Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 031132 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS ESPECIALLY FROM VCT-CRP-ALI. DID
TRANSITION TO VCTS AT VCT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.
DAYTIME BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SAT...WITH
2-3K FT CLOUDS RETURNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE OUT WEST EARLY ON...BUT INCREASE TO NEAR 1.6 INCH
PWAT ALONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE WARM H85-H7 TEMPS...HOWEVER A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7-1.8 INCHES/ CREEPS IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MIDLEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXTENDED CHANCE POPS FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL BEND DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE...SHIFTING
THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEPT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL FOR DAYTIME TEMPS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW FORMING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS AT
NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL BEND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  92  78  92  /  20  20  30  10  20
VICTORIA          91  76  91  77  92  /  20  10  30  10  20
LAREDO            96  76  97  77 100  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             92  76  94  76  95  /  20  10  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          90  80  89  80  88  /  20  20  30  10  20
COTULLA           94  76  94  76  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  92  77  95  /  20  20  30  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  80  89  80  89  /  20  20  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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