Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231914
SCZ000-GAZ000-232045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southern GA and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231914Z - 232045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There is a very small threat for localized wind damage
associated with storms this afternoon. Watch issuance will not be
necessary.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is located just west of the
discussion area. Along and ahead of this boundary, flow throughout
the depth of the troposphere is very weak (e.g., around 10 knots at
500 mb over most of the area), thus, organized storm modes are not
expected. However, ahead of the front, moderate buoyancy is in place
with limited capping owing to diabatic heating of a moist boundary
layer characterized by lower to middle 70s surface dewpoints.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will continue
through the afternoon, focused along the Atlantic sea breeze, the
front, and other weak pre-frontal convergence axes. Most storms that
develop are unlikely to be severe, but there is a small chance that
a couple of storms could briefly produce wind damage with wet
microbursts, given DCAPE upwards of 1000-1250 J/kg. Poor mid-level
lapse rates will greatly temper convective-scale vertical
accelerations, greatly limiting the severe risk amidst weak deep
shear.

..Cohen/Clark/Coniglio/Darrow.. 08/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31698105 31108135 31018194 31288251 32078275 32978229
            33768135 33698029 33367926 32767978 32238071 31698105



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