Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281605
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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