Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 272327 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
527 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE
TRENDS PLACE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CST RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-40 AND 30S SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR A PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND AND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EVENING
SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST IF SHORT
TERM TRENDS NECESSITATE ANY CHANGES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-40...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40 BUT CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW AND THINK A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY EXIST AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS
LOW UNTIL THIS PERIOD BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 2315Z GOES IR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR. KLZK/KNQA RADARS SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS...
WITH PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH METARS CONFIRMED.

NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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