Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with milder temperatures and gusty winds
at times will prevail into early next week. Expect another chance of
showers and cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery this morning showed yesterdays
upper low that moved through the state was over SE CO. Wrap around
moisture was across east-central Arizona this morning with a few
flurries possible until sunrise across Northern Greenlee county.
Elsewhere it was clear with chilly overnight lows occurring area
wide. There were isolated areas that were in the 30-32 degrees

For today, short wave ridge will build over the area resulting in a
nice rebound in temperatures after yesterdays brief cool down from
what had occurred in the previous two weeks. Highs today will be
right around normal for the later part of March. Gusty NW winds
likely in NW-SE oriented valleys, especially E of Tucson.

Warmer on Saturday even as the tail end of an upper level trof moves
across northern Arizona. Slightly cooler Sunday under NW flow aloft.

The temperature yo-yo continues Monday with highs similar to what is
forecast on Saturday. Another Pacific system is forecast to move
into the state on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds
and a slight chance of showers. Some ensemble members are showing a
deeper system versus progressive 00z GFS/ECMWF. Ensembles also
suggesting that unsettled conditions to continue into Thursday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
Isolated --SHSN White Mountains NE of KSAD thru 24/15Z. Otherwise,
SKC or a FEW clouds above 20k ft AGL elsewhere. Surface wind mainly
less than 12 kts except nwly 12-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts this
afternoon east of KTUS and particularly near KSAD. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with gusty winds at times will
prevail into early next week. A storm system will bring a chance of
showers and cooler temperatures around the middle of next week.





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