Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261621
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING AS CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW HARD FREEZE LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING
TREND RAISES TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WEEK. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AT THIS TIME WEST TO NORTH OF
TUCSON. MEANWHILE...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WERE ONGOING
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.
540 DM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL FILL AND LIFT
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE MEAN MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NW OF THIS FORECAST THRU TONIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. ONLY
MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON TODAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. A FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR WRN PIMA COUNTY...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION...AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU TUE.
THEREAFTER...THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ WED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THUR. THUS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EXISTS WED FOLLOWED BY CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY NEW YEARS DAY. EXPECT LOWER SNOW
LEVELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW VERSUS THE MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND SAT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUN-TUE. SOME MINOR COOLING IF FORECAST TO OCCUR WED...
THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR NEXT THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
A FEW -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
TODAY. OTHERWISE...KTUS VICINITY WWD/NWD CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS TODAY...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
AT 4-8K FT AGL...THEN CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K
FT AGL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS
TODAY WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY NEW YEARS DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY
      FOR AZZ504-506.

    FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY
      FOR AZZ501-502-505.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS




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