. Temperatures will be
warming to a bit above seasonal normals through the weekend and into
the first part of next week with highs generally in the 70s and lows
generally in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into this
evening, with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible
through sunset. After sunset, precipitation should quickly wane,
with low clouds exiting the area. VFR conditions are then
expected to prevail through tonight into tomorrow afternoon.
Winds remain gusty this afternoon from the north, before
weakening and transitioning northwesterly tonight. Additional
gusts from the northwest can be anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Brown