Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 212008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Sunny dry conditions continue tonight for Eclipse
exodus. Moisture continues to slide north through Great Basin
Tuesday, and could extend into southern portions of the state by
afternoon. Have kept weak pops along the UT border. Better
conditions exist Wednesday with deeper moisture across the region
and help from shortwave ejecting out of CA/NV. Threat continues
into Thursday as stronger shortwave shifts through OR/WA into
Idaho panhandle, associated with deeper trough sliding east
through Canada. Passage of larger trough axis and cold front
Thursday night shifts moisture east of the region. Could see a few
lingering storms into Friday along post frontal trough, but much
of the region trends toward drier conditions. Upper ridge builds
Saturday through the remainder of the forecast period. Trend will
be for drier and warmer conditions for the weekend into early next
week. DMH


.AVIATION...Upper ridging will keep VFR conditions across all
terminals this period. The stream of monsoon moisture will remain
just to our south, so no precip is expected. Only concern will be
smoke from area wildfires reducing visibility, but there is no
evidence this will significantly impact the terminals through the
period. Hinsberger


.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms are back in the forecast on Wednesday.
Monsoon moisture will stream back into the area as upper ridging
shifts to the east. The initial surge of moisture should arrive
Tuesday night, but scattered thunderstorms will kick off as a
shortwave lifts across the area Wednesday afternoon. This period
would support critical fire conditions, but will have better
confidence after the morning forecast is made early tomorrow. These
storms will likely produce strong outflow winds. Humidity will
recover on Thursday, even as winds increase in the afternoon.



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