Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 060452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 8-10 KTS AT KMEM AND KTUP. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE KJBR/KMKL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 15Z...KJBR AND KMKL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS AS WELL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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