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000
FXUS64 KCRP 100010
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
610 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN AROUND
LOW END MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION EXPECT CEILINGS TO FINALLY SCATTERED
OUT TO VFR CRITERIA...BEGINNING AT KVCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND THE
REST OF THE REGION JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WIND
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE AOA KCRP OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS
AOA 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH BR IS STILL
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THIS TO END EARLY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE MUCH ADVERTISED
SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INFILTRATE THE
NRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST ADVECTION OF COLD AIR IS
STILL EXPECTED FROM AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS MOS/BUFKIT WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
RESULTANT WINDS. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 30 KTS WAS STILL BEING
FORECAST FOR CRP AND THIS WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PRIOR RUNS.
WL UNDERCUT THE GFS MOS WINDS SLIGHTLY. EITHER WAY THIS WL STILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS TNT FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT LOCALIZED WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN AREAS OF SAN PATRICIO...NUECES AND
KLEBERG COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. BASED UPON THE
SMALL AREA...WL FORGO A WIND ADVY ATTM. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS
AND STRONG CAA...WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED
TNT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WL THUS ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE 08-15Z TIMEFRAME. ALSO WITH SUCH STRONG
CAA...AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE APPEARS LKLY ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES TNT
AND WL THUS GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING. WL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HOLDS ON A BIT LONGER. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BY LATER THIS
EVENING SHOULD BEGIN AND ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LATE TNT INTO TUE WL AID IN THE EROSION OF
THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FINALLY GIVE SOUTH TX SOME
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...AFTN HIGHS ON TUE WL STILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. A RADIATIONAL FREEZE IS LKLY TUE NIGHT FOR
POTENTIALLY MORE OF THE CWA AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND CLOUDS
ARE HELD AT BAY TO THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY
LEANED TWDS THE COLDER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE
NIGHT.

MARINE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR TNT AND TUE.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRIOR
THINKING.  A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TNT AND TUE MORNING AS A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SWD
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.  THE RESULT WL BE HIGH-END SCA
CONDITIONS TNT AND TUE MORNING. BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LKLY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WL GET TO
AROUND 10 FT BY TUE MORNING. A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS IS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTN AND NIGHT AS THE SFC WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS SOUTH TX.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH RESIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LITTLE TO NO STRONG FOCUS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE AS BEFORE...WITH
WIND FLOW WEAKENING DURING THE TIME FRAME. MAY SEE PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...HOWEVER WITH JUST THE
DECREASING FLOW...HAVE PULLED OUT POPS. CONTINUED A QUIET REGIME
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A SECONDARY PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS. HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. A RETURN OF
THE MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC FLOW AT 295K SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MIX HEADING INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY...BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS FRONTS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE
FURTHER...WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ACTUALLY BREAKING UP WITH SOME SUN PEEKING THROUGH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    35  49  35  54  43  /  40  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          31  48  29  52  39  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            37  53  36  54  45  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             34  49  32  52  42  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          34  48  35  54  44  /  40  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           31  51  31  53  41  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        35  50  33  54  43  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       36  49  39  55  45  /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION