328
FXUS63 KBIS 111737
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today. Breezy winds
  could return to the north and James River Valley. An isolated
  shower or thunderstorm possible later today through this
  evening.

- Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, along with
  continued mild temperatures and less breezy winds.

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s possible across the
  northeast on Monday morning.

- Near average (highs mid to upper 60s and lows near 40)
  temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Northwest flow aloft this afternoon with mainly upper level
clouds moving south across the region. Models are still showing
an embedded S/WV moving through today, which may trigger a few
isolated showers/t-storms later today and this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The forecast for today remains on track. See below for further
discussion.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Little needing updating at this time. Mainly clear skies remain
across much of the CWA with some high clouds starting to filter
in across the north. Lows this morning in some of the clear
areas could be in the upper 30s, with most areas expected to be
in the 40s. Overall the forecast remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Surface low to the north will bring a breezy and warm westerly
flow today. The result will be mainly dry conditions,
temperatures warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and
increasing mid to high clouds from warm air advection. Winds
across the north and James River Valley could become breezy out
of the west today, although should remain below advisory
criteria. These winds combined with RH dropping into the 20s
could bring some increased fire weather concerns, although green
fuels will overall limit the fire weather threat. Later today
through this evening surface trough moves through along with a
weak cold front. This could be the focus for isolated showers
and thunderstorms during this time period. These would have to
overcome quite an abundant amount of dry air. Place in some
slight PoPs to account for these chances. There is enough
instability for some lightning and some gusty winds given an
inverted v sounding. This would highly depend on if more
developed storms can get going. Overall the severe weather
threat is low. Shower and thunderstorm activity look to diminish
after sunset tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Cooler northwest flow will be in place for
Sunday. Weak disturbances in this flow could still bring an
isolated shower and perhaps thunderstorm during the day and
evening hours. Instability looks quite limited for Sunday, thus
severe weather is not expected at this time. Temperatures will
slightly cool yet remain mild on Sunday. And winds will switch
to the north and be less breezy. Low afternoon RH is also
expected for Sunday, although the lighter winds and green fuels
should limit the fire weather threat. Sunday night then looks
generally dry. Cooler air from the north will bring overnight
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some northeastern areas may need
to be monitored for the potential of some patchy to areas of
frost.

Clusters still indicating a zonal to norther trough like pattern
for next week. This could bring near daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms along with near average temperatures. NBM PoPs
are currently highest to start the week and end the week, with a
brief lull during the middle of the week. This would support
some deterministic model guidance of a brief ridge moving
between two troughs. Clusters should timing of this to still be
uncertain, thus the lingering PoPs through the week. CSU-MLP
showing the first disturbance could perhaps bring an isolated
stronger storm to start the week, mainly in the southwest.
Shear values are modest, although instability is somewhat
lacking. Still something to monitor. Spreads in temperatures do
still remain large for next week given the uncertainty of the
timing in the two waves. There is however confidence in at least
near normal temperatures. If more ridging can build in, then
perhaps some slightly above normal temperatures are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions generally expected through the 18Z forecast
period. An isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm
is possible today, although confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light winds will become a
breezy westerly wind by this afternoon, diminishing this evening
and becoming more northerly Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...NH