310
FXUS64 KEPZ 181742
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1142 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Hot, dry, and breezy will be the theme through the weekend and
into next week as a quiet weather pattern settles in across the
region. The hottest temperatures will be today through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy
afternoon winds and warming temperatures through the weekend and
into next week.

Broad ridge overhead will slowly progress eastward through the short
term period with continued warming temperatures on Saturday.
Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s on Saturday across the
desert lowlands with light breezes and mostly clear skies. By
Sunday, a broad upper level trough over the PacNW will push the
upper level ridge east of the area, with deep southwest flow
overspreading the Desert SW. Weak surface trough across New Mexico,
along with deep afternoon mixing will promote breezy surface winds
across the area. Winds will range from 15 to 20 mph with higher
gusts up to 30 mph, generally out of the west to southwest.
Temperatures on Sunday remain similar to today`s temperatures,
possible increasing a degree or two topping out in the mid to upper
90s.

For the start of next week, deep southwest flow will remain overhead
on Monday with the continuation of breezy winds. Dry air with mostly
clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again, hot by middle
to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7 degrees above the
seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place on Tuesday with
continued above average warmth.

Flow aloft flattens out for the second half of the week. This means
continued very dry conditions, light afternoon breezes, plenty of
sunshine, and temperatures remaining above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours with
southwest to westerly afternoon breezes becoming AOB 10KT after
03Z. Generally SKC over the entire area with the exception of some
fair weather cumulus and perhaps FEW250 could be seen at KTCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED through most of the period,
with CRITICAL fire weather conditions expected on Monday and
Tuesday. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in place across
the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each afternoon for almost
all locations, slightly higher for the higher terrain. Temperatures
through the weekend will be 3-7 degrees above the seasonal average
with breezy afternoon winds.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all SW and south-central NM
fire weather zones. Min RH values will tank into single digits for
the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento
Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing
and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy
conditions on Monday. Winds will range from 20-30 mph with higher
gusts possible, generally out of the W/SW. Critically dry conditions
and breezy winds will continue on Tuesday.

With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming
temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will
quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase
into the 90-97th percentile through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  63  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               95  62  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               92  60  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               69  49  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    92  60  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              83  54  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  57  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                90  56  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       93  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                96  58  96  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  61 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               87  63  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   96  63  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             92  60  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           93  69  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            92  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    95  57  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  63  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                92  61  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                80  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 79  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  84  52  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                90  57  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                92  55  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             84  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   87  52  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    90  55  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  87  55  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   92  55  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  92  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           92  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               85  56  87  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher