Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.