Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front will continue to push south through the Mid-South
tonight. Currently, the front stretches from Paducah, Kentucky to
Little Rock, Arkansas. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms
is beginning to develop along the front. Although, there is a gap
currently in the line from Little Rock northeastward to Pemiscot
County. I expect the line to fill in as the front pushes
southward into the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms
could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Lingering convection will occur during the overnight hours and
into Wednesday. However by Wednesday afternoon, clear skies and
drier air should begin filtering into the area behind the
departing front.

Tranquil weather conditions will occur over the Mid-South over the
rest of the week into much of the weekend as surface high
pressure will gradually shift from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio
Valley. As a result, northeasterly surface winds will keep the
drier air in place making conditions feel very pleasant with
highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Toward the end of the weekend into next week, all eyes will turn
toward the remnants of Harvey and what path it takes. It could
bring heavy rain into portions of the Mid-South. There is much uncertainty
regarding timing and rainfall amounts but it definitely bears




18Z TAFs

VFR will prevail for most of the afternoon. A cold front will
move through the region tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop and impact KJBR, KMKL and KMEM late this afternoon into
early this evening with gusty winds and occasional MVFR
conditions. Activity will probably weaken before reaching KTUP but
included TEMPO of mainly SHRA or TSRA toward morning. MVFR cigs
are likely behind the front at KJBR, KMKL and KMEM overnight. SW
winds at 6-10 kts expected today becoming light north overnight
and increasing from the NE Wednesday morning north of KTUP.




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