Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222117
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
217 PM PDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system is translating across the Great Basin
bringing unsettled weather to the silver state. Satellite and
radar show ongoing valley rain and mountain snow with
thunderstorms. Another storm system should impact the Great Basin
this friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

Today through Thursday evening. A storm system is currently
translating across the Great Basin causing unsettled weather in
the silver state. This is mainly in the form of valley rain and
snow in the higher elevations. Satellite shows ongoing afternoon
thunderstorms which is caused by a combination of the daytime
heating and instability from the storm system. There is a corridor
of enhanced instability along a stalled boundary that stretches
from southern Lander and Eureka to the northeast corner of Elko
county. The amount of precipitation from this system will be
fairly high with significant accumulation of snow in the mountains
expected. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Ruby
Mountains as well as elevations above 6000 feet in White Pine,
Southern Lander/Eureka Counties and northern Nye Counties. The
trough axis will continue to move eastward with the showers
tapering off west to east Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This will mainly be a
dry period between systems. A short wave ridge will move over the
Great Basin. The next storm system will begin to intrude into the
Great Basin late Friday morning bringing increased cloud cover and
possibly an early sprinkle or two.

Friday afternoon through Saturday. The next storm system will
move across the Great basin spreading showers from the west to
east through Friday. The precipitation will be similar to today
system with rain in the valleys and snow in the mountains. The
snow levels look to be a little higher with this system around
7000 feet which should keep most valley snow free. The instability
with this system is not to favorable at this time so thunderstorms
were not included in the forecast. The amount of snow accumulation
in the mountains in White Pine county may warrant another
elevation based winter weather advisory in the future. The showers
will begin to tapper of from west to east late Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday. Showers across
central and far eastern NV Saturday night taper off into Sunday
morning with dry conditions across most of the cwa Sunday. There
will be another system punching in from the NW later on Sunday
with valley rain and mountain snow moving into Humboldt County
before sunset. Moderate valley rain and mountain snow will spread
across most of Humboldt and Elko Counties Sunday night into
Monday. Reinforcing energy on Monday will expand precipitation
over northern and into central NV. Models are coming into
agreement with a sw-ne oriented frontal boundary setting up
between roughly Gabbs and Jarbidge Monday afternoon with moderate
showers and possibly thunderstorm activity. Central NV shower
activity continues on Tuesday before the associated upper low
passing over CA/NV exits to the southeast Tuesday night with brief
ridging and showers ending.

&&

.AVIATION...Convective activity this afternoon across much of
northern and central NV will taper off into the evening hours.
Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce
small hail, brief moderate rain, and gusty outflow winds with
reductions in vis and cig likely. Valley rains and mountain snows
will continue this evening and overnight with showers ending from
west to east early on Thursday. Heaviest snow will be across
mountains of central NV including the vicinity of KELY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A low pressure system will bring moderate valley rain
and mountain snow to much of the region this evening and overnight
with showers tapering off from west to east on Thursday. Another
system will move in Friday into Saturday to bring more valley rain
and mountain snow. Creeks may see some periodic responses, however
the Humboldt River should see much less of an impact.

Bruneau River: Moderate flooding is occurring, with the river now
receding slightly.

Humboldt River (near Elko): Is at least a half a foot below minor
flood stage, with very little change the past 3 days. No new
flooding is forecast.

Humboldt River (at Carlin): Is below minor flood stage, with no
new flooding forecast.

Humboldt River (at Palisade): Is forecast to rise slightly tonight
which would put it in minor flood stage. A gradual rise is
forecast through the weekend with the river remaining in minor
flood stage.

Humboldt River (at Battle Mountain): Is in moderate flood stage,
and is forecast to gradually rise through the weekend with the
river remaining in moderate flood stage.

Humboldt River (at Comus): Is in moderate flood stage, and is
forecast to gradually rise through the weekend with the river
remaining in moderate flood stage.

Marys River: Is in minor flood stage and forecast to gradually
recede through the weekend with the river remaining in minor
flood stage.

Martin Creek: Has receded below minor flood stage, and is expected
to remain below flood stage through at least this weekend. The
flood warning which was in effect yesterday and last night has
been cancelled.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are well below minor flood
stage and forecast to remain so through at least the weekend.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

99/96/96


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