Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 050355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

UPDATE...

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING
BEFORE SUNSET HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WHAT ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100
DEGREES AT TIMES BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SOME
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY.

BY NEXT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN ENDING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE END OF THE RAIN...COOLER AND
DRIER AND WILL START TO MOVE IN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER PLEASANT BY NEXT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KMKL WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
05/08Z-05/12Z. ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT AFTN...MAINLY
KMKL-KTUP EAST...BUT LIKELIHOOD IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS LOW.
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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