Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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