Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 240004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
704 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016


Upper level short wave continues to track across S TX per water
vapor satellite. Some drying is expected in the mid/upper levels
as the wave shifts NE across the area. However, low level moisture
will persist. Latest tide levels are running approx 1/2 a foot
above normal, which will lead to tides reaching around 1.7 feet
abv MSL at the time of high tide tonight. Thus, will not be
issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time. Will continue to
monitor tide trends for possible updates. Overall, forecast looks
on track with no major updates at this time.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/


See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.


Generally VFR conditions are expected a majority of the time with
brief MVFR conditions possible from ALI to VCT late tonight/early
Mon morning. An upper level short wave currently moving across S
TX will help bring drier mid/upper levels as the wave exits to the
NE. However, moisture in the lower levels will continue to produce
sct/bkn conditions, but any CIGs that do develop will mostly be
abv 3KFT with the exception of VCT. VCT may briefly have CIGS at
MVFR levels Mon morning. There may also be brief light patchy fog
toward sunrise.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Mid level s/w trough axis from this morning has exited to the NE
while an additional s/w vort max is approaching from the west.
Light echoes on area radars...associated with increase in lift
from approaching vort max...should amount to only virga /or a few
sprinkles/ as airmass remains rather dry. Vort max is prog to only
move slowly eastward overnight which will result in an increase in
mid level cloud cover...which will also in turn aid in keeping min
temps slightly warmer than what was experienced this morning.
Vort max will continue to advect eastward Monday with perhaps a
brief light shower possible across the region. However...continued
limited moisture depth should preclude much in the way of precip
activity...and have omitted mention of precip from forecast. H85
temps increase slightly on Monday...resulting in max temps a
degree or two warmer than today if enough sunshine can occur.
Clearing skies Monday night as the disturbance shifts east of the
area...with the clearer skies resulting in slightly cooler min

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

GFS deterministic predict PWAT values near/slightly above normal
Tuesday/Wednesday over the CWA/MSA which will combine with
increasing CAPE to contribute to convection Tuesday/Wednesday
over the MSA and over portions of the ERN CWA. GFS/ECMWF
deterministic/GFS ensemble mean depict the upper ridge to build
over the CWA/MSA Wednesday-Friday. Anticipate that drying aloft
associated with the upper ridge will contribute to at least patchy
fog over portions of the CWA early Thursday morning. No
significant convection anticipated over the CWA Thursday given
much drier vertical column. The GFS predicts increasing moisture
over the CWA response to stronger East flow across the
NRN Gulf of Mexico as the MSLP gradient increases in response to a
surface low approaching the Yucatan (GFS deterministic/GFS
ensemble mean) resulting in greater moisture advecting across the
MSA/onshore the CWA...which may contribute to convection over
portions of the ERN CWA Friday. The GFS then predicts dry air
advection from the N/NE across the CWA/MSA Saturday/Sunday
consistent with a surface anticyclone approaching the CWA from
the NE in response to change in orientation of the upper ridge.
WaveWatch continues to predict long period swell across buoy 42020
Friday-Sunday with periods increasing from 8 to 10 seconds and
thus maintaining the risk for rip currents Friday-Sunday.


Corpus Christi    68  87  67  86  69  /  10  10  10  20  10
Victoria          63  86  61  85  66  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            69  88  67  87  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             64  89  63  86  66  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          72  86  70  84  74  /  10  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           66  89  67  86  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        65  88  64  86  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       74  86  72  84  75  /  10  10  10  20  10





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