Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...the area seeing a slow
transition finally from the hot conditions seen over the past few
days. A cold front is trudging slowly southward into the region.
Currently...northern locales only seeing 2-5 degrees drop from
earlier highs which is enough in some locales to go from mid 90s to
the upper 80s. Trend to continue as afternoon progresses. A
shortwave moving across the region this morning has cleared allowing
for northerly gusty winds for the entire CWA.

For the rest of the afternoon on into the evening hours...with the
front continuing on a slow trip south thru the area. Do expect
rw/trw to begin developing. SPC still has the CWA under a slight
risk for severe trw potential into the early evening hours.
Instability enough to warrant some storms that could develop large
hail and damaging winds for NE colorado to start...shifting across
the CWA into early evening.

The frontal boundary does get hung up across west central portions
of Kansas/eastern Colorado overnight and on thru Friday due to
strong ridging from the north and a stagnant low over eastern
NM/western TX. This set up will allow for persistent cloud cover for
the area as ESE surface winds work over the area. The upslope
component will aid in keeping the clouds in especially for western
zones...along with the chance for light showers. Weak instability
present ahead of the boundary as it trudges south on an
isolated trw possible overnight/Friday.

For temps...increased clouds...the chance for precip and weak CAA
will allow for overnight lows to drop mainly into the near
60F in the far east. Going into Friday...with the focus for more
cloud cover over western zones due to the easterly flow....looking
for highs to be cooler west in the lower 70s...with mid to even spot
upper 70s east/northeast where some thinning of cloud cover possible
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Friday night: Clouds build into the area from west to east with most
areas staying dry. Lows below normal with most places around 50.

Saturday-Sunday: With an inverted trough at the surface, easterly
upslope surface winds, abundant moisture at 700mb, and NW flow
aloft, expect to see a chance of showers during this period
through Sunday evening. Temperatures will be below normal as much
as 15 degrees from climatological highs and lows for some areas.
Models now show Sunday being the colder day of the two which may
be a result of the delay in colder air filtering into the area and
expected overcast skies for most of the day.

Monday-Thursday: Active weather for the CWA should continue for this
period. For Monday evening, NW flow aloft will work to enhance a
slight chance of isolated strong to severe storms. Hail and wind
look to be the primary threats of any storms that are able to form.
For Tuesday through Wednesday, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Winds are forecasted to be
fairly breezy on Tuesday with gusts over 25 mph. Temperatures
gradually warm through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

For both taf sites...looking for VFR conditions at this time.
Frontal boundary set to push south thru the region during the
forecast period. Will see scattered mid and high clouds give way
to BKN050 aft 00z Friday. Big question is timing of front and
chance for convection to fire up. Best chances will occur KGLD
and south...but low confidence in timing so will only have VCTS in
for now and await initiation of convection to better time any
thunder. Winds NNE 15-30kts...w/ a period for both sites around
10kts between 03z-13z Friday.




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