Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 191104
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
504 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
.DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
Midlevel clouds associated with a departing upper level low
quickly dissipated early this morning. A weak low level pressure
gradient and moist ground has led to favorable radiational ground
fog formation. A Dense Fog Advisory issued shortly after midnight
may need additional aerial expansion through the early morning.
Otherwise, an amplified upper level ridge axis will move over the
Midsouth today, with temperatures warming to readings 15 to 20
degrees above normal. The upper ridge lift to Appalachia by
Monday, as a phased northern branch and southern branch upper trof
approaches from the plains. Monday`s temps will continue well
above normal, accompanied by increased winds and high clouds.
The phased northern and southern branch upper trof will lift into
the Midsouth on Tuesday, returning rain chances early in the day.
North MS will likely see best potential for thunder, near an
inverted low pressure trof and more favorable diffluence aloft.
Looking toward our next rain chances Friday, a deep northern
branch upper low will track from the central plains to upper MS
River alley. While the Midsouth will remain well-removed from the
track of this upper low, a modestly unstable warm sector and
decent midlevel height falls should be sufficient for a scattered
to broken line of storms by late morning Friday. ECMWF depicted a
140KT 250mb jet core over the Red River valley Friday afternoon,
with a divergent left exit region lifting from the Ozarks into the
western Ohio River valley. Areas north of I-40 will likely see
the best chances of storms on Friday.
Following a rare day with near normal temps on Saturday, next
Sunday will see warmer temps return in advance of another upper
level wave lifting out of the southern plains.
12Z TAF Set
Widespread dense fog has developed across the Mid-South. Expect
the dense fog to linger into the mid-late morning hours. KJBR
could linger through 18Z. Once fog begins to lift, expect
conditions to quickly return to VFR. Winds will remain light from
the east-southeast through the period. Cirrus should begin to move
into the area after 00Z which should hinder fog development
tonight. Although, would not be surprised to see KMKL or KTUP
briefly see reduced VSBYS overnight. For now, have left mention
out of new TAF set.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Clay-
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Dunklin-
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Alcorn-Benton
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Benton TN-