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000
FXUS65 KTWC 112110
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON INTO THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LOW THAT MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY. THERE WERE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS RUNNING
ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF ARIZONA BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRY ELSEWHERE. THE
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION ON THE WIND
FORECAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
SOME MINOR COOLING IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL INCREASING AFT 12/06Z. SURFACE WIND THRU DUSK WLY/NWLY
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. NW WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS
G25-30 KTS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY VICINITY OF KSAD. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE ESE AFT 12/12Z. EXPECT WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH G20-30KTS 12/15Z THRU WED AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WNW BREEZES OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME ESE
TOWARD WED MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO AZ FROM NEW
MEXICO. ESE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT INCREASED HUMIDITIES
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FROM BEING REACHED WED
AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSING NRN AZ THURSDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE APPROACHED BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY BUT BOTH WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  NW AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE FORECAST AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

THE THURSDAY SYSTEM COULD ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN SE
AZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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