Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 190210 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND WESTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. CONVECTION OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY HAS SENT OUT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NAM/ECMWF SHOW
925MB FLOW 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAKLY
DIFLUENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND LOWER
THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR REST OF THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF ALI AND CRP TAF SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT VCT TAF SITE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND LRD
TAF SITES TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE VCT
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  76  91  75  /  40  40  20  20  20
VICTORIA          76  88  74  93  75  /  60  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            77  96  76  96  78  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  93  74  93  75  /  40  30  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  90  78  90  78  /  50  50  20  20  20
COTULLA           76  93  75  96  76  /  50  30  20  30  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  75  93  75  /  40  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  89  79  91  79  /  40  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





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