Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 262059
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW IS TAKING PLACE 800-900 MILES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHERE A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD IS
BEGINNING ITS ASSAULT ON THE NORTHEASTERN US. IN THE MIDSOUTH
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE PALATABLE FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AAND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 30S. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A 25-35
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. IF WE
ARE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT GET MY HOPES UP FOR SNOW IN A FORECAST
BEYOND JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. CHANCES ARE...GUIDANCE WILL TREND
DRIER...WARMER...OR SHIFT MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.