Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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002
FXUS65 KPIH 280839
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight. A few folks are probably waking
up to thunder, rain and wind to blow around the garbage cans. As
moisture and next wave drops southeast out of Canada into the
Northern Rockies, this trend of showers and thunderstorms will
remain. Stronger storms will likely initiate later today coming
off the central mountains moving into the Snake Plain, with
additional strong storms along and east of I-15 into this
evening. Gusty winds and hail are possible again along with
locally heavy rain. Parameters for isolated severe storms are
there again, but perhaps just a tad bit off from yesterday. SPC
has the highest potential around Island Park again, but we
wouldn`t be shocked if a severe storm or two developed elsewhere
this afternoon. By tonight, activity will dwindle isolated
showers over the central mountains and the Upper Snake Plain and
Highlands. Similar to yesterday, outside of thunderstorms the
overall pattern is conducive to breezy conditions. Sustained winds
of 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph are forecast. We were close to
Lake Wind conditions on American Falls Reservoir and we should be
just high enough to be over the hump for that, so we are issuing a
LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls Reservoir for this afternoon
until sunset. Our midweek cooldown continues with 70s/near 80 in
the valleys and 50s/60s for the backcountry. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Wednesday. As that wave keeps
dropping southeast through tomorrow, a few showers and storms are
possible around Island Park. Otherwise, it`s dry and we will be
dry everywhere through Saturday morning. A fast moving storm will
kick off isolated storms over the central mountains and Upper
Snake Highlands in the afternoon and evening hours. After that,
we`re back to dry and warmer heading into the Fourth of July. It
will be breezy each day into early next week as well. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...Embedded short-wave feature rotating into the
base of a Canadian trough early this morning with attending
nocturnal convection advancing through SE Idaho. Numerical models
show additional thunderstorm activity sweeping through the CNTRL
mountains late this morning and into the Island Park region by
around noon with trailing convection firing across the SE mountains
later in the afternoon. For now, KSUN may be impacted with the first
wave late this morning with KIDA and KDIJ this afternoon and early
evening. Main impact here will be gusty outflow winds with
thunderstorms near terminals with perhaps a slight chance of
temporary MVFR VIS/CIG restrictions if a cell happens to pass
directly over the terminal. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure trough will sweep through the region
today along with an ill defined surface front and scattered
thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms are expected to impact primarily
the CNTRL and NE mountains early today and then perhaps the SE
mountains later this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected throughout
SE Idaho this afternoon however the only place with low enough
humidity to support a Red Flag is zone 425 (Shoshone area). We will
also highlight the gusty winds in the remaining zones. Temperatures
bottom out Thursday and begin to warm through the weekend and early
next week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. One
passing system may bring a threat of thunderstorms and breezy
conditions to SE Idaho Saturday afternoon/eve otherwise mostly dry
conditions should prevail. Huston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Additional light to moderate precipitation from
yesterday and today as well as very warm temperatures from yesterday
will help keep flows elevated if not slightly increasing by
tomorrow. However, cooler temperatures today and tomorrow will help
decrease flows by Friday and Saturday. For those areas with
remaining high elevation snow, which is the Central Mountains, Big
Lost and the Tetons, they will see increase flows next week after a
return of very warm temperatures this weekend into next week. Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ425.

Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ021.

&&

$$



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