Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THIS CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY ENCROACHING ON WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY 9AM. AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK SW-NE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE E AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...EVENTUALLY ENDING AROUND 9AM ALONG THE COAST AS DRIER NW FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MAINLY
SUNNY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU...ALONG WITH BREEZY
WESTERLY FLOW BY MID/LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD EARLY
THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S FOR CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS...AND UPPER 60S FAR SE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF TO THE UPPER 40S W...TO MID 50S E
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S AS CAA IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WIND
DIMINISHES UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY...AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN LIMITED MIXING...SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING AT 850MB WILL NOT BE FULLY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL FAVOR MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OR ABOUT +1 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 30S. SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEANING TWD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT NGT...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LO PRES AREA START TO APPROACH FM THE W. THAT
LO WILL MOVE ENE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACRS SRN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON NGT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE 40-50%
POPS ACRS THE AREA SUN THRU MON...DIMINISHING TO 30% THEN 20% FOR
MON NGT AND TUE. IF THE LO PRES TRACK IS FARTHER S...THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME WINTRY PCPN WITH THE WAVE LATE SUN NGT
INTO MON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN...IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE...AND
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S
TO UPR 40S SUN AND MON MORNGS...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 TUE
MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WED MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS THE AREA WAS SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL ANOTHER AREA
OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC AND WESTERN VA WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST.
YESTERDAYS IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10Z-13Z AS THE AREA OF RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL VA AND NC PUSHES THROUGH. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RAIN...
HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE MOVG
EAST INTO WESTERN VA AND NC. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU CENTRL VA AROUND 09Z AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.
OVERALL CEILINGS WILL IMRPOVE RAPIDLY FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL PUSH MOISTURE OUT ALLOWING VFR WX FOR A FEW
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 18 TO 26 KT OVER
THE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST. LEAVING SCA`S INTACT FOR THE CHES
BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS THRU THU AFTN.
WINDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WAS JUST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND PUSH OFFSHORE.
SW TO W WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR MARGINAL SCA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF DECREASING WINDS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HI PRES WILL BE RIGHT OVR THE WTRS DURING FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRES MOVING ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN AFFECT THE WATERS SUN AFTN INTO MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SEAS MAY BUILD
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/JAO
MARINE...JAO



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.