Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPR RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH
THRU THE DAY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO RISE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY IN
THE MID/UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINLY CLEAR AND NOT AS COLD TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S PIEDMONT TO NEAR 40 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY.
THIS FORCES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...AND INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
SW FLOW AND AN UPR RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE COAST WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPR 50S TO THE LOW/MID 60S. MILD
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL VA MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT
ANY CHANCE OF PCPN OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...AS ANY PCPN
LOOKS TO BE ANAFRONTAL. WE WILL HOWEVER SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRNT SLIDES FARTHER SE OF THE AREA MON NGT...WITH THE CHANCE
OF POST-FRNTAL PRECIP CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W. COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVR
THE NRN PIEDMONT BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER...FOR NOW
MAINLY EXPECTING PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AND TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERS INTO TUE WITH STILL SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND DECENT WAA. WITH STRONG HI PRES
STRADDLING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LO 40S NW TO LO 50S. WILL MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS (NEAR CLIMO) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THAN TUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
WED THRU FRI GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S AND LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A SSW WIND AVERAGING
8-12KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE SSW WIND WILL RELAX TO 5-8KT TONIGHT...AND THEN
INCREASE TO 8-12KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW MONDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING S OF THE REGION TUESDAY. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWER
CIGS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A CHC OF
-RA. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 20-25KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW AND
AVERAGING 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. A SSW WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH 15-20KT IN THE BAY N
OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR
20NM N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. AN SCA WILL BE ISSUED FROM 23Z TODAY TO
23Z SUNDAY FOR THE OCEAN N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND 23Z TODAY TO
15Z SUNDAY FOR THE BAY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THIS TIME WITH THE WIND GENERALLY
AOB 15KT OUT OF THE SSW. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A NNE SURGE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





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