Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 021047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 30.1W AT 02/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 410 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 9
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS CURRENTLY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 6N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SSMI TPW DOES
NOT SHOW ANY SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N71W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N72W MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT AND
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SSMI
TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N W
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W TO 15N22W THEN RESUMES S OF TROPICAL STORM FRED
NEAR 12N30W ALONG 9N39W TO 7N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 31N-45W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 39W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 10W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS INTO THE
GULF NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE
W GULF AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W AND N OF 24N FROM 90W-
94W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF
NEAR 30N84W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W THEN SW TO 27N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 85W AND WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N83W TO 23N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE NW GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
OVER TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO
THE E/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-83W AND N OF 20N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM
22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-69W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS S OF PANAMA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TODAY. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HAITI AND THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SE EARLY THU.
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THU
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND
TODAY AND EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 27N73W TO 26N53W. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N55W TO 29N57W AND IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 25N42W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
22N56W THEN TO OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N37W ALONG 30N38W TO 28N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 52W-71W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N69W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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