701
FXUS64 KEPZ 160549
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1149 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Much of the area will have a chance for a shower or thunderstorm
for Thursday, but any precipitation will be light. Gusty winds and
small hail will be the main concerns. Starting Friday, we enter a
warming trend, peaking on Sunday. Winds will increase as well
Sunday going forward making for very warm to hot and breezy
afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

The weather pattern for our area features a closed low over the
Northern Baja Peninsula and an UL ridge across the Plains, to our
east. Some diffluence is noted on the GFS 500 mb analysis and is
marked by a cumulus field that extends across the Gila and
Sacramento Mountains into Albuquerque`s CWA. Radars are showing
some echos beneath these cumulus clouds. Low rain chances will
continue across these areas through sunset. Much of this activity
will then dissipate, but the HRRR is showing a few showers
lingering throughout the night into the morning, likely associated
with increasing divergence aloft as the low approaches. The low
will shift northeastward, crossing Central NM throughout the day
Thursday, keeping much of the CWA within favorable dynamics and
thermodynamics for instability showers and thunderstorms. The best
chance for activity will be roughly I-10 to the north and
especially the mountains. Looking at forecasting soundings and
severe weather parameters, there won`t be much CAPE, generally
less than 500 J/kg nor much shear, less than 20 knots.
Nevertheless, T-Td spreads 20-40 degrees with high bases and
DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg mean gusty winds up to 50 MPH will
be the primary concern, but I would not be surprised by a severe
caliber gust (58+ MPH) or two either. Given much of the CAPE is
within the ice-growing zone some small hail or graupel (<0.5")
will be possible as well.

Some lingering energy will stick around through Friday morning, so
rain/storm chances do not entirely end until then. We will see the
low/trough be replaced with a building ridge that will translate
eastward. Temperatures will warm each afternoon Friday through
Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, the ridge axis will be to our east
with deep SW-flow, allowing us to approach our first 100 degree
day at El Paso. Yesterday, both the GFS and Euro showed a trough
passing NM on Monday, but both models have slowed its passage.
The GFS is about 6-12 hours slower pushing the trough through
Monday night. Winds will would be breezy in this situation with
fire danger being the concern. The Euro is considerably slower,
pushing the trough through Tuesday morning, meaning Monday and
Tuesday would both be breezy but with marginal fire concerns. In
either case it will be dry and warm to very warm to hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Rather unsettled weather expected for the forecast period. SCT-
BKN120-180 persist through the night ahead of an approaching
disturbance. Isolated -SHRA may develop early in the AM for northern
areas, especially near KTCS which has a TEMPO group added from 9-
12z. Other TAF sites should stay dry until the afternoon. KTCS is
still most likely to see TSRA later in the day closer to the upper
trough. Confidence remains too low for any mention of TS at KELP or
KDMN, but model and radar trends will be monitored for TAF
amendments. Lower CIGs of BKN100 signal the threat of TS for all
terminals during the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are possible
with the convection. The activity dissipates around sunset with
lingering BKN150 to end the period. Breezy winds generally from W
are expected, shifting more northerly Thursday night. Gusts near
25kts are forecast for the PM hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

An upper-level system will move through the area throughout the
day on Thursday. It will bring an increase in moisture as well as
a bit cooler temperatures, especially across the northern half of
the forecast area and for the mountains. It will also bring at
least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially for
the mountains. Min RH values will still be on the low side, so dry
lightning and gusty winds are the main concerns with any stronger
cell. Small hail may also occur. This system clears out Friday,
and we enter a warm and dry pattern. Winds will begin to increase
for Sunday allowing elevated conditions. On Monday, winds
increase further with widespread near critical to critical
conditions expected. The magnitude of winds is a bit uncertain,
but confidence is high for very dry air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  86  62  91 /  10  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca            62  80  54  84 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces               59  83  56  90 /  10  40  10  10
Alamogordo               55  78  52  86 /  10  60  10  10
Cloudcroft               40  55  39  63 /  10  80  10  20
Truth or Consequences    57  75  55  87 /  20  60  10  10
Silver City              49  73  50  79 /  10  40  10  10
Deming                   55  83  55  89 /  10  30  10  10
Lordsburg                52  82  53  87 /  10  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  83  59  88 /  10  20  10   0
Dell City                60  84  52  89 /   0  30   0  10
Fort Hancock             63  87  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda               57  76  54  83 /  10  20   0  10
Fabens                   63  86  57  91 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  82  55  87 /  10  20  10   0
White Sands HQ           62  81  61  88 /  10  40  10  10
Jornada Range            53  79  52  87 /  10  50  10  10
Hatch                    55  82  52  90 /  10  50  10  10
Columbus                 59  83  59  89 /   0  10   0   0
Orogrande                57  79  54  86 /  10  40  10  10
Mayhill                  45  65  44  74 /  10  70  10  10
Mescalero                45  65  42  75 /  20  80  20  20
Timberon                 44  66  42  73 /  10  60  10  10
Winston                  47  69  47  80 /  30  70  10  10
Hillsboro                51  75  51  85 /  20  50  10  10
Spaceport                52  76  50  88 /  10  50  10  10
Lake Roberts             44  71  44  81 /  20  60  10  10
Hurley                   47  76  49  83 /  10  30  10  10
Cliff                    52  79  50  87 /  20  40   0  10
Mule Creek               51  74  50  82 /  20  30   0  10
Faywood                  50  76  51  83 /  10  40  10  10
Animas                   53  82  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  82  54  87 /   0  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice