Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 241139
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Fcst period characterized by gradual increase in moisture return off
the northern Gulf/Atlantic first in the form of midlevel stratocu
deck today as sfc ridge to east of area keeps conditions dry but
cloudy. Column saturates more late Saturday ahead of an approaching
cutoff low to the west and there should be enough forcing and
conditional instability to ramp up shower/storm chances by Saturday
afternoon from the NW. Orographic enhancement in the NE higher
elevations could bring some isolated showers even by Saturday
morning. For the moment the better instability and marginal shear
parameters stay just west of the area though will need to monitor if
any strong to isolated severe potential shifts eastward with later
updates. Currently SPC day 2 outlook has Marginal risk right up
against NW border.

Temps should stay about 5 degrees above climo for highs (low to
mid 70s) with reduced diurnal range from overnight mins (mid to
upper 50s) given the ample cloud coverage.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Rain chances will be rapidly on the increase by Saturday night into
Sunday as the next storm system approaches the area. A closed upper
low will tracking from the Plains into the Great Lakes region as a
trailing cold front becomes more diffuse as it traverses eastward.
While the track of the upper low will direct the best dynamics north
of our area, enough instability will be in place to include the
chance for thunderstorms during the Saturday night into Sunday time
frame. Given relatively limited forecast instability of perhaps 500-
1000 J/kg, marginal shear and diminishing mid-level support, the
chance for any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appears
lackluster at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has included a
marginal risk area across north Georgia to highlight the possibility
of a couple of stronger storms, primarily during the Sunday
afternoon timeframe.

Given the track of the storm system, the highest PoPs and associated
highest forecast rainfall totals will remain across the northwest
half of the area with rainfall coverage and totals across much of
central Georgia likely remaining fairly limited.

The pattern remains unsettled following this weekend system. The
next system will impact the area from Monday night into Tuesday
bringing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. After a
drier Wednesday, a stronger system looks to approach the area by
late Thursday into Friday. The GFS is currently advertising a more
robust solution than the ECMWF. The evolution of this system will be
monitored over coming days.

Temperatures will remain warm through the long term with highs in
the 70s and 80s through the period.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Initial low end VFR cigs near 4-6 kft persisting into afternoon
with possible scattering after about 18-22z. Expecting some
lowering again early Saturday which could reach MVFR level. Winds
staying SE at mainly 6-10 kts thru period. Precip chances on the
increase beyond the fcst period from the NW by late Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on afternoon/overnight cig trend.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  53  74  57 /   0   0  20  60
Atlanta         72  56  72  58 /   5   0  30  70
Blairsville     63  50  65  53 /  10  20  30  90
Cartersville    71  54  72  57 /   5   0  40  80
Columbus        77  58  76  59 /   0   0  30  60
Gainesville     68  53  69  56 /   5   5  30  80
Macon           76  55  77  58 /   0   0  20  40
Rome            72  54  72  57 /   5   0  50  90
Peachtree City  73  53  73  56 /   0   0  30  60
Vidalia         76  57  78  59 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Baker



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