Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 061452
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW TO CONTINUE OUR WELCOME DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

CURRENT GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED.  /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...WE ARE STILL CALM IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE MS RIVER. ALOFT...WE ARE LIGHT
NORTHELRY AND WILL BE NE TO SE BY LATE THIS CYCLE. JUST A FEW OR
SCATTERED THINK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND AN OVERALL GOOD START TO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHELRY FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE MID SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OUR WEST AND MOVING IN
FOR LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BECOME
A MORE INFLUENTIAL PLAYER ON OUR WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THIS WILL SPELL CONTINUED DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING 80 DEGREES AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LIFT OVER OUR REGION. A
FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NW HALF THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY BUT THE THREAT OF TSTMS WILL REALLY RAMP
UP ON MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND INCREASING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AND BOUYANT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH THE THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MOST LIKELY...BUT SHEAR PROFILES DO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ADVANCING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH A SFC
RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE ECMWF IS INDICATING
THE FRONT MAKING IT SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THESE SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK STILL DO NOT
APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITH STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  56  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  79  53  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  80  55  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  79  52  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  83  56  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  84  57  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VIII.



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