Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011411
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST OF THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH PLNTLY OF ST / SC LEFT BEHIND
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...LGHT SHWR ACTIVITY SHOWING SIGNS
OF DSPTG AS THEY MOVE E ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. ASSCTD S/W
XPCTD TO MOVE OFFSHORE NXT FEW HRS AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE RGN.

KEPT LOW POP ACROSS NERN AREAS NEXT FEW HRS AS SYSTM MOVES OFF THE
COAST. LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY SPARK OFF AN AFTRN
SHWR BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE ARND DEPARTING S/W.
BCMG PT SUNNY MOST AREAS. HIGHS 75-80.

PVS DSCN:
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ARE DRY ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT W/
CHCS OF ACCUMULATING PCPN QUITE LOW, WL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW. WENT WITH WARMER ENVELOPE OF NAM GUIDANCE FOR MINIMA TNGT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO
L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC
POP THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM
DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHRAS/SPRINKLES, ORIENTED MAINLY WEST OF I-95. ONCE AGAIN, HV
OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO
ARND 80.

AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING, SO WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
AROUND 12Z SAT...W/ SHOWER CHANCES TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIMIT SHRA CHANCES ON SATURDAY
MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





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