Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
523 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018




Surface ridge has slipped east of Middle Tennessee, so the frozen
mid state is finally blessed with return southerly flow and a
rapid warming trend. It appears that the weekend will be dry in
addition to being warm. A shortwave passing to our south will
spread some additional cloudiness across the region on Saturday,
but any precipitation will remain confined to the Gulf Coast.
Highs on Saturday will top out around 50 degrees, and temperatures
will warm into the upper 50`s on Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. A deepening low pressure system will push through the
Great Plains on Sunday, setting up a warm front well to our north
and developing a cold front that will sweep through the mid state
on Monday. This progressive system is reminiscent of a springtime
pattern, although temperatures and dew points will be a few
degrees too low to support the sort of instability that could
produce widespread storms. At this time, we`ll probably leave
showers only in the forecast, although a few storms could develop
along the front. Cold advection behind the front won`t be
particularly strong. We`ll cool off a few degrees, but
temperatures the remainder of the week will remain at or above
seasonal normals. The GFS brings a subsequent system into Middle
Tennessee by the end of next week, but the ECMWF holds this off
until later in the weekend.



VFR flight rules for this TAF cycle as high pressure rules. Look
for an increase in cloudiness at the end of the cycle, though VFR
rules should persist.

Winds will be 10 mph or less out of the south.





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