Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 272302
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD STORM SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
SILVER STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NV MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY CHILLY WITH ALL BUT THE WARMEST LOCALES REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR PICS SHOW NEXT
SHORT WAVE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HEADED ON A
SOUTHEASTERLY COURSE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF NV, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS WA/OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A REENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND CARVING OUT A
BROAD COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE VERY
LIMITED DUE TO THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM SO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WILL SEE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SUCH A LONG PERIOD IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN NV AND ONLY MID 20S IN THE WARMEST LOCALES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS COLD CONTINENTAL
AIR SPREADS IN FROM CANADA AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEASTERN NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES. GREAT BASIN
NATIONAL PARK MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF DRY SNOW. AS THE LOW
EJECTS EAST INTO ARIZONA THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...YET STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT
SNOW TO NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ECMWF NOT
BRINGING IT IN UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
TONIGHT...WHEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT KEKO.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96


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