Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 021740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SO TRENDED MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. NEXT UPDATE MAY BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN A BIT MORE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO PUSHING BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY HELP KICK OFF STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT WILL
NEED SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT WE MAY
GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE TODAY...BUT MODELS ARE
QUICK TO FILL IT IN THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN FOR MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  82  67  80 /  70  60  50  60
CLARKSVILLE    67  81  67  80 /  40  60  40  60
CROSSVILLE     65  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  70
COLUMBIA       71  83  69  80 /  80  60  60  70
LAWRENCEBURG   71  81  68  79 /  80  60  60  70
WAVERLY        68  81  70  80 /  40  70  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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