Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 AM MST Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect strong and gusty winds today as a weather system
moves north of the area. This system may also bring a few showers
and thunderstorms to the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions
will prevail through Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will return
Friday into Saturday along with a chance of showers east of Tucson.
Cooler Saturday followed by dry conditions with a warming trend
early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Windy day across southeast Arizona will result
in various advisory and warning products to be in effect later today
into early this evening. The wind advisory and Red Flag warning area
were expanded further west. Hoisted Blowing Dust advisory for the
dust prone areas of NE Cochise county. The storm system responsible
for the wind, which is moving through the Great Basin, will also
bring a slight chance showers or thunderstorms to the White
Mountains this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be 4-10
degrees cooler than Monday.

Gradient relaxes on Wednesday for much less wind with highs at or
slightly warmer than today. Dry NW flow aloft will continue across
the area on Thursday with highs being 2-6 degrees warmer than Wed.

Wind kicking up into the breezy category on Thursday with strongest
wind speeds east of Tucson, especially in NW to SE oriented valleys.

Stronger winds area wide on Friday as upper level trof strengthens
over the intermountain west. This system will bring a chance of
showers or thunderstorms NE of Tucson. Highs a few degrees cooler
than Thursday.

Much cooler with continued gusty winds on Saturday as upper level
trof axis starts to move into New Mexico. Enough moisture around
across the eastern areas for a continued slight chance of showers
and high elevation snow showers.

A few spots in the normally cold spots east and south of Tucson will
be near freezing Saturday morning and once again Sunday morning.

Dry and warmer Sunday and Monday with gusty winds returning to the
area next Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
Main aviation concern during the valid pd will be with wind as a
storm system approaches the area. S-SW SFC wind 5-15 kts with lclzd
gusts to 25 kts thru 25/16z then SFC wind bcmg W-SW 15-25 kts with
gusts up to 35 kts. SFC wind diminishing to less than 10 kts after
26/03z with direction terrain driven.

On the cloud cover side, expect SCT-BKN clouds abv 15k ft AGL to
prevail thru 26/04z. There will be FEW-SCT clouds around 10k-14k ft
AGL btwn 25/19z and 26/00z. Expect clearing skies from W to E after
26/04z. There will be FEW/SCT -TSRA/-SHRA across the White Mountains
NE of KSAD btwn 25/21z and 26/02z.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 11 AM to 8
PM MST Tuesday for the southeastern half of fire weather zone 152.
Further west a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM
for mainly the northern portions of fire weather zone 150 and 151.
The combination of strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and
a high fire danger will create critical fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions should occur again Friday across a
fairly large portion of southeast Arizona. Field crews are strongly
encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts for additional Fire
Weather Watch and/or Red Flag Warning issuances.

Otherwise, dry conditions through Thursday except for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White Mountains
Tuesday. There is a chance of showers across the White Mountains
Friday, then a chance of showers east of Tucson Friday night into
Saturday. Cooler temperatures will occur Saturday followed by dry
conditions with a warming trend Sunday into next Monday.


  Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for

  Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
   evening for AZZ508.

  Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
   for AZZ152.

  Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening
   for AZZ150-151.



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