Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
531 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017


See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.



A weak nearly stationary cold front is located along the coast
this morning and is expected to meander through the afternoon
before pusing across the waters tonight. LIFR/IFR conditions this
morning are expected to lift to MVFR by late morning and VFR by
early afternoon with the exception of VCT where CIGS are expected
to remain MVFR a majority of the day. MVFR conditions are expected
to return to ALI and CRP by this evening with VCT becoming IFR
once again. SCT to NUM SHRA`s and ISOL TSRA`s are expected today
with a brief decrease in areal coverage this afternoon. An upper
disturbance combined with the weak front will contribute to
SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA`s once again tonight.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Latest radar trends show the heavier precip has moved north of the
CWA with SCT to NUM light showers continuing across the CWA. This
trend is expected through the morning hours. Models prog the
convection to diminish somewhat through today then another round of
SHRA/TSRA`s are progged to move through S TX tonight. This is due to
the main upper level trough shifting east across the region and
increasing upper level diffluence and bringing the RRQ of the jet
across S TX. A stalled weak front oriented SW to NE across the
Coastal counties, will continue to provide low level moisture
convergence today as it meanders near the coast. The front is
progged to begin moving east across the coastal waters by late
afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches the area.
Convection is progged to be along and behind the bdry with
convection being more elevated behind the bdry. Not much in the way
of sfc based instability, however the upper dynamics combined with
wind shear near the bdry could lead to some strong storms,
especially later tonight as the upper jet approaches the area. The
upper trough and associated cold front are expected to exit the
region by Thu morning with drier conditions filtering into S TX. A
subsident W to NW flow is expected to dvlp behind the front and
combine with clring skies to bring warmer temps to S TX on Thu.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Concur with the ECMWF/NAM deterministic that an upper level
disturbance will lift NEWD away from the SRN resulting in subsidence
over the CWA/MSA Thursday Night. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict another
weak upper system to move across the CWA/MSA Friday. Anticipate that
this system will contribute to isolated showers over the ERN CWA/MSA
Friday with PWAT as the limiting factor. The NAM/ECMWF deterministic
predict subsidence (with corresponding drying per GFS deterministic
SkewTs) over the CWA/MSA Friday Night/Saturday. The GFS/ECMWF
predict a strengthening upper system to move across the SRN Plains
late Saturday/Sunday with strong subsidence over the CWA/MSA Sunday
(ECMWF deterministic.) The associated frontal boundary is expected
to move across the CWA/MSA Saturday Night. Anticipate that moisture
will be insufficient for precipitation along the front. Very
dry/wind conditions expected Sunday. Gale conditions may occur over
at least the Offshore Coastal Waters Sunday. Critical Fire Weather
conditions may occur Sunday afternoon owing to the combination of
strong NW flow and low minimum RH values. Offshore flow expected to
steadily decrease from west to east Monday. Onshore flow anticipated
Tuesday in response to yet another system aproaching from the west
(GFS ensemble mean.)


Corpus Christi    70  57  75  59  77  /  60  60  50   0  20
Victoria          66  56  73  56  77  /  80  60  40   0  20
Laredo            65  55  78  57  83  /  30  30  10   0  10
Alice             68  56  77  57  80  /  50  50  30   0  20
Rockport          69  57  72  60  74  /  70  70  50   0  20
Cotulla           63  51  77  52  82  /  40  30  10   0  10
Kingsville        69  58  77  58  80  /  50  50  40   0  20
Navy Corpus       69  58  72  61  73  /  60  70  50   0  20





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