909
AXNT20 KNHC 041609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southward to 07N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N22W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
found south of 04N between 26W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough analyzed across the Louisiana nearshore waters
is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Otherwise, broad subtropical ridging dominates the remainder of
the basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas are noted south of 25N and west of 90W. Light to gentle
easterly winds and slight seas prevail across the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered just east of Florida and lower pressures in the western
Gulf will support moderate to locally fresh winds over the
majority of the Gulf of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse at night into late next week near
the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough extends from the western Atlantic southwest
to Puerto Rico, with a secondary trough analyzed across the
Leeward Islands. These troughs provide a focused area of lift and,
combined with rich tropical moisture, are leading to scattered
showers and thunderstorms east of 70W, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring
a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico. See local weather advisories
for more information. Mariners should also be aware of the
potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area
of showers and thunderstorms.

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades
and slight to moderate seas are noted in the southeast Caribbean,
while mainly moderate easterly winds and slight seas are observed
in the northwestern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds in the
northwestern Caribbean will continue through Mon night. Similar
winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast
period. A surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic
into the northeastern Caribbean continues to support numerous
thunderstorms east of 73W. This activity is moving east and is
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical
ridge centered between Bermuda and the southeast US coast. A
generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions
west of 68W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 28N50W
to Puerto Rico. South of 25N and west of the trough, moderate NE
to E winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Numerous
thunderstorms are along and east of the trough, extending east to
a line from 30N40W to the Leeward Islands. Some of this activity
may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
1022 mb high-pressure system near the Island of Madeira. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present south of a
line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the Windward
Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western Sahara.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
shift eastward through the weekend as a cold front drops southward
over the eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of
the area Sun night. High pressure will then settle over the area
through Wed night.

$$
Nepaul