Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 310155
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region
this weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become
centered across the eastern states this weekend through early next
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Adjusted pops per current rarad trends. Convection coming in from
the NW progged to come into the NW piedmont cntys nex few hours
then dissipate as they drift SE toward RIC by midnite. Quick spin
up storm which prompted the SVR across Mecklenburg cntys has
quickly dsptd as it moved into the already work over airmass to
the east. Mdt to hvy rainfall assctd with the first trof now movg
offshore. Pops to quickly drop to slght chc after midnite. Patchy
fog psbl especially in areas the got a soaking. Otherwise, partly
to mostly cloudy and remaining humid with lows in the 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Similar day weatherwise on Sunday as the upper trough over the
midwest translates east through Monday, lingering over the region
for much of the week ahead. Accordingly expect rain chances to be
mainly diurnally driven for iso-sct showers/tstms through the
period, with PoPs in the high end chance (30-50%) range, highest
across the southeast over the coastal plain. Expect more in the
way of clouds in place under the upper trough, and this along with
modest hgt falls should keep temps near to just below climo. Highs
Sunday range from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south.
The upper trough gradually sharpens across the East Coast Monday
and Tuesday. As numerous shortwaves drop out of the Ohio Valley
and round the base of the upper trough, expect continued mainly
diurnally driven showers and storms. Pcpn chances both days remain
highest over se VA/ne NC, so chc pops (30%) will continue there,
with slight chc (20%) elsewhere. Highs both days to generally
range from the upr 80s to around 90 after morning lows in the
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the
Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing
out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the
Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This
will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across
far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary.
With sfc high pressure building into New England early in
the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the
second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more
seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and
cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively
squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90
degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are
expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus
enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints,
and overall precip chances.
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly stable airmass over the CWA resulted in few strong
showers/tstms early this afternoon/evening...but getting better as
the sun began to fall. VFR conditions are expected over the area
tonight with maybe some patchy fog developing.
Showers and tstms are expected again Sunday afternoon/eveing.
Winds will be light and mainly from the southeast outside of
thunderstorms becoming mainly south and southwest on Sunday.
OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Monday. Mainly
dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday. No significant
IFR is expected outside of thunderstorms.
No headlines in the short term today thru Sun ngt. Winds were NE-
SE arnd 5 kt or less early this morning over the waters, and will
become SE 5 to 10 kt during today, as a warm front approaches and
moves into the region. Winds will then become S then SW later tngt
into Sun morning, as the warm front pushes off the coast. A cold
front will then drop acrs the waters and off the coast Mon into
Tue morning. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. Seas
will average 2-3 ft thru the period with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay.