Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 280222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
922 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

High pressure remains offshore tonight. A warm front lifts
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with broad
southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm well above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from
the west Wednesday and cross the region Wednesday night.


Mid evening MSAS has the sfc high well off the coast, a sfc
trof across the mts west into the KY/TN valley along with a
quasi-stationary front along the Carolina coast. Models show
mid level moisture streaming NE across the area with adntl
moisture developing near the coast along the frontal boundary.
High res data all over the place wrt pcpn chcs overnight given
the dry air at the sfc. For this update, went with more with
what the crnt trends are showing. Expect mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Given the mid/high level cloud deck, added sprinkles
to the NWrn half of the fa over the next several hours based on
the current radar trends and a comp of the high res data.

Shifted low pop chcs toward the coast after 06z due to waa along
the coastal boundary as it is progged to lift north later tonite.
All this for only trace amounts of rainfall to at most a few
hundredths of an inch across the northern Outer Banks by 12Z.
Milder than last nite. Lows in the lwr 40s NW to lwr 50s SE.


Above normal temps and frequent chances of rain during the short
term period. Tough to time the pcpn Tue/Tue night as there will
be transient shortwaves aloft as well as WAA. PoPs are generally
20-30% daytime Tue, with a higher PoP (50-60%) Tue eveng over
northern areas as a warm front lifts north through the area.
Temps about 15-20 degrees above normal...highs in the low-mid
70s; upr 60s for the Lwr Eastern Shore. Low temps Tue night in
the upr 50s to lwr 60s.

Attention then turns Wed to a cold front approaching from the
west. Think much of the daytime period will be dry except
20-40% PoPs again for northern/western areas. With the fropa
holding off until Wed night, temps will be even warmer than
those of Tue...highs in the lwr 80s many areas. Cold front Wed
night will be as strong as the one last Sat, with SPC including
the FA in a slight risk of severe wx. One issue however will be
the timing of the front, with the best chance of tstms (Wed
eveng) being after dark. That may diminish the severe potential
however not remove the possibility entirety as deep layer shear
and forcing is quite strong. PoPs up to 70% attm.


The long term period begins Thursday morning with overnight
precipitation off the coast by sunrise. An intensifying surface low
over the Northeast States will move quickly to the east into
Atlantic Canada. High pressure over the Plains States Thursday
builds into the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday. A short wave
trough in the northern stream on Friday will bring an increase in
clouds and possibly a few showers to northern part of the
area...especially the northern neck and Lower Eastern Shore. A
secondary cold front moves through Friday morning. Dry weather will
prevail for the weekend. The aforementioned high pressure system
will move off the coast Sunday. The next frontal system approaches
early next week with increasing clouds and a slight chance for
showers Monday.

High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s Thursday
through Saturday with some 40s northeast portions Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures warm into the 60s Sunday and mid 60s to lower
70s Monday. Lows are expected to be in the 30s Friday through Sunday
mornings except 20s inland areas Saturday morning. Low temperatures
Monday morning will range through the 40s.


High pressure offshore bringing VFR conditions and E-S winds 5
to 10 kt over the region. Mid to high clouds continue to stream
into the area from the west, and this will continue through the
TAF period. A weak coastal trough will be near the Carolina cst
late tngt, which may produce a few showers across far eastern
areas of the forecast area.

Outlook...A warm front lifts N through the region Tuesday with
only a minimal chc of showers Tuesday/Tuesday night, aside from
a 30-50% chc for SBY Tuesday evening. A strong cold front will
approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region
Wednesday evening, and push offshore late Wednesday night. This
cold front will bring showers/tstms likely Wednesday
evening/night. High pressure returns Thursday and Thursday
night, followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Friday.


The marine area will have quiet conditions through Tuesday before
active weather brings increasing winds and seas for most of the
remainder of the week.

High pressure off the coast will bring light southerly winds to the
area through Tuesday morning. Winds slowly increase late Tuesday.
Seas increase Tuesday and will build to 4 to 6 feet Tuesday night
from north to south. The wind field increases ahead of a strong cold
front that approaches from the west. Have SCA in effect for coastal
states beginning at 00Z north of Cape Charles and 08Z to the south.
This is in effect through the end of the 4th period or 00Z Thursday
but will need to be extended in future forecast issuances. SCA winds
will be possible over inland waters on Wednesday but relatively cold
water will limit mixing and held off on issuing any other SCA.

SCA will be needed for all the waters Wednesday night through part
of the day Thursday as a strong cold front moves through. Winds
diminish late Thursday as the pressure gradient quickly weakens.
Another SCA will likely be needed Friday and Friday night behind a
secondary cold front.


Record high temperatures for March 1st:

 RIC...80 in 1976
 ORF...81 in 1918
 SBY...80 in 1976
 ECG...82 in 2012

Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the
top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3
warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest.

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 49.9 (1890)
  2) 48.5 (1976)
  3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 52.4 (1890)
  2) 50.5 (1909)
  3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
  1) 46.1 (1976)
  2) 45.8 (1984)
  3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
  1) 52.1 (1990)
  2) 51.8 (1939)
  3) 50.3 (1976)


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for


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