Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 280923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Anomalous moist Pacific storm system moves across
Nevada late tonight and Friday. Significant rainfall will occur
with the heaviest rain across Humboldt and northern Elko county
where local flooding is possible. Fast moving Pacific waves bring
additional showers on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.
Anomalously moist upper level low off the California coast has
tapped into hurricane Seymours moisture. This weather system is
interacting with the Pacific front that has reached the northern
intermountain region with the trailing portion over extreme
northwest Nevada corner. The combination of these features results
with moisture wrapping up around the upper low as it reaches the
Lake Tahoe basin Friday morning and will be over Elko by mid
afternoon. The highest QPF amounts are expect to cut across
Humboldt county, the Independence range and as far east as
Jarbidge wilderness. Rainfall amounts in this area could approach
1 inch across the valleys with upwards to 2 inches for the Santa
Rosas and Independence range. Widespread rain is expected after
midnight and continues into Friday afternoon, then gradually
diminishes as showers late in the day. Although not a classic
flash flood scenario, went ahead and issued a watch with the main
concern being mud and debris flows, potential for rock slides,
and ponding of water for some of the valley floors that could make
travel difficult on back roads.

Thunderstorms will form during the afternoon hours as the system`s
low center passes over Nevada. The vorticity and shear associated
with the low center will create the favorable environment for
enhanced rain showers and thunderstorms. The strength may be such
that it could support a few stronger storms. The area most
favorable for this type of activity favors northern Nye county up
towards the Elko area.

For White Pine and northeast Nye county, the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms occurs on Friday as the front moves
across the region. Rainfall amounts will be the lowest, but still
respectable with 0.25 to 0.50 possible at some locations (but
valleys closer to the Utah border will not be as wet).

Extensive cloud cover across the region will keep temps on the
cool side. Given the moist but mild air, snow levels will be high
and no appreciable snow accumulations are expected.

Aside from isolated showers across northwest Nevada on Saturday,
most areas will be dry but breezy. The next Pacific weather system
will be encroaching from the west, and some showers will be
developing northwest of Winnemucca. Southwest flow prevails and
daytime temps stay above normal with 60s in the valleys (upper 50s
near the Idaho border).

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Friday. Progressive
pattern in store for the longer term period, but model differences
in the longer range make confidence steadily decrease through the

A short ridge over the Rockies with a weakly closed low offshore
Saturday night means southwest flow over the Great Basin through
MOnday. A normally dry patten this will actually drag some
moisture into the coast, which the Sierras will grab as they
normally do, but jet dynamics aloft will be sufficient to enhance
the moisture and give us more than normal. This could result in
some heavier rain for northern Nevada Sunday and Sunday night.
Pops linger into the first part of the week as the low hits the
coast but then open into a wave and moves north of the area Monday
and Tuesday. Snow levels will drop to near 6000 feet in northern
Nevada, especially Humboldt County and northern Elko County. Max
temps drop from current balmy readings to more seasonal values.
Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

Starting Tuesday the models suffer from communications issues,
apparently, and show some widely varying ideas of pops and precip.
Kept previous ideas in tact for the most part, apart from some
adjustments on our borders. The overall idea of a progressive
pattern with some chance for rain/snow showers stands.


.AVIATION...Cigs lower at KWMC and KEKO before sun rise to close
to MVFR or even MVFR. Visibility may drop below 6sm in heavier
showers, briefly. Cigs lower to close to MVFR at KELY and KTPH
after sun up. Heavier showers are not likely at KTPH...possible at
KELY...and most likely at KEKO and KWMC during the day. Winds
generally light at KWMC and KEKO but gusting to over 28 knots at
KELY and KTPH this afternoon. These conditions will last well into
Friday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...Significant rainfall is expected across zones 467,
468, and 469 late tonight and Friday. Widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms will be possible across northeast Nevada,
central and east central Nevada. Dry on Saturday except for
isolated showers in zone 467, but the chance for more showers
occur on Sunday and Monday.


Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Humboldt County-
Northern Elko County.



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