Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 012347
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS...RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AND POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AS WELL AND
IS GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. ONCE THE STRATOCU
DEPARTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES...A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SKC CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
MONDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /  10   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

09



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