Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280828
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Water vapor imagery indicates short wave energy emerging out of
the Desert Southwest and into the Texas Panhandle region during
the predawn hours. Elevated convection has developed from central
Kansas into central and western Oklahoma owing to isentropic
upglide. Some of this activity may very well spread into western
Missouri early this morning. However, this activity will be
running into a more hostile environment with weaker CAPEs and
lower precipitable water values across western Missouri.

As that wave approaches the Ozarks later today, additional showers
and thunderstorms will develop due to the increasing lift and a
weak capping inversion. An old convergence zone/frontal boundary
stretching from west to east across central Missouri may provide
at least one area of focus for thunderstorm activity. Otherwise,
scattered to perhaps numerous coverage of convection is expected
throughout the area. An overall lack of deep layer shear will
preclude any kind of appreciable severe threat today. However,
there will be enough instability around for nickel to perhaps
quarter size hail from a few storms. Theta-e differentials will
also support a threat for wind gusts over 50 mph. Temperatures
today should not get quite as warm over western Missouri given
more in the way of cloud cover and precipitation. We are generally
looking at upper 70s to lower 80s over most areas.

Leftover activity will then remain possible into this evening. We
may then see a brief lull in coverage before thunderstorm
chances increase again later tonight due to a strengthening low
level jet/isentropic upglide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Yet another upper level short wave trough will then slowly move
east across the central/southern Plains on Friday. Increasing
lift ahead of this wave will once again initiate scattered to
numerous thunderstorms across the Ozarks from Friday into Friday
evening. Meanwhile, an approaching wave from the northwest will
then push a cold front into the Ozarks from late Friday night into
Saturday. This will provide yet another focus for showers and
thunderstorms.

Confidence has actually decreased as to when precipitation will
then come to an end with this passing front. Models bring a
surface wave up this feature during the day on Saturday. This
would certainly slow its progress. Global models then hang the 850
mb front up across far south-central Missouri into Sunday. We have
therefore held onto at least chance PoPs into Sunday across south-
central Missouri.

With multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected, hydro concerns are
certainly there. We considered the issuance of a Flash Flood
Watch with this forecast package. After collaboration with
surrounding offices, we decided to hold off on a watch as the
threat for widespread heavier rainfall will not come until later
Friday into Friday night (late 3rd/4th period). That is not to say
that there will not be localized areas of heavy rainfall today or
tonight.

Models then continue to struggle with the fate of that upper level
energy as it moves southeast across the Mid/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Both the GFS and now the ECMWF close off that low to our
south from Monday into Tuesday. It then becomes cut off from the
main flow. The Canadian model still keeps it progressive and moves
it out into the Ohio Valley by later Monday. If the GFS/ECMWF are
correct, that may keep the door open for isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms early next week. Regardless, early next
week looks cooler behind that cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The main adjustment to the 06Z tafs will be to account for
decaying complex of storms to the west of our airports during the
overnight and early morning hours. Distance speed tool estimates
the storms reaching the Joplin area around 9-10Z with an hour or
two lag before reaching Springfield and Branson if they can
maintain themselves.

Otherwise will continue the trend of keeping mainly VFR ceilings
with vicinity thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast
period as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an advancing upper
level trough and deepening surface front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry




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