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000
FXUS64 KCRP 011023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM