Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 011846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011845
MIZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...

VALID 011845Z - 012015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING TSTMS
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADO CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA. A NARROW SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
DEVELOPING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH BREAKS IN THE LINE HAVE EXHIBITED
OCCASIONAL STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN PARTS OF KALKASKA AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN THE NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS...OTHER STRONGER
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THE ENTIRE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REST
OF NORTHERN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN WITH SRN EXTENT
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID-LEVEL WIND
MAX EJECTING ACROSS LAKE MI ATTM...AND A MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MOST ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITHIN
THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WAS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST GRATIOT AND
EASTERN ISABELLA COUNTIES INTO MIDLAND COUNTY NOW. KMOP...MT.
PLEASANT ASOS...NEAR THE APEX OF THE SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENT OF
CONVECTION...RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST NEAR 30KT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTH APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED/INTENSE AND
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
MARGINAL/TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WHERE DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING WEAKEN
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT.

..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   44938491 46638512 46698453 46408373 45288294 44508279
            43748269 43018261 42358324 41848359 41798416 41818502
            41908590 42498582 43608497 44268489 44938491




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