Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING
50 DEGREES. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A
LEE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
LOCATION OF THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS WHAT CAUSED THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED OVER WYOMING...IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS THIS HAPPENS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND
UNDER ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COOL...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SHOWER DEVELOP. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN FIVE
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AND ONLY A FEW SNOW FLURRIES.

OTHER THAN THIS ANTICIPATED SYSTEM...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER WITH A
DISTINCT WARMING TREND BEGINNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD
EXCEED THE 60 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COUPLE WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE TO MOVE
ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PERIODIC
INCREASES AND DECREASES IN CLOUD COVER AS THESE WAVES MOVE
ACROSS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE WAVES.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE
TO THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW...A DEEPER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE FROM MONTANA TO NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING NEAR SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO HELP
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP NEAR RECORD READINGS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS AN OPEN TROUGH THAT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF WAVES IN RAPID SUCCESSION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF KMCK. SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KGLD SO
INSERTED VCSH INTO THE TAF. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN) IS
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BRIEFLY WITH
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN WEST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BRIEF CLEARING LIKELY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


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