Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 201118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAFS...OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS CONTINUE AT KMLU
BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR ONE OR TWO HRS AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG AND N OF I-30
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. KTXK
SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AS MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE OTHER TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 21/12Z. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT OF A WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO
BEGIN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTHWEST ZONES LATER TODAY. BY TONIGHT...THE
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT OVER OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. SLOW MOVEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO OTHER AREAS...BUT WITH THE HIGHER
QFP REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
EAST EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST QFP OF ONE HALF TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT BECOMES MORE FOCUSED. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE FOUR STATE REGION BUT ONLY A MINOR AND
SHORT LIVED TEMPERATURE DROP. SURFACE WIND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LACKING AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAYS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  80  61  79 /  10  20  40  50  10
MLU  81  57  80  60  79 /  10  20  30  50  20
DEQ  79  58  77  58  79 /  10  40  50  60  10
TXK  79  59  78  59  79 /  10  40  50  70  10
ELD  80  57  78  59  77 /  10  30  40  60  10
TYR  78  59  79  61  80 /  10  30  50  40  10
GGG  80  58  79  61  80 /  10  30  40  40  10
LFK  81  59  81  62  81 /  10  20  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/09





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