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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR
TODAY. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SOMEWHAT POTENT
VORT MAX WAS ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG
BEND REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE MAXIMUM...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING
MCS WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /VCNTY OF DEL RIO/.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL MOVE ENE TODAY
AROUND H5 RIDGING CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEX. DPVA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FEEL THAT AREAS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. FARTHER EAST...LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY /CAP/ THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS POPS THERE ARE THE LOWEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ENERGY KICKS TO THE NE.
AN ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON
MOISTURE DEPTH FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WETTER ECMWF/GFS AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO LOW CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. MORE OF
AN ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY /COMPARED TO A TRUE SE FLOW PREVIOUS
DAYS/ MAY TEMPER MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL HAVE
GONE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DAY/S MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO
DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEING ADVECTED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 1 INCH
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO BE THE SLOWER MODEL WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA
12Z WEDNESDAY. AS PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS BY
THURSDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  73  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  73  89  71  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  77  93  76  97  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             91  76  91  72  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  77  86  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  74  93  72  94  /  40  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  76  91  74  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  85  76  85  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM