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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271057
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
457 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR S TX THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGD TO SHIFT E
TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING WED. THE SLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS/TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BY WED ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
SUNDAY AND CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA
APPROXIMATELY SUNDAY AFTN. YET...THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF A THIRD DISTURBANCE AFTER THE SYSTEM
IT ENTERS THE WEST COAST NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT (BASED ON THE 300K SURFACE) OVER
THE CWA/MSA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA REGARDLESS OF THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE THIRD SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER.)
THUS CONFIDENT IN THE SUPERBLEND SOLN WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD WITH ADJUSTMENTS. DECIDED TO FCST SHOWERS RATHER THAN
STRATIFORM RAIN OWING TO A SUB-TROPICAL JET PROG BY THE GFS/ECMWF
TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA BY SATURDAY ALONG WITH LIMITED ELEVATED
CAPE. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC OUTPUT AT 300K SUGGEST A DISSIPATION OF
PCPN BY SUNDAY AFTN...CONCUR WITH THE SUPERBLEND THAT A CHANCE FOR
PCPN WL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OWING TO THE GFS/ECMWF PSN OF THE
FOREGOING UPPER JET. NO GREATER THAN SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER THE EARLY FRIDAY FRONT...YET SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO SUNDAY FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER FROPAS. THE
COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
READINGS 40-45F OVER THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  50  77  56  71  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          76  48  77  53  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            79  52  82  53  76  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             79  49  80  55  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          72  51  69  56  68  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           78  48  81  51  76  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  50  78  55  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  54  73  57  67  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION