Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 221023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
423 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017




Upper low will track across the northern Gulf today. Moisture within
the deformational zone does currently reside across KY as well as
scattered showers across the mid state. Latest Hrrr data shows a
brief increase in shower activity across the eastern half of the cwa
this morning, with scattered light showers elsewhere. Then, a
definitive decrease in coverage should commence by afternoon. Some
partial clearing will also be possible late today and into this
evening. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s
area wide.

The mild weather will continue through Friday as upper ridging sets
up just east of our area. At the sfc, winds will pick up in earnest
on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an
approaching frontal system. Wind speeds will easily reach the 15 to
25 mph range. Otw, high temperatures will be in the 70s on Thursday
and then close to 80 degrees on Friday. Low shower and tstm chances
chances will be included on Friday afternoon as the boundary
approaches. The better chance of tstms will be Friday evening as
phasing of the more linear omega fields and shear comes into play.
Could see some strong to severe activity, mainly northern half
during the evening hours.

In the ext fcst, the post frontal sector does bring in some colder
and more seasonal air. Also, there may be just enough upper dynamics
to produce a few showers during the day on Saturday. Highs will only
reach the 40s to lower 50s. Lows Sunday and Monday morning will be
in the 30s.

Warmer Tuesday with another mid week fropa expected. Thus, a chance
of showers and tstms will return for the last portion of the
extended period.



Light precip and vcnty MVFR cigs/vsbys expected to move east
thoughout today. Varying conditions however are expected in the
early part of the day. Low-level moisture does lag back and while
improvement is likely late today/early tonight...the return of
MVFR/IFR conditions very probably after 06z once again.





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