Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 300534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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