Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 011918
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
118 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND MAY
NOT BECOME LIGHT UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING A TOUGH MIN
TEMP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING. CONCERNED THAT WINDS WILL STAY
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING ALTHOUGH THINK
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN
PLACE OF THE FREEZE WATCH. WITH THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS THINK
THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN PLACE TOMORROW
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MAY STAND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY...RELEGATING THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CREST THE RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND TRANSITIONING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO A ZONAL FLOW REGIME. AS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE GLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE
REMAINS SPARSE...THEREFORE A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WAS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AD

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE VALLEY AIRDROMES. GUSTY WIND EXPECTED UNTIL THE
MID-EVENING PERIOD. NO CIG OR VSBY PROBLEM EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT KSUN WILL BE BREEZY FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOTE TO OUR CUSTOMERS...THE FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM
WILL BE REDUCED FROM TWO FORECASTS PER DAY TO ONE PLANNING FORECAST
ISSUED IN THE MORNING STARTING OCTOBER 1. LAST OF SHORTWAVES DROPS
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND COASTAL STATES. SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$




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