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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF ~1025 MB SFC HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE SE STATES. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TDA
ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL LO-LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...DEWPTS ONLY IN THE TEENS. HAVE ISSUED A
SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WITH MIN RH
~20% AND SUSTAINED WINDS ~15 MPH. REFER TO FIRE WX SECTION BLO FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT AS LO PRES TRAVERSES SE
CANADA. EXPECT PRTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING
TO AROUND 40 WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW. TEMPS RISE FURTHER INTO SAT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LO
APPROACHING FRM THE WEST. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FRM THE MID TO UPR
60S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY FROPA OCCURS SAT
NGT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRNT. LO TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S.

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN COMES SUN AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LO PRES OVR THE
LWR MS VALLEY PULLS EWRD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
FRM WEST TO EAST FRM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN. NO PTYPE ISSUES
ANTICIPATED DAYTIME SUN WITH AFTN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO UPR 40S N TO
MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND PULLS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND PULLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...1025-1030MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER QB THROUGH TUESDAY. SPATIAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE/EXIST BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF...BUT OVERALL AGREE ON
THIS GENERAL PATTERN.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CHC FAR
N)...WITH LIKELY SE MONDAY...AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES DROP SHARPLY (BELOW 1295M FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO FALL AOB 32F
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES. OVERALL...MAINLY RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH A MIX OF RA/SN POSSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH RESPECT TO THE SECONDARY WAVE...SO CURRENT
CURRENT FORECAST POPS ARE SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A MODERATING TREND ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SW FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST.
GUSTY SW WINDS (15-25 KTS) DEVELOPS THIS AFTRN AS PRS GRDNT INCRS.
SW WINDS 10-15 KTS TONITE ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLDNS.

OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR WX PREVAILS THRU SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
BY LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS & SEAS QUICKLY DROPPED BLO SCA ERLY THIS MORN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST. THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS AN APPRCHG WRM FRNT TO THE WEST LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONITE. MODELS AGREE THAT MINIMAL
SCA WINDS DVLP ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NRN COASTAL WATERS STARTING
THIS AFTRN THROUGH LATE TONITE.

PRESSURE GRDNT RELAXES SATURDAY AND FLOW BECOMES WEST AS A CD FRNT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION N-S
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A STRONG NNE
WIND AND INCREASED SEAS/WAVES ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A MARKEDLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TDA...WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S ON A RELATIVELY DRY
S-SW WIND. MIN RH VALUES WILL AVG ~20% ACROSS THE AREA. FUELS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THRU THE DAY TDA AS WELL. FOLLOWING COLLAB
WITH OTHER OFFICES AND SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY ~15
MPH (BLO REG FLAG CRITERIA)...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPS FRM NOON TO
6 PM THIS AFTN. AREA THAT MAY BE CLOSEST TO WIND CRITERIA IS THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE...WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THERE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...MAS