Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 050908
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO THE STATE. CONVECTION IS
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY OVER WESTERN NEVADA OUTSIDE OF THE LKN
CWFA. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS NOW INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SKIRT THE COASTAL REGION BUT NOT
MOVE ONSHORE UNTIL LATER. THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL STILL INFILTRATE
MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN ENOUGH TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT HEALTHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUX MUCH
FURTHER EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING IN AREAS EAST OF LANDER AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WITH A FOCUS ON WHITE PINE
COUNTY...NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SOUTHERN LANDER MAY
NOT SEE SUCH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH. HOWEVER TO THE
EAST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH ON MORE OF A WIDESPREAD NOTE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT PROPOSES THE LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND LOS ANGELES...WHICH IS MORE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODELS SUGGESTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS WILL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THE MODELS AGREE ON THE LOCATION AND DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT SPREAD OVER AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALI TO UP NEAR
WYOMING. CENTER OF THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY
MORNING IS IN CENTRAL WYOMING. STILL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH.
MINOR DIFFS IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS BOTH
DEPICT ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPPING INTO THE NEAR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
AND DUMB-BELLING AROUND THE FIRST LOW. THIS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS
AMPLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY TAPERS
DOWN AS TRAJECTORIES AROUND THE DOUBLE LOW SYSTEM MOVE FROM
OFFSHORE TO INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALSO...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING WILL ENABLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND NORTHERN NEVADA. AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE, THOUGH WILL NOT DEPICT CONVECTION AS "DRY". ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT TO ENABLE SNOW ON THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES WITH A FEW INCHES FALLING UP THERE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN RISING TO OVER 10K FEET. VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S BUT...OF
COURSE...HIGHER VALLEYS IN THE 20S OR EVEN LOWER IN A FEWER HIGHER
AND MORE EXPOSED PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW SYSTEM MOVING INSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE UP WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT KTPH AND KELY BETWEEN 20
KNOTS AND 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS POP UP NEAR KWMC AND
KTPH AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AND THEN TURN TO SHOWERS AT ALL SITES LATER
IN THE EVENING. VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY...BUT SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OF HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. THE JARBIDGE
RIVER AND LAMOILLE CREEK ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AND HAVE BEEN
PEAKING IN THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR
SMALL STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT
COULD MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/98/98



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