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000
FXUS65 KLKN 231604
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
904 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

SYNOPSIS...A PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. MANY VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WHITE PINE
COUNTY SO ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND UPDATED WINDS
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 10 AM IN
WHITE PINE COUNTY AND BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 611 AM /

UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE HEADLINES FROM ZONE AS HARD FREEZE
WARNING HAS EXPIRED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN WARMING UP OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...ON THE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY IN THE 60S. HIGHLY VARIABLE
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND LATE
CLOUDINESS OVER ELKO COUNTY. MANY LOCATIONS TOUCHED FREEZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 234 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLEARLY DEFINED COMMA SHAPED CLOUD FIELD WRAPPING AROUND CENTRAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER WASHINGTON STATE THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING OVER ELKO COUNTY AND SHOULD
DISSOLVE BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
DROPS. THE COLD AIR IS HERE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT MANY
LOCATIONS INDICATING MORE COLD AIR TO COME. WINNEMUCCA TOUCHED THE
FREEZING MARK BY 10 PM LAST EVENING THEN THE PROJECTED EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPED TO BRING TEMPERATURE AT WMC BACK INTO THE 40S JUST
AS RAPIDLY. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEVADA...CEILINGS AROUND 9K FT AGL. THE GFS MODEL HAS AN
EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE TWO AREAS. INCOMING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS COULD INTERRUPT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE WIDESPREAD IN THE 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CURRENT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WILL NOT ISSUE A NEW FREEZE PRODUCT THIS
MORNING TO AVOID CONFUSION...BETTER TO HAVE TOTAL EVALUATION OF
THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS WELL. H7 TEMPS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE HAS MODIFIED AS
EXPECTED TO THE TUNE OF -9 DEGREES C.

THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
TODAY AS A 110 KT JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WINDS APPEAR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCANT WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DRYING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. NOT CONVINCED THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY...INCHING UP TO AROUND
70 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED H5 PACIFIC LOW HOVERING OVER ALBERTA AND
WASHINGTON WITH A TROF EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...THE
THREE BEST DEFINED IN CENTRAL NV...NORTHERN CA AND WASHINGTON STATE.
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AXIS STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SILVER
STATE BORDER AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STARTED TO BUMP UP
THE POPS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...EXPECT THE WEST TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE EXTENDED
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500MB. SENSIBLE
WEATHER-WISE GENERALLY EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LKN CWA.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE BASE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO IGNITE CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT QPF NOT EXPECTED...LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS A POTENT
VORT LOBE SOUTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND H5 CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NV...AND MERITED RAMPING
UP THE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS ALSO
PINGS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW...ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. EITHER
TRACK...SUGGESTS A MORE EFFICIENT CONDUIT OF A PACIFIC MOISTURE
FETCH INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. A PACIFIC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING SOME
UPPER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A SLIVER OF THE JET WILL PUSH ACROSS
RENO AND TO JACKPOT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE AT KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER...TODAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW PASSES OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL
NEVADA WILL BE DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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