Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1021 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE NC
COAST. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY
THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LINE OF
20-30% POPS TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC BY EARLY MON
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT
OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MORE THAN
PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT
NO IMPACTS ON TAF SITES. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO
AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY
INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM


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