Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 031952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER.  EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN.  HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP.  IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE.  EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH IS A FACTOR TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. WHICH MEANS THE TRI STATE
AREA REMAINS IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY... AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY... AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO SOON
TO KNOW FOR SURE IF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

MEANWHILE... BACK TO OUR CURRENT PATTERN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AN OVERCAST LAYER
AFFECTING SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY THWART THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN AS TO DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS...ONLY PLACED A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS. FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGLD IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGLD...BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. A BROKEN LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK


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