Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291025
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

PALMER/13


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