Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM


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