Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 122158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND
DIFFERENT WAYS TO SAY THE SAME THING. RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER. INVERSIONS IN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS PREVENTING
MUCH WARM UP EVEN WITH FULL SUN. SNOW FREE VALLEYS WARMER, EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
SOME LOWER VALLEY RAINS AND HIGHER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS SNOWS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDER SWATH. DRY AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS MODEL IS
ABOUT NINE HOURS FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWS 40S TO LOW 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.
&&

$$

98/98/86


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