Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 270827
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet wx conditions were observed early this morning across Mid TN.
Temps were mostly in the mid 60s with partlyto mostly cloudy skies.
Watch for patchy fog, especially northwest counties where
significant rain fell with showers and storms yesterday.

The large scale pattern continues to feature a trough over the
Rockies and High Plains, a ridge off the east coast, and a very
amplified southerly flow in between. The axis of deepest moisture
will remain to our west today, over the MS Valley. Once again Mid
TN will have scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the
heat of the afternoon. No MCSs are headed our way at this time,
and models show less instability for much of the area, so we are
not expecting the total coverage that our northwest counties had
yesterday. Our Plateau and southeast counties did not have much
thunderstorm activity yesterday, and their chances for rain look
a little greater today with a weak wave coming up from the
southeast. So, pops today will be around 20 percent for BNA and a
bit higher to the west and east, up to 40 percent for the Plateau
and along the Tn River. A brief strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out, but no organized severe wx is expected.

The chance for showers and storms will increase tonight into
Saturday as the axis of moisture and lift from the Ms Valley lifts
and stretches northeastward. Pops will be around 50 percent for
most of the area Saturday. The showers with extensive cloud cover
will limit temperatures to mustily lower 80s Saturday. Again, a
brief strong storm cannot be ruled out, but we are not included in
any SPC risk areas.

For Sunday through Wednesday, summer wx is expected as upper level
ridging increases. Temperatures will be in the 60s at night, with
80s to near 90 for highs. This will be around 5 degrees above
normal for lows, and 5-10 degrees above normal highs. The ridge
will have enough weakness to allow some showers and storms to pop
up with daytime heating each day, but there do not appear to be
any significant fronts or other features to result in widespread
or organized thunderstorm activity. Pops will be 20-30 percent
each day.

Conditions look more unsettled late week with the approach of a
trough from the west. Thunderstorm chances will increase and high
temperatures will back off slightly by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions have settled into all 3 terminals at forecast time.
Some light MVFR fog is possible to reduce vis after 09Z however,
should the high clouds currently blanketing the mid-state thin or
clear out, more dense fog is likely, especially at KCKV.

Winds will be light to calm overnight, then a southerly breeze
will kick up again on Friday. Gusts of 15-18 kts will be possible
after 17Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  67  83  66  89 /  20  20  50  10  20
Clarksville    85  66  80  64  85 /  20  40  50  10  20
Crossville     82  64  79  62  82 /  30  20  40  20  40
Columbia       87  67  82  66  88 /  20  30  50  10  20
Lawrenceburg   87  67  83  65  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
Waverly        85  67  80  65  86 /  30  40  40  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........19



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