Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 202217
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
517 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Dealing with some scattered convection at this time which may
influence the TXK/ELD/GGG/TYR and LFK terminals over the next 1-3
hours, otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the
next 24 hours. CU/Mid Level AC and Cirrus debris should give way
to mostly SKC during the overnight hours before we see the cu
field begin to condense once again between 14-16z areawide on
Monday. Cannot rule out some ceilings at this height as well
beyond 16z and continuing in and out throughout the afternoon
hours on Monday. Some isolated to widely scattered afternoon
convection will be possible on Monday, mainly after 17z or so but
coverage does not warrant a mention in this package.

Winds will be light and variable through the night except for an
occasional stronger gust associated with a random outflow boundary
through 03z or so with a return to south to southeast winds during
the day Monday mainly less than 10kts.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Shwrs/tstms have developed across portions of N LA/E TX. The HRRR
model data seems to be initializing very well, and the latest run
indicates that convection will diminish around 00Z. Have left PoPs
out of the overnight forecast as a result.

Monday will be another hot day, although most likely not as warm
as today. Some areas very close to Heat Advisory criteria, but
have decided /in collaboration with surrounding offices/ to hold
off on issuance and defer to the midnight shift. There appears at
least a decent shot that the solar eclipse will be visible from
most areas, as far as cloud cover is concerned. Areas that will be
most prone to obstruction due to cloud cover will be along and
north of I-30. Convection may also be an issue for some, as we
will likely see some isold to possibly sct development around
midday through sunset.

Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, but Wednesday will
bring some changes. Upper ridge will build back in over the
Rockies, allowing the upper trof over the nern CONUS to deepen as
a disturbance rounds the base and sweeps a cold front into our
region. Good chances for shwrs/tstms will accompany the front as
it slowly drifts swd through Friday. Front will stall s of our
area and begin to move back nwd during next weekend, keeping our
fcst wet through the end of the pd. Increased coverage of
convection and cloud cover will most likely knock our temps back
down to below seasonal normals. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  96  76  95 /  10  30  10  10
MLU  76  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  20
DEQ  75  93  74  94 /  10  30  10  30
TXK  75  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  20
ELD  75  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  20
TYR  76  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  10
LFK  75  96  74  95 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13



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