Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 272016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING SKIES IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THIS CWA IS LIMITED AND BEST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
COULD BE RATHER WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE APPROACHING TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
GREAT...SO WILL IGNORE THE WARMER GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL LEAD TO LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND WARMER TEMPS. H7 TEMPS ABOVE +10 COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
DIFFER ON ONE ISSUE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH THE OCCASIONAL SFC LOW. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND
FOR POPS FOR THE MOMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES.

SFC TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR KPIR/KATY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR KATY SO ADDED IN SOME VCTS.
WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KPIR AND KATY
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.