Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 292005
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A mix of seasons across the Midsouth this afternoon...with mostly
cloudy skies and cool temperatures in 50s/60s across the northeast
counties...while the south and west is enjoying sunnier skies and
readings in the 70s. Winds are brisk from the north with the
highest gusts near 25mph in the Delta. A few very light showers
were rotating south out of western Kentucky on radar.

Today through Saturday...models have a strong handle on the upper
level low in the mid Ohio valley...with it forecasted to
meander/wobble perhaps 100 miles from its current location the
next 36 hours before slowly filling and drifting north to the
Great Lakes. For the Midsouth cyclonic flow around the low will
keep skies mostly cloudy in the north and east with a threat for
isolated showers. More pleasant Fall weather is expected over the
south and west. Have kept temperatures below seasonal normals in
the north with near normal...to slightly above normal elsewhere.

Sunday through Tuesday...upper level ridging residing in the
Plains will slide into the Mississippi Valley this period as the
upper low further decays and lifts into New England. Bottom line
dry weather is expected for the Midsouth. Temperatures starting
around five degrees above average on Sunday will warm to around
ten above average by Tuesday. Afternoon RH`s will drop below 30
percent contributing to potential fire weather headlines/concerns.

Middle of next week...the GFS and ECMWF both signal the next major
shortwave/closed low to cross the Rockies...and a tropical system
somewhere along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Models differ with both
the track and the strength of both features. With regards to the
approaching trough the ECMWF has a deeper central height...a
plume of near 70F dewpoints surging north and greater QPF for the
Midsouth. The GFS is slower with the energy...not as deep with the
central height but is farther south. In addition the boundary
layer moisture return is considerably less with the GFS. For now
have placed slight pops in the forecast beginning Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday for areas along and west of the
Mississippi River. Above normal temperatures will continue.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18z TAF

MVFR cigs associated with an upper low over the northern Tennessee
Valley continue to advance southward. These cigs should mainly
impact KMKL and potentially KJBR this afternoon. Elsewhere...VFR
conditions will persist. Cloud cover should lift back to VFR
areawide this evening with the potential for MVFR cigs
redeveloping later tonight...with the greatest potential east.

Winds will remain brisk with high gusts from the north this
afternoon. These northerly winds should diminish overnight and
remain below 7 kts through Friday 18z.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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