Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE AROUND 3-6 MILES IN SMOKE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION AS WELL OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. FARTHER WEST DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER WESTERN US RIDGE AIRMASS. EXPECT VISIBILITIES
REDUCED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL AFTER AROUND 8 TO 10 AM
CDT WHEN SOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...WITH HETTINGER
ALREADY DIPPING TO 54 DEGREES. MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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