Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 272147
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...GENERALLY QUIET AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY FOG
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WARMER BY 5-7 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY A NICE DAY FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING.
MODELS ARE BRINGING MOISTURE BACK FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY
RAINFALL AND ISENTROPIC PATTERN SHOWS HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...SO THINK RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (10 OR LESS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT). SHOULD HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
FRIDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADD.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO JUST BELOW SCEC LEVELS (THAT IS WHAT IS
BEING FORECAST). COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
WHICH CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WHICH WL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA (AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO SFC TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW) AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MSTR (AGAIN GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.) GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT CONTINUE TO
DEPICT PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND/MSA SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT INTO SRN TX MONDAY AFTN. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT OWING IN PART TO MSTR
CONVERGENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SOLN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  76  60  77  65  /   0  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          48  73  57  77  63  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            53  78  53  81  59  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             50  78  57  79  63  /   0  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          55  73  62  73  66  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           46  76  52  81  59  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  77  57  79  64  /   0  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  62  75  68  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




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