Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N32W TO 10N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND
COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 06N30W. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TPW THAT DEVIATES NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 18N69W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ACROSS THE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
07N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 04N31W TO 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND
29W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 39W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN GULF SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY WELL
INLAND OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE COASTLINE OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...SUPPORTED
BY THE SHORTWAVE. DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N93W TO
18N93W...MOVING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE NORTHERN GULF. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO CUBA
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
13N BETWEEN 75W TO 80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED
UNDER THIS REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
TO 75W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE
ISLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS
CURRENTLY PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 31N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N69W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W
AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND
67W. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N49W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THESE FEATURES
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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