Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 231013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG JET STREAM FOR MID-SUMMER WILL BRING BREEZY
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES BACK INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG 80KT JET IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AS THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH COMING ASHORE AND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH.
THIS IS CAUSING A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
700-300MB. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO ADVECTED VERY DRY AIR INTO
EASTERN NEVADA OVER THE LAST 18HRS...WITH R.H. VALUES DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MOISTURE HELD ON ACROSS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOW BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE UNDER STRONG HEATING TODAY.

ON THURSDAY A STRONG 561DAM 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
WASHINGTON STATE WITH A DRY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME SLIGHTER COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL DOWN ABOUT
5-7 DEGREES. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY OVER NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FOUR CORNERS HIGH STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV BY SUNDAY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NV ON SUNDAY THEN EXPAND WESTWARD ON MONDAY
TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AFT 19Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. IN ADDITION A VERY DRY
TONGUE OF AIR PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA LATE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION FIRES ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA BURNING ACTIVELY ALL NIGHT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
STILL BEING HIT AT THIS HOUR ON SOME OF THE 9K RAWS SITES. THINGS
WILL NOT IMPROVE TO MUCH TODAY...EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN
TO CLIMB A BIT ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AS THE REALLY DRY AIR
PULLS OUT. WITH THAT BEING SAID DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ONLY
IN THE MID-TEENS AND WON`T CLIMB THAT MUCH TODAY...SO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. DOWN IN THE VALLEYS
WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY NOON AS STRONG HEATING MIXES OUT ANY
INVERSIONS EARLY...ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THE
ONLY TWO ZONES THAT DON`T HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
FORECASTED TODAY ARE 467 AND 454...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6K IN 467. THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
THERE WAS GOOD LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN THIS ZONE YESTERDAY...BUT IT
HAS ALSO BEEN MOIST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH SOME GOOD WETTING
RAINS. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

95/91/91/95






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