Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241008

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.


A cold front is currently analyzed across the Gulf waters from
27N82W SW to 25N84W where it becomes stationary continuing SW to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Near gale NW to N winds are
occurring S of 21N W of 95W. The wind field will increase into
gale force this afternoon as the cold front pushes through the SW
Gulf waters. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 17N58W to 07N59W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of strong vertical wind shear. However, shallow moisture and an
upper trough in the W Atlc with base reaching Suriname support
scattered showers and tstms from 06N-20N between 50W-61W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 06N35W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
12N between 20W-50W.



A vigorous broad middle to upper level trough progressing
eastward over the E CONUS continue to support a cold front
extending from 27N82W SW to 25N84W where it becomes stationary
continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Middle level
diffluent flow across the southern half of the basin along with
shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered showers and
tstms over the Bay of Campeche and between the stationary front
and the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and tstms are ahead of
the cold front in the SE Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge is
building in the wake of the front supporting near gale force winds
in the SW Gulf and fresh to strong winds S of 21N W of
95W...however expected to increase to gale force this afternoon
through tonight. Moderate NNE winds are elsewhere W of the front.
A secondary reinforcing cold front, currently across northern
Louisiana and portions of western Texas, is expected to enter the
NW basin today increasing the northerly winds across much of the
basin into Wednesday. Strong high pressure in wake of the front
will build in across New Mexico and Texas...and into the western
Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday.


An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
NW Caribbean just N of eastern Honduras and continues to provide
an overall divergent environment aloft that supports scattered
showers and tstms in the vicinity of a 1008 mb low over NE
Nicaragua adjacent waters and the W Caribbean S of 21N W of 75W.
Strong high pressure N of the area supports fresh to strong winds
in the south-central basin S of 15N between 69W-74W. Otherwise, a
tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles will cross the Islands
later this morning with showers. A cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move across the Yucatan channel into the NW Caribbean
Wed morning followed by northerly fresh to strong winds.


Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island today continuing through Wednesday along with moderate
to fresh trades.


Scattered showers and tstms are in the far NW forecast waters N of
27N W of 74W ahead of a cold front forecast to enter this region
later this morning. The front will move SE across the Bahamas
through Thu morning along with fresh to strong winds. The front
then will stall before dissipating Friday. Farther east, an upper
level low supports a surface trough extending from 26N57W to
20N59W with scattered heavy showers and tstms occurring from 20N-
29N between 50W-61W. This area lies SW of a cold front extending
into the discussion area near 30N36W SW to 27N46W. Surface
ridging dominates elsewhere.

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