Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 202239
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NRN NV WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO 6500-7000 FEET NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7500 FEET WHERE 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL IN PLACES. SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING ACROSS ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NORTHEAST NV. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH UPPER RIDGE
TOWARDS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
BRUSH FAR NORTHWEST NV WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GREAT BASIN WEDGED BETWEEN
A WEST COAST TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. KEPT
POPS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE PRECIP EAST TO THE SANTA ROSA MTS.
ECMWF MODEL HOWEVER KEEPS MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR
SE...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER WEST...WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL BRING THE TROUGH
AXIS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER EC AND GEM
MODELS BOTH SPLIT/STRETCH THE AXIS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH IN A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF PRECIP OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WENT WITH CLIMO POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALL MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH BRIEF DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND GEM BOTH BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




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