Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 162345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND STRETCH FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY
HANG ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE MODELS SHOW
LIGHT OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS
INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE MAV NUMBERS TONIGHT DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WHICH WILL START INCHING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD OVER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL/NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STALLED SURFACE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS LOOK GOOD.
CONTINUED POPS INTO THURSDAY THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FALLING APART THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. MAV
NUMBERS SEEM TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SO WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MET/EURO GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH WARMER TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

EXTENDED...12Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WELL TOO THE WEST AND THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RESULT IS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LESS
RAINFALL. TREND STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MVFR
CLOUDS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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