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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY QUIET JULY DAY...04Z IR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SCT-BKN SKIES OVER MUCH OF COCHISE...GREENLEE...GRAHAM...AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COOLEST CLOUD TOPS WERE IN
EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG IN THE FORM OF
SOME REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NRN
SONORA MEXICO. AREA TEMPS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 90S IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND
40S EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SPOTS WERE A
BIT MORE MOIST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR WAS TRYING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SERN COCHISE CNTY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...LIKELY
HITTING ON THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE TWO
LOCAL WRF MODELS REMAINED DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. AS SUCH...HAVE CHOSEN
TO LEAVE IN ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THAT AREA...AS WE ARE LIKELY
TOO STABLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WRN
PORTIONS FILLING IN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS AS WE CLOSE IN
ON DAYBREAK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT
AGL EAST TO SOUTH OF KTUS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STARTING TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4
INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE FROM TUCSON TOWARD
AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN
THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND
DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH
MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS