Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF
27.5N WITHIN 210 NM SE OF FRONT S WITH SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 15
HOURS LATER OR 06/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
01N35W AND EXTENDS TO 01N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
08N49W TO 00N49W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS
TO BRAZIL AT 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-
06N BETWEEN 10W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-
04N BETWEEN 30W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N94W. FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE SW GULF FROM TAMPICO MEXICO S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 20-25 KT SW FLOW
IS E OF FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 81W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 03 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE
OUT OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 83W-89W. A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
NORTH COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT
31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 21N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N42W. A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 34N14W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND REACH 31N68W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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