Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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084
FXUS63 KGID 220555
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The high cirrus clouds will gradually thin out giving us clear
skies prior to dawn for most areas helping to increase radiational
cooling. Areas of frost seem like a good bet with temperatures
already falling into the 30s at many locations and dewpoint
depressions of only a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The main concern in the near short term is the strong gusty
northwest winds. Winds were a bit stronger than forecast
today with similar speeds as yesterday, but from the northwest.
Expect winds to continue to be strong through the early evening,
but decrease from west to east as the pressure gradient lets up
some as the surface front moves eastward and high pressure builds
in to the southern plains.

Skies will clear this evening, and with cold air filtering in,
temperatures tonight will be cool. Lows look to be in the upper
20s to low 30s. Temperatures for north central Kansas are forecast
to be between 32 and 36 degrees with frost being a concern. A
frost advisory was issued earlier and it looks on track for
tonight.

On Sunday surface high pressure will slide south of the area which
will allow winds to be westerly. Light westerly downslope winds
and clear skies will help temperatures rebound. Highs are expected
to be near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

There are a few different things to focus on for the extended
forecast. 1. Windy conditions Monday and Tuesday, 2. Fire weather
concerns, 3. Cold and possible snow for the end of the
week/weekend.

1. Wind:
A cold front will move through early Monday as an upper
disturbance dives south over the Central Plains. Northwesterly
winds behind this front are expected to be strong. Thus, increased
winds for Monday and Tuesday as the upper disturbance is overhead
with strong winds aloft. As these winds mix down during the day,
expect northwest winds to be between 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35
mph possible. Not quite as windy as Today and Yesterday have
been, but still quite windy.

2. Fire Weather:
The disturbance for the early part of the week also ushers in
much drier air. Relative humidity values are currently forecast to
be between 20 and 30 percent across the area. Monday has the
lowest RH values with all of south central Nebraska and north
central Kansas around 25% or less. For Tuesday and Wednesday those
areas with 20-25% are along and west of a line from Lexington, NE
to Osborne, KS. In addition to low RH values, as mentioned in
section 1. Northwesterly winds will be breezy and easily exceed 20
mph. The areas highlighted above are all near-critical for fire
danger. If the RH values are dropped just a little in later
forecasts, could see a Red Flag Warning being issued. The first 3
days of the work week should be watched for these conditions as
dew point/moisture forecasts are generally better as the period
nears.

3. Cold and possible Snow:
For the later half of the work week, another potent upper
disturbance will dive south from Canada. This disturbance will
push another cold front through the region...but expect this to be
some of the coldest air the area has experienced this season. I
expect that all frost/freeze headlines will be completed by the
end of next weekend if all pans out as it looks today. The front
looks to move through early Thursday with cold air infiltrating
Thursday into Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday
morning currently look like they could be in the upper 20s to low
30s with Friday night into Saturday morning seeing temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s across south central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. Highs on Friday and Saturday are currently
forecasted to be in the 40s and 50s. There is still a chance for
precipitation along this front on Thursday, but do not have a lot
of confidence in how much or how widespread this will be. This is
a strong disturbance, so it should have enough lift to help induce
some precipitation, but it will not have a lot of moisture to
work with. Depending on if/when there is precipitation, some of it
could fall as snow. Watch this period as well as details are fine
tuned as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The wind will be much lighter today and generally from the west
through much of the day becoming more southerly by late afternoon.
The thin high clouds at present will thin out and we should see
clear skies through much of the day with scattered mid to high
clouds moving back in this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Could see Near-critical to critical fire weather from Monday
through Wednesday. Dry air moving in behind a cold front on Monday
will cause relative humidity values to be between 20 and 30
percent across the area during the afternoon hours through mid-
week. Relative humidity values on the lower end, 20-25% are
possible across the area Monday and then along and west of a line
from Lexington, NE to Osborne, KS for Tuesday and Wednesday.
These RH values and strong winds will cause near-critical fire
weather conditions each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. The
relative humidity forecast is something to watch as the dew point
temperatures are fine tuned in later forecasts. If RH values drop
just a little, a Red Flag Warning is very possible any of these
days.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright



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