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000
FXUS64 KCRP 211145 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
645 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Periodic MVFR ceilings will be possible at LRD for the next couple
of hours with VFR elsewhere. Southeast winds will increase by mid
day with gusts during the afternoon between 18 and 22 knots at
ALI/CRP/VCT. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
by this afternoon and have included VCTS remarks and tempo TSRA
at VCT. Low clouds may redevelop late tonight into early Friday
morning. MVFR ceilings were added at LRD, but not confident enough
to include at the other terminals just yet.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Models continue to indicate that moisture will increase across
South Texas today. PW values should climb today between 1.8
and 2.0 inches over much of the area. At the same time, a weak
shortwave trough will traverse region as well. The shortwave
trough, sea breeze, and increase in moisture will result in better
chances of showers and thunderstorms today. Pops will generally
range from 20 percent over the Rio Grande to 40 percent over the
Coastal Bend into Victoria Crossroads. Convection should die down
between 00z and 06z over inland locations with some redevelopment
possible over the Gulf Waters overnight.

The upper disturbance weakens heading into Friday as upper level
ridging will build back over the area. Convection on Friday will
be confined mainly to the sea breeze and will keep a 20 in the
forecast for much of the area.

Regarding temperatures today and Friday, highs will be in the
upper 90s over the Rio Grande to upper 80s and low 90s over the
northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Mid and upper level ridging Fri night into Sat will bring drier mid
levels across S TX. Sufficient low level moisture will remain in
place for iso shra/tsra`s along the sea breeze Sat. Slightly deeper
moisture and better instability across the NE CWA on Sunday will
lead to a little bit better chc of convection for the VCT
Crossroads. Precip chcs increase through the first part of next week
as a potent upper low approaches from the west with embedded short
waves tracking NE out ahd of it and combines with deepening
moisture. The superblend output had very high pops by mid week,
however due to uncertainty with timing of short waves and how deep
the moisture will be, kept the pops at 40 percent or less for now.
Temps are progged to be slightly cooler by a degree or two the first
part of next week due to the increase in the moisture combined with
cooling of the mid/upper levels as the upper low approaches TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  92  76  92  /  40  20  20  20  20
Victoria          91  75  91  72  91  /  40  20  20  10  20
Laredo            99  79  98  77  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  76  95  75  93  /  30  20  20  10  20
Rockport          92  81  90  79  89  /  40  20  20  20  20
Cotulla           99  76  97  75  96  /  20  20  10  10  10
Kingsville        95  77  94  75  92  /  30  20  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       92  81  90  80  88  /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION