Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051122
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR OWING TO MIST DRG THE 10-12Z FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL BEND. LGT WEST/VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WL
TRANSITION TO N/NE THIS AFTN. LGT EAST WIND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE CWA/MSA AS THE REGION REMAINS EAST OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS (GFS DETERMINISTIC.) THE AXIS APPROACHES
THE CWA FRIDAY MEANING THAT THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONTRIBUTES TO AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...
MSTR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE CWA PER NAM DETERMINISTIC.
THUS WL MAINTAIN NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR TODAY/FRIDAY. EXPECT TIDE
LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH A PRONOUNCED SLOW-MOVING BROAD
SCALE PATTERN MARKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY REPLENISHING MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS.

BY MONDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR RAIN
CHANCES. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND
A NOTICEABLE CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY GENERALLY EAST OF US281 AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE VERY SPOTTY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRYLINE PUSHING EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING
DESERT AIR TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
WEST OF TEXAS 16 TICK 100 EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  62  87  65  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          86  57  85  61  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            94  64  93  68  92  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             90  59  89  62  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          85  66  84  69  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           91  60  91  64  91  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        89  60  89  64  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       82  67  84  70  81  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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