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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
543 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN VA/INTERIOR NE
NC BASED ON CRNT RADAR OBS AND SFC TMPS. PCPN RAPIDLY EXPANDED N
AND E PAST FEW HRS WITH TMPS BLO FREEEZING. WILL CONT TO MONITOR
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST AND APPRCHS TIDEWATER / NRN
OUTER BANKS. TMPS THERE ARE ARND FREEZING SO THE HAZARD MAY NOT
BE AS DANGEROUS AS IT IS INLAND.

PVS DSCN:
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN HRS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ087-092.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...