Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260311
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
810 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU EARLY WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COVER A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THAT
MANAGED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR
WAS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF WILLCOX
AS OF LATE THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS
PICKED UP ON THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SHOWED THEM HANGING AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST TRENDS STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AROUND 10K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY-NWLY 12-18 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO 20S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TUESDAY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO KEEP SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DON`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OUT OF THIS...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE
CONTINUED THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS
BEST MOISTURE EXISTS THERE. EVEN THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BE
PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND USHERS
IN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

BY MID WEEK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES IN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK UP...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...WEDNESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WIND IS
PROGGED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE AREA.

&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PREV DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








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