Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201927
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.

CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.

FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.

PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN VCSH FOR THE PRECIPITATION AT
EITHER LOCATION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024




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