Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
608 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

For the 27/12z TAFs, convection will persist across much of the
area through at least 28/00z, although coverage should become
increasingly scattered through the day. Scattered showers will
persist after 28/00z but current thinking is that the chances of
any TAF sites being impacts are too low to warrant a mention.
Flight conditions will vary between MVFR and LIFR due to the rain,
but most locations should see a slow improvement as the rain
coverage decreases. However, MVFR/IFR, and possibly LIFR,
conditions are likely tonight and through the end of the TAF
period as low clouds develop and patchy fog develops. Fog will be
most likely in areas that receive rain.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

For the 27/06Z TAFs, MVFR conditions overtaking most terminals to
begin this period as ceilings lower in locations with showers and
thunderstorms. Thunder is still best handled with TEMPO conditions
but could become better organized on through Monday morning as an
upper level disturbance shifts eastward across TX into our region.
Ceilings will likely continue to deteriorate with mostly MVFR and
occasional IFR conditions possible through much of Monday morning
as convection increases and expands farther east into the region.
Convection should begin to wane during Monday afternoon with just
isolated activity still possible through the end of the TAF cycle.
Otherwise, mainly sely winds between 5-10 kts to prevail with some
occasional higher gusts invof on convection.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

Showers and thunderstorms pushing east across northeast Texas,
southern Arkansas, and extreme north Louisiana at this time due to
enhanced low-level warm advection in the vicinity of a warm front.
As the morning progresses, convection to develop south of
Interstate 20, becoming more widespread through mid to late
morning before diminishing slightly through the early afternoon. A
somewhat enhanced pressure gradient between a surface high in the
Atlantic and a low in the Great Plains to allow for south winds
around 10 to 15 mph today. High temperatures this afternoon to
range from around 70 near De Queen to near 80 in Lufkin. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms persisting overnight with lows in the

Severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning across the entire ArkLaTex with an enhanced threat
focused mainly north of Interstate 20. Ingredients supporting
severe weather threat are a moist unstable airmass, an approaching
upper-level trough, a strong low-level jet, and an approaching
surface cold front to focus convection. However, despite these
several ingredients supporting the possibility of severe weather,
other inhibiting factors somewhat complicate the forecast.
First, warm sector diurnally driven storm development may be
limited by the lack of a surface focus. Second, clouds will
likely limit the heating necessary to initiate convection. Thus,
it appears that severe weather threat will be confined to
approaching frontal boundary late in the evening in conjunction
with 500 mb height falls. Damaging winds and hail will be the
biggest threat with isolated tornadoes possible due to strong
shear just ahead of frontal boundary where southerly flow
interacts with eastern migration of front.

Severe weather threat pushes east on Wednesday morning as squall
line develops along front and spreads east across southern
Arkansas and north Louisiana. Front should exit the region by
midday Wednesday with high pressure building in its wake.
Temperatures behind the front to range from highs in the 60s to
lows in the 40s though Saturday. Surface high to shift east of the
region on Saturday evening bringing a return flow of gulf moisture
and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.


SHV  76  65  82  65 /  60  30  30  30
MLU  75  65  83  67 /  70  30  30  30
DEQ  69  58  76  56 /  40  30  40  60
TXK  71  62  78  60 /  50  30  40  50
ELD  72  62  80  63 /  50  30  40  40
TYR  77  64  80  59 /  60  20  40  50
GGG  77  65  81  62 /  50  20  40  40
LFK  80  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  30




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