Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 230608
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
108 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1030 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018/

Update...
Have tried to adjust pops based on radar...trimming pops some from
the northwest. Chances of thunder looking slim but not confident
enough to remove. Seeing some redevelopment across southern TN
ahead of the surface front. Temperatures not falling as rapidly and
have attempted to adjust the hourly temperatures for the next few
hours.

41

Previous...
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Upper low and better short wave energy lifting north and east of the
state as we head into the evening. Still expecting a fairly sharp
cold front and associated low-level lift to sweep through tonight.
Instability remains somewhat limited and better shear also lifting
northeast of the area, but both remain sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunder and at least a small chance for a few isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. Cold front should be
exiting the forecast area early Tuesday morning taking the
precipitation with it. Zonal upper flow keeps best cold advection
north of the state and temperatures are expected to only drop back
to around seasonal normals tomorrow and tomorrow night.

20

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

The beginning of the long-term forecast period will be dry with
temperatures warming from near normal to slightly above normal by
late week. Light rain onset associated with overrunning is expected
by Saturday. There is some model disagreement with system
evolution Saturday night into Sunday with the latest ECMWF
favoring a more northerly surface low track while the GFS is
farther south. Regardless, highest precipitation chances will peak
late Saturday into Sunday. Brief light rain/snow mix or snow
flurries still cannot be ruled out across extreme north Georgia
Sunday night, especially based on ECMWF solution. See the previous
long-term discussion below.

RW

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 246 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018/...

Models continue in close agreement with the long term. A
relatively progressive pattern will continue through the long term
with the next short wave moving across the region late Friday and
into the weekend. Guidance continues to give high pops
Saturday/Saturday night and this seems reasonable as a wedge sets
up Friday with gulf moisture overrunning the wedge Saturday.
Strong isentropic lift in the lower levels across north Georgia
Saturday should produce light rain/drizzle ahead of the deepest
moisture which doesn`t move into the CWA until late Saturday and
Saturday night. At this time instability will be minimal and
therefore will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast.

The associated cold front will move across the CWA Sunday ending the
precip from the northwest Sunday night. Colder air will spread
across the CWA Sunday night. There will also be some lingering
moisture across extreme north GA Sunday night, and with the colder
air some of the rain could be briefly mixed with light snow or
flurries before ending.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Back edge of the clouds is moving thru forecast area...IFR/MVFR
CIGs will lift and scatter rapidly this morning with clearing
skies in ATL area 10-15Z. NW winds 5-10kts with gusts possible
this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  35  56  31 /  10   5   0   0
Atlanta         54  33  52  31 /   5   5   0   0
Blairsville     47  26  47  24 /   5   5   5   0
Cartersville    52  31  51  28 /   5   5   0   0
Columbus        60  36  57  33 /   5   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  33  51  31 /   5   5   0   0
Macon           62  36  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            52  30  51  28 /   5   5   0   0
Peachtree City  56  34  54  30 /   5   5   0   0
Vidalia         68  38  60  35 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Atwell



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