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000
FXUS64 KCRP 081137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY TO MVFR...THEN AFTER
FROPA TO IFR...CLOSE TO LIFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT EASTERN TERMINALS WITH FROPA
SO DID INCLUDE. THUNDER SHOULD BE ELEVATED. AM EXPECTING MAIN
CONCERN FOR THUNDER ENDING BY 07Z...LASTING LONGEST AT KCRP. AFTER
FROPA...WHICH OCCURS ABOUT 09/00Z AT KLRD...AND BETWEEN 03Z-06Z
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST UP SOME AND BE NNE BEHIND
FROPA. AM EXPECTING CIGS TO BE IFR/LIFR BY THEN BUT IFR OR LOWER
CIGS LIKELY TO COME WITH THE FROPA. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER
AFTER 06Z AT KCRP WHERE INSTABILITY LASTS THE LONGEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS THE RAIN
CHANCES...AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE COMBINE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
THERE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY GOOD SURFACE FORCING TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT EITHER
IS LIMITED OR DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH RRQ OF
UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UPPER TROUGH AND THUS THIS MAY
PRECLUDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STILL...WILL FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM 900MB-800MB LAYER (AND THIS CAN BE LIFTED WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WILL JUST GO
WITH CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER ON SUNDAY.
WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...WILL GO CATEGORICAL
POPS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE GULF. LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. SOME VERY WEAK DRYING OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OUT WEST...SO WILL LOWER POPS JUST A TAD (BUT STILL CHANCE). AM
GOING TO GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY...THEN COLD TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN-COOLED ATMOSPHERE. ENJOY WHAT LITTLE SUNSHINE
SOME GET TODAY...SUNSHINE LIKELY ZERO ON SUNDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AM EXPECTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MOVE MOVE INTO GULF OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS NEAR SCA ON SUNDAY
(PROBABLY JUST BELOW SCA). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...WITH ESSENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...BUT JUST A BIT LESS UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
PROBABLY A BIT LESS THUNDER AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
WITH AN ONGOING ELONGATED WET PERIOD AS MODELS GENERATE A WEAK
COASTAL TROF THAT ACTS TO KEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO NORTHERN MEXICO...THEN ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY. EXPECT INTERMITTENT OVERRUNNING RAIN TO
BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW PASSES AND WE CAN FINALLY GET INTO A
DRIER AIRMASS.

EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL DO LITTLE
OTHER THAN CAUSE A WIND SHIFT AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.
WINDS THEN TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY BUT WEAK FLOW SHOULD KEEP WARMUP
IN CHECK. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IN GENERAL LOOKS VERY PLEASANT
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  48  50  49  65  /  40  80  70  40  40
VICTORIA          70  43  49  47  65  /  60  80  60  30  40
LAREDO            81  49  52  50  68  /  20  60  60  20  20
ALICE             77  46  49  47  65  /  40  80  70  30  30
ROCKPORT          69  47  49  49  60  /  40  80  70  40  40
COTULLA           72  46  49  46  68  /  50  60  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  47  50  49  65  /  40  80  70  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       70  49  51  51  61  /  40  80  70  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION