Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 312000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



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