Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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871
FXUS63 KGID 130840
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS WANING ON THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CEILINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MOVE EASTWARD MUCH OVERNIGHT
AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
KEEP IT IN ITS SOLUTIONS...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT AS
WELL. DID KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH SMALL CHANCES.

A DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
EAST/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY ALLOWING RELATIVE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WHICH DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AS A
FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO NOT
DROPPING MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. A COUPLE VERY MODEST PRECIP
POSSIBILITIES SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY. OVERALL FCST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

NO CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN IS FORESEEN THRU TUE...WITH AN E PAC
TROF/WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND A TROF IN THE E. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW
FLOW HERE. THE EC/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FCST SOME PROGRESSION TO
DEVELOP MID NEXT WEEK...WITH THE E PAC TROF MOVING ONSHORE. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE WRN RIDGE THRU ONTO THE PLAINS THU...WITH THE TROF
MOVING THRU FRI.

ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAWN SUN. THIS TROF WILL
RAPIDLY DEPART...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROF SUN
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO ARRIVE MON NIGHT. THEN
IT`S QUIET NW FLOW WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS UNTIL THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVERHEAD THU.

SURFACE: THE WARM FRONT FCST TO BE OVER NEB/KS AT DAYBREAK SUN WILL
CONT E. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL RACE SE AND CROSS THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY NOSES IN TUE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA AS A
WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT E OF THE
REGION WED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMTH PROBABLE THU. CYCLOGENESIS WILL
ENSUE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU NIGHT OR FRI.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: PROBABLY A NICE START WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS. ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN NIGHT: LFQ OF 120 KT UPR-LVL JET AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVE
THRU. NOT MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT.

RAISED LOW TEMPS TO JUST ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE RAIN. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE EC/GFS/GEM OUTPUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. THE 18Z NAM HAD SOME
BUT THE 00Z WAS DRY. THIS LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY SPRINKLES...BUT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN TO WET THE PAVEMENT IS FEW LOCATIONS.
THINK MEASURING .01" LOOKS SLIM.

YOU MAY NOTICE THE FCST READS LIGHT RAIN WITH LOW TEMPS FCST JUST
BELOW FRZG IN A FEW LOCATIONS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THIS TEMP
DROP SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PRECIP THREAT IS OVER AND CLOUDS ARE
DECREASING.

MON: ANOTHER DECENT START...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. MILD TEMPS
AGAIN.

MON NIGHT: SOME SPRINKLES OR A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AS ANOTHER UPR-LVL
JET STREAK AND TROF SKIRT BY. THIS ONE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
POTENT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST N AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
AGAIN...THE CHANCE OF MEASURING .01" IS SLIM.

TUE-THU: DRY AND MILD. TUE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON TEMPS
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. THE 18Z/00Z GFS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS
WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF. AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS E...THE STRATUS
WILL AS WELL.

THU COULD BE INCREDIBLY WARM AND BELIEVE THE FCST IS NOT NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH YET. NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE AS LONG AS IT`S NOT SPOILED
BY CLOUDS. THE LAST 2 EC RUNS ARE 14C AND ABOVE AT 850 MB. 20C IS
CLOSE TO THE SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD
SEE WIDESPREAD 70S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 DOWN BY STOCKTON.

IF THU PLAYS OUT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WE COULD SEE CRITICAL OR
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
FUELS SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FROM THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON FEB 2ND.

FRI: BRZY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT MEANS THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BE N OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO ENTRAIN MUCH
MOISTURE. SO PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AS OF
THIS FORECAST FEEL THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
PATCHY AND HAVE PUT IT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW AT KEAR. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE JUST WEST OF THE KEAR AREA AND DO EXPECT THESE TO
MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE HIGH END IFR...BUT
HAVE KEPT THE CEILINGS MVFR FOR NOW...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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