Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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615
FXUS64 KOHX 232337
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It`s another hot and muggy day today across Middle Tennessee as
some scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon giving
some lucky locations a nice break in the heat. With quite a bit of
high cloud cover today, many locations were able to keep a lid on
heat index values, with most at or below 105F degrees. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours although
short range models tend to dissipate convection by 8pm. But then
again, we all know how well these short range models have done
pinpointing convection lately. But I do think there will be
opportunities for these models to redeem themselves next week.
Keep reading.

Until then...there will be patchy fog again in the morning with
Sunday looking to be a carbon copy of today. Of course, there is a
lot of model disagreement in where storms develop and how much
coverage, but regardless, do think the potential is there that
Middle Tennessee will see more storms Sunday than today. With
that said, extended the Heat Advisory only for locations west of
Interstate 65 through Sunday at 8pm...mainly due to the fact that
the past two days have been borderline reaching criteria of 105F
heat index at best especially over the eastern areas.

The upper ridge finally shifts west allowing a slightly more
active pattern to develop over the area as several upper level
disturbances pass over the region. As a result, higher POPs are
expected resulting in High Temperatures being a few degrees lower.
Think the threat for any heat index values nearing 105F will end
on Sunday.

Thursday and Friday...as the work week progresses so will the
active weather pattern. Upper trough sets up over the eastern U.S.
as I mentioned yesterday. This will be the best shot for showers
and thunderstorms over the next 7 days as long range models
continue to be in fairly good agreement with this pattern change.
The good news is that with the extra cloud cover and
precipitation around, High Temperatures will likely stay in the
80s/lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable across the Mid-
State through the forecast period, along with a chance for
thunderstorms. Aside from a period of MVFR conditions late
tonight and early Friday at CKV and CSV, due to BR, expect VFR
conditions to prevail during the forecast period. Of course, if a
rogue thunderstorm happens to pass over a terminal a brief period
of MVFR/IFR may also ensue.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Bedford-Cannon-
Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-Giles-Jackson-Lawrence-Macon-Marshall-
Maury-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR Cheatham-Dickson-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Lewis-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Stewart-Wayne.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........19



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