Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240229
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1029 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017


.UPDATE...
Convection has diminished over the CWA and expect generally clear
skies overnight. A sfc cold front is located across central
Georgia at 0230z...with a noticeably drier airmass in its wake. As
this front slowly continues it southward progress...should make
for a cooler night across north Georgia and an overall pleasant
day tomorrow. Convection will be largely confined to the southern
counties of the CWA in the nearest vicinity of the frontal
boundary.

Have made minor changes to the forecast this evening, mainly
updating POP trends.

Kovacik

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 738 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Current surface analysis across the local area indicates frontal
boundary is now moving through the Atlanta metro. Drier air
continues to move in behind this feature with GOES precipitable
water product indicating values only around an inch from Trenton
to Cleveland and 1.3 to 1.5 down to the i20 corridor. This is much
more significant than what models had indicated around 36 hours
ago and attributable to a quicker frontal progression. As a
result, precip coverage has been almost non existent north of the
front and have continued to cut pops with each update with only
isolated coverage in latest iteration.

South of the front is a bit of different story although even
convection here has been sparse and slow to develop. Still believe
there is a good opportunity though to realize higher values in
the high end scattered category with front, subtle shortwave and
PWs over 2 inches. Convective temps were slightly higher today
owing to the later start but now in the 90s, should have no
troubles seeing higher pop values. There are some slightly cooler
values aloft with -7C at 500mb so could see some more robust
updrafts allowing for some isolated strong storms.

The drying trend continues through Thu with PWs dropping well
below an inch across the northern tier...mainly from I20
northward. Still sufficient moisture and instability across far
southern sections for tsra activity but should be only isolated to
low end chance at best. Same cool pool aloft will be in place so
again cannot rule out and isolated strong storm during this time
period. Went with the consensus blend for temps which yield values
2 to 3 degrees lower than today for areas to the north.

Deese

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No major changes to the long term forecast. 12Z guidance not
showing too many changes. With surface ridging over our area, a
tropical low east of the Florida coast, and whatever becomes of
Harvey, the long term forecast is uncertain. Being in the middle
of these three features, we have kept in chances for rain through
the extended, which matches 12Z guidance blend. Previous
discussion follows.

3/SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
In the early part of the long term, high pressure will continue
to keep north Georgia dry for the rest of the week with low chance
pops continuing across parts of central Georgia. After Friday
confidence in the solution drops as the models struggle with a
solution to the tropical wave moving into the western Gulf and its
effects on the CWA. Will trend to climatology with slight chance
to chance pops each day beginning Saturday and continuing into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be at or just below normals.

17

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
A southward moving cold front has allowed for mostly clear and
tranquil conditions across the northern TAF sites this
evening...with diminishing showers and convective debris across
CSG and MCN. Expect an overall clearing trend overnight with some
cirrus in the vicinity. Given the post frontal airmass only expect
a FEW-SCT cu between 035-050 through the afternoon on Thursday.
Winds will remain from the NW overnight and expected to shift NE
by mid morning Thursday...though could flirt before this time
frame. Speeds will remain less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on wind shift
High on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  69  88  68 /  30  10   5   5
Atlanta         87  70  88  69 /  30  10   0   5
Blairsville     84  60  82  60 /  30   0   0   0
Cartersville    89  65  87  65 /  30   5   0   5
Columbus        95  73  92  71 /  50  30   5   5
Gainesville     89  68  86  67 /  30   5   5   5
Macon           94  72  91  71 /  50  30   5   5
Rome            91  65  87  63 /  20   5   0   5
Peachtree City  89  69  89  67 /  30  10   5   5
Vidalia         97  74  93  73 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Kovacik


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