Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 251830
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1130 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NEVADA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...GIVEN RADAR TRENDS, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE, INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY. SOME STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
STRONG, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY FLOODING RAINFALL. SMALL HAIL AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR JACKPOT THIS HOUR.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 239 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DINKY LITTLE SHORT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO THIS MORNING
OVER NEVADA IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT. THE COLORADO
LOW WILL FILL AND DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE BC LOW TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE UTTERLY
DRIPPING. THERE IS MUD EVERYWHERE. EXPECTING THIS MICROLAYER RH TO
ENABLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT`S
GETTING HARD TO FIND NEW THINGS TO SAY IN INTERESTING WAYS.
OH...ONE ADDITION. WITH CLEARING SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN STREAM VALLEYS AND PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RECENT RAINS. TEMPS STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE
BEEN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL A LITTLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH AN H5 LOW NEAR THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER AND A TROF
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...ENABLING 700 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS TO DROP...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW TO IDAHO AND NE NEVADA...SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND THE RUBIES...IN ADDITION
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LKN CWA. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY IN MAY.  APPARENTLY...MAY CAME IN LIKE A LION AND WILL GO
OUT LIKE A LAMB.

AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE ASOS AT KEKO HAS MEASURED PRECIP 9 DAYS IN A ROW...KWMC
HAS MEASURED PRECIP 10 DAYS IN A ROW...KELY HAS MEASURED PRECIP 6
DAYS IN A ROW AND KTPH HAS MEASURED PRECIP 4 DAYS IN A ROW. EXPECT
THIS WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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