Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 834 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/


Updated to add patchy fog.


High pressure has settled over the Mid South this evening with
clearing skies and light winds expected. This should allow for
patchy fog later this evening and through sunrise as dewpoint
depressions shrink overnight. Low temperatures should drop into
the middle to upper 30s.

Updates have been sent in the latest forecast update.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

A progressive upper level pattern will prevail through the
upcoming week. With relatively good model agreement and interrun
consistency, few changes were made from earlier forecasts.

Upper level ridging will displace northwest flow aloft tonight.
With light surface winds and dissipating clouds, the dry airmass
should easily cool into the 30s, with some 20s not out of the
question over west TN. Low level return flow will likely commence
in the predawn hours west of the MS River. By midafternoon
Tuesday, gusty south winds should prevail at sub-advisory level
wind speeds along and west of the MS River.

Recent GFS/ECMWF model runs have maintained slight rain chances
south of I-40 Wednesday, ahead of a Pacific cold frontal passage.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through late week under
west/northwest flow aloft.

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models depict a deep longwave trof dropping
into the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Fairly significant midlevel
height falls may aid post frontal rain or snow showers Sunday
afternoon. It will feel a little more winter-like, with Sunday
afternoon wind chills in the 30s. The upper level longwave trof
will exit quickly, replaced by zonal flow and a return to seasonal
temps early next week.



06Z TAF Set

VFR through most of the period...with potential MVFR VSBY from
light fog around sunrise. Light and variable winds will slowly
increase from the east through south...with gusts developing at
JBR and MEM by early afternoon. 2kft winds will veer southwesterly
and increase to 45-50kts after 25/00Z creating wind shear at all
the TAF sites...and compression issues for MEM FEDEX traffic.




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