Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 071224
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR/VFR with worse case in E TX improving
Eastward. Calm wind on the sfc is light E aloft only up to 3-4kft
then calm and flipping back to W, with increasing speed on up to
near 100KTS abv FL300. The clouds are dragging on the ground in
TX, but lift and scatter with VFR cigs along I-20 from KRSN to
KMLU. At this time we have little mid or high clouds, but they are
coming fast over N TX. An Arctic fropa will slide in overnight w/
some -RA and N/NE wind 10-20KTS. Skies will clear out Thurs. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A stubborn stratus deck encompassed the Four-State Region early this
morning, with intermittent periods of drizzle/light rain accompanying
the cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover, moist grounds from
recent rainfall have allowed for the development of fog with
visibilities restricted to less than 5 miles at some locations.
Any lingering fog will scour out by mid-morning, but as sfc winds
veer to the east southeast /upslope component/, the low cloud
cover will persist and subsequently, so will bouts of drizzle/light
rain. Temps will therefore remain below seasonal norms /40s and
50s/. This evening-tonight, a longwave trough will move from the
Rockies onto the Plains and will send a breezy cold front across
the region /15-20 mph especially across far east TX which is
nearing Lake Wind Advisory criteria/. Model solutions continue to
show chances for light rain, not frozen precip, as the associated
CAA will not arrive concurrent with the fropa.

The main weather feature with the cold front is and continues to be
the rather cold Arctic air that will blanket southeast OK and the
ARKLATEX by tomorrow tonight/early Friday morning. 850 mb temps
between 0C to -5C suggest temps plummeting into the teens across
southeast OK and portions of southwest AR, with lower 20s elsewhere.
Do not believe the MOS guidance temps is handling the cold air well,
as it shows temps in the middle to upper 20s. Can not ignore that a
1045 mb sfc ridge is the driving force behind this front and as
such, this will be the coldest air since the Winter of 2015.
Furthermore, the anticipated area-wide freeze is nearing Hard Freeze
criteria, so remain vigilant and take the necessary precautions such
as: covering sensitive vegetation, bring pets indoors and covering
exposed outdoor pipes.

A return to southerly sfc flow will take place by the weekend, hence
daytime temps will recover from the 30s and 40s Thursday-Friday, to
the 50s and a few 60s by late weekend into early next week. Rainfall
chances may return as well by late weekend, as an ul shortwave
trough translates east across the central Plains and central
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  37  42  22 /  10  30  20   0
MLU  56  38  43  21 /  10  30  20   0
DEQ  48  29  39  17 /  20  30   0   0
TXK  50  32  39  20 /  20  30  10   0
ELD  51  33  40  20 /  20  30  10   0
TYR  58  34  40  21 /  10  30  10   0
GGG  57  35  41  21 /  10  30  20   0
LFK  63  41  44  24 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29


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