Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212017
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue throughout the week
with plenty of sun and temperatures warming back above normal. A
couple of Pacific storm systems move in for the latter part of the
week, bringing strong winds, blowing dust and not much else.
Strong winds begin each day from Thursday through Sunday, with
considerable blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Dryline/cold front has pushed west across entire CWA, with brisk
east winds continuing across much of the area. Thus some low
clouds/fog will continue tonight along east slopes of the Sac
Mtns. Satellite does show very slow eastward erosion of the those
clouds and HRRR does show this retreat also, with the low clouds
then returning to the east slopes late tonight. Elsewhere, weak
shortwave in sub-tropical jet over the Baja will spread some
mid/high clouds to the area tonight into Monday morning. This
feature could bring a stray shower to Hudspeth County Monday, but
will leave out of grids for now. Surface winds turn
south/southwest Monday which should flush the last of the
stratus/fog off the east slopes of the Sacs.
Dry southwest flow dominates the area into the weekend. Main
impact comes at the end of the work week as a couple of Pacific
storms move across the area. First storm moves in Thursday across
the Four Corners and southern Colorado; much too far north for any
showers, but this will increase winds Thursday afternoon. Winds
look to remain under advisory criteria, but will bring fire
conditions up to or exceeding Red Flag criteria. Friday is a
tweener day as it will sit in between the exiting low and a new
low coming in from the west. Still breezy Friday but should
(hopefully) drop back below Red Flag conditions. Next storm moves
across well north of the area but again increases winds for both
Saturday and Sunday. Thus, expect Red Flag conditions again both
these days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Generally VFR conditions with SCT250. SCT-BKN080, mainly over the
mountains. Additionally...along the east slopes of the Sacramento
and Guadalupe Mtns...BKN-OVC015 patchy 3SM BR. Clouds continuing
to slowly erode away. Surface winds east/southeast 10-15G23 knots.
Winds slowly diminishing this evening to 7-10 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
The latter half of the week looks to be quite impactful with gusty
winds and critical fire conditions developing. Warming
temperatures the first half of the week will slowly dry fuels out,
while Pacific storms moving north of the area will produce strong
winds Thursday through Sunday. Red Flag conditions possible
Thursday before a brief respite in the strong winds Friday.
However the strong winds return for Saturday and Sunday, likely
bringing back Red Flag conditions. Temperatures will remain above
normal.
Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% Monday, decreasing to 8-12% Tuesday into
the weekend. Mountains 25-35% Monday, decreasing to 10-20% Tuesday
into the weekend. Vent rates good-very good Monday then excellent
Tuesday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 51 83 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 43 76 53 84 / 0 10 0 0
Las Cruces 47 82 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 43 79 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 32 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 49 80 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 44 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 46 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 50 81 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 40 81 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 45 83 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 42 75 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 48 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 46 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 48 80 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 42 80 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 49 81 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 44 78 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 33 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 35 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 32 68 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 39 74 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 43 78 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 42 79 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 40 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 42 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 36 83 35 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 34 78 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 43 76 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 48 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 47 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 47 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 49 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner