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000
FXUS64 KCRP 210848
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
348 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

The first 12 hours of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF deterministic runs depict
a very weak trough axis at 500-mb over the NERN CWA. The
combination of the upper trough and near/above normal PWAT values
(NAM deterministic) warrants 10-20% POPs over the ERN CWA/MSA
Today. The deterministic output and the GFS ensemble mean depict
the upper trough, currently affecting FL/NERN Gulf of Mexico, to
affect the MSA/NERN CWA by Saturday afternoon. Thus, increased
the POPs over the ERN CWA to 20-30% for Saturday. Maximum heat
index values are expected in the 105 to 109F range over much of
the CWA and thus will issue an SPS. The new moon is expected to be
sufficient to increase the risk of rip currents to moderate
Today/Saturday. At least SCEC conditions anticipated for Saturday
over much of the MSA, owing in part to vertical mixing of greater
momentum (NAM deterministic 0-1km lapse rates/925-mb wind.)

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Mid/upper level inverted trough is progged to slowly shift westward
Sat night through Mon. Models also prog the deeper moisture to shift
north and northeast of the CWA during this time period, with lower
PWAT`s leading to most areas remaining dry through Mon. Went with 20
pop across the NE CWA Sunday where moisture remains slightly deeper
and cap is weakest, then dry Mon as cap strengthens. Deeper moisture
is progged to advect across the CWA by Tue as the upper trough
broadens across the region. With a weakening cap and diurnally
unstable airmass, went with 20-30 pops across the eastern 2/3rds Tue
and Wed. The upper trough axis shifts NE of the CWA by Thu with
deeper moisture remaining across the CWA. However, the cap is
progged to strengthen by Thu, therefore only went with a slight chc.

Very hot and humid conditions expected Sun with heat indices
possibly around 110. The remainder of the extended is expected to be
2-4 degrees cooler due to the increased moisture/clouds, but still
could see heat indices of 105-109 at times. Onshore winds are
expected to be breezy Sun with speeds near Small Craft Advisory
criteria for the southern bays and nearshore waters. The remainder
of the extended, winds are expected to be generally weak to
moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  95  78  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          96  77  95  78  96  /  20  10  30  10  20
Laredo           103  78 103  80 104  /   0  10  10   0  10
Alice             99  76 100  77 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          91  82  90  82  93  /  10  20  20  10  20
Cotulla          102  77 102  78 103  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        97  77  98  78 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       90  82  90  83  93  /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM