Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 262318
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
618 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE
REGION...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FEW STORMS PULSING UP
TO STRONG INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW MOVEMENT HAS CAUSED SOME
TRAINING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTH OUT OF MISSISSIPPI.
PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DURING THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 35KTS
WILL WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15KTS AND BACK MORE EASTERLY...WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FOUND. A FEW STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S FOR MOST
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100F-104F RANGE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

JAB

Long-Term (Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper level ridging will build back into the Mid South from
the east by the middle of next week with deep easterly flow
continuing across much of the area. Moist low level conditions
will remain in place as a weak cold front undercuts the ridge
aloft and stalls across northern portions of the area. Slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
northern areas in association with this weak front. This front
should wash out by Wednesday but enough moisture will linger to
support isolated diurnal convection.

A stronger northern stream shortwave digging into the Northeast
U.S. will push another backdoor cold front into the forecast area
by the end of the week. There remains some inconsistencies among
the model guidance therefore will carry slight chance pops through
the end of the forecast period in association with the frontal
boundary.

Temperatures should be seasonably hot with summer time humidity
continuing through the extended forecast period. Upper ridging may
build by next holiday weekend with a trend towards drier and
hotter conditions.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAF Set

Convection should continue to weaken and diminish in coverage this
evening as instability weakens and the shortwave lifts north of
the sites. Skies should clear out later this evening. The clearing
skies...light winds...and high moisture levels should promote
favorable radiation fog conditions after midnight at most sites
with MVFR to IFR vsby reductions through sunrise.

Morning fog should mix out fairly quickly with a return to VFR
conditions and light winds for the remainder of Saturday morning
through the end of the forecast period.

Prevailing wind should be from the Southeast tomorrow...generally
5-8kt.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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