Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 271132
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Looks like another hot and uncomfortable day coming up, with
temperatures topping out close to yesterday`s readings--which
means another round of lower and middle 90s west of the
Cumberland Plateau and maximum heat indices reaching to between
100 and 104 degrees. The Cumberland Plateau will also remain
plenty warm, with highs topping around around 90 degrees.

As cold front to our north keeps convection energized during the
day just to our northwest, expect patchy cirrus to continue
streaming southeastward across the Mid-State. Some of the cirrus
might be thick in some areas, but through at least early
afternoon, believe it will be sufficiently thin to allow for a
rapid warm-up. As a result, any increase in clouds by late
afternoon will likely come too late to offer any relief from the
heat.

Have trimmed highs back a degree or so from yesterday`s readings,
especially in the northwest and along the Cumberland Plateau, where
scattered afternoon showers, and associated cloudiness may help
out a bit.

Still expect a cold front to roll through tonight and Friday,
bringing along a swath of showers and thunderstorms with it. By
Friday afternoon, expect most of the showers and storms to be over
southern and eastern areas, with precipitation ending entirely,
from the northwest Friday night.

SPC continues to keep the Mid State in a marginal-to-slight risk
for severe storms Tonight and Friday, as the cold front moves
through, with the main impact being from damaging straight line
winds and torrential downpours.

Models continue to bring in a sprawling high pressure system from
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend, which will
finally bring a reprieve from all this oppressive heat and
humidity. Lows by Sunday morning will drop to the upper 50s and
lower 60s, with highs through the weekend mainly in the upper 70s
to middle 80s.

Temperatures creep back up next week and start to pick up at least
a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms by Tuesday. High
temperatures by next Wednesday will be back in the 85 to 90 degree
range, but still a good bit shy of the middle 90s we`ve been
suffering through as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A large MCS is ripping through eastern KS and
much of MO this morning, right along the surface boundary that
will begin affecting our weather later tonight. For today, though,
we`ll see some cirrus blowoff from the MCS, but conditions will
remain VFR until late this afternoon or evening. The HRRR does
bring some mainly light showers across Middle Tennessee during the
late afternoon and evening. We can expect stronger storms to
begin developing after 06Z tonight and continuing well past 12Z
Friday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08



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