000
FXUS63 KABR 301725 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

INHERITED GRID PACKAGE STILL HAS GOOD GRASP ON CURRENT CONDS.
MINOR 700HPA IMPULSES DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MO RIVER VALLEY
RESPONSIBLE FOR FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS...BUT NO PCPN SEEN OR EXPECTED.
FCST HIGHS ALSO APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN TOP OF THE HOUR
OBSERVATIONS. NO ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A PAIR OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL TRANSLATE
INTO WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THUS...WE WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
VERY GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TOO STRONG A CAP FOR ANY WEAK
CONVECTION...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER
AMOEBIC...WHICH MEANS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY SEE A VERY SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHS/LOWS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GET DAMPENED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...AND THEREFORE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE JUST A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN