Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







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