Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260454
TXZ000-NMZ000-260530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Areas affected...the Texas South Plains into parts of the Permian
Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260454Z - 260530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The corridor for 50-60 kt gusts will likely remain
confined to areas northwest/west of Lubbock and north/east of
Plainview during the next hour with a southward-migrating squall
line.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line from the TX
South Plains southwestward into southeastern NM.  Measured severe
gusts at multiple West TX Mesonet stations have observed gusts
ranging from 50-71 kt during the past hour ---peak gust of 71-kt at
Muleshoe.  Despite nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer and a
low-level stable inversion, a MCV and associated rear-inflow jet
will likely aid at least a risk for isolated severe gusts for the
next hour and perhaps longer.  Yet, the additional need for a severe
watch due to a severe risk persisting for 3 or more hours south of
the ongoing squall line/severe watch 370 is in doubt.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32380408 34360252 34870099 34370089 33090171 32090317
            32060380 32380408



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