Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1030 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...15Z surface analysis places a quasi-stationary
boundary from northern Missouri back through eastern Kansas with
both a cold front and dry line located over the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle and New Mexico. Meanwhile, a surface ridge of high
pressure is centered over northern Florida this morning.

A combination of these two features is resulting in a deep plume
of low level moisture up into the Lower Mississippi Valley this
morning with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across many locations. As of 10 am CDT, temperatures across the
Mid-South are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Short term concerns
focus on convective development for the rest of today.

12Z Raob from KLZK indicates a capping inversion present between
800-775 mb. Short term model soundings indicate this capping
inversion should gradually weaken towards this
afternoon, resulting in the development of showers and
thunderstorms, especially along and west of the Mississippi River
as subtle mid level shortwave troughs move across the region.
Surface based CAPE values at or above 3000 J/kg, steep 700-500 mb
layer mid-level lapse rates above 7 C/km, 0-6 km Bulk Shear
values around 20 kts suggest convective mode will be pulse type
thunderstorms with damaging winds and perhaps large hail as the
severe thunderstorm threats along with a potential for localized
heavy rainfall.

Overall forecast is in good shape, but will make adjustments to
pops and any other elements to reflect current short term
convective trends.

Updated forecast will be available shortly.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

A surface high to the east and a surface low over the central
plains is providing a humid southerly flow to the Midsouth.
Morning status clouds are developing at this time and should cover
most of the area by daybreak.

The moist southerly flow at the surface will continue through
Saturday while the upper flow pattern at 500MB will be from the
southwest. A couple of shortwaves will enhance the chance of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight and again Friday night. The
highest chance for storms will be to the northwest with lower
chances to the southeast.

An upper ridge will become more established over the area Sunday
through the end of the forecast period. This will provide early
summerlike conditions with a warm and moist airmass and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each day.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

Decided to leave out any mention of precip at TUP. Confidence is
low on the development of convection at MEM...MKL...and JBR.
So far today...guidance has overdone convection across the
MidSouth...and from the look of sky conditions, radar and
satellite data...that shouldn`t change quickly. Tonight...as a
midlevel shortwave approaches...TS and SHRA will become more
likely. Included VCTS at JBR after 01Z and Tempo TSRA from 09-12Z.
Included VCSH at MEM after 03Z and at MKL with VCTS after 13Z.
Winds will remain southerly...10-15kt today...diminishing
overnight then restrengthening tomorrow.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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