Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 290230
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through
tonight. Meanwhile, a weak tropical depression will linger off the
Carolina coast through Tuesday, before pushing farther out to sea
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet evening across the local area as showers remain south of the
Albemarle Sound. High pressure remains centered off the Northeast
coast as still tropical depression 8 churns well off the Southeast
coast. Expect a few hours of mostly clear skies inland (mostly
cloudy southeast), allowing for temperatures to drop into the
mid-upper 60`s before another round of stratus and patchy fog.
Warmer southeast due to clouds, with lows generally in the mid
70`s. Ongoing forecast looks good, so not changes needed at this
time.

Previous Discussion...
Current analysis indicating ~1026 mb surface high pressure
centered off the New England coast/into Atlantic Canada, with
Tropical Depression #8 located well off the Se US coast (about 350
miles SE of Cape Hatteras). Please see latest forecast from
TPC/NHC for details, though no significant impacts are expected
for the local area. Partly-mostly sunny skies prevail over the NW
2/3 of the CWA, with more clouds persisting in far SE VA and NE
NC. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to around 90 F well
inland amd in the low to mid 80s along the SE coast. Will maintain
a 20% POP in NE NC into the early evening, though bulk of moisture
will stay along/S of Albemarle Sound. Overall, anticipate fairly
similar scenario to last night/early this morning as skies will be
mostly clear in the evening (except over the far SE), with another
round of low clouds and at least some patchy fog inland from about
06-12Z Monday morning. 12z GFS and NAM Bufkit soundings show this
potential as they did yesterday at this time. Lows overnight to
range from the lower 70s SE coast to 65-70 F elsewhere.

For Monday, TD #8 progged to drift W but still remain too far off
the NC/SC coast to have any significant impacts on the sensible
wx. High res models suggest once again a chance for isolated/widely
scattered showers in SE VA and NE NC (POPS 20-30%) while
conditions stay primarily dry elsewhere. Highs will avg around 90
F well inland and N to the mid 80s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still not much change to the pattern Mon night/Tue, as a weak
front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as the tropical
depression lingers off the coastal Carolinas before slowly curving
NE and farther out to sea Late Tue/Wed. Highs will average in the
u80s- l90s (low- mid 80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the
u60s- l70s along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms
over SE VA- NE NC zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At this time, going closer to the 12z ECMWF for the extended
period. The combination of some tropical moisture along the mid
atlc and se cst, and the approach and passage of a cold front,
will produce slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Wed ngt into Thu
evening. Dry wx and a more comfortable airmass will filter into
the region for Thu ngt into Sun, as high pressure blds in fm the N
and slides offshore on Sun. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and
mainly in the lower to mid 80s Fri, Sat, and Sun. Lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, in
the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt, and in the 60s Sat ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this evening resulting in
VFR conditions. Periods of MVFR ceilings still possible southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina, but overall VFR conditions
observed. Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) will again
be possible overnight/Monday from 06-12Z. Exception will be MVFR
conditions for the southeast local area due to clouds and light
northeast winds. Conditions improve 12-13Z Monday with VFR
conditions and northeast winds.

Mainly dry weather is expected through Wed other than isolated to
scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across
far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). Tropical
depression 8 is progged to develop into a Tropical Storm and lift
off the NC Outer Banks Wednesday, posing little threat to the
local area.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue with no headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue.
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes late this aftn, will
slide into the nrn Atlc tngt. Meanwhile, Tropical depression eight
well ESE of the NC cst, is expected to move WNW twd the outer
banks of NC by Tue, then turn NE and out to sea Tue ngt into Thu.
Expect NE thru SE winds 15 kt or less acrs the waters thru Tue,
with waves 1-3 ft and seas 3-4 ft. The tropical depression will
affect the srn waters, esply coastal zns thru Wed with 10 to 15 kt
winds, and waves 2-3 ft and seas near 4 ft. A cold front will push
acrs the waters Thu into Thu evening, with winds shifting to the
NNE at 10 to 15 kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/SAM
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...


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