Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 172130
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
330 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Main feature of interest in the short term will be the strong cold
front on Saturday. Prior to the front, another mild night is
expected across South Texas. Overnight lows will fall into the low
70s along the immediate coastal with 60s elsewhere. Similar to
last few night, some patchy fog will be possible, most likely
developing around 08z or 09z. Confidence is not high that dense
fog will develop and will not mention in the forecast.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will swing through the Central
and Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will be moving
southward across the state during the day. The front should be
roughly north of the forecast area around 18z and near the coast
by 00z. Temps should be able to warm up nicely before the front
moves through. Highs in the mid 80s across the north to low 90s
across the far southern sections look reasonable. Rain chances
look pretty low as moisture is not overly impressive prior to
fropa. Will retain 10 pops with mention showers during the
afternoon along the immediate coast, but the slightly better
chances will occur over the Gulf Waters during the afternoon. Most
locations will remain dry.

Much cooler and drier air will arrive Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Lows will fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will continue tonight over the nearshore and
offshore Gulf Waters. Winds will generally be in the 15 to 20 knot
range, but a small craft advisory could become necessary if winds
are slightly higher. Strong northerly winds will pick up behind a
cold front Saturday night. SCAs will be likely but some gusts to
Gale Force will be possible over the Gulf Waters.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...

Strong northerly wind will relax over the waters through the day on
Sunday as high pressure settles in, and then will gradually return
out of the east-southeast Monday as the high slides east. CAA should
continue Sunday to keep temperatures in the 60s overall, however a
few locations may reach near 70 degrees, especially toward the
southern Coastal Bend. Chilly conditions will be felt come Sunday
night/Monday morning as dry air aloft and partly cloudy skies should
lead to good radiational cooling. The shift in the wind on Monday
will lead to temperatures rising back into the 80s by Tuesday. Long
term models now have some agreement with a similar set up for next
week, but still disagree on minor things as positioning and moisture
return. Overall, an area of low pressure at the surface is expected
to develop across the Texas Panhandle late Monday/early Tuesday and
dip southward with the next approaching mid level trough Tuesday
night. The surface low becomes more of a trough as it moves south,
with winds shifting more out of the east-northeast drawing moisture
into the western Gulf and across the Texas coast. This will return
rain chances for mid week next week. Surface high pressure will
slide in from the north and bring another frontal boundary through
on Wednesday night, ending rain chances yet allowing for strong
winds to again develop across the waters. Temperatures will cool
slightly behind this front but generally be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  88  50  68  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
Victoria          68  85  45  66  42  /  10  10   0   0  10
Laredo            67  86  50  66  47  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             68  90  49  68  46  /  10  10   0   0  10
Rockport          72  83  52  66  52  /  10  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           65  85  45  67  44  /  10   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        69  91  50  69  47  /  10  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       73  84  55  67  56  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM



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