Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161717
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1117 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A fairly nice start to the weekend is expected across the local
area today as a cold front approaches from the north.

Expect light winds to start the day as the local area will be
situated in the surface trough preceding the cold front...with a
shift and slight increase in winds to a more northeasterly
direction around midday as the cold front begins sag across the
local area. While temperatures aloft will begin to drop by mid-
afternoon...expect most areas to not experience the cooler air
associated with this front until Sunday as the coolest air will
still lag the initial frontal passage. As a result...expect most
areas to actually top out near...or potentially a degree or two
above yesterdays highs. The one exception could be across our far
north...primarily north of highway 92...where afternoon
temperatures will likely begin to feel the effects of this cooler
airmass before the time of peak heating comes around.

In addition to the cooler air...expect increasing high clouds
throughout the day...with these clouds continuing to thicken some
this evening and overnight. While cooler air will also be
filtering in across the region overnight...these thicker clouds
aloft should help soften overnight temperatures just a bit...with
most locations expected to bottom out in the mid 20s. As surface
temperatures approach dewpoints overnight and soundings still
indicate dry air in the mid levels...contemplated adding a bit of
drizzle towards early Sunday morning...but the better signal for
this in the QPF fields appears further west...and kept it out of
the forecast for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A cool start to the extended periods is expected behind this
afternoons cold front...with a return to above normal
temperatures to start the week. As a result...expect a rebound
from high temperatures only near 40 on Sunday...to widespread
lower to mid 50s possible Monday through Wednesday afternoons.
For comparison...climatology suggests we should see high
temperatures in the mid 30s across the majority of the local area
this time of year. At the same time...the local area will remain
dry...as split flow will keep any chance for precipitation through
mid-week away from the region.

Later in the extended periods...models are now coming into better
agreement with changes towards the middle and latter half to the
work week...with a strong cold front and upper level system
splitting as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday...cutting off an upper level low across the desert
southwest by Friday with widespread cold air filtering in across
the local area along with the shot for some accumulating snowfall
Thursday. While there is still plenty of uncertainty with how
much moisture we will actually see...with the very cold air
associated with this cold front...even a couple of hundredths of
liquid precipitation will likely result in accumulating snowfall
across the region. At this time...the GFS is indicating about a
tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation is possible...with the EC
indicating closer to a third of an inch of liquid precipitation is
possible. But while actual snowfall totals are uncertain...with
blustery north winds accompanying this front Thursday...expect
reduced visibilities in areas that do receive snow...along with
wind chills expected to drop into the single digits by Thursday
afternoon. Due to the significant impact this storm could have on
travel late in the week...along with the fact it will likely be
the coldest airmass of the season...thus far...opted to mention it
in the morning hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Cloud heights will lower during the TAF period behind a cold
frontal boundary overnight. MVF ceilings are already noted
upstream at VTN and these lower clouds will advance south
tonight into Sunday. The NAM is the most aggressive with the low
clouds and suggests the potential for LIFR ceilings mainly near
KEAR and locations to the west, but attm have went with scattered
IFR and ceilings at MVFR but it will be something to monitor. The
NAM also suggests the potential for dz/fzdz but with no support
from other models have kept the forecast dry. Would not be
surprised to see some patchy fog develop, however wind speeds look
to remain steady enough to help hold up visibilities.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Fay



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