Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
229 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT CAN
BE ANTICIPATED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTED A LIGHT FREEZE
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
METRO AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CAUSE AN EASTERLY
BREEZE THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT IN UNSHELTERED
SPOTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS. AT ANY
RATE...WILL SWITCH THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME.  NW WINDS 8-12 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AFT 25/02Z THEN
BECOMING NE TO E TO 10 KTS AFT 25/08Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASING TUESDAY.  LOW LEVEL 5-15 MPH
EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MODERATING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  DRY...MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO
SATURDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT INTO
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ504 INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

$$

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