Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 212315
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
515 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAF`s.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure across the area will maintain VFR conditions tonight
through Wed. Current sfc winds are moderate W-NW, but are expected
to diminish after sunset becoming light and variable overnight
through Wed.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Quiet weather is in store through the period as an upper level
ridge moves across the region on Wednesday. Weak surface high
pressure ridge will settle into South Texas tonight with winds
becoming light north-northwest overnight. Went closer to the lower
MAV guidance for minimum temperatures tonight with respect to
radiational cooling. Dry air mass will be over the region for
Wednesday as the surface ridge moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect very warm temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 90s
over the western Brush Country. Onshore flow will lead to a
gradual increase in the boundary layer moisture over the coastal
plains Wednesday night. Patchy fog will be possible late in the
period for the coastal plains.

MARINE...

Northwest winds remain strong at the offshore buoy 42019. Will let
the SCA continue over the offshore waters through expiration at
00Z Wednesday. SCEC conditions will continue for the offshore
waters until after midnight.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Onshore flow expected to develop/increase Thursday over the CWA/MSA
in response to an upper disturbance predicted to move across the
Rockies/enter the Plains Thursday and deepen a surface low over the
Southern Plains (GFS/ECMWF deterministic.) As this upper system
continues to move east...a much drier/cooler airmass is expected to
move across the CWA/MSA Friday/Saturday. An Elevated Fire Danger
condition may occur over the WRN CWA Friday afternoon. At least SCA
conditions expected over the MSA Saturday. General agreement between
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF that a quasi-zonal upper flow
develops by late Saturday then continues until Monday when another
upper system enters the West Coast. In response...onshore flow
expected to occur Sunday/Monday over the CWA/MSA. The GFS predicts
increasing PWAT values to above normal levels by Monday. Will
forecast isolated showers for the ERN CWA/MSA Monday/Tuesday
(credence added by both the SuperBlend and the GFS ensemble mean
precipitation output.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    52  83  56  83  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          49  84  54  81  61  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            53  91  57  93  61  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             50  88  53  88  61  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          54  81  60  77  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           49  90  53  91  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        50  85  53  88  62  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       57  79  62  77  66  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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