Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THE
REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WERE AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

BASED ON THE 02/00Z NAM12 AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU DAYBREAK WED. GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL BE ON TAP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE 01/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 02/00Z NAM12 IS REALITY. HIGH TEMPS WED
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. EVEN COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THUR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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