Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 231106
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
306 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...The active weather pattern is continuing across the
Great Basin. Nevada is still receiving light accumulating snow
with moisture still streaming in from the northwest. The weather
will dry out slightly Thursday, but remain cold and blustery.
Additional storm systems will be possible as we head into the
.SHORT TERM...This morning through Saturday. Incredible satellite
presentation across SE ID this morning. Deep closed low and
impressive moisture fetch is continuing to impact our CWA. Looking
at snotel data, obs, and webcams, moderate to locally heavy
snowfall continues. The heaviest snow is currently located across
the Jarbidge , Ruby Mtns, and in NE Nevada around Jackpot. Expect
northern Elko County, especially near the ID/NV line to pick up
several more inches of snow. The webcam near Jackpot show snow
covered roads and this will likely impact morning travel.
Further south and west, light snow fell overnight along the I80
corridor. Decided to issue an early morning Impact Based Winter
Weather Advisory for an adverse morning commute. Roads are slick
around the area and gusty winds are not helping the situation.
Visibility is limited and locations are seeing blowing/drifting
snow. Motorists need to slow down this morning and take it easy.
Elko is mostly done, but flurries or light snow showers will
continue into the morning leading to additional light
accumulations. For Spring Creek, Lee, Jiggs, Starr Valley, upslope
snow continues with an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow possible.
The Ruby Mtns, also continue to get moderate to heavy snow with
snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hr. At this trend, 6 to 12
additional inches of snow are likely. The highest peaks and
favorable NW facing slopes could see substantially higher amounts.
Travel through Secret Pass is not recommended, since strong gusty
winds will create widespread blowing/drifting snow through the
pass and on the north end of Ruby valley.
Later today, moisture will wane cutting back on the widespread
snow showers. However enough instability will be available for
isolated to scattered snow showers to develop this afternoon.
Impacts will be minimal since this will occur during the afternoon
hours. The Ruby Mtns will see continued snowfall.
By Friday, moisture will continue to exit the area and heights
will build. Even though heights rise, don`t expect much in the way
of a warm up. Temps will remain in the upper 20s to lower/middle
30s for highs. Cold morning lows with many single digits will be
likely. Places with snow on the ground will see temps plummet and
some of our colder locations could see temps dip below zero.
On Saturday, yet another cold trof will move through the area.
This trof seems to split with the best energy sliding south along
the Cali coast. That will limit moisture and snow amounts. Even
though the system appears to split, enough instability/moisture
exists for at least light snow amounts.
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday. A trough and
attendant snow showers are expected to quickly exit the state
Saturday night. Ridging in the wake of the this system will
provide for a brief period of dry and quiet conditions before the
next wave of unsettled weather enters the region. A Pacific
Northwest trough is is progged to drop southeastward across the
Great Basin region bringing more snow within a broad northwest
flow regime late Sunday through Monday. Longwave trough pattern
shifts eastward for the middle of next week allowing for warming
temperatures as a ridging pattern becomes established.
Below normal temperatures, for a change, will exist across the
state for a good part of next week. Guidance suggests even cooler
temperatures on the way for much of next week. Highs will
generally be in the low to mid 30s. Lows will be in the teens and
20s but could drop significantly low depending on snow cover.
.AVIATION...Occasional snow showers will mainly impact the
KEKO through the morning hours. Conditions will likely drop to
MVFR or lower during periods of snow. Light snow is expected to
return to to KELY and KMWC by this afternoon. Daytime winds from
the northwest gusting to near around 25 kts will exist at KTPH.
.HYDROLOGY...The Humboldt river continues in flood stage from
Battle Mountain downstream through Winnemucca. Minor flooding at
Battle Mountain with moderate flooding from Comus downstream. The
flood crest expected to reach Winnemucca on Thursday with a slow
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
Southwestern Elko County.