Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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782
FXUS65 KTWC 111552
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE 11/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD VALUES AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDINGNWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY THISMORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA



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