Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242043
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS/WRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 454...

VALID 242043Z - 242215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 454 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD
REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCH TO THE EAST OR SOUTH OF
WW 454 LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES APPEAR UNDERWAY IN WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.  HOWEVER...A REMNANT CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER
LAGGING TO ITS SOUTHWEST IS STILL NEAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO NEW ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN INDIANA.  STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
NEAR THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
INDIANAPOLIS...BUT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

CONTINUING TORNADIC POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN
DISCRETE IN NATURE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT COULD STILL SUPPORT AN
ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

..KERR.. 08/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   40448709 40648622 40168454 39618401 38928535 38638730
            38988850 39918830 40448709



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