Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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852
FXUS65 KPIH 251951
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
151 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Flow aloft has shifted to southwest as expected
across the area today. Shortwave slid across divide early today
with second feature moving through panhandle early this afternoon
per water vapor satellite imagery. Convection remains possible
this afternoon mainly along Divide region, and have kept very weak
PoP with mainly dry tstorm coverage across northern zones this
afternoon and evening. Models continue trend of increasing chances
across the same region Tuesday afternoon. Have increased PoP
across the area to scattered coverage, with eye toward fire
concerns. See discussion below. Another similar feature crosses
region on Wednesday but so far trend has been to keep
precipitation threat north of the state line. Remainder of
forecast area remains hot and dry through the end of the work
week. For the weekend, GFS and EC remain consistent with surge of
monsoonal moisture north through the Great Basin into SE Idaho
around four corners high ahead of trough moving through BC Canada
into Alberta. Have nudged PoP grids up around climo across the
region and expect those values to increase through the week if
trend remains in place. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...A weak wave over Northern Idaho will elevate winds very
slightly this afternoon as well as bring isolated thunderstorms
across the Eastern Central mountains and Island park region. Yet
another wave will move through Tuesday bringing breezy winds as well
as isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms for the Eastern Central
Mountains and Island park region. Wyatt


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak wave over Northern Idaho will elevate winds
very slightly this afternoon as well as bring isolated thunderstorms
across the Eastern Central mountains and Island park region. Expect
Isolated to Widely Scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into
early evening for the Northern Central mountains and Upper Snake
Highlands as a slightly stronger wave moves through. Have issued a
Fire Weather Watch for thunderstorms for zones 475 and 476 and zone
411...north of the Falls river in the Caribou/Targhee National
Forest. There is still some discrepancy between models on
thunderstorm coverage for Tuesday. The Nam12 model still continues
to show more thunderstorm coverage than the GFS model. Will let the
Midnight shift make the final call on the need for a Red flag after
the 00z model run comes in.

A disturbance/wave passing over Southern Canada late Wednesday into
Thursday will bring breezy to moderate winds again, mainly over the
Central mountains and Snake river plain. However, these winds will
be mostly below Red Flag criteria.

For the weekend, models continue to show monsoon moisture moving
Northward into our area ahead of a strong trough. The sub-tropical
moisture will help bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday as well as gusty winds particularly Sunday. The
combination of thunderstorms and gusty winds will bring greater fire
activity across the area. As models come in more agreement, we will
narrow down the timing...location and intensity of impacts. Wyatt


&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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