Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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780
FXUS65 KLKN 200948
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
248 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
through midweek across portions of the state as monsoon moisture
remains over southern and central Nevada. Significant rainfall is
not expected. Monsoon moisture along with Showers and
thunderstorms will move northward across northern Nevada Tuesday
and Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Closed upper-low off the Coast
of CA will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into
central Nevada. However, models are holding off on a faster push
into northern Nevada until Tuesday. A progressively drier monsoon
event is also appearing more likely with PWATs struggling to reach
0.80" through Monday. Convective pattern will be similar to
yesterday with a swath of afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Humboldt-Toiyabe in central Nevada to the
Ruby mountains into the Wendover area while largely staying
southeast of the Ruby mountains. Models are indicating less
activity on Monday with much of the instability and moisture
residing farther south across northern Nye county into Lander
county. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs with the mid 50s expected for overnight lows.

Cloud cover for the eclipse viewing will not be optimal in some
parts of the state. A band of mid to high level cloud cover is
expected across the ID/NV border but should be eroding through
the morning hours. Southern and central Nevada are expected to
have more cloud cover where deeper monsoon moisture is present
over northern Nye and southern White Pine counties.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Sunday. Only minor changes to
the extended forecast were made. Confidence is moderate to high
for placement of synoptic features with a closed low off the
southern Cali coast. This will pull moisture northward into the
Great Basin from early next week into the middle portions of the
week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm are likely across central
nevada Tue and Wed with at least isolated across northern Nevada.
By Thursday and Friday, trof moves onshore from the Pac NW and
brushes across the area. This will increase flow and help push any
lingering moisture east of the Great Basin. Confidence in the
trof placement and weather impacts remain marginal at this time,
but has risen slightly from last night`s forecast. Models seem to
agree a little better with timing and strength of the trof.

Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the best chances for
convection across the Silver State. Given the placement of closed
low off the Cali coast, moisture/instability, and flow/shear, some
potential exists for an active early to middle portion of next
week. At this time, there is a least some threat for a few strong
storms and isolated flash flooding. Any flash flooding should be
localized, with the best chances across any recent burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR likely at all TAF sites through next 24-hrs.
There is a slight chance of brief restrictions at KEKO during the
aftn hours with any TS. There will likely be VCTS with gusty
outflow winds from variable directions. KWMC should stay dry, but
could receive some aftn gusty outflow winds from the south or
southeast. KELY will have a chance at VCTS, but low chance of TS
at the airport. KTPH will remain dry with only some aftn cumulus
buildups.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry isolated showers/thunderstorms will
once again develop today across central into northeastern Nevada
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms move northward into fire
zones 467, 468, 469 and 470 Tuesday into Wednesday as monsoon
moisture pushes farther to the north. Some of the
showers/thunderstorms, especially Tuesday, will have the potential
to create flash flooding on or near burn scars but widespread
wetting rains are not anticipated.

RH recoveries will steadily improve over the next few nights
reaching into the 55-65% and in some locations 75% across the
state by Thursday morning. Critical daytime RH values in the
lower teens will exist today, improving somewhat Monday and more
so Tuesday reaching 20-30% Tuesday afternoon.

Southwest winds increase across Nevada as a Pacific trough moves
into the US interior later this week. However, minimum RHs will
still be rather high in the upper teens and lower 20s to create
critical fire weather conditions at this juncture.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

93/94/94/93



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