Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270246
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...CORRECTED TYPO IN AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST BACK TO THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL 295-305K ISENTROPIC
SURFACES DEPICT INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.

WILL ADJUST TIMING OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM TRENDS AND ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

CURRENTLY... AS OF 3PM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LOWERS 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TRANSPORTING MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE NOTABLE EVENTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
INCLUDE THE WET WEEKEND AHEAD... THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK... AND THE POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND COUPLED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WILL MAKE FOR A WET WEEKEND FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM... COOLER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE NORMAL ON MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEW YEARS
EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A DISTURBANCE WITH
ORIGINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED
WITH THE COLD AIR THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN
SOME WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 10 HOURS OR
SO RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS BY SUNRISE...AND PREVAILING RAIN AT ALL
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
IFR LEVELS FOR BRIEF PERIODS BUT PREVAILING VIS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KT. METAR
ISSUES CONTINUE AT TUP....WILL NOT ISSUE ANY AMENDMENTS UNTIL
AFTER MAINTENANCE CAN REMEDY THE PROBLEM.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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